An empirical analysis of corporate debt maturity structure

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the maturity structure of corporate debt. A dynamic model is estimated by GMM estimation procedure using data for an unbalanced panel of 429 non-financial UK firms over the period of 1983–96. The evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses that firms with more growth opportunities in their investment sets tend to have more shorter-term debt and firm size exerts a negative impact on debt maturity structure. The results also support the maturity-matching hypothesis that firms match the maturity structure of their debt to the maturity of their assets. There is less support for the view that firms use their debt maturity structure to signal information to the market. We do not find evidence for a negative correlation between taxes and debt maturity. Our results also suggest that firms have long-term target ratios and they adjust to the target ratio relatively fast, which might indicate that the costs of being away from target ratios are significant for firms.     

Bank acquisition of mortgage firms and stockholders' wealth: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the behavior of the returns on the securities of bank holding companies (BHCs) acquiring mortgage firms after the announcement of such an acquisition and the release of the Federal Reserve Board's decision. The stockholders of acquiring BHCs do not realize abnormal returns following the announcement of the acquisition of a mortgage firm. This reconfirms previous findings in unregulated industries and is consisten with the hypothesis that any economic rent which is generated by such an acquisition is captured by the acquired mortgage firm: This implies that there exist BHCs — other than the acquiring one — that could also affect a profitable merger with the mortgage firm. Another finding is that stockholders of BHCs that were 3enied permission to acquire mortgage firms sustained significant losses during the five weeks following the Board's decision.     

Martingales and efficient forecasts of effective mortgage rates

Economic theory and empirical evidence indicate that the optimal near-term forecast of a long-term rate is (approximately) today's rate; the no-change model should provide excellent near-term forecasts of a long-term rate. This article estimates the longest forecast horizon over which no-change predictions of each of three mortgage-related interest rates pass a series of quality tests. The empirical results reject the optimality of no-change predictions of the one-year Treasury bill rate for all forecast horizons. Since October 1979, the tests support the hypothesis that no-change predictions of the 30-year conventional home mortgage and GNMA rates are optimal for forecast horizons of up to three-quarters-ahead.     

An empirical analysis of continuing improvements following the implementation of a performance-based compensation plan

Performance improvements subsequent to the implementation of a pay-for-performance plan can result because more productive employees self-select into the firm (selection effect) and because employees allocate effort to become more effective (effort effect). We analyze individual performance data for 3,776 sales employees of a retail firm to evaluate these alternative sources of continuing performance improvement. The incentive plan helps the firm attract and retain more productive sales employees, and motivates these employees to further improve their productivity. In contrast, the less productive sales employees’ performance declines before they leave the firm.     

Nonparametric Estimation of a Multifactor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model: An Integrated Approach

We propose a new nonparametric estimator for the volatilitystructure of the zero-coupon yield curve inside the Heath-Jarrow-Mortonframework. The estimator incorporates cross-sectional restrictionsalong the maturity dimension, and also allows for measurementerrors, which can arise from estimation of the yield curve fromnoisy data. The estimates are implemented with daily CRSP bonddata.     

Under-specified Models and Detection of Discrimination: A Case Study of Mortgage Lending

This study examines how omitted variables affect underwriting models the OCC estimates during fair lending examinations. The purpose is to assess the effects of omitted variable bias common to most studies of discrimination in mortgage lending. The results show omitted variables have an important impact on both the estimate of the effect of race and on the identification of outliers for review. Further, there appears to be no consistent patterns to the direction of these impacts. This suggests that it is inappropriate to make generalizations concerning the direction of bias based on assumptions about correlations between omitted variables and race.     

An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China

The residential mortgage market becomes a financial engine for the booming residential housing development and sustained economic growth in China. Our study provides the first rigorous empirical analysis on the earlier performance of residential mortgage market in China based on a unique micro dataset of mortgage loan history collected from a major residential mortgage lender in China. We found that while the option theory fails to explain prepayment and default behavior in the residential mortgage market in China, other non-option theory related financial economic factors play major roles in determining the prepayment and default risks in China. We also found that borrower’s characteristics are significant in determining prepayment behavior, hence may be used as an effective tool for screening potential high risk borrowers in the loan origination process. Adopting a risk-based pricing in residential mortgage lending in China can improve the efficiency of the market, and enhance the credit availability to the most needed households, i.e., the younger households, blue-collar workers, lower income households, and help them become homeowners.     

