Economic development and capability expansion in historical perspective

This paper is the text of a lecture given by the author at the Academic Conference on Charitable Services and Social Forces in History, at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, on 8 December 1999.     

The recent inflation in some historical perspective

Forum for Social Economics -     

Reciprocity and economics in historical perspective

There is now compelling evidence to suggest that people respond in kind to helpful or hostile behaviour, so much so that some have been led to suggest that the subject of economic behaviour is not so much homo economicus as homo reciprocans. This recent interest in the phenomenon of reciprocity is part of a wider (and very welcome) rethinking of the basic attributes of the economic actor. On the basis of this recent work, economic theorising has moved some distance from the traditional modern-economic approach—an approach that simply assumes a strategically rational, egotistical actor and develops elaborate theorems therefrom—and towards a richer, more complex conceptualisation of the economic actor and her acts. On revisiting a remarkably similar debate that took place some 250 years earlier, however, we wonder whether this re-conceptualisation has yet moved far enough.     

Trade balance and income in historical perspective

This paper develops a dynamic analysis of the trade balance to investigate the roles of supply and demand shocks. It also introduces global shocks in the analysis to take into account the comovement of income across countries. The results, based on the long-run historical data and a structural VAR analysis, show that, in the U.K., Australia, Canada, and Sweden, domestic and global supply shocks, while dominant causes in long-term and cyclical changes in output, are unimportant for the trade balance. The trade balance is explained mostly by shocks that cause transitory changes in income. Transitory income shocks cause income and the trade balance to move in opposite directions in all countries except Sweden. The countercyclical behavior of the trade balance seems to be a robust feature in the U.K. and Canada but not in the smaller economies of Australia and Sweden.This research was supported by a summer research grant from the Carol Martin Gatton College of Business and Economics at the University of Kentucky. The grant was made possible by a donation of funds to the College by Ashland Inc. I appreciate the Editor, two anonymous referees, Dick Gift and Mark Toma for their helpful suggestions. All remaining errors are mine.     

The neglect of comparison income: An historical perspective

Abstract

Theories of social comparison have a long presence in the social sciences and have provided many useful insights. In economics, the idea of comparison, aspiration or relative income belongs to this theoretical framework. The first systematic usages of this notion can be found in the works of Keynes and Duesenberry. After these works the concept was relatively ignored by orthodox theorists until its recent re-appearance, mainly in the fields of labour and macroeconomics. To the contrary, however, income comparisons continued to play a role in much of Keynesian inspired and non-mainstream economics literature. In the past few years it has made a strong comeback in the literature of job satisfaction and of the economics of happiness. This paper attempts to trace the development of the concept in the modern history of economic thought. It also discusses the main theoretical implications of adopting income comparisons and possible reasons for its relative disregard by orthodox economics.     

Price and quality changes in metal working machine tools

A dynamic optimal control model is constructed to study US dairy policy alternatives under bovine somatotropin (bST). The results indicate that the adoption of bST might be slower than that indicated by the early surveys. Even if adoption is widespread, the government can have the potentially large milk surplus problems under control with a combination of price support, generic milk advertising, and a cow buy-out. With bST adoption, the government would set lower support prices and would increase assesment for milk advertising, compared with the no-bST case. The higher adoption rates, the lower the support prices and the higher the advertising assesments. It is found that bST adoption is socially beneficial; consumers gain at the expense of producers. The government can, however, help produces by giving a larger policy weight to producers in setting the optimal levels of policy variables. Finally, it is found that the current levels of generic advertising are too low, and the allocation of advertising between fluid milk and manufactured products is not optimal.     

The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective

This paper analyses the sustainability of Portuguese public finances, making use of a long dataset with more than a full century of observations. The use of such a long dataset is appropriate because both the unit root and co-integration tests on which the sustainability testing procedure is based require a long period of data. We find considerable evidence in favor of sustainability for the 1903–2003 period which is not, however, maintained for the more recent 1975–2003 period, as it is characterized by the largest GDP deficit ratios of our sample. This latter period appears to signal a shift to an unsustainable path in Portuguese fiscal policy. Hence, our results suggest that fiscal consolidation efforts must, in fact, be continued in Portugal.Paper presented at the 2004 CESifo-LBI Conference on “Sustainability of Public Debt”, October 22–23 2004, Munich.     

The use of modeling tools for policy in evolutionary environments

This is a position paper on the possibilities of informing the (economic and environmental) policy debate by using quantitative evolutionary models. I argue that an evolutionary worldview implies that the existing quantitative modeling tools used for policy analysis are problematic. Then I summarize the main elements of an evolutionary way of analysis, and the way in which it can be incorporated into quantitative models. I conclude with an outline of a proposal for how to apply the ideas in the analysis of energy transitions.     

