Empirical Inference with Equilibrium Search Models of the Labour Market

This paper examines the use of equilibrium search models in the empirical analysis of labour markets. We survey the literature on structural estimation of these models with micro data on wages and durations, and we discuss the advantages of this approach for policy analysis and for obtaining a better understanding of the labour market. During the past ten years, substantial progress has been made in terms of the explanatory power of these models. We finish with a critical examination of the extent to which the approach can be fruitfully applied to (matched worker-) firm data.     

On the Optimality of Search Matching Equilibrium When Workers Are Risk Averse

This paper revisits the normative properties of search‐matching economies when homogeneous workers have concave utility functions and wages are bargained over. The optimal allocation of resources is characterized first when information is perfect and second when search effort is not observable. In the former case, employees should be unable to extract a rent. The optimal marginal tax rate is then 100%. As search effort becomes unobservable, an appropriate positive rent is needed and the optimal marginal tax rate is lower. Moreover, the pretax wage is lower in order to boost labor demand. Finally, in both cases, nonlinear income taxation is a key complement to unemployment insurance.     

Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms

This paper examines how country, industry, and firm characteristics interact in general equilibrium to determine nations' responses to trade liberalization. When firms possess heterogeneous productivity, countries differ in relative factor abundance, and industries vary in factor intensity, falling trade costs induce reallocations of resources both within and across industries and countries. These reallocations generate substantial job turnover in all sectors, spur relatively more creative destruction in comparative advantage industries than in comparative disadvantage industries, and magnify ex ante comparative advantage to create additional welfare gains from trade. The improvements in aggregate productivity as countries liberalize dampen and can even reverse the real-wage losses of scarce factors.     

Optimal Redistributive Taxation in a Search Equilibrium Model

This paper characterizes optimal non-linear income taxation in an economy with a continuum of unobservable productivity levels and endogenous involuntary unemployment due to frictions in the labour markets. Redistributive taxation distorts labour demand and wages. Compared to their efficient values, gross wages, unemployment, and participation are lower. Average tax rates are increasing. Marginal tax rates are positive, even at the top. Finally, numerical simulations suggest that redistribution is much more important in our setting than in a comparable Mirrlees-type setting.     

Ramsey Equilibrium in a Two-Sector Model with Heterogeneous Households

We prove an existence theorem for a stationary perfect foresight equilibrium under borrowing constraints in a two-sector model with infinitely lived heterogeneous agents. The most patient agent holds all the capital in this solution. We also show that if the capital goods sector is capital intensive and capital income is increasing in the aggregate capital stock, then the aggregate capital stock eventually is monotonic and converges to the steady state stock. If the consumption goods sector is more capital intensive and capital income is increasing in aggregate capital we prove convergence to the steady state under more restrictive conditions. Periodic equilibria are shown to exist under weaker hypotheses. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D90, E13.     

基于异质消费群体的生态供应链网络均衡模型

文章针对不同消费者对新产品、再制造产品存在效用异质性的情况,构建了一个由制造商和消费者市场组成的两层生态供应链超网络模型,优化目标为经济效益最大化、环境影响和风险最小化。考虑环境规制及产品的可再造比例对整个供应链绩效的影响,利用网络均衡理论描述不同主体的独立行为和主体之间、产品之间相互影响的竞争行为。数据分析结果表明,系统整体效益以及企业对产品可再造比例的选择很大程度上取决于产品创新效率和政府补贴方式。     

异质性企业、结构转型与稳定出口

通过构建异质性企业、结构转型和出口增长的二元边际理论模型,本文认为转型国家出口增长主要沿集约边际实现的原因与其农业剩余劳动力有关,农业剩余劳动力越多,出口增长的集约边际越大、扩展边际越小。利用Tobit模型对1995-2009年中国出口到123个国家的HS-6位码贸易数据进行实证分析,在控制其他影响因素的前提下,我国农业剩余劳动力非农转移显著正向影响出口增长集约边际、负向影响扩展边际的效应确实存在。经济规模、贸易成本、人民币升值、区域经济一体化、外部冲击、语言的相通性、政治体制等变量对中国出口增长二元边际的影响机制不完全相同,表明要提高出口增长中的扩展边际比重,出口企业应实施市场多元化战略,将目标市场从传统高收入国家转移到发展中国家来,实现出口的稳定增长。     

