Morphology and creativity in technological forecasting1

Although the morphological approach to the exploration of technological possibilities was first described by Zwicky in 1962 in relation to jet engine systems and used by him as early as 1942, it has received less attention as a tool for creativity than it deserves. Jantsch in his classical review of technological forecasting attempted to establish interest in the methodology, referring to it as ‘a systematic investigation of all the possible solutions to a given problem, without any prejudice, using matrix representations in as many dimensions as there are basic parameters'. Since that time both he and a few others, notably Ayres have continued their interest in its application, dealing with problems in the fields of food production and materials processing. But less recognition has been given to the use of morphology as an everyday tool in the creative approach to simpler and less comprehensive technologies and it is a purpose of this paper to indicate how this can, and indeed should, be effected by those involved in R & D management and planning.     

A systematic approach to technological forecasting

Past attempts to rationalize the many methods of technological forecasting have not been sufficiently practical; they have largely been based on an abstract sort of classification while their use has been of an ad hoc nature. This paper reviews the position and puts forward a rationale leading to a more logical classification of methods and a systematic approach to their use in practice. The proposed classification and systematic use of the many methods is based on the concept that a technological forecast has four prime elements or dimensions, qualitative, quantitative, time and probability. Only when all these elements are provided can a technological forecast be responsibly used in decision making in R & D and corporate planning.     

The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: A comment

In an earlier paper in the SMJ, Armstrong (1982) conducted a review of the empirical evidence relating to the question of whether formal planning for strategic decision-making pays off, or more concisely whether strategic planning pays. Armstrong found that the evidence was equivocal. He also found that the methodological purity of a number of the 12 studies, which he claimed to constitute the totality of the evidence, was in doubt. For that reason he assessed the rigour of the studies relative to a framework previously proposed by Terpstra (1981). Using this framework he found that the studies rated poorly.     

The relationship between technology and science: Some historical and philosophical reflections. Part II

Dr Paul Gardner was appointed to the Faculty of Education at Monash University in 1967 and is currently a Reader in Education. After graduating from the University of Melbourne with a science degree and teacher qualifications in 1960, he taught physics and chemistry in high schools for six years. He obtained the M. Ed. degree from the University of Melbourne in 1970 for a thesis which involved experimental studies of concept attainment, and in 1972 completed a Ph.D. at Monash for an investigation of student and teacher characteristics which influence students' attitudes to physics. His major field of interest is science education, and he has published extensively on the assessment of cognitive and affective outcomes, the role of language in learning science and (his current major interest) the links between science and technology. He was a founding member of the university's Centre for Science, Mathematics and Technology Education in 1989. He is currently the Editor ofResearch in Science Education, the annual journal of the Australasian Science Education Research Association, of which he was a founding member in 1970. Early in 1993, he presented a paper on science-technology relationships at a UNESCO-sponsored conference in Jerusalem; a revised version of this paper is being published inStudies in Science Education in 1994. He teaches post-graduate courses on statistical analysis, attitude measurement, curriculum issues and science and technology education.     

The eye of the beholder: The influence of intuition,rationality, and leeway on the assessment of an Idea's market-creation potential

Paradoxically, mature firms facing competition in mature markets attempt to enter new markets, yet often pursue incremental ideas in their new product development process (NPD), abandoning ideas with market-creating potential in the idea evaluation phase at the fuzzy front end of NPD. We assume that idea evaluators' information-processing style (rational or intuitive) plays a dominant role in this context. Previous research has shown that the holistic information-processing style of intuitive individuals helps them with tasks that involve generating creative ideas, and we expect it to also be beneficial during idea evaluation for sensing an idea's potential to create new markets. In addition, we predict that the systematic procedure to be followed in formalized NPD idea evaluation will stifle this ability. Drawing on data from 138 corporate idea evaluators, we show that evaluators with an intuitive cognitive style are more likely to emphasize new market creation than those with a rational style, and that leeway serves as a moderator. By linking information-processing style and leeway we provide a potential explanation for why highly formalized organizations find it difficult to develop innovations with a high market-creation potential, and we discuss the practical implications of this.     

Supply chain management in industrial marketing–Relationships matter

The focal research topics in industrial marketing management have evolved significantly since IMM was first published in 1971. Part of this evolution has been the inclusion of research in supply chain management, which is the focus of this paper. The purpose of this paper is to assess themes across the classic articles in supply chain management (SCM) published in IMM, and explore how the field of SCM has evolved since their publication. A systematic literature review was used to assess SCM research in IMM, identify themes and publication patterns, and use these themes to assess gaps in extant research and opportunities for future research. Results of the literature review show that over 58% of the SCM research published in IMM has focused on buyer-supplier relationships and other purchasing and supply management topics. These will continue to be key topics in IMM. In addition, our literature review suggests opportunities for more SCM research in IMM around sustainability, logistics, and manufacturing innovation. These areas within the SCM umbrella are under-researched, yet yield significant opportunities for future research in a time of constant change within companies' distribution models.     