The deep historical roots of modern culture: A comparative perspective

This paper presents evidence showing that there have been since antiquity two opposed types of institutional systems: one resembling central planning and present in ancient China, ancient Egypt, the Inca Empire and other territorial states, and another one with strong market institutions, protection of property rights present mostly in city-states, not just in the Mediterranean but throughout the world. Evidence is presented that these institutional differences dating back to the antiquity are shaped by special geographical conditions. These institutional differences can be seen to be at the root of the two cultural systems in today's world: individualism and collectivism. These cultural differences have effects on economic performance and institutions in today's world.     

Wage formation in historical perspective: the French experience

Translator's note: In this article Robert Bayer introduces thenotion ‘regulation’ as a key concept in analysesof the labour market. The term refers to the balance of social,institutional and economic forces which characte rise at a particulartime the economic system as a whole or particular parts of it.I considered translating ‘regulation’ as ‘order’,‘regime’, ‘system’ or ‘formation’;but these terms are either too static or already bear inappropriateconnotations. It was therefore decided to retain the Frenchexpression in the English text.     

The evolution of a technological system: the case of CNC machine tools in Korea

Focusing on a product, this paper reconstructs the concept of technological systems first introduced by Carlsson and Stankiewicz (1991) in this Journal. Based on the model, we analyze the evolution process and performance of Korea's technological system for computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools as a catching-up case. The study shows that the length of 'learning period' for the system was substantial, even in a catching-up case. Especially, in the Korean case, the government played a 'macro-entrepreneurial' role in the molding of the technological system by giving legitimacy to the system, by mobilizing a nation-specific industrial organization of Chaebol system, and by enhancing the academia-industry-research institution links.JEL Classification: L52, L61, O30We thank two anonymous referees for very helpful comments and suggestions.Correspondence to: B. Carlsson     

Geography,land inequality and regional numeracy in Europe in historical perspective

We find a relationship between geographic factors and numeracy in more than 300 regions of Europe around the year 1900. We argue that the distribution of land ownership is a plausible mechanism, given that it is related to the geographic factors under study. Consistent with theoretical studies in the Unified Growth Theory framework, we find that inequality in land distribution has a negative correlation with human capital formation as landowners did not have incentives to promote educational institutions or were not willing to pay the necessary taxes. This study explains a substantial share of the differences in development gradients between rural European regions in a historical perspective.     

Technological similarity in national styles of innovation in a historical perspective

The paper examines some issues related to different styles of innovation in some advenced countries. The statistical work carried out is an attempt to answer the questerion: to what extent do countries' styles of innovation differ and how often do similarities arise? The issue of similarity/dissimilarity of countries' styles of innovation is investigated in the last 100 years for a group of selected countries. The evidence provided is based on a US patent database held at the University of Reading and countries' styles of innovation are measured with the use of the RTA index in four historical periods. The conclusions of the paper are consistent with the theory of national systems of innovation. Countries show very different styles of innovation and, what is more important, this difference is stable over time. However, a selected combination of similar countries occurs in every period, thus underlining the existence of regional groups. These regional groups are the only pairs of countries showing technological similarity historically.     

凤阳花鼓发展特征之历史追问

凤阳花鼓作为一种民间艺术,产生于劳动人民之中,属于典型的草根艺术,曾经在广大民众中广为流传,丰富了孕育它的这方沃土上的父老乡亲的文化生活,并以其独特的魅力丰富了我国民间舞蹈艺术。文章对凤阳花鼓的产生渊源、流播、演变、发展及现今状态进行历时性的纵向陈述,阐述凤阳花鼓艺术形式发展的某些特征。     

Evaluating latecomer growth in information technology: A historical perspective

From a low initial base it is not difficult for developing countries to close the relative digital divide with the developed countries. A more challenging and novel question is whether, because of leapfrogging and other latecomer advantages, developing countries have grown faster than developed from the same initial starting point. Or, is it the case rather that the disadvantages of being a latecomer exceed the advantages? Are there any pronounced outliers among the developing countries and what are their distinguishing characteristics? Using a number of methods and data sources I seek to answer these questions in a tentative but provocative manner.     

Content and method: an epistemic perspective on some historical episodes

The double contrast between allocation and process and between formal proof and empirically based reasoning is selectively applied to the history of economics. Hume's rejection of provable knowledge led to Smith's psychological explanation of science and thence to his theory of growth through the division of labour. Marshall's cautious theorizing and cognitively based evolutionary perspective stimulated contrasting responses from Sraffa and Young. Robinson matched method to content but Chamberlin did not, and Andrews's attempt to develop a process-based price theory met more resistance than Penrose's reinvention of growth theory. We currently observe conflicting methods of handling evolution and business strategy.