Analysis of the 1980 Sydney Survey of Work Patterns of Married Women: Further Results*

Using cross-section data from the 1980 Sydney survey of the work patterns of married women, this paper contributes to the very scarce Australian stock of disaggregate econometric studies of the labour market activities of married women. Labour force participation, hours of work and wage functions (reservation wage as well as market wage) are estimated in a second-generation static labour supply framework. Unique features of the study include the availability of direct data on previous market experience, a formulation of the impact of children on the participation decision which permits testing for the presence of economies of scale in child-minding activities, estimation of the reservation wage function, and a data base which permits a clear distinction between earnings and other forms of income.     

An Efficiency Enhancing Minimum Wage

We consider an economy with a tax on all labor earnings. We discover that a slightly binding minimum wage on one sector can enhance efficiency. The minimum wage attracts high‐reservation wage workers into the minimum‐wage sector. If the labor demand curve in the free sector is quite flat, the vast majority of workers displaced by the minimum wage find employment in the free sector, raising aggregate employment. This displacement of workers by the only slightly binding minimum wage has negligible effects on efficiency. So efficiency and tax revenue rise as the minimum wage pulls labor out of untaxed leisure, where too much of the labor force is lurking, into taxed work.     

Employment Protection Versus Flexicurity: On Technology Adoption in Unionised Firms*

We analyse how different labour‐market institutions – employment protection versus ‘flexicurity’– affect technology adoption in unionised firms. We consider trade unions’ incentives to oppose or endorse labour‐saving technology and firms’ incentives to invest in such technology. Increased flexicurity – interpreted as less employment protection and a higher reservation wage for workers – unambiguously increases firms’ incentives for technology adoption. If unions have some direct influence on technology, a higher reservation wage also makes unions more willing to accept technological change. Less employment protection has the opposite effect, as this increases the downside (job losses) of labour‐saving technology.     

The impact of taxes on female labour supply

There is little agreement in economics on the factors influencing labour supply and hence on the impact of taxes. Within the marginal model, real wages and incomes are directing people's labour market behaviour independent of time and space, whereas the human resources approach takes account of the social environment and past behaviour. Even if strong assumptions are made, the neoclassical theory cannot predict the outcome of a wage increase. The labour supply response depends on the relative strengths of the substitution and the income effect. Since nonparticipation in the labour market is explained by a reservation wage being higher than the market wage, this is the only situation in which neoclassical theory would predict a rise in labour force participation with a wage increase. This case occured in a ‘natural experiment’ in Sweden. The Swedish tax system changed in 1971 from joint to separate taxation of spouses resulting in a substantial increase in the net wage of married women. This article investigates the impact of the change in the Swedish tax system on female labour force participation, concluding that it cannot explain the substantial rise in the participation rates of Swedish women. This is a significant result, questioning standard neoclassical theory and supporting the more institutional views of human labour market behaviour. That is that time and space as well as the social environment are important when analyzing labour supply. This will have consequences for international comparisons. Only factors which explain developments within one country might be relevant for explaining international differences, e.g. in labour force participation.     

Family labour force participation: Multinomial logit estimates

Studies of labour force participation choices are mostly aimed at explaining determinants of participation for individuals. The objective of this study is the empirical estimation of the parameters of family participation decisions.

Family participation decisions can be analysed as a choice problem of a family between a finite number of distinct alternatives. The appropriate estimation procedure for a model involving choice among multiple discrete alternatives requires a statistical technique different from ordinary least squares. In this study I use the multinomial logit model. A logit model allows me to explain the probability that a particular participation alternative will be chosen by a family as a function of a set of independent variables.

It is found that economic variables such as wage rates and wealth, play a significant role in affecting the probabilities of choosing a particular labour force participation alternative. This study shows that an increase in the market wage for a family member not only increases the probability of labour force participation for that family member, but at the same time also reduces the probability of participation for his or her partner. Hence there is both a pure and a cross-substitution effect in participation. There is also an income effect. As wealth increases families will, in some sense, buy more leisure. Furthermore, they will allocate the extra leisure in a certain order: it is found in this study that the wife's probability of participation reduces sooner and faster than the husband's probability, as wealth increases.     

Risk-sharing and Growth: The Role of Precautionary Savings in the "Education" Model

While the "risk amelioration" literature suggests that risk-sharing channels savings into risky but productive technologies and hence favours growth, models focused on precautionary savings reverse this conclusion. We solve, by means of numerical techniques, a model based on human capital accumulation through education, and find that the increase in precautionary savings makes labour more productive in the goods sector and draws resources from education, which is the "growth leading" activity. Hence, we establish a result favourable to financial integration, even in a model where precautionary savings play an important role.     

Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution taking into account the precautionary savings motive

This paper estimates the elasticity of intertemporal substitution for U.S. aggregate time series data, taking into account the precautionary savings motive. By making use of a recursive utility function, we estimate an Euler equation, via GMM. This procedure leads consumption growth rate to depend on asset returns, and on a time-varying variance, which captures the precautionary motive. When significant, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution estimates ranges from 0.4 to 1.8, which are higher than most of the results found in the literature. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that consumers react to risk; however, the contribution of precautionary motive to consumption growth seems to be limited.     

Looking for the workforce: the elderly,discouraged workers,minorities, and students in the Baltic labour markets

This paper looks at the evolution of the labour markets in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania since the beginning of transition until 2003, with a particular focus on labour force participation. How did labour supply in the Baltic countries respond to changes in minimum wages, unemployment benefits and retirement regulation? Do the marked differences in labour market policies between the countries result in different patterns of participation? What are the obstacles to and driving forces of participation? We find that relative contribution of participation and demographic trends to the dynamics of the labour force varied substantially both over the years and across the three countries. Participation, in turn, has been shaped by sometimes complicated interactions between schooling decisions of the youth, retirement, policy changes, and external shocks. Resulting differences in trends and patterns are quite substantial, indicating that there is a room for increasing participation in each of the countries. Panel data analysis of determinants of participation and discouragement based on labour force survey data suggests that increasing after-tax real minimum wage has significant positive effects on participation and reduces discouragement in Lithuania. In Estonia, by contrast, a positive effect of minimum wage on participation is found only for teenagers of both genders and for young males. We do not find any evidence that partner’s wage has a negative effect on participation. Ethnic minorities, especially females, in all three Baltic countries are less likely to be in the labour force, other things equal.     

The determinants of female labour supply in Hungary

The aim of this paper is to closely examine the effect on a married woman's labour supply decision of non-labour income and of her own wage rate in a transition economy. The paper first shows that labour force participation rates for Hungarian females, though decreasing, were still extremely high and comparable to male economic activity in western countries. It then estimates labour supply parameters using a model that controls for sample selection issues associated with the labour supply of married women. Wage elasticity is estimated to be high and positive (1.81) while the income effect is consistent with leisure being a normal good. No sample selection bias is found.     

Wage arrears uncertainty and precautionary saving in Russia1

Wage arrears are widespread in Russia, and are one of the main causes of uncertainty in the labour market. In this paper, we use the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey over the period 1994–98 to construct a new and improved measure of household income risk, based on the uncertainty due to wage arrears. We then use this measure of uncertainty to test the precautionary saving hypothesis, according to which households save to self‐insure against risk. We find significant evidence of additional saving by those households whose head is more likely to suffer from wage arrears one year hence. This suggests the existence of a strong precautionary saving motive.     

Labour mobility during transitionEvidence from Georgia1

This article deals with labour mobility in Georgia during economic transition. We use quarterly 1998–99 panel data to examine mobility across six labour market statuses (inactivity, unemployment, formal wage employment, informal wage employment, self‐employment and farming). Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of labour market segmentation. Formal employment is preferred to informal employment. Unemployment is largely a queuing device for individuals with higher education waiting for formal jobs. Some self‐employment is subsistence activities and consistent with a segmented labour market, while other is high risk and potentially high return activities. Age, gender and education are significant determinants of labour mobility. Finally, informal employment serves as a buffer in times of recession – with farming and informal wage employment absorbing labour shed by other statuses during the Russian financial crisis.     

Prudence, Intertemporal Substitution, and Savings under Uncertainty

This paper derives the relations between the coefficient of absolute prudence, the equivalent precautionary premium, risk aversion to concentration, and the normality and shift of current consumption under uncertainty, without the time-separable utility assumption. Examples show that Kimball's coefficient of absolute prudence does not fully characterize precautionary saving or saving behavior under uncertainty. It is proved that, whereas a higher rate of intertemporal substitution and a larger coefficient of absolute prudence imply more savings when current consumption is normal, a larger coefficient of intertemporal substitution and a smaller coefficient of absolute prudence imply more savings when current consumption is inferior. Received July 17, 2001; revised version received November 20, 2001     

Dealing with monopsony power: Employment subsidies vs. minimum wages

We show in a monopsony model that accounting for changes in hours a minimum wage has ambiguous effects on employment and welfare. When all workers have the same preference ordering over leisure and consumption employment subsidies unambiguously improve welfare. Many countries have minimum wages and also tax minimum wage workers.     

