城市化与房地产开发投资区域差异——基于动态面板数据模型的实证

在人口城市化变量的基础上,尝试将空间城市化和资本城市化变量引入分析框架,利用1998-2012年省际面板数据建立动态面板模型,并运用系统GMM估计方法,对城市化影响下的房地产开发投资区域配置及其差异进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:从全国层面来看,在控制其他影响因素后,空间城市化和资本城市化对房地产开发投资的影响远大于人口城市化。基于区域层面的估计结果再次表明,人口城市化并不足以主导房地产开发投资区域配置的现实格局,取而代之的是空间城市化和资本城市化对房地产开发投资的区域配置及其结构演变有着至关重要的作用,这在一定程度上纠正了当前对人口城市化作用的不当认识。     

东北区人口城市化对非农产业发展水平的响应类型研究

通过建立反映非农产业发展水平的指标体系,将东北区36个地市级行政地域单元的非农产业发展水平进行排序,并结合各地人口城市化水平,根据人口城市化与非农产业发展水平的作用机理,将人口城市化对非农产业发展水平的响应关系划分为五种不同的类型区域,以此对人口城市化与非农产业发展水平的响应关系进行评价与分析。     

中国城市化水平与房地产价格的实证分析

运用协整分析方法与误差纠正模型,考察了1991～2005年中国房地产价格与城市化水平之间的关系.实证研究发现,中国城市化水平的提高是中国房地产价格上升的原因;中国的房地产价格与中国城市化水平之间存在一种长期稳定的正向变动关系;短期来看,均衡关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较慢.最后,对实证结果进行了分析并指出了相关的政策含义.     

城镇失业人口省际差异及其与城市化耦合分析

城镇失业人口已成为我国全球化进程所面临的最紧迫、最严重问题之一。根据1988—2003年统计年鉴,对我国城镇失业人口省际差异进行深入分析与探讨,并研究其与城市化的耦合关系。结果表明:①从纵向角度分析,城镇失业人口数变化与增长的省区差异具有一定集聚现象;②从横向角度分析,城镇失业人口空间分布呈“四区、一带”凝聚,这与纵向分析的分布地带具有高度一致性,可认为我国城镇失业人口省际差异表现为“四区、一带”格局;城镇失业人口和城市化的耦合系数与城市化水平呈正相关关系,城市水平提高,耦合系数增加,两者耦合水平则减少,当城市化达到完成阶段,两者耦合关系减至最低。最后提出当前我国城市化水平低情况下,提高城市化水平成为解决城镇失业人口的有效途径之一。     

潜在变量、宏观变量与动态利率期限结构——基于DRA模型的实证分析

本文从金融-宏观经济学视角出发,运用DRA模型研究了潜在变量、宏观变量与利率期限结构之间的动态关系。通过脉冲响应函数分析了潜在变量与宏观变量之间的相互冲击效应的大小,以及潜在变量、宏观变量对收益率曲线冲击的影响,借助于方差分解量化了潜在变量、宏观变量冲击对收益率曲线预测误差的贡献率,并利用似然比检验,发现中国的收益率曲线与宏观变量之间存在双向的互动关系,但收益率曲线对未来宏观变量的影响更强。     

基于我国城市化与人口教育结构的实证研究

本文通过计量分析方法对我国城市化与人口教育结构的关系进行了研究.结果表明:不同教育结构与城市化水平之间存在长期协整关系,并且不同教育结构对城市化进程的贡献程度不同;人口教育结构是我国城市化的格兰杰原因;在此基础上提出了完善人口教育结构推动我国城市化发展的政策建议.     

人民币汇率、资产价格与短期国际资本流动

本文基于1999年1月～2008年6月的月度数据,运用ARDL-ECM模型检验了人民币汇率、资产价格与我国短期国际资本流动的关系。结果表明,长期内,人民币汇率预期变化率和国内外利差是影响短期国际资本流动的显著因素,人民币汇率水平、国内股市收益率和房地产收益率并未对短期国际资本流动产生显著影响;短期内,人民币汇率、国内外利差和房地产收益率对短期国际资本流动有显著的滞后效应。     

