INTERPRETING RECENT RESEARCH ON SCHOOLING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Policymakers in developing countries have long been troubledby the undesirable, but apparently unavoidable, choice betweenproviding broad access to education and developing high-qualityschools. Recent evidence, however, suggests that this is a badway to think about human capital development. Grade repetitionand high dropout rates lead to a significant waste of resourcesin many school systems. Students in quality schools, however,respond in ways that reduce such inefficiencies, perhaps evensufficiently to recoup immediately investments in quality. Promoting high-quality schools, however, is more difficult thanmany have thought, in part because research demonstrates thatthe traditional approach to providing quality—simply providingmore inputs—is frequently ineffective. Existing inefficienciesare likely to be alleviated only by the introduction of substantiallystronger performance incentives in schools and by more extensiveexperimentation and evaluation of educational programs and schoolorganizations. Incentives, decentralized decisionmaking, andevaluation are alien terms to education, in both industrialand developing countries, but they hold the key to improvementthat has eluded policymakers pursuing traditional practices.      

The Evolution of Poverty and Inequality in Indian Villages

This paper examines the evolution of poverty and inequalityin rural India by reviewing longitudinal village studies. Itexplores the main forces of economic change—agriculturalintensification, changing land relations, and occupational diversification—froma wide range of disciplinary perspectives, and it considersthe roles of various institutions as conduits of change. Althoughmost village studies support the survey-based judgment thatrural poverty declined in India during the 1970s and 1980s,they find that progress has been slow and irregular and thatinequalities within villages have persisted. These continuedinequalities may constrain both the scope for further povertyreduction from economic growth and the impact of policy interventions.      

Counting the World's Poor: Problems and Possible Solutions

As recent discussions have made clear, the apparent lack ofpoverty reduction in the face of historically high rates ofeconomic growth—both in the world as a whole and in specificcountries (most notably India)—provides fuel for the argumentthat economic growth does little to reduce poverty. How confidentcan we be that the data actually support these inferences? Atthe international level, the regular revision of purchasingpower parity exchange rates plays havoc with the poverty estimates,changing them in ways that have little or nothing to do withthe actual experience of the poor. At the domestic level, theproblems in measuring poverty are important not only for theworld count but also for tracking income poverty within individualcountries. Yet, in many countries, there are large and growingdiscrepancies between the survey data—the source of povertycounts—and the national accounts—the source of themeasure of economic growth. Thus economic growth, as measured,has at best a weak relationship with poverty, as measured.      

Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets

Poor rural and urban households in developing countries facesubstantial risks, which they handle with risk-management andrisk-coping strategies, including self-insurance through savingsand informal insurance mechanisms. Despite these mechanisms,however, vulnerability to poverty linked to risk remains high.This article reviews the literature on poor households' useof risk-management and risk-coping strategies. It identifiesthe constraints on their effectiveness and discusses policyoptions. It shows that risk and lumpiness limit the opportunitiesto use assets as insurance, that entry constraints limit theusefulness of income diversification, and that informal risk-sharingprovides only limited protection, leaving some of the poor exposedto very severe negative shocks. Public safety nets are likelyto be beneficial, but their impact is sometimes limited, andthey may have negative externalities on households that arenot covered. Collecting more information on households' vulnerabilityto poverty—through both quantitative and qualitative methods—couldhelp inform policy.      

INCOMPLETE MARKETS AND COMMODITY-LINKED FINANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This article provides a framework for appraising new financialinstruments and evaluating the extent to which they can helpalleviate problems of incomplete credit markets and contingentclaims markets in developing countries. Although the issuesinvolved apply to any new financial instrument, we give particularattention to commodity-linked securities because many developingcountries specialize in producing a handful of primary commoditiesand are therefore exposed to substantial commodity price risks.The article looks at the supply of, demand for, and pricingof commodity-linked securities and discusses some issues thataffect their use by developing countries: their special legalstatus as sovereign debt; their feasibility (since to becometruly effective they will require liquid secondary markets);and the construction of an optimal portfolio of external debtobligations. It also discusses the potential for new financialinstruments—particularly commodity-linked securities—asa tool for risk management in developing countries.      

ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF EXTERNAL FINANCE: A SURVEY

For many developing countries, alternative forms of externalfinance—all forms of finance that are not guaranteed byor mediated through the public sector—have become increasinglyimportant as traditional financing to the public sector hasebbed. Yet a survey of the literature reveals few recent analyticalinsights about alternative financing, which includes foreigndirect investment, project lending, portfolio investment, closed-endequity funds, private nonguaranteed debt, licensing, joint ventures,quasi-equity contracts, and other forms of private, nonrecourselending to private borrowers. The literature offers little solidguidance for distinguishing between alternative and traditionalfinancing with respect to country risk, for establishing themost appropriate and efficient incentive structures and restrictionsin the host country, or for identifying the optimal financingmodes for international firms investing in developing countries.This gap in the analytical literature has important implicationsfor policy formulation. It is not always clear whether a countryis developing incentives and establishing safeguards (for ensuringadherence to project performance requirements) that are mosteffective in attracting alternative forms of finance.      

A BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF NUTRITIONAL PROGRAMS FOR ANEMIA REDUCTION

Using benefit-cost analysis, this article evaluates potentialprograms for reducing iron deficiency anemia, one of the mostprevalent nutritional disorders. It discusses the origins andprevalence of anemia and reviews the literature on consequencesof anemia for work capacity, output, learning, and other variables.Costs and benefits are estimated for two types of programs—medicinalsupplementation and fortification of food with iron—andfor three cases—Indonesia, Kenya, and Mexico. Estimatesof benefits are calculated to include the value of additionalwork output in labor-surplus societies. Under a wide range of assumptions, the benefit-cost ratios arefound to be substantially greater than 1: for dietary fortificationratios ranged between 7 and 70 for the three illustrative countries;for dietary supplementation, the range was from 4 to 38 on themost reasonable set of assumptions. The study concludes thatfield trials should be carried out to see if the findings ofthis study are supported in particular cases.      

THE ECONOMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCE EXTRACTION: A PRIMER FOR DEVELOPMENT ECONOMISTS

As developing countries become major consumers of the globalsupply of commercial energy, it is essential to understand thedeterminants of future energy prices. At the same time, manydeveloping countries are relying on exports of their own naturalresources—tropical hardwoods, oil, tin, gold, and otherminerals—to generate badly needed foreign exchange. Governmentpolicies influence how much of a resource is extracted todayand how much is saved for the future. Flawed policies needlesslywaste precious national wealth.      

Developing Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiations

This article summarizes some of the results and findings emergingfrom an ongoing World Bank research and capacity-building projectthat focuses on the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiatingagenda from a developing country perspective. Recent researchsuggests that the potential gains from further multilateralliberalization of trade remain very large. The payoffs associatedwith attempts to introduce substantive disciplines in the WTOon domestic regulatory regimes are much less certain. This suggeststhat the focus of current and future negotiations should beprimarily on the bread and butter of the multilateral tradingsystem—the progressive liberalization of barriers to tradein goods and services on a nondiscriminatory basis. In addition,priority should be given to ensuring that rules are consistentwith the development needs of poorer countries and to helpingdeveloping countries implement WTO obligations.      

THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY: A Review of Its Operation and Effects on Developing Countries

Policy changes in the European Community (EC)—the world'slargest importer and, since 1986, exporter of agricultural commodities—mayhave significant effects on world markets and developing countries.This article investigates the EC's Common Agricultural Policy(CAP), its history, mode of operation, and the prospects andpossibilities for change, to bring out the implications of thepolicy for developing country exporters and importers. The hypothesisthat evolves differs from that of many studies in proposingthat an agricultural liberalization in the EC is unlikely toeffect any great change in world market prices over the firstfew years. Developing countries' principal gain from a liberalizationof the CAP would derive from increased stability of world marketprices, improved access to export markets, and a reduction inthe uncertainty currently caused by discretionary measures inthe EC.      

HOW MUCH DOES TRADE WITH THE SOUTH AFFECT WORKERS IN THE NORTH?