Privatization and globalization: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the link between globalization-measured by foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) – and privatization of state-owned enterprises, in a multi-country sample that focuses on developing countries. We hypothesize that privatization has an effect on FDI/FPI as the process of fostering private sector participation is often accompanied by liberalization reforms, and by allocations of substantial shares of newly privatized firms to foreign investors. Similarly, we expect FDI/FPI to foster privatization efforts as new capital inflows, technology and managerial skills that accompany FDI/FPI make the environment more prone to competition, providing governments with incentives to privatize inefficient firms that need to be turned around. This relation is assessed in two ways, first in a dynamic panel using a generalized method of moments approach, and second through panel causality tests. We find a bi-directional positive relation between privatization proceeds and globalization, particularly in the case of FDI.     

The Hazard Rates of First and Second Defaults

This article examines hazards of repeated mortgage default, conditional on reinstating out of an initial default episode. Results indicate that subsequent default risk for reinstated borrowers is significantly greater than the risk of first default, especially during the first two years after a default episode. In addition, economic factors helpful in predicting first defaults are not helpful in predicting subsequent default episodes. This has important implications for mortgage investors and servicers as industry foreclosure avoidance efforts intensify.     

Bias in estimates of discrimination and default in mortgage lending: The effects of simultaneity and self-selection

The common practices of estimating single-equation models of mortgage rejection to test for discrimination in mortgage markets or single-equation ex ante mortgage default equations to validate underwriting criteria produce biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This is due to problems of simultaneous equations bias which arise because, in a world of imperfect information, mortgage terms are not exogenous to the rejection or default decision. In addition, mortgage default estimates are also subject to selection bias. Monte Carlo experiments are used to study the nature and extent of likely bias in single-equation estimation results. We find that rejection equation estimates indicate discrimination when none exists and that estimated coefficients of mortgage terms, such as the loan-to-value ratio, are also subject to significant bias in both rejection and default equations.     

The real impact of a one-off fiscal restriction: empirical evidence of a flypaper effect in Flemish municipalities

This paper analyses the effects of a one-off fiscal restriction on Flemish local government spending. The authors provide evidence of a ‘flypaper effect’: fiscal restriction stimulated the sensitivity of local spending to grants. This means that higher-level governments (regional/national/supranational) need to take a flypaper effect into account when considering one-off fiscal restrictions on lower-level governments.     

An empirical analysis of marginal conditional stochastic dominance

Stochastic dominance is a more general approach to expected utility maximization than the widely accepted mean–variance analysis. However, when applied to portfolios of assets, stochastic dominance rules become too complicated for meaningful empirical analysis, and, thus, its practical relevance has been difficult to establish. This paper develops a framework based on the concept of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance (MCSD), introduced by Shalit and Yitzhaki (1994), to test for the first time the relationship between second order stochastic dominance (SSD) and stock returns. We find evidence that MCSD is a significant determinant of stock returns. Our results are robust with respect to the most popular pricing models.     

An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices

We explore the ability of alternative popular continuous-time diffusion and jump-diffusion processes to capture the dynamics of implied volatility indices over time. The performance of the various models is assessed under both econometric and financial metrics. To this end, data are employed from major European and American implied volatility indices and the rapidly growing CBOE volatility futures market. We find that the addition of jumps is necessary to capture the evolution of implied volatility indices under both metrics. Mean reversion is of second-order importance though. The results are consistent across the various metrics, markets, and construction methodologies.     

Traditional and emergent theories of budgeting: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the usefulness of both traditional and emergent budgeting theories to understanding budget-related behavior in a state geriatic system. The authors used an action-research methodology to acquire evidence. They conclude that the traditional and emergent theories offer differing insights into budgetary behavior and suffer from different shortcomings. Implications for researchers and practitioners are explored.     

