Dividend taxation and intertemporal tax arbitrage

We analyze the effects of changes in dividend tax policy using a life-cycle model of the firm, in which new firms first access equity markets, then grow internally, and finally pay dividends when they have reached steady state. We find that unanticipated permanent changes in tax rates have only small effects on aggregate investment, since macroeconomic dynamics are dominated by mature firms for which dividend taxation is not distortionary. Anticipated or temporary dividend tax changes, on the other hand, create incentives for firms to engage in inter-temporal tax arbitrage so as to reduce investors' tax burden. For example, a temporary tax cut – the type most likely to be enacted by policymakers – induces firms to accelerate dividend payments while tax rates are low, which reduces their cash holdings and makes them capital-constrained when large investment opportunities arise. This can significantly lower aggregate investment for periods after the tax cut.     

Growth and risk at the industry level: The real effects of financial liberalization

This paper analyzes the effects of financial liberalization on growth and volatility at the industry level in a large sample of countries. We estimate the impact of liberalization on production, employment, firm entry, capital accumulation, and productivity. In order to overcome omitted variables concerns, we employ a number of alternative difference-in-differences estimation strategies. We implement a propensity score matching algorithm to find a control group for each liberalizing country. In addition, we exploit variation in industry characteristics to obtain an alternative set of difference-in-differences estimates. Financial liberalization is found to have a positive effect on both growth and volatility of production across industries. The positive growth effect comes from increased entry of firms, higher capital accumulation, and an expansion in total employment. By contrast, we do not detect any effect of financial liberalization on measured productivity. Finally, the growth effects of liberalization appear temporary rather than permanent.     

SHORT-TERM CONTRACTS REGULATIONS AND DYNAMIC LABOUR DEMAND: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

We present a dynamic labour demand model where we evaluate the impact of employment regulations on permanent and temporary employment. We consider three different kinds of regulations, namely firing costs, hiring costs and a constraint on temporary contracts. These regulations differently affect the size and composition of employment. The theoretical results are interpreted and questioned on the basis of empirical evidence on the employment effects of the regulation reforms that occurred in the major European countries in the period 1983–1999. The empirical analysis is based on a new set of time‐varying indicators on permanent employment protection, fixed‐term contracts and temporary agency work regulations. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that fixed‐term contracts have been effective stepping‐stones to permanent jobs during the period under observation. On the contrary, flexible temporary agency work regulations seem to induce a substitution of permanent with temporary contracts.     

The labour market effects of financial crises

This paper examines how the 2008–2009 financial crisis affected labour markets in Europe, and how this impact depended on employment protection laws. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, our estimates isolate the effect of the lack of credit on the labour market from that of the general decline in aggregate economic activity. We find large and negative impacts of the credit shock on total employment, particularly on temporary, unskilled and young workers. These impacts were significantly larger in countries with stronger legal protection of permanent workers from dismissal. This suggests that the differential impact of the crisis across countries was not entirely driven by the heterogeneity of the credit shock, but also by labour regulations. Given regulatory inflexibility in adjusting the permanent workforce, firms responded to tightening financial constraints by disproportionately laying off temporary workers (who tend to be younger and less skilled than permanent workers).     

Determinants of innovation behaviour and investment estimates for west-german manufacturing firms

In this paper, the determinants of innovation behaviour and investment are explored with a large micro-data panel from West-German manufacturing firms. The estimates are discussed within a microeconomic model with monopolistic competition, demand uncertainty and a delayed adjustment of capacities and the production technology. The estimates reveal positive firm-size effects which hint towards scale economies associated with innovations. Market power promotes innovations but not investment, and exporters innovate more but exhibit less investment expenditures. Finally, excess demand promotes innovations. This indicates a complementarity of innovations and investment and hints towards permanent productivity effects of temporary demand shocks.     

MINIMUM WAGE EFFECTS ON PERMANENT VERSUS TEMPORARY MINIMUM WAGE EMPLOYMENT

We estimate the effect of minimum wages on employment using the Master Files of the Canadian Labour Force Survey over the recent period 1997–2008. Particular attention is paid to the differences between permanent and temporary minimum wage workers—an important distinction not made in the existing literature. Our estimates for permanent and temporary minimum wage workers combined are at the lower end of estimates based on Canadian studies estimated over earlier time periods, suggesting that the adverse employment effects are declining over time for reasons discussed. Importantly, the adverse employment effects are substantially larger for permanent compared to temporary minimum wage workers; in fact they fall almost exclusively on permanent minimum wage workers. (JEL J30)     

EXPLAINING THE SPREAD OF TEMPORARY JOBS AND ITS IMPACT ON LABOR TURNOVER

This article provides a simple model that explains the choice between permanent and temporary jobs. This model, which incorporates important features of actual employment protection legislations neglected by the economic literature so far, reproduces the main stylized facts about entries into permanent and temporary jobs observed in Continental European countries. We find that job protection has very small effects on total employment but induces large substitution of temporary jobs for permanent jobs, which significantly reduces aggregate production.     