Does trade with developing countries have a small and benigneffect on workers in industrial countries, as most economistshave maintained, or a large and adverse effect, as the generalpublic and advocates of protection believe? A review of theevidence suggests that neither of these positions is tenable.The methods that economists have conventionally used to measurethe effect of North-South trade are biased downward. The truesize of this effect remains uncertain, but some recent studiessuggest that it is much larger than previously estimated. Tradewith the South has probably significantly altered the sectoralcomposition of employment in the North, shifting workers outof manufacturing and into nontraded services. More important,it has probably significantly worsened the relative economicposition of unskilled workers in industrial countries, and mayalso have aggravated the problem of reconciling low inflationwith low unemployment. Even so, the adverse side effects oftrade with the South are much smaller than is popularly supposed.And the popular remedy—protection—is clearly wrong.What is needed instead is more action by governments to offsetthe reduction in the relative demand for unskilled labor throughtraining and education, job creation, and income redistribution.      

WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES FROM VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRAINTS?:The Case of Footwear

Voluntary export restraints have been a popular resort of industrialcountries faced with increasing competition from exports ofdeveloping countries. As a strategy for circumventing the rulesof the GATT (whose regulations preclude increases in tariffs),these nontariff barriers have been rather successful; whetherthey have been as successful in their aim of protecting andstimulating the industry concerned is another matter. This article looks at what happened when industrial countriesimposed—and then removed—voluntary export restraintson the footwear industry during the 1970s and 1980s. Why didprotectionism spread so fast and then dissipate almost as rapidly,and what effects did this coming and going have on the exportingcountries We suggest that industrial countries removed the restraintsbecause they found ?them either superfluous (the expected employmenteffect failed to materialize) or ineffective (the principalexporters maintained their market share during the height ofthe restrictions), or else because the industry was able toadjust by importing footwear at a profit. Predicting the effect of VERs, and determining how best to managethem, are critical questions for developing countries strugglingto improve their export performance in the 1990s. The resultsof detailed study of a representative industry, summarized here,may assist in the prediction and determination.      

Developing Countries' Changing Participation in World Trade

Recent years have seen substantial reductions in trade policyand other barriers inhibiting developing country participationin world trade. Lower barriers have contributed to a dramaticshift in the pattern of developing country trade—awayfrom dependence on commodity exports to much greater relianceon manufactures and services. In addition, exports to otherdeveloping countries have become much more important. Thesechanges have profound implications for the role played by developingcountries in the world economy and trade system.      

WHEN DO HETERODOX STABILIZATION PROGRAMS WORK?: Lessons from Experience

What advantages and disadvantages does the heterodox strategyoffer to stabilization programs in countries with chronic highinflation? Heterodox stabilization programs, in our definition,are those that support orthodox policies— that is, tightfiscal policy and a fixed exchange rate—with the initial,temporary use of incomes policies— that is, price andwage controls. This evaluation, based on several heterodox programs,successful and unsuccessful, from the 1960s and 1980s in LatinAmerican countries and Israel, affords four principal lessons: * The rapid reduction in inflation at the beginning of heterodoxprograms (which usually comes about at small cost) is the easypart; the problem is to maintain price stability over time. * Incomes policies in heterodox stabilization programs are justifiedonly in countries with high chronic inflation, where persistentinflation is more pervasive and problematic. * There is a case for a bigger fiscal adjustment in heterodoxthan in orthodox programs because of the risk that a programwith price controls may be misperceived as a populist devicefor achieving price stability without adjusting. * The failure of a heterodox program is more likely to destabilizeinflation than is the failure of an orthodox program.      

Using Household Surveys to Build Analytic Capacity

This article reviews the results of efforts in five countriesto build a national capacity to analyze social policy; theseefforts were undertaken in oconjunction with Living StandardsMeasurement Survey (LSMS) projects. Case studies for Bolivia,Jamaica, the Kyrgyz Republic, South Africa, and Vietnam showthat building such capacity requires explicit planning, significanttime and money, open access to data, and strong support frompolicymakers. Lessons are drawn about four aspects of buildingcapacity—training, technical assistance, research, andrecruitment. The lessons learned from these LSMS projects applyin a more general sense to other kinds of capacity-buildingprojects.      