基于面板模型的中国国债风险溢价实证研究

该研究采用面板模型实证分析了2003年12月至2008年4月上海证券交易所债券市场国债风险溢价与利率期限结构及宏观经济变量的关系。实证结果显示,上期利率期限结构曲线越陡峭,当期国债风险溢价越高;上期通货膨胀水平越高,当期国债风险溢价越高,而再延长一期滞后期,会发现滞后第二期的通货膨胀水平与当期国债风险溢价存在显著负关系;货币供应同比增速增加时,国债风险溢价水平降低。     

Termination of distressed residential mortgages: An empirical analysis

A sample of 209 distressed mortgages is used to analyze the terminations of distressed mortgages. An option-based model is compared to a traditional default model. Results show that the traditional model is statistically superior. However, the model's ability to identify a default is similar to that of the simpler option-based model. Alternative measures of borrower's equity are compared. Measuring borrower's equity using total debt more accurately explains default than using either the mortgage balance or the mortgage value.     

An empirical analysis of Mexican and US closed-end mutual fund IPOs

We examine 135 Mexican closed-end fund IPOs and 370 Mexican non-fund IPOs that issued between 1994 and 2003 along with 217 contemporaneous US fund IPOs and document three primary results. First, we find that Mexican IPOs in the aggregate experience no significant underpricing, unlike their US IPO counterparts. Both Mexican and US IPOs experience significantly negative long-run performance. Second, Mexican closed-end fund IPOs experience positive long-run performance, significantly better than Mexican non-fund IPOs which experience negative long-run performance. Unlike Mexican fund IPOs, US fund IPOs experience negative long-run performance. Third, we find that both Mexican and US debt-backed closed-end fund IPOs significantly outperform equity-backed closed-end IPOs. In Mexico, debt-backed funds experience positive abnormal returns, compared to negative abnormal returns for Mexican equity-backed funds, US debt-backed funds, and US equity-backed funds.     

An empirical analysis of organized crime,corruption and economic growth

In a companion study, Blackburn et al. (Econ Theory Bull, 2017), we have developed a theoretical framework for studying interactions between organized crime and corruption, with the view of examining the combined effects of these phenomena on economic growth. The analysis therein illustrates that organized crime has a negative effect on growth, but that the magnitude of the effect may be either enhanced or mitigated in the presence of corruption. In this paper we tackle the ambiguity produced by the coexistence of the two illicit activities with an empirical investigation using a panel of Italian regions for the period 1983–2009. We find that organized crime distorts growth less when it coexists with corruption and show our results to be robust to different specifications, measures of organized crime, and estimation techniques.     

Home Bias in Emerging Bond and Stock Markets

In this paper, we empirically examine sizes and sources of home bias in both bond and equity markets for twenty emerging countries and twenty-two developed countries over the 2001-11 sample period. The average size of home bias in both bond and stock markets is found to be much larger in emerging countries than in developed countries. Using the explanatory variables in two categories of economic development and market performance, we employ dynamic panel data regression models to analyze major sources of home bias. The main results are the following: First, market performance factors generally affect home bias more strongly than do economic development factors. Second, market factors including market return, volatility, and liquidity support various hypotheses under informational asymmetries, such as return chasing, risk aversion, and flight to quality. Third, among macroeconomic factors, it is shown that real gross domestic product growth has negative effects and country leverage has positive effects on a specific home bias, backing up the size-bias and the flight-to-quality hypotheses, respectively. Finally, and perhaps most important in this paper, the effect of bond market performance on equity home bias is found to be significantly stronger than the effect of equity market performance on bond home bias from the market interaction model estimation, suggesting that a policy design needs to begin with increasing bond market efficiency to reduce equity market home bias.     

关于贸易和汇率间相互引导关系的实证分析及启示

针对在我国究竟是贸易引导汇率和资本流动,还是汇率引导贸易和资本流动这一争议,文章采用计量分析的方式进行了实证检验。实证结果显示,在这三个变量中,贸易差额居于至关重要的地位,其变化引导着人民币汇率变动和跨境资本流动。因此,要缓解我国资本流入的压力,保持人民币在合理水平上的基本均衡,必须从根本上加快转变经济发展方式,减少经济发展对“净出口”的依赖,实现进出口贸易的基本平衡,同时加快推进资本项目可兑换,便利企业“走出去”进行全球投资,并加快推进汇率形成机制改革。