通胀预期、政策博弈与货币政策的优化操作

该文通过对Kydland—Prescott方程的改进,结合我国实际,构建适合我国国情的货币政策博弈模型,对不同信息结构下,中央银行和经济主体间的动态博弈过程进行具体分析。在此基础上,就货币政策的优化分析了我国实施通胀目标制的可行性。研究发现：稳定的通胀预期可以提高货币政策的有效性,降低货币政策的实施成本;中央银行采用机会主义获得的短期效用不能持久,反而导致通胀预期的不稳定,对经济的危害更大。最后,该文对货币政策的优化操作提出了相关的政策建议。     

中央银行的独立性、政策信誉与通货膨胀目标制

通货膨胀目标制作为一种新兴的货币政策框架，近年来备受推崇。实行通货膨胀目标制国家的一个显著特点是大都实施了加强中央银行独立性的改革。本文依据不同的方法测算出实行通货膨胀目标制国家的中央银行独立性指数，分析了通货膨胀目标制框架下中央银行独立性加强与政策信誉之间的关系。     

我国向通货膨胀目标制过渡的政策建议

通货膨胀目标制作为我国缓解通货膨胀问题的有效手段,为稳定我国金融市场发挥着至关重要的作用。现阶段,我国尚未完全实行通货膨胀目标制,究其原因在于我国现行金融市场中还存在着一系列制约实行通货膨胀目标制的因素,即货币币值、中央银行的独立性、价格指数、货币政策工具以及金融体系。基于此本文提出了相关政策建议用来抑制通货膨胀。     

通胀预期与货币政策的优化操作

本文通过对Kydland-Prescott方程的改进,结合我国实际,构造适合我国国情的货币政策博弈模型,对不同信息结构下中央银行和经济主体间的动态博弈过程进行具体分析。在此基础上,就货币政策的优化分析了我国实施通胀目标制的可行性。研究发现:稳定的通胀预期可以提高货币政策的有效性,降低货币政策的实施成本;其次中央银行采用机会主义获得的短期效用不能持久,反而导致通胀预期的不稳定,对经济的危害更大。最后,本文对货币政策的优化操作提出了相关的政策建议。     

信息不完全、通货膨胀目标制与货币政策声誉:跨国经验

20世纪90年代以来通行的通货膨胀目标制被认为是极具透明性、灵活性的货币政策框架，受到很多国家的推崇。本文验证通货膨胀目标制是否有助于建立货币政策声誉，构建一个基于信息不完全基础上的动态预期形成模型，通过对通货膨胀目标制能否引起结构性变化的七个发达国家的实证研究，发现政策声誉的建立是一个学习过程。通货膨胀目标制实行的时间越长，该政策对降低通货膨胀率，实现经济稳定增长越有效。     

通货膨胀目标制理论及对我国货币政策的启示

20世纪90年代，世界各国货币政策实践出现了一个重要变化——通货膨胀目标制的兴起。自1990年3月新西兰率先采用以来，已先后有加拿大、英国、墨西哥等20余国采用了该政策，并且都取得了较好的效果。此外，从90年代中后期开始，在一些非采用国（例如美国、日本等）对它的讨论一直是经济学界以及经济政策界的热点之一。近年来，在对我国货币政策框架的前瞻性研讨中，它也正逐渐为人所瞩目。     

通胀高压下的政策抉择

货币政策后期如何调整,还需要观望下“政策敏感期”的外围反应,再作具体判断。     

周小川：可能出台更强硬政策抑通胀

油价上调后,中国人民银行行长周小川在美国纽约表示,为了对付上调燃油价格可能会加剧通货膨胀的局面,央行可能会制定“更有力”的政策。但他并没有透露将会具体动用何种政策工具。     

泰国的反通货膨胀目标制及其对我国的启示

本文通过对泰国中央银行货币政策目标变化的分析,揭示了泰国银行实施反通货膨胀目标制的深刻原因,并且简要介绍了泰国银行反通货膨胀目标制的具体内容.泰国中央银行采用反通货膨胀目标制实际上是以经济的内部均衡为主,并以汇率政策作为解决一国经济外部失衡的主要政策工具,这种政策取向对我国经济发展具有借鉴意义.     