Infrastructure Privatization and Regulation: Promises and Perils

Infrastructure is crucial for generating growth, alleviatingpoverty, and increasing international competitiveness. For muchof the twentieth century and in most countries, the networkutilities that delivered infrastructure services—suchas electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, railroads,and water supply—were vertically and horizontally integratedstate monopolies. But this approach often resulted in extremelyweak services, especially in developing and transition economiesand especially for poor people. Common problems included lowproductivity, high costs, bad quality, insufficient revenue,and shortfalls in investment. Over the past two decades manycountries have implemented far-reaching institutional reforms—restructuring,privatizing, and establishing new approaches to regulation.This article identifies the challenges involved in this massivepolicy redirection within the historical, economic, and institutionalcontext of developing and transition economies. It also reviewsthe outcomes of these policy changes, including their distributionalconsequences—especially for poor households and otherdisadvantaged groups. Drawing on a range of international experiencesand empirical studies, it recommends directions for future reformsand research to improve infrastructure performance.      

REACHING THE RURAL POOR THROUGH PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT: Arguments, Evidence, and Lessons from South Asia

With the limited set of policy instruments typically avaiablein the rural sectors of developing countries, imperfect coverageof the poor and leakage ot the nonpoor must be expected fromeven the most well-intentioned poverty alleviation scheme. Oneway to reach the poor more effectively is to build incentivesfor self-selection into the scheme. Labor-intensive rural publicworks projects have the potential to reach and protect the poor,as well as to create and maintain rural infrastructure. Thelimited evidence for South Asia suggests that few nonpoor personswant to participate, and that both direct and indirect transferever, be rapidly dissipated by a badly concevided and executedproject; the details of how project are selected, designed,and financed are crucial to success in both the short and thelong run.      

HOW WELL CAN METHOD SUBSTITUTE FOR DATA? FIVE EXPERIMENTS IN POVERTY ANALYSIS

No one doubts that good data are essential to sound policymaking.Alas, data are invariably faulty. Methodological solutions todata inadequacies have often been proposed and implemented,but they have been tested only rarely. Yet the methods thatare used may well determine the direction of policy. For example,the particular survey method used—and the way nonsurveydata are interpreted—may be critical in assessing whethera country's strategy for reducing poverty is working. This articleshows how counterfactual experiments can help test the reliabilityof various methods of dealing with common data problems. Well–designedmethods—and they need not be very complicated—canhelp get around the problem, although it appears that substitutingmethod for data is a long way from being perfect.      

Promoting Efficient Rural Financial Intermediation

Although governments have traditionally used subsidized creditprograms to promote agricultural growth, this approach has generallyfailed to improve incomes and alleviate poverty in rural areas.It has also led to the mistaken belief that rural credit programscannot be profitable. A new approach seeks to raise standardsof living in rural areas by casting the government in a veryd role—one of setting a favorable legal andpolicy environmentfor rural financial markets and addressing spec market failurescost effectively through well-designed and self-sustaining interventions.There is evidence that this approach can be highly successful.The Village Bank system of Bank Rakyat Indonesia has shown thatfinancial services can be extended to millions of low-incomerural clients without relying on subsidies. Indeed, the programhas generated enormous profits for the bank by using simple,innovative, and largely replicable techniques.      

Principles of Financial Regulation: A Dynamic Portfolio Approach

Economists seeking explanations for the global financial crisisof 1997–99 are reaching consensus that a major factorwas weak financial institutions, which resulted in part frominadequate government regulations. At the same time many developingcountries are struggling with an overregulated financial system—onethat stifles innovation and the flow of credit to new entrepreneursand that can stunt the growth of well-established firms. Inparticular, too many countries are relying excessively on capitaladequacy standards, which are inefficient and sometimes counterproductive.The author argues that financial systems can be reformed successfullyusing a "dynamic portfolio approach" aimed at managing the incentivesand constraints that affect not only financial institutions'exposure to risk but also their ability to cope with it. Thearticle sets out general principles of financial regulationand shows how the dynamic portfolio approach can help countriesdeal with the special problems that arise during the transitionto a more liberalized economy as well as those that arise indealing with a financial crisis similar to the 1997 crisis inEast Asia.