An Investment Management Methodology for Publicly Held Property/Casualty Insurers

Investment officers of publicly held property/casualty companies wrestle with the question of how best to contribute to shareholder value. Should they view themselves as managers of a closed‐end investment company that happens to be funded by insurance underwriting? Or should they instead be investing funds primarily to defease the firm's liabilities and thus support the operations of a company whose principal value derives from its insurance activities? The authors of this article suggest that the investment policy of most insurance companies should have two primary objectives: (1) immunizing insurance reserves with a fixed‐income portfolio and (2) earning “abnormal returns” on surplus in “a responsible and disciplined” way. The latter means adhering to an asset allocation approach that takes account of the risk‐reward tradeoffs presented by a broad variety of investment types as well as the accounting treatment of investment income. Both accounting and economic considerations lead the authors to suggest that after‐tax net investment income (“NII”), as defined by U.S. GAAP, is the best benchmark of performance. While focusing mainly on the fixed income part of the portfolio, the authors suggest active management and portfolio approaches that aim to produce a growing, but relatively stable NII. Consistent with GAAP's treatment of NII (which includes interest income but excludes most capital gains) as “recurring income,” the authors argue that the market appears to assign significantly higher multiples to NII than to other sources of reported income.     

A Comparative Analysis of U.S. Property and Casualty Reinsurers and Insurers

In empirical research related to the property-casualty insurance industry, studies commonly focus on either insurers or reinsurers. However, in many cases, the definition used to make the distinction between the two groups is often not clearly defined and/or the definition varies across studies. This variation could result in a substantially different group of firms being included or excluded from the study, thereby affecting the empirical results obtained. This study builds upon Chen and Hamwi , who compare the performance of U.S. insurers and reinsurers. The objective of the study is fourfold: (1) to compare the definitions of insurer and reinsurer commonly used in prior research to identify differences, (2) to expand upon the traditional methods of classifying insurers and reinsurers, (3) to compare the individual firm-level characteristics of insurers and reinsurers to detect potential variation across categories and across definitions, and (4) to analyze the impact of different definitions on the results of multivariate analyses exploring common research questions. The univariate results indicate that there are some variations in the characteristics of the firms based on the categorization of insurers and reinsurers arising from different definitions. In addition, we find that there are significant differences in the regression results when comparing models based on various definitions of reinsurers utilized in prior research and when professional reinsurers and incidental reinsurers are grouped together. As such, it is possible that the definition used to include or exclude reinsurers from the sample can impact the results.     

Alternative Models for Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital for Property/Casualty Insurers

This paper estimates the cost of equity capital for Property/Casualty insurers by applying three alternative asset pricing models: the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), and a unified CAPM/APT model (Wei (1988). The in-sample forecast ability of the models is evaluated by applying the mean squared error method, the Theil U2 (1966) statistic, and the Granger and Newbold (1978) conditional efficiency evaluation. Based on forecast evaluation procedures, the APT and Wei's unified CAPM/APT models perform better than the CAPM in estimating the cost of equity capital for the PC insurers and a combined forecast may outperform the individual forecasts.     

Do Stock Prices of Property Casualty Insurers Fully Reflect Information about Earnings,Accruals, Cash Flows,and Development?

This paper examines whether the stock prices of property and casualty (P&C) insurers fully reflect information contained in earnings, cash flows and accruals, and one particular accrual—development of loss reserves. The reserve for policy losses is a major accrual for P&C firms, requires substantial judgment and is the subject of unique disclosures that reveal the ex post error in management estimates. We find that investors underestimate the persistence of cash flows and overestimate the persistence of accruals for P&C insurers, but our evidence suggests the market does not underestimate the persistence of the development accrual.     

Discretionary and Non-Discretionary Revisions of Loss Reserves by Property-Casualty Insurers: Differential Implications for Future Profitability, Risk and Market Value

We develop and estimate a PC-industry specific model in which proxies for both discretion and non-discretion are used to partition loss reserve revisions into discretionary and non-discretionary components. The use of such proxies enables us to test directional hypotheses about the relations between the revision components and future profitability, risk and market value. We predict and find that discretionary revisions are negatively associated with future profitability, positively associated with firm risk, and negatively associated with market-to-book ratios. We predict and find that non-discretionary revisions are positively associated with future profitability and risk but are not associated with market-to-book ratios.     