我国上市公司价值创造与价值损害的判定分析

本文以1999年底前在沪市上市的429家A股公司为研究对象，分别以样本公司的2002年度EVA绝对值和相对值（权益资本效率）为标准将样本公司划分为“创造价值”、“模糊状态”或“价值损害”三种类型，然后从这三类公司中各随机抽取80％的样本公司为建模样本，根据其1999～2001年的有关财务变量、公司治理变量和行业变量，分别应用Fisher和Logistic判定分析方法建立我国上市公司价值创造预测模型，并使用剩余20％样本公司作为检验样本验证模型。研究结果表明，基于上市公司的（T-1）年度的财务数据创建预测模型误判率较低；Logistic模型的判定准确性较高；EVA相对值判定模型的准确度略高于EVA绝对值判定模型；财务指标、公司治理指标和行业特征对公司价值创造具有显著影响。     

国外异质性厂商贸易理论研究综述

异质性厂商贸易理论代表了国际贸易理论最新发展趋势,研究的是微观经济主体--厂商的贸易和投资行为与自身特征的关系.厂商的市场进入方式与其生产率水平是相对应的,出口和贸易自由化能够提高行业生产率,汇率变化、贸易政策和产业集聚对厂商出口具有重要的影响,厂商进入出口市场前后存在自我选择效应和出口中学习效应,这两种效应都导致厂商生产率提高,最终生产率最高的厂商将以对外直接投资的方式进入国际市场.     

家族企业多维度信任与工作绩效

信任对家族企业的工作绩效有非常重要的意义。文章从信任的多维度出发,研究了家族企业信任对工作绩效的影响。在文献研究的基础上,作者以家族企业的高管人员和企业主为调查研究对象,进行了实证分析。研究结论表明,家族企业信任对工作绩效具有一定的影响,其中：一、家族企业情感性信任对工作绩效有显著的正向影响;二、家族企业认知性信任对工作绩效有显著的正向影响;三、在家族企业中,情感性信任对工作绩效的正向影响比认知性信任对工作绩效的正向影响更大;四、在家族企业中,对于工作绩效的影响,情感性信任和认知性信任是相互替代的关系。研究结论将为我国家族企业的可持续发展提供参考决策。     

中国上市公司盈利成长规律实证分析

西方的多数研究证实 ,个别企业的盈利变化过程大致可由随机游走过程来表述 ,这给后期的学者利用盈利数据进行实证研究提供了基础。中国的某些学者不加检验地引进了西方的研究成果 ,即假设企业的盈利遵循随机游走过程 ,甚至认为企业的盈利应该遵循带成长因素的随机游走过程。实际情况如何呢 ?本文以上海证券交易所 1 994年底之前上市的公司为样本 ,采用多种统计方法 ,分析了它们连续 6年的盈利报告 ,结果发现 :(1 )上市公司盈利额及总资产利润率并不遵循随机游走过程和带成长因素的随机游走过程。 (2 )从盈利增量呈强负自相关的两个样本组合的统计分析看 ,模型中加进盈利增量变量 ,较大地提高了模型拟合度。 (3)从多项统计指标的显著改善可以看出 ,模型Et=b1 Et- 1 +b2 ΔEt- 1 +εt 能更好地描述样本公司的盈利成长。     

就业流动对农民工工作满意度的影响研究

本文基于广州、深圳和东莞三个珠三角城市的实地调查数据,从工作环境、收入、人际关系三个维度出发衡量农民工的整体工作满意度,根据农民工的就业特征区分两种就业流动形式——主动流动和被动流动,分析就业流动对农民工工作满意度的影响。研究发现:就业流动是农民工工作满意度的重要影响因素,主动流动和被动流动都对农民工的工作满意度有显著的负向影响。要推进人的城镇化,提高农民工在城市的工作满意度,需要采取措施减少农民工在城市的就业流动。     

中国证券公司市场结构与绩效的实证分析

笔者利用2006年～2009年的面板数据,对传统的SCP假说、相对市场力量假说和效率结构假说进行了检验。研究发现,我国证券市场支持传统的SCP假说:市场集中度与证券公司绩效显著正相关,市场份额、效率与证券公司绩效之间的关系不显著,并且,效率与市场份额不相关。     