Cost benefit and public policy issues

Abstract
The paper reviews the work done and conclusions reached on resource allocation to R&D in the public sector in the last twenty years, and examines what changes have been made in the field of R&D assessment. The paper is based mainly on the author's experience with the UK government's Programmes Analysis Unit (PAU) which was set up in the early 1960s.
The Unit's main remit was to examine and disseminate techniques by the use of which the benefit to the nation from possible R&D strategies, programmes and projects might be calculated. It was also called in to help review policy and carry out long-range forecasting. In the course of its existence — it was wound up in 1977 — it analysed many new techniques of analysis which have now passed into common use and took part in studies to support decisions at all levels from the macro-economic sector down to the individual project.
The author lists the benefits derivable from such analyses — helping to identify objectives, assemble total programmes, evaluate efficiency of technological transfer, carry out technology assessment and so on. But he warns of their limitations.
As for the present day, the author is unhappy about the importance given by the UK Government to the market as a test of value in decision-making about R&D, in so far as it leads to neglect of long-term issues and relies on uncertain causal relationships among critical inputs. Cost-benefit is adequate for dealing with short-term, small-scale projects. For larger projects with controversial long-term implications he advocates broader-based techniques such as multi-attribute analysis, which bring the interests of many parties into the judgment and take into account considerations such as the environment, finite resources and social     

Use of partial least squares (PLS) in strategic management research: a review of four recent studies

Advances in causal modeling techniques have made it possible for researchers to simultaneously examine theory and measures. However, researchers must use these new techniques appropriately. In addition to dealing with the methodological concerns associated with more traditional methods of analysis, researchers using causal modeling approaches must understand their underlying assumptions and limitations. Most researchers are well equipped with a basic understanding of LISREL‐type models. In contrast, current familiarity with PLS in the strategic management area is low. The current paper reviews four recent studies in the strategic management area which use PLS. The review notes that the technique has been applied inconsistently, and at times inappropriately, and suggests standards for evaluating future PLS applications. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are Business Incubators Really Creating New Jobs by Creating New Businesses and New Products

This article examines the use of business incubators to enhance industrial innovation and new venture formation. Currently, the number of business incubators is rapidly growing. Yet, we have little solid evidence that such centers actually stimulate the growth and success of either innovations or new ventures. Gerald Udell examines incubators' resources and services in an effort to assess their potential impact. He conducted a survey of two hundred incubators and linked the results to a partial review of the literature to aid in the assessment of business incubators.     

Incentives for employed inventors: an empirical analysis with special emphasis on the German Law for Employee's Inventions

This paper evaluates the use of incentive systems in R&D to stimulate the motivation potential of R&D personnel. Special emphasis is given to the German Employee's Inventions Act, enacted in 1957 which is applicable to all enterprises under German law and provides guidelines for a mandatory compensation of employed inventors. The law's major content, its advantages and disadvantages are presented and discussed in detail. It is shown that the general consensus in industry is unfavourable to the German Act. A significant time lack between the invention and it's compensation, the lack of transparency of the compensation guidelines, the calculation of an adequate compensation level, and a high administrative effort of calculating the compensation are only some of the drawbacks of this law. The consequences of these problems are the encouragement of secrecy among R&D professionals and the negative impact on their individual motivation potential. We also report on an experiment that measures the individual preferences of R&D personnel for different incentive variables. The method of conjoint measurement is applied to this area, it's technique is described and assessed. It is found that different segments of respondents with different preferences exist. The empirical findings also indicate the need to increase the flexibility of existing incentive systems in German industry.     

Indian business groups: Evolution and transformation

Business groups are an important constituent of many emerging economies. In this paper, we focus on the evolution and transformation of Indian business groups (IBGs) over two economic eras — pre-reform era (pre 1991) and reform era (post 1991). To this end, we analyze IBG behavior during these periods, and explain the implications of such behavior on IBG value creation. Our conceptualization of IBG dynamics utilizes the perspectives of product relatedness and institutional relatedness, and undertakes a broad review of the extant literature.

A retrospective study on the regional benefits and spillover effects of high-speed broadband networks: Evidence from German counties

This study aims to assess the economic benefits of high-speed broadband within and across neighboring counties in Germany. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset of 401 German counties with data from 2010 to 2015 as well as different panel estimation techniques, we find that an increase in average broadband speed has a significantly positive effect on regional GDP in the average German county. Furthermore, we find that broadband deployment in German counties induces not only substantial economic benefits in terms of direct effects within counties but also positive regional externalities across counties. According to our estimation results, an increase in average bandwidth speed by one unit (1 Mbit/s) induces a rise in regional GDP of 0.18%. This effect is almost doubled if we also take regional externalities into account (0.31%). Moreover, we find that regional agglomeraton effects are of particular relevance for rural counties. Our cost-benefit analysis of subsidies based on conservative estimates suggests efficiency gains, as the total economic per capita benefits (€164) of subsidy programs to encourage broadband expansion exceeded their associated per capita costs (€114).     