房地产市场对股票市场波动的响应机制研究

借助余弦相似度概念,定义并创设了房地产市场景气度评价变量,据此在短期条件下基于消费者均衡理论,依据斯卢茨基方程测度了各商品支出对股票投资收益率变动的收入效应和替代效应,从而揭示了房地产市场对股票收益率变动的响应过程及其关键因素。研究发现,短期条件下,当股票投资收益率提高时,资金在房地产市场与股票市场间的流动受限,投机性房地产支出变动只有收入效应,无替代效应,导致短期房地产市场偏离长期均衡状态;当投机性房地产需求收入弹性高于临界值时,房地产市场对股票市场波动呈现正响应,且投机性房地产需求收入弹性和银行储蓄率越高正响应越强,由此印证了我国股票市场和房地产市场的强关联性。     

房地产业与城市化进程的广义虚拟滤波分析

随机动态一般均衡方法(SDGE)在广义虚拟经济研究的许多领域应用广泛。运用SDGE方法进行计算实验的过程中,一个重要的技术处理就是对原始序列进行滤波,从中分解出经济周期波动成分。本文基于广义虚拟经济的视角,利用HP滤波,BP滤波和CF滤波方法分析了1987-2010年中国城市化进程与房地产业发展水平之间的关系,对广义虚拟经济条件下二者的互动关系进行了实证检验。计算结果表明:城市化与房地产业发展之间存在着一种双向的、互为因果的关系。城市化水平的提高必然从长期增加城市房地产的需求,引起商品房销售额增加及房地产开发投资的增长,拉动房地产业的快速发展;而房地产开发投资对城市化水平的冲击效应亦表现非常显著。城市化与房地产业的关系符合循环累积因果理论。     

我国城市化水平与经济发展关系的计量分析

本文从经济的角度,运用协整理论,通过选取人口城市化水平与表明经济发展水平的人均GDP、表明生活水平的城乡居民消费支出和表明经济结构高级化程度的第三产业比重等指标进行计量经济模型分析,以揭示我国人口城市化经济学动力机制.分析结果表明,人口城市化与人均GDP、城乡居民消费支出具有长期的均衡关系,最终建立的误差修正模型说明我国城市化自我修正机制很强.     

Credits and non-interest rate determinants of loan demand: a Spanish case study

This article uses bivariate probit analysis to model the potential relationship between the condition of being credit-unconstrained and holding loans as well as to ascertain determinants of a household being credit-unconstrained and likely holding consumer and real-estate loans. It documents that family size, education, permanent and transitory incomes, among others, affect Spanish households’ desire and capacity to hold loans. Furthermore, these factors were found to affect demands for real-estate and consumer loans differently. In general, the above and other results from this research provide insights that would interest credit consumers, credit suppliers, and policy makers in Spain.     

关于房地产调控政策的思考

近两年,中国的楼市一直处在政府的宏观调控中,房地产市场的活跃度虽有下降,但价格却没有明显的回落,各大城市房价依然一路高走,宏观调控要何时奏效？对宏观调控的政策和措施本身进行反思尤为重要。     

Nonlinear causality relationship between stock and real-estate returns in PIGS countries: wealth effect or credit-price effect

It is the first research to investigate for nonlinear interdependence of these two markets in the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) countries based on the quantile causality test. The results reveal the existence of the nonlinear causality relationship between the stock returns and real-estate returns in the PIGS countries.

The empirical results of the quantile causality test suggest a significant causal relationship between these two markets in the PIGS countries, especially in the tail quantile. The existence of a significant tail interdependence implies that investors are unable to hedge the risk across the real-estate and stock markets when they are extremely volatile. Therefore, when there exist extreme returns between the two markets in the PIGS countries, both continuous negative impacts imply that instability in the real-estate market drives instability in the stock market and vice versa. It could be one of the major reasons why it deepened the systemic risk of the European sovereign debt crisis.     