R&D investment,cash holdings and the financial crisis: evidence from Korean corporate data

This article examines the real effects of the financial crisis in 2008 on corporate R&D investment by analyzing firm-level panel data from 2005 to 2011 obtained from KIS-VALUE, a Korean corporate finance database. I estimate a dynamic panel model of R&D investment that includes an after-crisis dummy to reflect the effects of the external finance supply shock after the financial crisis, an interaction term of the dummy and cash holdings to measure the marginal effect of cash holdings after the crisis, investment opportunities (sales and the q ratio) and financial positions as the debt-equity ratio. The estimation implies a negative yet relatively small impact of the credit supply shock from the financial crisis on R&D investment and the mitigation of the negative impacts by cash holdings after the onset of the financial crisis, whereas the data show decreasing R&D investment and sales for the whole period. Based on the data and the estimation, I find that firms were able to lessen the pressure from diminishing market demand before the crisis using external finance, but they had to use internal financial sources after the crisis smooth R&D investment.     

Are shocks to foreign investment in developing countries permanent or temporary? : Evidence from panel unit root tests

We examine the time path of foreign direct and portfolio investment in developing countries to test if shocks have permanent or temporary effects. Our findings indicate that shock effects are temporary. The results are robust to the strictness of balance of payment controls.     

Equipment Investment and the Relative Demand for Skilled Labor: International Evidence

The effects of equipment investment on relative wages and employment of skilled labor are estimated. The basic hypothesis is that such effects are positive, because of the presence of either equipment–skill complementarity or skill advantage in technology adoption. Using a panel data set for a wide range of countries, the relative wage and relative employment of skilled workers are regressed on lagged investment in machinery and other relevant variables. The results indicate a positive and strong effect of machinery investment on the relative demand for skilled labor, with the relative wage responding much sooner and for a much shorter time than relative employment. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: E24.     

Interest rate policy,effective demand,and growth in LDCs

Orthodox criticisms of ‘financial repression’ in LDCs argue that interest rate liberalization promotes investment and economic growth by increasing the supply of bank credit and improving the efficiency of credit allocation. The present paper develops a Kaleckian model in which increases in deposit interest rates may lower investment and growth by placing downward pressure on effective demand – even if interest rate liberalization results in decreased borrowing costs. The focus of the Kaleckian model on effective demand issues is then contrasted with prior criticisms of the proliberalization view. Finally, the relevance of the Kaleckian approach is demonstrated in connection with the important role of effective demand and distributional effects in the failure of the Chilean financial liberalization to promote a stable growth of output and investment.     

Weaker jobs,weaker innovation. Exploring the effects of temporary employment on new products

This work explores the relationship between temporary employment and product innovation focusing on five major European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands) observed between 1998 and 2012. The analysis distinguishes sectors according to their technological characteristics and regimes finding that industries using temporary employment tend to have a weaker product innovation propensity. The negative correlation between temporary employment and innovation turns out to be stronger in those sectors where tacit firm’s specific knowledge is crucial to the development of innovations. These sectors are identified using both the ‘Cumulativeness’ proxy stemming from Peneder’s classification as well as distinguishing between different Schumpeterian regimes – Schumpeter Mark I vs. II – of knowledge accumulation.     

Labour mobility during transitionEvidence from Georgia1

This article deals with labour mobility in Georgia during economic transition. We use quarterly 1998–99 panel data to examine mobility across six labour market statuses (inactivity, unemployment, formal wage employment, informal wage employment, self‐employment and farming). Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of labour market segmentation. Formal employment is preferred to informal employment. Unemployment is largely a queuing device for individuals with higher education waiting for formal jobs. Some self‐employment is subsistence activities and consistent with a segmented labour market, while other is high risk and potentially high return activities. Age, gender and education are significant determinants of labour mobility. Finally, informal employment serves as a buffer in times of recession – with farming and informal wage employment absorbing labour shed by other statuses during the Russian financial crisis.     

互联网使用、金融素养与金融决策——基于2013-2017年中国家庭金融调查的研究

基于中国家庭金融调查2013—2017年面板数据,本文研究了互联网使用对我国家庭金融素养和金融决策的影响。本文借助2013年“宽带中国”战略实施带来的政策冲击构建工具变量,采用面板工具变量模型识别互联网使用的因果效应。研究发现,互联网使用促进了家庭对正规金融产品的投资,金融素养在二者之间发挥了显著的中介效应。互联网使用还有助于缩小我国城乡家庭在金融素养和金融决策方面的差距。本文为改善我国家庭金融素养和金融决策提供了启示。     

Effect Of Liquidity On Firms' R&D Spending

The effect of firms financial condition on their R&D investment is explored using a relatively long panel data set for five high-technology industries. We find that financial condition, whether measured as cash flow, the stock of liquid assets or the ratio of liquid assets to current liabilities, does affect the R&D spending of small firms. The effect persists after controlling for unobserved permanent firm effects, and the pattern of significance of lagged effects supports the interpretation of causality running from liquidity to R&D. For larger firms, there is no evidence of such an effect. Using these data, we cannot say whether the absence of an effect in larger firms results from better access to capital markets or from higher adjustment costs in R&D.     