Risk and Discounted Loss Reserves

Abstract

The author places the discounting of loss reserves for investment income within a financial economics context. This enables the evaluation of a loss reserve containing a security margin, such as to produce p% confidence in adequacy, taking account of both asset and liability risks. This loss reserve is expressed as a multiple of the economic value of the liabilities. If the security margin is defined as the difference between these two quantities, it is found to increase (decrease) withincreasing asset risk for high (low) values of p. Finally, the author provides a numerical example.     

质押为目的的知识产权价值评估特性分析

以质押为目的的知识产权价值评估的业务性质,决定了该项评估业务的特殊性,并对评估师的执业能力提出更高的要求。本文通过分析以质押为目的的知识产权价值评估在评估目的、标的物特征、价值因素、评估程序和评估信息披露等五个方面的特殊性,提出评估师专业能力相关要求。     

美国企业财产征用过程中的商誉损失及其评估

财产所有者在其财产被政府征用后可以就被占财产的价值取得补偿,目前我国一般只是对其有形资产的损失进行补偿.实际上,这种损失既可能体现为有形财产的损失,也可能体现为无形资产,主要是商誉的损失.本文简要介绍了国外商誉损失及其评估的有关情况.普通评估方法是比较征用前的商誉价值与征用后的商誉价值的差异.企业价值评估师可以使用现代经济和金融理论估算企业商誉损失.文中还举出国外的几个案例阐述了如何使用该理论来评估商誉的损失.     

Discussion of: “Do Stock Prices of Property Casualty Insurers Fully Reflect Information About Earnings,Accruals, Cash Flow and Development?”

My remarks are intended to accomplish two primary objectives. My first objective is to describe how this paper contributes to several streams of current research, offer a few observations on the strengths and limitations of the research design, and consider several ways one might interpret the results. My second objective is to describe several opportunities for future studies by Bill Beaver and Maureen McNichols or other researchers to extend this line of research to address related questions. I have organized these remarks into the following sections: overview of the paper; strengths of the analysis; opportunities to refine the analysis; interpretations of the results; and potential extensions.     

保险公司保障属性的衡量与影响因素分析

本文聚焦保险保障功能,提出保障属性的概念,并运用熵值法构建衡量保险公司保障属性的多指标综合评价模型,计算了保险公司的保障属性指数,并衡量了财险业、寿险业及保险业的保障属性,分析了导致保险公司保障属性差异的影响因素。研究表明,构建的保障属性综合评价模型具有一定的有效性。财险公司保障属性集中在高水平,外资和小型财险公司的保障属性明显较高。寿险公司间保障属性差异明显,外资和小型寿险公司的保障属性明显较高。保险行业的保障属性整体上在样本年显著增强。财险公司和寿险公司的保障属性受不同因素影响。整体上,公司年龄、学历结构、国有股份比例、董事长学历及是否兼任总经理等因素对两者有着共同的影响。     

采矿权出让评估中存在的问题与建议

采矿权出让评估中存在着不符合矿业权评估规范、未依据新的财税法规、矿产品销售价格不实,评估报告披露不充分以及矿业权评估规范修订不够及时等诸多问题。本文针对这些问题提出了相应的建议,以期对矿业权的评估工作有所帮助,从而对防止国有矿权资产流失也有所帮助。     

The Market Valuation and Trading Volume Effects of the Creation of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund on Property-liability Insurers

The Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund was officially created in November, 1993. This study analyzes investor reactions during the creation of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. We find significant share price reactions for four of six legislative events consistent with the predictions of the theory outlined. We use both a generalized least squares portfolio approach and Corrado's (1989) rank statistic, a nonparametric event study methodology, to arrive at our findings. Empirical analysis of trading volume corroborates the findings involving share price reactions. We also find that the market is able to discriminate between property-liability insurers on the basis of hurricane exposure and firm size.     

