财政分权与城市扩张——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

近十几年来我国逐渐形成了以城市扩张为中心的"急速城镇化",导致了一系列经济社会问题,造成耕地资源过度耗费,严重威胁到国家的粮食和生态的安全。当前中国的城市扩张主要是由地方政府主导,而财政分权对当地政府的行为有着重大的影响。在现行的财政分权体制下,地方政府拥有强烈的城市扩张冲动。论文基于我国省级面板数据探究"财政分权"对"城市扩张"的影响。研究结果表明,省级财政收入分权对城市扩张具有正向推动作用,省内财政支出分权同样对城市扩张具有正向推动作用。     

财政分权的地方财政稳固效应

本文利用1998—2012年的省级面板数据,通过过滤周期变动对财政收支的影响测度地方财政的稳固状况,同时根据中国实际分权状况,估计地方政府收支分权水平,并从收支分权与体制设计两个角度分析中国财政分权对地方财政稳固的影响。研究结果表明,1998—2012年,地方政府总体财政稳固性在下降,财政收支分权水平显著下降,且财政转移支付依赖度显著提高。其中,2002年的所得税改革对促进省级财政稳固具有正效应。因此,中国需要进一步完善分税制改革,提高省级政府的自有收入占比,明确各级政府的财权与事权,调整支出结构,转移完善转移支付机制并逐步减少中央转移支付,合理深化税制改革,促进地方财政稳固。     

财政分权体制下转移支付制度创新的路径选择

现行财政转移支付制度目标应定位于弥补地方财政缺口,平衡地区间财力差异以实现基本公共服务均等化。但从财政转移支付形式演变的政治逻辑看,现行财政转移支付制度并不具有财力均等化效应。为此,笔者提出财政分权体制下转移支付制度创新的路径:一是调整反映既得利益的转移支付;二是规范专项转移支付;三是完善财力性转移支付。     

政府审计能够抑制地方政府债务增长吗？——财政分权的视角

以2005—2016年我国31个省级政府为研究样本,通过构建动态面板数据模型,从财政分权的视角,研究了政府审计与地方政府债务增长之间的关系及其作用机理。研究发现：政府审计能够抑制地方政府债务增长,且政府审计增收节支效应在低债务规模省份能够发挥抑制作用,政府审计建立健全制度效应在高债务规模省份能够发挥抑制作用。进一步研究表明,政府审计地方政府债务治理效应存在财政分权体制差异,财政分权越高,政府审计对于地方政府债务增长的抑制作用越强。研究对于充分发挥政府审计的地方政府债务治理效应,防范地方政府债务风险,具有理论和现实意义。     

公共服务均等化视角下的财政转移支付:理论、现实与出路

转移支付是分权财政体制的重要内容,完善财政转移支付制度是深化公共财政体制改革的迫切要求。要形成统一、规范、透明的财政转移支付制度,就必须改革现行分税制,健全中央和地方财力与事权相匹配的体制,构建完善的转移支付法律体系,强化转移支付监督和管理制度,不断提高转移支付效率,为实现公共服务均等化提供财政保障。     

城市扩张、土地财政与农村剩余劳动力转移——来自中国281个地级市的经验证据

本文系统分析城市扩张、土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响机制,并针对中国281个城市的面板数据,综合运用GMM估计和面板门槛效应模型,考察城市扩张和土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应。结果显示:城市扩张对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响主要呈现推动作用,且可能表现出倒U型趋势。以公共服务供给水平和工资水平作为门槛变量,城市扩张对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在门槛效应;土地财政依赖则不利于农村剩余劳动力转移,且城市扩张与土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在异质性。同时,城市扩张与土地财政依赖的交互项系数显著为正,表明在与土地财政互动的过程中,城市扩张推动农村剩余劳动力转移的效用被不断削弱。     

财政分权与环境污染的国际经验及启示

院改革开放后的财政分权改革对中国经济持续高速增长发挥了重要作用,但是财政分权体制带来的激励扭曲,也加剧了环境污染.基于此,文章从财政支出、产业结构以及转移支付等三个角度出发,梳理了国外财政分权与环境污染的内在联系与作用机制,对财政分权下环境公共产品支出不足、环境规制约束降低以及转移支付不完善等问题进行了充分阐述.在借鉴国外环境污染经验教训基础上,对我国财政分权下的环境污染问题提出优化建议.     

