Loan interest rate pass-through and changes after the financial crisis: Japan’s evidence

We estimate interest rate pass-through in the loan market using an individual bank-based panel dataset from Japan. Previous studies using data from European countries have presented a number of common findings, including that banks with a high proportion of relationship lending tend to set lower pass-through. In this respect, we have obtained similar results using a dataset for Japan going back to the early 2000s. We further examine the influence of borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics on loan interest rate pass-through, and find that these additional factors are also important determinants for pass-through dispersion. However, after the recent global financial crisis, even banks with a high proportion of relationship lending have largely lowered loan interest rates by raising pass-through, and pass-through has not necessarily been determined in accordance with borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics. These results differ from those of recent studies on European countries. Possible background factors explaining this change are that (i) pressure to lower loan interest rates has risen due to extensive monetary easing and greater lending competition among banks, while Japan’s banking system as a whole has maintained its resilience in the post-crisis period; (ii) demand for bank loans has increased substantially due to disruptions in the market for alternative funding sources, such as commercial paper and corporate bonds; and (iii) public measures to increase bank loans have been broadly introduced in Japan.     

Bank market power and revenue diversification: Evidence from selected ASEAN countries

This paper examines the association between bank market power and revenue diversification using a sample of 153 commercial banks from five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam). We find a non-linear relationship between bank market power and revenue diversification, where at lower degrees of market power (in loan and deposit markets) banks concentrate on revenue diversification. In contrast, those with greater market power focus more on traditional interest-based products. Our findings also indicate that credit losses experienced earlier, during and after the Asian financial crisis have encouraged ASEAN banks to diversify into non-traditional activities to compensate for their excessive losses. When the markets recovered and loan demand increased, however, traditional interest-based business has become more important. These results remain consistent across all models providing robust results.     

Financial Deregulation and the Bank Lending Channel in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia

The dominant role of commercial banks as a source of finance and the considerable asymmetry of information in financial markets in developing countries have raised an argument that the bank lending channel of monetary transmission mechanism would be very important in such countries. This study addresses the issue by investigating empirically whether there are differential effects of monetary policy on banks' balance sheets, and its implications to the existence of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia, especially since the early 1980s when the government adopted a policy of financial deveculation. We find significant differences of balance sheet behaviour across bank classes in response to a change in monetary policy, consistent with the predictions of the bank lending view. We also found that because of access to foreign funds and the existence of bank loan commitment, the monetary policy was unable to constrain loan supply by the large (state) banks, indicating that the bank lending channel operates through smaller (non-state) banks.     

资本充足率、存款准备金率与货币政策银行信贷传导——基于银行业市场结构的分析

基于垄断竞争的银行业市场结构,研究银行在受到资本充足率和存款准备金率双重约束条件下,在面对货币政策冲击的情况下所做出的最优信贷决策行为。通过构造贷款市场总体均衡模型,得出以下结论:当银行满足资本充足率和存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道表现出有效性;而当贷款市场中的银行不能满足资本充足率或存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道则表现出无效性。     

金融危机期间美联储货币政策效果研究——基于货币市场的实证分析

本文通过事件研究方法,对2007～2009年金融危机期间美联储货币政策的效果进行了实证分析.研究发现,以利率为主的传统货币政策工具、针对金融机构与金融市场的贷款机制等非传统货币政策工具的操作,在危机中有效地改善了货币市场条件;但对个别金融机构的救助、大规模资产收购计划,并没有改善货币市场条件,反而导致UBOR-OIS利...     

Does bank competition affect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through bank lending channel? Evidence from India

This paper empirically investigates how intensified competition in the Indian banking affects the transmission of monetary policy through bank lending channel over the period 1997–2017. Additionally, this study examines the impact of deposit and loan market channels on bank’s credit growth. Results obtained through two-step system-GMM reveal that a higher degree of market power weakens the monetary policy transmission mechanism for the entire banking industry and across ownerships. Results show that higher market power in the deposit and loan markets weakens the impact of monetary policy on bank loan supply. The findings of this study extend important policy measures that can strengthen the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by reducing the adverse effects of changes in bank competition.     

