Preisdeterminanten des Stromgroßhandels in Frankreich

This article provides a model-based analysis of the French spot market for electricity. Therefore a cost optimizing dispatch model is applied in order to derive a broader understanding of the liberalized electricity market in France considering empirical spot market prices in 2009. At first analysis of market structure and power plant mix is done in accordance with the european framework. The state of supply side competition is suggested as well. Due to the high portion of nuclear energy in the French energy mix the technical availability forecast of the plants plays a crucial role during the price formation on the wholesale market. As a result prices determined by the model are highly correlated with the French spot market. The results suggest a functioning pricing mechanism although deviations occur by ex-ante uncertain demand or unscheduled non-usability of generating units.     

CO2-Einsparpotenziale des Energieträgers Erdgas

Given the governmental climate targets, the question arises how these targets can be achieved without affecting a secure and cheap energy supply. As natural gas causes less carbon emissions than any other fossil fuel it might be able to make a contribution in this regard. Currently, in the generation of heat and power natural gas plays a significant role, which will further increase in the future. Using several scenarios, we predict the development of the importance of natural gas and the consequences for carbon emissions. The calculations show that the share of natural gas for the supply of heat will increase from 46 % to 56 %. Efficiency increases together with changes in the structure of power generation can reduce heating-related carbon emissions by 8.3 % until 2020. For power generation, we calculate alternative scenarios. If the current structure of power generation is held constant, carbon emissions will increase by 0.8 % p.a. If instead natural gas completely replaces coal and lignite, the carbon emissions will be reduced by 1.9 % per year.     

Ökonomische Bewertung des Repowering von Onshore-Windenergieanlagen in Deutschland

Wind power takes a leading role among the renewable energy sources. Whereas in offshore wind power utilization large technical challenges still need to be tackled for commercial exploitation, the replacement of obsolete plants (repowering) in the onshore sector provides an interesting alternative. This paper first provides an overview of the technical, legal and social development concerning wind power utilization in general, and repowering in particular, in Germany. In a next step, by means of model-based analysis, the technical potential for wind power by means of repowering is determined. The theoretical potential is valuated against social aspects. Due to the large heterogeneity of candidate sites for repowering, general potential studies are not suitable for concrete investment decisions. Instead, a detailed economic feasibility study is required. In our study, we performed scenario analysis, also taking into account the repowering-specific risks. The parameter values varied are those for the quality of the site, the size of the wind park, and the age of the wind turbines to be replaced. Finally, we discuss the results and provide an outlook on the development of repowering in light of the novelized EEG. We find that, until now, the repowering potential could not be fully exploited. An intensified realization of repowering projects in the coming years can be expected, due to the technical potential, simplifications in the commissioning process, rising acceptance on the side of the communities due to changes in the tax legislation and, above all, thanks to the incentives for almost all onshore wind parks.     

Die Kosten des Klimaschutzes am Beispiel der Strompreise für private Haushalte

Power prices in Germany have been surging since the outset of the new millennium. Among the major reasons for this tendency are newly raised taxes and levies on electricity prices, whose introduction is primarily motivated by climate concerns. Without these taxes and levies, net electricity prices would have remained constant for private households. This article discusses these taxes and levies that have been responsible for the cost increases in private households’ electricity consumption. Most influential have been the feed-in tariffs for renewable energies, above all photovoltaics. According to our calculations, the levy for renewables will further increase in the up-coming years, thereby pushing consumers’ electricity cost once again. Our calculations also show that within the next couple of years, there will be a fierce competition among renewable energy technologies, most notably between photovoltaics and wind power. Politics would be well-advised, therefore, to limit the annual capacity of newly installed solar modules in order to avoid both the explosion of consumers’ electricity bills and strong competition among renewables.     

Multidimensionales Verfahren zur Bestimmung des Regelleistungsbedarfes unter Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten

One of the most crucial constraints in operation of electrical power supply systems is the permanent balance between generation and load. Reserve power is held ready to be able to keep this balance also in case of the occurrence of unpredictable events like power plant outages or inevitable deviations of power injections from their predicted values. At this, the allocation of operating reserves is in the field of conflict between level of reliability and cost effectiveness. The amount of reserve generation capacity required in a control area heavily depends on prediction quality which constitutes the need for high quality predictions. This article is about the influence of prediction quality on the amount of reserve generation capacity required in a control area. The algorithms for the assessment of required reserve generation capacity known from literature use the variation calculus technique to account for the aforementioned unpredictable events and prediction errors. In this article, an extension to a convolution-based method is presented in which the uncertainties of the predictions are expressed using intervals. Each parameter is represented by an independent dimension, assuming statistical independence among them. This allows the distinct analysis of each parameter’s influence on the amount of required reserve generation capacity. In addition, two methods for the visualization of the multi-dimensional results are presented, allowing a comprehensive analysis of the parameters’ influences. Standard distribution functions are used to represent the parameters for the simulation and the results are shown as probability density functions of possible imbalances. Based on forecasts of the development of conventional power plants and regenerative generation in the years 2020, 2030 and 2040, the required control power of the future German transmission system is calculated. Influences and dependencies are identified with the extended convolution-based method.     