The Measurement of Firm Information About Product Demand

The role of firm information about product and financial markets is the subject of considerable research. Typically empirical research measures information through price dispersion. However, the dispersion represents an imperfect measure of information. Several studies utilize stochastic frontier estimation techniques to measure worker information about the labor market. This paper determines whether the frontier information measure can be applied to the measurement of firm information about product markets. Several intuitive hypotheses are tested concerning the relationship between firm characteristics and information investments. The results are consistent with expectations and provide support for using stochastic frontier techniques to measure firm information.     

QUANTIFYING MARKET POWER IN THE GERMAN WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY MARKET USING A DYNAMIC MULTI‐REGIONAL DISPATCH MODEL*

This paper quantifies the degree of market power in the German wholesale electricity market. A dispatch model simulates competitive marginal costs. In addition to common input factors like plant capacities, fuel prices and load structures, the model also incorporates international power exchange and dynamic effects like start‐up costs and hydro storage plant dispatch. The simulated prices are subsequently used as a benchmark for observed electricity prices. The analysis reveals significant market power in the German electricity market, mainly exhibited during peak periods. Producer surplus is also increased significantly due to strategic behavior.     

Reciprocal value propositions in practice: Constraints in digital markets

The value proposition concept, while forming a central foundational premise of service-dominant (S-D) logic, has nevertheless been treated somewhat ambiguously. Recent work in attempting to address this has focused through a S-D logic lens on the reciprocal nature of value propositions. Important to this work has been a focus on communicative interactions and resource integration between network suppliers and customers. Overall, value proposition thinking has not studied in detail their adoption and use in practice. Considering the compelling notion of reciprocity, there have been recent calls for research to consider reciprocal value propositions in practice. The overall aim of this paper, therefore, was to explore how reciprocal value propositions are developed (or not) in practice at the network level. The study was set in the mobile television (TV) sector, which, as an internet-driven sector, is viewed as particularly pertinent. To conduct the study an S-D logic and Industrial Marketing and Purchasing (IMP) Group framework are integrated for the first time. A key finding is that while the reciprocal value proposition concept is theoretically intuitive, it is by no means inevitable in practice. Reciprocal value propositions were found to be simultaneously constrained, and, potentially enabled by these constraints in practice. At an overall level this paper contributes to the ongoing collaborative process, which aims to move S-D logic from a framework to a theory. More specifically, we provide new insights into the development of reciprocal value propositions in practice.     

The Erosion of the German System of Industrial Relations

The paper assesses current trajectories of change in the German system of industrial relations by analysing the co-determination and collective bargaining systems. It argues that two parallel developments undermine the institutional stability of the German model. First, the institutional base of the German industrial relations system, which has served as the pre-condition of its past success, has been shrinking during the last two decades. This is due to a decline in coverage by the two major industrial relations institutions: the works council system and wage agreements. Today fewer than 15 per cent of German plants are covered by both a valid collective agreement and a works council. Second, increasing decentralization pressures within collective bargaining tend to undermine the division of labour between co-determination and collective bargaining. The dynamics of an institutional erosion of the German industrial relations institutions and the decentralization of collective bargaining disturbs the fine-tuning of the mediating process between macroeconomic steering capacity and co-operative workplace industrial relations. This tendency has been aggravated by the effects of German unification. The current institutional developments of the German industrial relations system leave serious doubts about the future of a successful model of co-operative modernization.     

Consequential creativity

Creativity is an original cognitive ability and problem solving process which enables individuals to use their intelligence in a way that is unique and directed toward coming up with a product. Architectural education is one of the fields in which human creativity has been exhibited; because, it can be defined as a design study that correlates with other disciplines: social sciences, management, history, operational research, philosophy, graphic design, math and etc. These features which distinguish architecture from other disciplines ascribe different kind of responsibilities for architectural education; since beside technical and professional skills, an architect must have imagination and to be creative at many levels. Thus, this research aims at proving that students can be trained in creative thinking via acquiring specific skills and systematic techniques, which directly acts on design product. The study methodology depends on the concept of experimental research that targets at exposing students to creative problem solving experience via carrying out a creative training course that concerns “Consequential Creativity”. That experiment examined the potentiality of enhancing the students’ ability of viewing problems in non-traditional perspectives that counts on the systematic procedures of problem solving. Tools for assessment before and after training have been implemented. The Experiment findings proved that the students’ creative thinking skill has been clearly improved after attending the course. Therefore, training in creative thinking can be considered as independent courses or within specific architectural curricula.     

Ukrainian gas transit game

This paper investigates the origins and reasons for the termination of the Russian natural gas flow from Russia to Europe through Ukraine in January 2009. It discusses the strategic interaction of the three players (Russia, Ukraine and the European Union) based on the dynamics of losses from confrontation. The objective is to interpret the situation in a stylized way and to derive outcomes using calibrated parameters for costs and benefits of the players. We show that the stakes are high for both Russia and Ukraine in choosing to follow their preferred strategies, as both countries would sustain moderate losses during the initial period of conflict. Meanwhile, Europe’s lack of reserves makes it less prepared for the energy deficit than Ukraine and Russia, causing wider and earlier suffering for European countries dependent on Russian gas. Therefore, the European Union has a strong incentive to intervene in the conflict. Its actions during the January confrontation between Ukraine and Russia included extortion and bribery, all of which affected the outcome of the conflict.