Innovation and job creation in a dual labor market: evidence from Spain

This paper studies the effect of product and process innovations on job creation in the Spanish manufacturing sector over the period 1991–2005. We use a change in the employment protection legislation (EPL) in 1997 to study the effect of innovations on permanent and temporary workers before and after that change. We find that (i) product and process innovation created jobs, (ii) before the change in the EPL in 1997 innovations did not affect the number of permanent workers and all the increase in employment was explained by the increase in the number of temporary workers, (iii) after the change in the EPL, innovations increased both the number of temporary and permanent employees, and (iv) while the increase in temporary workers takes place after one year of the innovations, the increase in permanent workers occurs mainly two years after the innovations.     

Regulatory reform in telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper we discuss public policy towards the telecommunications sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), focusing primarily on the need to ensure adequate capital investment. The analysis falls into two main parts: the regulation of monopoly, and policy on liberalization. Concerning regulation, we discuss how policy credibility is likely to be a problem in the region, and how reputational considerations, the design of regulatory institutions, and methods of price control can help to ameliorate this problem. Concerning liberalization, we consider the effects of potential competition on investment incentives, and construct a simple model to analyse the different effects of liberalization and regulatory risk on investment. Some preliminary policy conclusions are drawn, and we argue that in the CEE region – in contrast to more well developed countries – a reasonable case can be made for allowing a temporary period of monopoly for basic services.     

Temporary and Permanent Immigration under Unionization

This paper investigates permanent and temporary immigration and remittance under the coexistence of unionized and non‐unionized manufacturing firms in a two‐sector economy. The impacts of immigration and remittance on respectively wages, employment, the union–non‐union wage gap and national welfare are analyzed. It is found that both permanent immigration (economy‐wide) and temporary immigration in agriculture bring positive effects on most variables (except the competitive wage), but widens the wage gap and causes income redistribution in the host country. However, if temporary immigrants work in manufacturing only, then all wages and the union–non‐union wage gap fall. That is, workers become more equally paid but poorer. In addition, remittance and globalization cause negative effects on union workers and employers. It is perhaps such consequences and the income redistribution effect of immigration that cause the media to paint a negative image of immigration.     

The effect of temporary help jobs on employment volatility

This study investigates the impact of temporary agency employment on employment volatility outside the sector. Making use of econometric volatility models, we find that enhancing numerical flexibility by temporary agency employment decreases employment volatility of incumbent workers. However, not all subgroups are benefitting equally. While prime‐age permanent workers gain considerably from higher flexibility, young workers, migrants and low‐skilled workers not only are overrepresented among the temps but also do not gain when employed outside the sector.     

金融集聚、购房压力对科技创新的时空影响机制:以粤港澳大湾区为例

综合考虑时间与空间两个维度,识别出影响粤港澳大湾区科技创新的关键因素,旨在促进大湾区创新资源整合和创新水平提高。基于粤港澳大湾区11个城市2006-2016年面板数据,采用面板门限模型和空间计量模型来分析区域内金融集聚、购房压力对科技创新的非线性影响机制及空间溢出效应,在此基础上比较行业异质性影响。结果显示:粤港澳大湾区金融集聚对科技创新存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,购房压力对科技创新存在一定程度的负向空间溢出效应。从整个金融业来看,大湾区内金融集聚对科技创新具有显著的促进作用,而购房压力对科技创新没有显著的统计意义上的关系。从金融子行业来看,保险业集聚对科技创新具有显著的正向促进作用,而银行业集聚和证券业集聚对科技创新均没有明显影响。金融(各子行业)集聚与购房压力的互动均对科技创新产生显著的抑制作用;金融集聚、购房压力对科技创新的统计意义上影响具有门限效应,呈现出非线性影响机制。在低、中度购房压力区域内,金融集聚对科技创新具有显著负向影响;在高购房压力区域内,金融集聚对科技创新具有显著正向影响;与此同时,在低、高度金融集聚区域内,购房压力对科技创新没有明显的统计意义上的影响;但在中度金融集聚区域内,购房压力对科技创新具有一定促进作用。地区研发投入、经济发展水平、教育水平、政府扶持政策对科技创新产生积极促进作用,但存在结构性差异。