Flat income taxation,redistribution and labour market performance

A flat tax rate on labour income has gained popularity in European countries. This article assesses the attractiveness of such a flat tax in achieving redistributive objectives with the smallest distortions to employment. We do so by using a detailed applied general equilibrium model for the Netherlands. The model is empirically grounded in the data and encompasses decisions on hours worked, labour force participation, skill formation, wage bargaining between unions and firms and a wide variety of institutional details. The simulations suggest that the replacement of the current tax system in the Netherlands by a flat rate will harm labour market performance if aggregate income inequality is contained. Only flat tax reforms that reduce redistribution will raise employment. This finding bolsters the notions from optimal tax literature regarding the equity-efficiency trade off and the superiority of nonlinear taxes to obtain redistributive goals in an efficient way.     

Precautionary retirement and precautionary saving

The paper analyzes the lifetime utility maximization problem of an agent who chooses her saving and timing of retirement in the presence of labor income risk in a simple setting where a pure redistributive pension scheme is in place. In this context, a precautionary motive for retirement, which pushes old workers to replace an uncertain labor income with certain pension payments, and to retire early is identified. The conditions for precautionary retirement and saving to arise are then characterized and interpreted in two settings. In the first setting, utility only depends on income, and a sufficiently low level of absolute prudence is necessary for precautionary retirement. A sufficiently high level is necessary however for precautionary saving, which can coexist with precautionary retirement only for intermediate values of absolute prudence. In the second setting, agent utility also depends on leisure, and three conditions allow the precautionary motive for retirement and saving to jointly operate: prudence, an index of absolute prudence sufficiently low and cross-prudence in leisure.     

Wage rigidity and destabilizing spirals

This paper investigates the impact of real wage rigidity on the (de)stabilizing role of demand feedback. I show that destabilizing supply–demand feedback driven by countercyclical precautionary savings demand against uninsured unemployment risk is fundamentally a matter of rigid real wage adjustments over business cycles. Given the estimated wage rigidity consistent with aggregate labor market dynamics in the United States, the quantitative results suggest that the unemployment risk channel has a minor impact on aggregate volatility.     

A New Specification of Labour Supply in the MONASH Model with an Illustrative Application

MONASH is a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. This article describes a new labour-market specification for MONASH in which people are allocated in year t to categories according to their labourmarket activities in year t – 1. People in each category plan their labour supplies by solving an optimisation problem. Via these problems, we introduce the assumption that people in employment categories supply labour more strongly to employment activities than do people in unemployment categories. Thus we find that employment-stimulating policies in t – 1 increase labour supply in t by shifting the composition of the labour force in t in favour of employment categories and away from unemployment categories. We illustrate this idea by using MONASH to simulate the Dawkins proposal to combine a freeze on award wage rates with tax credits for low-wage workers in low-income families. We find that the Dawkins policy would generate a significant short-run increase in employment. With the increase in employment generating an increase in labour supply, the employment benefits of the policy would persist over many years. However, in the long run, we would expect the effect of the policy on aggregate employment to be small and to depend on how the policy affected the ratio of real after-tax wage rates to unemployment benefits.     

Increasing risk and nonseparable utility functions

Assuming that the intertemporal utility function is separable, conditions are established which determine when an increase in risk with respect to the rate of interest is likely to increase or decrease savings and the supply of work effort. Without assuming intertemporal separability similar results are derived for the case where present and future consumption of both leisure and commodities are complements. A heuristic interpretation of the results concerning the behavior of the Arrow-Pratt measure of relative risk aversion is provided.     

Optimal consumption and the timing of the resolution of uncertainty

As is well-known, consumers want to accumulate precautionary savings in the face of income risks when their marginal utility is convex (prudence). In this paper, we explore the effect of the timing of the resolution of income uncertainty on savings. An agent faces uncertainty about his income at date t+2. What is the effect of being informed that the uncertainty will be resolved at date t+1 on the consumption at date t? We show that the effect is positive, if and only if, marginal utility is convex (prudence), when either the risk free rate is equal to the rate of pure preference for the present, or when the utility function is HARA. The intuition is that an early resolution of uncertainty allows for time-diversifying the risk. It therefore plays a role similar to a reduction of the income risk, whose effect on savings is negative under prudence.     

Evidence of the added-worker and discouraged-worker effects in Australia

Gross flow data for workers moving between the states of employment, unemployment and non-participation in Australia can be used to analyse the likelihood of workers transitioning between the three states in different phases of the business cycle. We use correlation analysis and a SVAR model to determine the cyclicality of state transition rates and use these results to characterise labour force inflows and outflows as being consistent in aggregate with either the discouraged-worker effect (DWE) or the added-worker effect (AWE). We find evidence that the AWE is dominant in transitions in both directions between unemployment and non-participation which contributes to a rise in unemployment during economic contractions. We also find that the DWE is dominant in transitions from non-participation to employment and that this drives the overall result that non-participation rises during a contraction. This means that the overall participation rate is procyclical. It is important to understand the cyclical influences on labour force participation and its interaction with unemployment before framing policy responses which seek to reduce labour market slack.