On the Sensitivity of Premiums and Reserves to Changes in Valuation Elements

Upon differentiating the Thiele differential equations and the equivalence condition with respect to some parameter appearing in the equations, one obtains differential equations for the derivatives of the state-wise reserves and the premium level with respect to the parameter. The solution to these equations measures the impact on premiums and reserves of a change in the parameter. Typically only numerical results can be obtained, but the method applies quite generally to multi-state policies and to virtually any parameter, and so represents a panacea in (the vast majority of) situations where analytical results are out of reach. Extensions to higher order derivatives and higher order conditional moments are straightforward. A difference method for computation is devised, and numerical results are reported for some practical cases.     

基于知识产权视角的无形资产评估问题研究

一、无形资产的界定与知识产权的转化 （一）无形资产的界定 无形资产评估首先应界定其评估对象。无形资产迄今为止尚无一致的,科学的定义,基本上是采用描述性定义并通过列举来界定无形资产。     

我国财产保险公司承保业务线经济资本的度量

承保风险是保险公司面临的主要风险之一,合理地计量其经济资本有助于提高公司的资本管理能力。采用多元Copula理论对我国某财险公司主要业务线的相依结构进行建模,选择拟合较好的GaussCopula,在此基础上,使用凹扭曲风险度量测度主要业务线的经济资本。结果显示:凹扭曲风险度量中的Wang风险度量能够根据风险的整体水平灵活地调整所需的经济资本。     

The Hierarchical Trend Model for Property Valuation and Local Price Indices

This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends, and specific characteristics play a role. Every cluster, a combination of district and house type, has its own price development. The HTM is used for property valuation and for determining local price indices. Two applications are provided, one for the Breda region, and one for the Amsterdam region, lying respectively south and north in The Netherlands. For houses in these regions the accuracy of the valuation results are presented together with the price index results. Price indices based on the HTM are compared to a standard hedonic index and an index based on weighted median selling prices published by national brokerage organization. It is shown that, especially for small housing market segments the HTM produces price indices which are more accurate, detailed, and up-to-date.     

Loss Reserves and the Employment Status of the Appointed Actuary

Abstract

Property/casualty (P/C) insurers are required to establish loss reserves for unpaid losses at the time that the loss has occurred or is reasonably expected to have occurred. We examine factors that may impact the accurate setting of loss reserves. These include the level of rate regulation faced by the insurer and the incentives to underestimate or overestimate reserves to improve financial ratios or improve solvency scores, to reduce earnings, to defer taxes, or to smooth earnings volatility in order to meet shareholder expectations. The employment status of the Appointed Actuary, that is, whether the Appointed Actuary is an employee of the firm or a consultant, may also impact reserve accuracy. Using a variety of regression models with data from 1995 to 2010, we examine the impact of these factors on the accuracy of reserves posted by Canadian P/C insurers. Our results provide no evidence of systematic differences in the magnitude or direction of loss reserve errors between insurers that use company actuaries versus those that use consultant actuaries. However, we find that for both consultant and company actuaries positive reserve errors are associated with increases in global stock market returns and decreases in unanticipated inflation. The insurance market cycle impacts reserve errors for company actuaries and not consultant actuaries. As well, our results indicate that as the proportion of short-tailed business increases in a company, consultant actuaries are more likely to over-reserve. Similar to many previous studies using U.S. data, we do not find strong evidence regarding insurers’ incentives to deliberately overstate or understate reserves: Loss reserves are relatively unbiased estimates of the true losses paid. Thus these findings should be welcome news to the actuarial profession in Canada and to the prudential regulator: The Appointed Actuary, regardless of employment status, provides objective and unbiased estimates of insurers’ largest liability.     

知识产权评估的支撑与研发

我们已经进入了知识经济时代．根据世界知识产权组织（Wodd Intellec-tual Property Organization,WIPO）统计资料．各国之间通过以专利技术为主的许可贸易方式成交的贸易额由1965年的20亿美元增长到1995年的2500亿美元,