我国转移支付制度的演进与影响

转移支付制度这一概念在我国真正意义上出现是在1993年的十四届三中全会,但建国以来我国中央政府就有对地方政府全额补助、 专项拨款等形式的财政转移支付.转移支付制度几乎在任何一个具有两级以上政府的国家都存在,这不仅是事权和财权分配不当的原因,也是由于政府间分权制度的内生性和不稳定性特征[1].通过研究我国转移支付制度的演进过程,不难发现,近几年我国转移支付占中央总支出的比重已经达到70％的比例,且转轨过渡痕迹依然明显,进一步建立适应我国经济体制和社会发展的转移支付制度也日趋重要.     

财政转移支付与预算软约束

我国与分税制财政体制相配套的财政转移支付制度是在1994年后逐步建立起来的,经过十几年的发展,财政转移支付规模逐渐增大,在关注财政转移支付均等化功能的同时,不应忽视财政转移支付可能带来的预算软约束问题。财政转移支付不是一定带来预算软约束,但通常地方政府对中央政府的期望会引致预算软约束。纵向财政失衡、政治和改革等影响因素的作用、政府责任重叠、均等化标准模糊以及财政转移支付的可协商性与随意性,客观上增加了地方政府的期望,为预算软约束提供了条件。     

财政分权视角下中国经济增长质量效应检验

基于我国2003～2017年285个城市的面板数据,利用固定效应模型,实证检验财政分权对经济增长质量的影响。研究发现:财政分权与经济增长质量之间存在"先促进,后抑制"的倒U型关系,即一定程度的财政分权能够提升经济增长质量,但当财政分权程度过大时,则会抑制经济增长质量,并且不同时期的财政分权对经济增长质量的影响效应也有所不同。因此,为推动各地区经济高质量发展,应分别对财政分权程度不同的地区采取差异化的政策措施,建立与经济增长质量相适应的地方激励考核制度,有效监管地方财政的收支情况,促进财政分权与经济高质量发展的良性协同。     

我国财政分权对垂直财政状况的影响——协调失灵将导致财政赤字的产生

在财政分权增加了协调失败可能性的理论假设下,本文利用GLS的随机效用模型对我国30个省级政府和中央政府1995-2006年的财政数据进行回归研究,推证出协调失灵将导致财政赤字的产生。研究结果表明:税收权力的转移和转移支付在不同程度上显著的增加了省级和中央的财政赤字,恶化了两级财政状况。     

Future changes in age and household patterns: Some implications for public finances

Using stochastic forecasting techniques, this paper assesses the consequences for public finances of changes in age and household structures in Denmark over the period 2008–2037. Focusing on components of welfare provisions and tax payments with noticeable differences across age and household status, we show that, based on a point forecast, the fiscal impact of changes in household structures amounts to an annual negative effect of 0.5% of GDP, and the effect of changes in age structures is forecast to worsen the public budget by 3.7% of GDP per year. While being subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty, the prospect of such a dramatic weakening of public finances is likely to trigger demands for welfare reforms characterized by a more individualized system of public transfer and tax payments, in addition to the measures that have already been taken to address the fiscal effects of population ageing.     

Decentralization and economic growth revisited: an empirical note

Although it is theoretically expected that decentralization leads to efficient provision of local public services and stimulates economic development, there is a mixed picture of the decentralization effect on economic growth across earlier empirical studies. Using the instrument variables (IV) technique with the latest cross-country data for the period from 1997 to 2001, this paper found that fiscal decentralization has a significant positive impact on per capita GDP growth. Therefore, when the focus is placed on the latest information on the economic situation in the latter 1990s, decentralization, particularly on the fiscal expenditure side, is instrumental in economic growth.     