Credit Constraints in Manufacturing Enterprises in Africa

We investigate the question of whether firms in Africa's manufacturingsector are credit constrained. The fact that few firms obtaincredit is not sufficient to prove constraints, since certainfirms may not have a demand for credit while others may be refusedcredit as part of profit maximising behaviour by banks. To investigatethis question, we use direct evidence on whether firms had ademand of credit and whether their demand was satisfied in theformal credit market, based on panel data on firms in the manufacturingsector from six African countries. Of those firms with a demandfor credit, only a quarter obtained a formal sector loan. Ouranalysis suggests that while banks allocate credit on the basisof expected profits, micro or small firms are much less likelyto get a loan than large firms. We also find that outstandingdebt is positively related with obtaining further lending. Therole of outstanding debt is likely to be a reflection of inefficiencyin credit markets, while the fact that size matters is consistentwith a bias as well, although we cannot totally exclude thatthey reflect transactions costs on the part of banks. We presentan analysis showing how much more profitable small firms mustbe to obtain a loan than large firms.     

The evolution of a national banking market in pre-war Japan

This paper assesses banking market integration in Japan during the period 1889-1938 using annual data on loan rates and spreads between loan and deposit rates. Banks in prefectures further from the financial centers exhibited higher loan rates and greater spreads than banks closer to the center, however, distance effects diminished over time, suggesting that banking markets became increasingly integrated due to declines in transaction costs. Additionally, loan rates and spreads varied negatively with the intensity of local bank competition, consistent with the notion of market segmentation. We speculate that Japan’s anti-competitive banking regulation might have slowed the process of banking market integration.     

Some Evidence on the Relevance of Bank Behaviour for the Lending Channel in The Netherlands

This paper studies the behaviour of Dutch banks. We test the adjustment of banks' balance sheets in times of monetary policy changes during the period 1957–1991. As a reaction to a policy change, banks basically have two alternatives to adjust their net money creation: (1) sell securities in public capital markets, and/or issue long-term liabilities, and (2) change domestic loan supply. If banks opt for the latter a lending channel may be relevant, even in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate and a high degree of international capital mobility. We test for the effectiveness of both indirect and direct instruments of monetary policy. It turns out that in case of changes in the official interest rate, the volume of bank loans is not affected and that banks display a kind of buffer-stock behaviour by diminishing their publicly traded assets. In situations with quantity restrictions on the growth of net money creation, however, the volume of loans is affected significantly when the quantity restriction is withdrawn thereby fulfilling a necessary condition for the bank lending channel to be effective.     

Monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel in Thailand

This paper investigates the strength of the bank lending channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Thailand. Bank behavior is captured by quarterly balance sheet data for ten commercial banks of diverse size for the period 2007-2016. Based on a flexible form profit function, bank supply and demand equations are estimated that capture lending and funding choices. The estimation results are used to derive time-dependent supply and demand elasticities which are then combined with estimates of pass-through from the policy rate to retail rates to simulate the dynamic impact of a monetary tightening on bank portfolio allocations. Due to pass-through differentials among retail interest rates, an increase in the policy rate is shown to raise the cost of loan-production relative to the return on loans, thereby motivating banks to contract their lending. Small banks show a greater degree of loan contraction than large banks because large banks are better able to fund continued lending through debt issuance. Because the Thai economy relies heavily on bank loans, these findings suggest that the bank lending channel is an important conduit for the transmission of monetary policy in Thailand.     

An Examination of Entry and Competitive Performance in Rural Banking Markets

This article explores the change in the level of competition in rural banking markets after the deregulation that occurred following passage of the Riegle‐Neal Act of 1994. Using an empirical model that utilizes both the number of banks and the value of deposits in a cross‐section of 278 rural markets, we decompose the impact of the entry of new banks into resulting changes in per capita demand and the costs/profits of local banks in 1994 and 2004. The results support the view that local banking markets have become more competitive since the mid‐1990s.     

Bank dependency on foreign funding and global liquidity shocks: The importance of US monetary policy for a developing country

We examine international spillover effects of US monetary policy on bank lending in Cambodia, using unique data about loan disbursements and the funding structures of Cambodian banks from 2013Q1 to 2019Q2. The banking sector in a developing country is likely dependent on foreign funding, while the dependency could be the source of vulnerability to international monetary and economic conditions. We empirically document that US monetary policy is likely to be transmitted to Cambodian bank lending through foreign funding. We also document that Cambodian banks change their risk-taking behavior in response to the spillover effects of US monetary policy. Furthermore, these results are robust for US monetary policy, but weak and not robust for the monetary policies of the Cambodian bank’s major shareholders’ home countries, suggesting that US monetary policy should be primarily taken into account in supervising banks that are reliant on foreign funding, in addition to domestic economic conditions.     

Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies

We assess the transmission of monetary policy and the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices on the real economy for the five biggest and fastest growing emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Using modern econometric techniques, we show that a monetary policy contraction has a negative effect on output, suggesting that it can lean against unexpected macroeconomic shocks even when the financial markets are not well-developed in this group of countries. We also uncover the importance of commodity price shocks, which lead to a rise in inflation and demand an aggressive behaviour from central banks towards inflation stabilisation.     

The Determinants of Bank Rates in Local Consumer Lending Markets: Comparing Market and Institution-Level Results

Most previous studies of banking markets have given little attention to the potential competitive discipline provided by credit unions on consumer loan rates. After presenting a theoretical framework for understanding the impact credit unions should be expected to have, this article analyzes two pooled cross-section time-series samples—56 U.S. markets over the 1992-1998 period and 81 banks (within those markets) over the same period—with the focus on explaining bank rates for two types of consumer loans. Results confirm the previously observed role of market structure and strongly point to a significant role for credit unions in disciplining the exercise of market power by banks. At the institution level, where the impact of bank size, market share, and holding company status can be analyzed, the evidence supports both market power and scale economy rationales for bank loan pricing and hints at a multimarket contact influence.     

Exchange-rate arrangements and financial integration in East Asia: on a collision course?

Financial integration in East Asia is actively being pursued and will in due course lead to substantial mobility of capital between economies in the region. Plans for monetary cooperation as a prelude to monetary integration and ultimately monetary unification are also proposed. These plans often suggest that central banks should adopt some form of common exchange rate policy in the transition period towards full monetary union. This paper argues that this is a dangerous path in the context of highly integrated financial markets. An alternative approach is proposed where independent central banks coordinate their monetary policies through the adoption of common objectives and by building an appropriate institutional framework. When this coordination process has progressed to the point where interest rate developments are similar across the region, and if in the meantime the required institutional infrastructure has been build, the next step towards monetary unification can be taken among those central banks that so desire. The claim is that this transition path is likely to be robust and will limit the risk of currency crises.     

Central Bank Policy in a More Perfect Financial System

Financial innovation increases markets' liquidity and provides economic agents with new instruments to better handle risks, but it reduces the efficacy of monetary policy while strengthening the logic and force of the “unholy trinity”. Increased liquidity of financial markets and increased leverage of financial positions imply that speculators can attack unsustainable fixed exchange rates faster and more powerfully than ever. The rapid innovation of new financial instruments in these markets also implies the futility to “throw sand in the wheels” through regulation or the introduction of transaction taxes. The higher asset substitutability generated by the emergence of derivatives makes the definition of “money,” particularly of broad monetary aggregates, increasingly difficult. In a more complete financial market system central banks find it harder to predict the effect of a given monetary impulse on real output and employment with any reasonable precision. Discretionary monetary policies aimed at output and employment become more uncertain. Consequently, central banks should focus on the long-run goal of price stability.     

Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

利率市场化下商业银行利率竞争的博弈分析

受金融危机的影响,我国存贷款基准利率发生相对频繁的波动,这也引起人们更加关注利率波动的影响。存贷利差水平是目前影响我国商业银行盈利水平的最重要因素,因而随着利率市场化的逐步深入,商业银行无疑将围绕利率展开更激烈的存贷业务竞争。本文从微观角度,运用博弈论的非合作博弈与合作博弈的一些基本方法,构建博弈模型分析我国商业银行利率竞争的态势,并基于这一分析提出相应的建议。     

美国量化宽松政策对新兴经济体股票市场价格的影响

2008年金融危机后美国采取量化宽松货币政策造成大量流动性进入新兴经济体股票市场。通过建立面板VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术分析了美国货币供应M1、股票市场以及联邦基金利率透过汇率、利率和预期方式对新兴经济体股票市场价格指数产生的影响。结果表明,美国量化宽松货币政策对新兴经济体股票市场价格具有正向溢出效应,利率渠道影响效果显著。     

Motivations for Loan Herding by Chinese Banks and Its Impact on Bank Performance

This study uses a dynamic herding model that considers intertemporal and cross‐sectional correlation to confirm that loan herding occurs among joint‐stock commercial banks (JSCBs) and city commercial banks (CCBs). We clarify the motivations for bank loan herding. We find that loan herding by both JSCBs and CCBs results more from following the behavior of other same‐type banks than different‐type banks because of characteristic herding or reputational concerns. Loan herding by JSCBs is motivated by investigative herding, whereas loan herding by CCBs results from informational cascades. Moreover, loan herding has a significantly harmful impact on the operating performance of CCBs but not JSCBs, which may be explained by the irrational behavior of CCBs. Our results will help Chinese bank supervisors develop appropriate policies for handling loan herding.