Die Auswirkungen des EEG auf das Energiesystem Deutschlands – Eine Betrachtung mit dem Energiesystemmodell TIMES-D

In Germany, the electricity generation from renewable energy has been promoted since the year 2000 by a feed-in tariff system, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG). This article evaluates the long-term impact of the German feed-in tariffs on the development of the German energy system with the help of the energy system model TIMES-D. In the model-based analysis, both the payment side (i.e. the tariffs) and the cost side (i.e. the EEG apportionment) are taken into consideration. Through the promotion of the feed-in tariff system—in combination with the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)—the use of renewable energies in electricity generation in Germany rises considerably such that renewable energy sources account for almost 40% of total gross electricity consumption in 2030. Accordingly, until 2020 total EEG fee payments as well as the EEG apportionment increase significantly. The impact of the feed-in tariff system on final electricity demand is, however, relatively small. Alternative scenario settings show that the expansion of the renewable electricity generation through the feed-in tariff system clearly exceeds the development which would occur when trying to reach the reduction targets of the ETS in a cost-efficient way.     

Sektorale und gesamtwirtschaftliche Beurteilung des „Carbon-Leakage”-Problems für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland

In order to mitigate the global warming issue, the European Commission decided To reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Europe by 2020 by 20% (compared to 1990). This translates into an overall reduction of 1.1 billion tons. The most important Reduction tool in its policy arsenal is the Emission-Trading System (ETS). All ETS industries together are supposed to reduce their CO₂ emissions by 421 million tons or 21 % (compared to 2005). With a planned reduction of 421 million tons of CO₂, Germany’s ETS industries bear almost a quarter of the Overall reduction burden. The associated carbon leakage problem is only to some extent attributed to the climate protection targets. The planned adjustment of the major allocation mechanism in the third trading phase weights considerably more. In the third trading phase the free provision of benchmark-related emission permits will be replaced with a market-price auction system. A current study of the EEFA-Research Institute examines the effects of auctioning on compatibility, production and employment in Germany.     

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Photovoltaik im deutschen Energiemix – Neudefinition des Ansatzes der Netzparität

Photovoltaics are one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Despite high costs and a limited energy yield, attractive support schemes particularly the German renewable energy law have paved the way for the strong market growth of this technology within the last decade. Here the question arises as to when photovoltaics will reach a competitive level in Germany without the support of subsidies. The prominent grid parity approach is simple and considered critical in this discussion. It is critical because of the different references regarding the costs of electricity generated by a newly installed PV system and the electricity price of private households, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, sales as well as taxes and duties on the one hand. On the other hand, there are different time references in the calculation of electricity generation costs and electricity prices of private households. Transferring the approach of Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE) to all power generation plants within the energy mix means a redefinition of the grid parity of photovoltaics will be carried out. Here the electricity generation costs of photovoltaics as well as the energy mix will be calculated in the same way. The LCOE calculation refers to the whole life cycle of every power generation plant. That is why a balance between the high investment costs of photovoltaics and the increasing operation costs of fossil fuelled power plants is made. It can be shown that the reaching of competitiveness of photovoltaics in Germany depends on structural changes in electricity generation and it is to be realized within the anticipated time frame until the year 2020.     

Start der Diskussion zur Ausgestaltung des künftigen Regel- und Ausgleichsenergiesystems für den deutschen Gasmarkt

Whilst the conditions for access to the German gas networks have been largely defined the rules for balancing and imbalance pricing are still intransparent and inconsistent. Following the recent publication of a study on behalf of the German regulator in November 2007 the German gas industry has now entered into official discussions about the future organisation of balancing mechanisms for the German gas market, with the aim of ensuring non-discriminatory network access. The objective of this study was to create a comprehensive basis for discussion and to suggest both a market-based model for the procurement of balancing energy by network operators and the non-discriminatory and transparent pricing of imbalances on the shippers’ side, taking account of the specific conditions of the German gas market. This paper explains the options that are currently discussed, provides relevant background and summarises the status quo.     