THE IMPACT OF FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION: A SURVEY

In this paper, we offer a comprehensive and updated review of the impact of fiscal decentralization on the economy, society and politics. Our first target is the examination of two crucial and yet unsolved issues in the empirical literature on decentralization: the proper measurement of decentralization itself and its potential endogeneity in econometric estimates. Then, we discuss the main existing findings on the effects of decentralization on a relevant list of socio-economic issues. The impact of fiscal decentralization reforms on political institutions and public policies is also considered. Complete answers on the impact of fiscal decentralization are not likely to be certain but, overall, there are reasons to be optimistic about the net positive result. Our survey by necessity has to be selective but it presents a balanced view of what is known and what is not yet known opening room for further research and practice on fiscal decentralization.     

财政分权对地方政府财政赤字规模膨胀的影响——来自分税制改革后中国省级的观察和经验证据

本文从理论和实证两方面探讨了分税制改革以来确立的财政分权模式对我国地方政府财政赤字规模日益膨胀的影响。理论分析表明,地方政府日益膨胀的财政赤字规模是现行财政体制下财权和事权割裂、公共池问题、横向策略互动以及政治锦标赛引发的激励扭曲和为增长而过度竞争等因素的综合产物。基于全国1998～2006年省际面板数据,本文的实证研究支持了我们的理论预期,即中国式财政分权对地方政府财政赤字规模的膨胀具有显著的正面激励作用。     

Fiscal decentralization under free mobility

In this paper it is shown that, under the proper convexity assumption, any efficient allocation of an economy subdivided into locationally separated regions can be sustained by means of fiscal decentralization with profit maximizing local governments. For that to be true, however, a system of intergovernmental grants is needed. Without such grants, fiscal decentralization and Tiebout equilibria are closely related concepts. Since a Tiebout equilibrium generally fails to exist [Bewley (1981)], these grants play an important role not only for redistribution but, in the first place, to make fiscal decentralization a feasible allocation mechanism.     

Fiscal decentralization and multinational firms’ ownership: evidence from China

China’s fiscal decentralization increases the incentive for local governments to maintain economic prosperity and improve institutional environments for multinational firms. This study investigates the impact of fiscal decentralization on the ownership shares of multinational firms in China. Multinational firms located in regions with higher degrees of fiscal decentralization are found to own larger shares of their foreign subsidiaries. This result is consistent under various robustness checks, including instrumental variables estimations. The finding suggests that multinational firms respond to local fiscal decentralization by increasing their participation in investment. This study therefore provides additional evidence for the beneficial effect of fiscal decentralization on China’s economic growth by highlighting the risk-mitigating role of fiscal decentralization.     

Fiscal decentralization and public sector efficiency: evidence from OECD countries

This paper studies the impact of fiscal decentralization on public sector efficiency (PSE). We first use a theoretical framework that illustrates the two opposing forces that shape a non-monotonic effect of fiscal decentralization on PSE. Subsequently, we carry out an empirical analysis for 21 OECD countries, between 1970 and 2000. A country-level dataset is used to measure PSE in delivering education and health services and the new indices are regressed on well-established decentralization measures. Irrespective of whether PSE concerns education or health services, an inverted U-shaped relationship has been identified between government efficiency in providing these services and fiscal decentralization. This relationship is robust across several different specifications and estimation methods.     

THE ECONOMICS OF FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION

Abstract There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: ‘first generation approach’ and ‘an emerging second generation approach’. The discussion generally covers the two notions of fiscal decentralization: ‘fiscal autonomy’ and ‘fiscal importance’ of subnational governments as the background of the most recently developed index of fiscal decentralization in Vo. The relevance of this discussion to any further development of a fiscal decentralization index is briefly noted.     

财政分权有利于贫困减少吗?——来自分税制改革后的省际证据

本文从公共支出效率和公共支出结构两个角度,论述了财政分权和贫困减少之间的理论联系。一方面,财政分权通过增加亲贫式支出的配置效率来实现减贫目标;另一方面,财政分权加剧了地方政府间的竞争程度,而地区竞争会扭曲公共支出结构,阻碍减贫目标的实现。利用我国分税制改革后的省际数据发现:就北京、上海和天津而言,财政分权程度的增加恶化了贫困状况;而对于其他省份,财政分权程度的增加则有利于缓解贫困。