我国上市公司可持续发展的计量模型与实证分析

随着我国对稳定发展资本市场的日益重视 ,如何客观评价上市公司自身的竞争优势、长期绩效和成长能力 ,从而科学认识其持续发展的内在规律已成为一个亟待研究和解决的重要问题。为此 ,本文构建出一个新颖的上市公司可持续发展计量模型 ,并首次运用屏面数据计量方法进行实证研究 ,通过使用数理统计工具 ,如Mahalanobis广义距离、计算机集约法和刀切法 ,深入剖析我国上市公司长期绩效的形成机制 ,发现动态累积效益模型能深刻揭示出各类可持续发展指标之间错综复杂的内在关系、真实体现上市公司可持续发展的本质特征并客观评价上市公司的综合素质。     

高技术企业智力资本对财务绩效影响的实证研究

以我国沪深A股上市的通信、计算机和电子信息板块的45家高技术企业为研究对象,采用智力增值系数法计量智力资本,选取45家公司2007～2009年的相关财务数据,运用SPSS统计软件,通过因子分析、相关分析及回归分析等实证分析方法,研究了高技术企业智力资本及其构成要素对财务绩效的影响。     

A Directed Search Model of Inequality with Heterogeneous Skills and Skill–Biased Technology

In this paper I analyse the directed search/matching problem in an economy with heterogeneous skills and skill–biased technology. A unique symmetric equilibrium exists and is socially efficient. Matching is partially mixed in the equilibrium. A high–tech firm receives both skilled and unskilled applicants with positive probability, and favours skilled workers, while a low–tech firm receives only unskilled applicants. The model generates wage inequality among identical unskilled workers, as well as between–skill inequality, despite the fact that all unskilled workers perform the same task and have the same productivity in the two types of firms. Inequality has interesting responses to skill–biased technological progress, a general productivity slowdown, and an exogenous increase in the skill supply elasticity.     

Equilibrium Partner Switching in a Bargaining Model With Asymmetric Information

We study a model in which the seller of an indivisible object faces two potential buyers and makes an offer to either of them in each period. We find that the seller's ability to extract surplus from them depends crucially on the value of the cost of switching from one buyer to the next. If the seller is pessimistic about the buyers' valuations and there is a switching cost, however small, then the market is a natural bilateral monopoly; the second buyer is never called on. If the switching cost is zero, or if the seller is optimistic, then switching, and possibly recall of the original buyer, may occur.     

Experience Rating versus Employment Protection Laws in a Model where Firms Monitor Workers*

While layoff costs in the U.S. are mostly due to experience‐rated unemployment insurance, layoff costs in European labour markets are primarily a consequence of employment protection laws. In this paper we compare the effects of experience rating and employment protection laws on employment and welfare in a model where unemployment arises due to efficiency wage setting and where labour turnover is inefficiently high. We show that a revenue‐neutral introduction of experience rating reduces labour turnover and increases employment and welfare. The introduction of employment protection laws may also reduce labour turnover but employment declines.     

Strategic Pricing, Consumer Search and the Number of Firms

We examine an oligopoly model where some consumers engage in costly non-sequential search to discover prices. There are three distinct price-dispersed equilibria characterized by low, moderate and high search intensity. The effects of an increase in the number of firms on search behaviour, expected prices, price dispersion and welfare are sensitive (i) to the equilibrium consumers' search intensity, and (ii) to the status quo number of firms. For instance, when consumers search with low intensity, an increase in the number of firms reduces search, does not affect expected price, leads to greater price dispersion and reduces welfare. In contrast, when consumers search with high intensity, increased competition results in more search and lower prices when the number of competitors in the market is low to begin with, but in less search and higher prices when the number of competitors is large. Duopoly yields identical expected price and price dispersion but higher welfare than an infinite number of firms.     

组织支持、工作满意度与工作绩效——基于高校教师的一项实证研究

组织支持、组织承诺、工作满意度、离职率及工作绩效等变量之间的关系是近年来组织支持理论研究的热点话题.本文以某高校从事教学、科研工作的专任教师为研究样本,深入探讨了教师组织支持、工作满意度与工作绩效之间的关系.实证研究结果表明,组织支持是影响工作满意度水平的重要因素;组织支持在一定程度上影响着关系绩效,但对任务绩效的影响不显著;同时工作满意度对组织支持与工作绩效关系的中介作用不显著.这些结论对进一步调整有关高校教师的激励措施富有启发意义.