Modellgestützte Bewertung des Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetzes 2016 anhand ausgewählter Anwendungsfälle in Wohngebäuden

Cogeneration is a promising technology in the energy transition amongst other things in view of its energy efficiency and its broad applicability in the household, tertiary and industry sectors. For the promotion of cogeneration technologies, support schemes are in place in German energy policy. Amongst other things the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Act serves as the main instrument for the promotion since 2002. In the new version of the CHP Act of 2016 the German Federal Government strives towards a more market-oriented design resulting in significant amendments featuring inter alia a highly case-dependent tariff design with modified levels and durations of remuneration. It is therefore the aim of the present study to assess these modifications with respect to technical, economic and ecological aspects in a model-based approach by means of selected use cases at different levels of spatial aggregation for residential buildings. Results point to an economic advantageousness for cases of the medium energy consumption level (streets and blocks of houses) under the new regime as well as the reversal of this attractiveness for objects of high consumption (neighbourhoods, districts). Particularly, CHP plants tend be dimensioned comparatively smaller with a greater number of full-load hours under the new regime. Furthermore, implications with regard to technical and ecological aspects are shown in this contribution.     

Potenziale zur Erhöhung des regionalen Markenkerns im Stromvertrieb am Beispiel der regionalen Grünstromkennzeichnung gemäß EEG 2017

The regional green power labeling according to the EEG 2017 represents an extension of the possibilities for labeling green electricity. In this paper we investigate the extent to which the implementation of regional green power products using the green power labeling regime under the EEG 2017 can help to strengthen the regional brand core of German power marketers, and which is the best alternative for raising the regional brand core of these firms. To this end, the different options for green power marketing with regional reference are discussed in detail, and it is elaborated which additional marketing models are enabled through the regional green power labeling. Furthermore, the criteria are identified with which the various green power labeling models with regional reference—with respect to their potential to raise the regional brand core—ought to be compared with each other. The results from our analysis show that the regional green power labeling based on EEG 2017 can be used to systematically upgrade the options for the marketing of regionally generated electricity already in place before the EEG 2017 entered into force.     

Empirische Analyse des Wechselverhaltens von Stromkunden. Was hält Stromkunden davon ab,zu Ökostromanbietern zu Wechseln?

In an online survey concerning the preferences for wind power generation in Germany respondents were also asked whether they purchase green electricity. If not, they were requested to state the reasons for not purchasing green electricity. In this paper we present the results using, among other things, a logistic regression analysis. Moreover, we also interpret the results with respect to German energy policy. The regression analysis shows, for example, that respondents who are not in favour of the climate policy of the German government are less likely to purchase green electricity. Overall, the results show that respondents do not principally oppose purchasing green electricity. Reservation towards green electricity is rather caused by insufficient information about green electricity and lacking motivation to change power contracts at the current supplier or to change even the supplier. However, as the sample of the on-line survey is not representative for Germany, the conclusions should be considered with some degree of caution. Nevertheless, the results show unused market potential for green electricity. This conclusion might be of interest for producers of green electricity and for the marketing of green electricity labels, because a substantial share of the identified obstacles can be eliminated with suitable marketing actions.     

Potenziale zur Erhöhung des regionalen Markenkerns im Stromvertrieb am Beispiel der regionalen Grünstromkennzeichnung gemäß EEG 2017: Teil 2 (Multikriterien-Analyse)

In this paper – complementing an earlier article on this topic (Part 1: Basics and Analysis of Potentials) – we perform a Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), also engaging decision-makers in the analytical process. From the MCDA we derive recommendations to act with regard to the alternatives for regional green power marketing (cf. Part 1). For the MCDA we have developed a hybrid multicriteria approach, which enables to pool the advantages of two methods. Specifically, for the valuation of alternatives and criteria weighting we use the so-called Multi-Attribute Global Inference of Quality (MAGIQ) method, whereas the computation of the analytical results was performed with the help of an optimized Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) method. The results of the MCDA show that the regional green power labeling according to EEG 2017 can be used for upgrading the options already existing before the introduction of the EEG 2017 for the marketing of regionally generated electricity. From the MCDA conducted we find that those green power marketing models which combine the regional green power labeling according to the EEG 2017 with previously existing options rank first to third.     

Richtigstellung zum Artikel: „Sektorale und gesamtwirtschaftliche Beurteilung des „Carbon-Leakage“ — Problems für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland“ von Hans Georg Buttermann,Bernhard Hillebrand und Elmar Hillebrand,Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 1 (2009), Seite 62 ff

Anhang

Richtigstellung zum Artikel: „Sektorale und gesamtwirtschaftliche Beurteilung des „Carbon-Leakage“ — Problems für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland“ von Hans Georg Buttermann, Bernhard Hillebrand und Elmar Hillebrand, Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 1 (2009), Seite 62 ff