经济政策不确定性、投资者情绪与并购绩效

基于A股2007—2023年上市公司并购数据进行实证分析,探究经济政策不确定性对于企业并购绩效的影响机理。结果表明,经济政策不确定性对于企业并购绩效产生负面影响,并在纳入投资者情绪调节因子后显著增强负面效应。进一步研究发现,经济政策不确定性对于企业并购绩效的影响在经济上行时期更为显著,且对于非机构投资者集中持股的企业产生更大的冲击,但该机制对绿色并购以及属于一线或新一线城市的企业影响较小。     

Inflation Targeting as a Coordination Device

The paper analyses inflation targeting when two independent policy authorities (a central bank and a National Government) have divergent preferences for the optimal policy mix. We demonstrate that the main advantage of inflation targeting, as a policy regime, is that it represents a simple proxy for full coordination between policy authorities. Inflation targeting therefore helps because it reduces the conflicts between fiscal and monetary policy, expecially where there are strong spillovers between the two policies. These results are then tested, and largely validated, in a simulation framework using a small open economy calibrated model.     

Inflation targeting in Indonesia, 1999–2012: an ex-post review

Around the end of 1999, Bank Indonesia (BI) adopted inflation targeting as part of its approach to monetary policy. This article reviews the experience up to 2012, examines BI's performance in hitting its inflation targets and considers certain broader indicators of success. Overall, inflation targeting in Indonesia has been a messy, evolutionary process, and BI's implementation record compares unfavourably with that of its peers. Yet Indonesia recorded a significant downward trend in inflation during this period and maintained strong economic growth. Also, almost all of its inflation-targeting arrangements are now in line with common international practice. Looking ahead, this article offers suggestions for sustaining progress in inflation targeting, such as setting more ambitious targets in the outer years and implementing strong policies to reduce inflation further, including after large administrative price shocks.     

Low Inflation,Pass-through,and a Discrete Inflation-targeting Framework for Monetary Policy in China

The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation pass-through accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions? We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy,which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.     

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

In this paper we address the issue whether a switch to inflation targeting can help build monetary policy credibility and can substitute for a track record of low inflation. To this end, we empirically evaluate the success of inflation targeting in Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and investigate to what extent the joint dynamic processes of inflation and nominal interest rates in these three countries have experienced a structural break at the time of the regime switch to inflation targeting. The experience of Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom is matched with the United States, Australia and Germany. We find that the effectiveness of the direct inflation targeting approach to quickly increase low-inflation credibility so far is ambiguous and that this strategy is not clearly superior to intermediate monetary strategies.     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

"通胀目标法"在日本的争议

近年来，在日本国内围绕着应否采用“通胀目标法”一直展开着激烈的争议，研究和分析日本型“通胀目标法”的内容及实质，可期为我国在对“通胀目标法”这一新事物的研讨提供一个新视角。     

中国选择货币政策中介目标的探讨

研究开放经济条件下的现行货币供应量中介目标的有效性及中介目标的选择问题是我国当前需要解决的问题。通过结合中国开放经济背景,深刻分析影响中国货币供应量中介目标有效性的因素以及开放条件下中介目标的选择问题即分析利率与通货膨胀目标制在中国的适用性。     

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Targets: Are Australia,Canada, and New Zealand Different from the U.S.?

Outwardly, the central banks of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. follow somewhat different approaches to controlling inflation. The U.S. does not explicitly target inflation while the other countries do. Canada and New Zealand have target bands for inflation while Australia has a point target. Results in this paper nevertheless find broad similarities in the monetary policies of these countries. Each can be described as having pursued optimal inflation targeting (explicit or implicit), with heavy interest rate smoothing, but perhaps placing little weight on output variability. We argue that interest rate smoothing is used to introduce gradualism into the response of monetary policy to inflation. We show that given heavy interest rate smoothing, a concern for output variability is redundant.