商品房高空置率原因探析

随着中国经济的迅速发展,房地产业取得了长足进步。但中国房地产市场由于自身发展还不完善,机制尚不健全,国家对其宏观调控的各项政策仍处于摸索过程中,因此暴露了不少问题,其中较为值得关注的就是商品房空置面积居高不下。应采取调解住房供给结构性矛盾、平抑商品房价格、加强监督和管理及采取一系列优惠等措施,解决中国房屋空置率过高的问题。     

发达国家农业可持续增长的经验及启示——人口转型与技术进步

完成人口转型的发达国家中,土地、劳动力等传统农业生产要素已不再是农业增长的主要影响因素。而实际上人口转型已成为影响农业技术进步的决定性因素。文章基于1980-2000年14个已完成人口转型的发达国家面板数据的实证分析,通过农业技术与农业增长、人口转型与技术进步两个模型的检验结果,验证了发达国家农业人口数量的减少、受教育水平的提高对技术进步具有正向影响,通过对发达国家农业可持续增长的经验分析,得出中国农业可持续增长的关键为重视农村教育、加快农业人口转型以及提高农业科技投入。同时给出中国农业可持续增长的政策建议:利用教育投资的外溢效应促进农业人口转型,借助科技投入步入高效益农业可持续增长轨道。     

The contrasting interaction effects of university-industry collaboration motivation with demographic characteristics on university-industry collaboration performance in Taiwan

ABSTRACT

This paper applies a demographic characteristics perspective to understand the internal contingencies of the relationship between university-industry collaboration (UIC) motivation (commercialisation, learning, accessing the resources, and teaching) and UIC performance (number of publications, number of patents, commercial products, and number of business cooperation cases). The paper focuses on two aspects of demographic characteristics, age and gender among UIC scholars, and their effect on scholars’ UIC motivation as potential enhancements to improve UIC performance. We collected data from 376 scholars with UIC experience in Taiwan, and the proposed hypotheses were empirically tested. Our results extend the literature by showing that specific categories of UIC performance depend on a scholar's specific type of UIC motivation. We also specify the moderating effect of demographic characteristics on the relationship between specific subconstructs of UIC motivation and UIC performance. The study’s implications and future research directions are discussed.     

Transformations in China's population policies and demographic structure

Abstract. We use data from a 1992 national fertility survey to analyze China's changing demographic patterns between 1970 and 1989, covering marriage, childbearing, fertility and the gender composition of children. The analysis focuses on the relationship between population control policies and the behavior of successive marriage cohorts. Adopting a regression approach, we characterize a set of stylized demographic features in China over the two decades, including new results on women's average age at first marriage and first births, number of children per couple, and sex ratios among children. China's changing demographic patterns differed significantly among urban, township and rural populations.     

Demographic Transition and Economic Development in Karnataka

The universal process of population change has significant attainment of social and economic implications at global level. Demographic transition is not only consisting of population growth tendency but much more along with economic consequences Karnataka is in the third stage of demographic transition and this scenario is marked with opportunities and challenges. This paper examines the demographic trends of Karnataka by using different Census data collected from Census reports and time series data over the time period of 1991–2014 collected from SRS. The fertility and mortality levels in the state have declined considerably. The districts in the Karnataka state have shown considerable increment in HDI from decade to decade. The study used the bound testing approach to co-integration; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was also applied for analyzing the long run relationship whereas Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) was applied for analyzing the short run link of the demographic variables with economic growth. The study exhibited that the demographic transition positively affected the economic growth in the long run and negatively in the short run.

     

企业社会资本定量评价及其运营绩效分析

为找出计算企业社会资本价值量和评价企业社会资本创造经济效益能力的数量化方法,本文重新定义了企业社会资本,进而建立了一套房地产企业社会资本三维度定量评价模型,并以我国广西区内12家房地产企业为样本,综合运用层次分析法等多种科学分析方法对样本企业的社会资本及其运营绩效进行了定量评价。研究结果表明,样本企业的社会资本价值量与其净资产收益率之间存在线性相关关系。据此,提出企业社会资本运营绩效定量评价的应用思路。     

经济基本面影响了住房消费吗——基于EG两步法和var模型的实证分析

本文搜集了1998年一季度到2008年一季度全国时序数据,对住房消费与收入、利率、失业率、房价等经济基本面因素进行了实证研究。首先用EG两步法证实了房地产市场中特有的量价齐升现象,这主要归因于房价的强烈上涨预期改变了居民住房消费行为。随后进一步证实了住房消费与包括收入、利率、房价在内的整个经济基本面之间存在着协整关系,认为目前我国房地产市场整体上还没有出现房地产泡沫。脉冲响应和方差分解的结果表明,在影响住房消费的经济基本面因素中,收入对住房消费的贡献率是越来越大的,而利率和房价的贡献是越来越小的。