中国上市公司商业信用 周期性变化的宏观经济动因研究

本文为了揭示中国上市公司商业信用周期性变化的宏观经济动因,构建了一个宏观经济因素影响上市公司商业信用行为的理论分析框架,从宏观和微观两个层面分析了宏观经济发展状况、货币政策和通货膨胀水平对中国上市公司商业信用周期性变化的影响机理。利用中国上市公司季度面板数据进行了实证检验。结果显示,随着货币政策宽松、宏观经济扩张和通货膨胀水平的增加,中国上市公司提供的商业信用净额都显著降低。这些研究结果折射出,当货币政策收紧或宏观经济收缩时,商业信用资金从上市公司部门流向非上市企业部门;反之,当货币政策过度宽松或宏观经济过度扩张时,上市公司部门通过商业信用渠道从非上市企业部门吸纳商业信用资金。     

全要素生产率、人民币汇率与中国贸易收支——基于跨期最优选择理论的实证研究

文章首先以跨期最优分析框架为基础建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型,然后基于中国1999-2009年省际面板数据,运用面板FMOLS估计方法,从全国和地区两个层面对中国全要素生产率、人民币实际汇率与中国贸易收支的关系展开实证分析。研究表明,中国贸易部门内资企业和外资企业的全要素生产率提升均对中国实际贸易余额增长产生了正面影响,其中东部地区的促进作用最为强劲;中国非贸易部门全要素生产率与其实际贸易余额负相关,其中东部和中部地区非贸易部门全要素生产率提升会显著减少该地区的实际贸易差额;人民币实际有效汇率提升对中国实际贸易收支具有显著的负面影响,并按照东部、中部和西部地区依次加重。根据上述分析结果,文章提出了调节中国贸易收支的相关政策建议。     

INDUSTRY TRADE BALANCE AND DOMESTIC MERGER POLICY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM U.S. MERGER POLICY FOR MANUFACTURING SECTORS

The literature on antitrust in an open-economy setting is inconclusive with respect to the role played by trade balance on the tenor of domestic merger policy. Using a panel dataset composed of U.S. merger reviews by industrial sector over the 1982–2001 period, I empirically test the impact of sectoral trade balance on the level of antitrust scrutiny. The results suggest that larger trade balances lead to more vigorous antitrust scrutiny; thus "strategic" merger policy does not appear evident, and consumer surplus appears to guide U.S. merger policy even under the lure of international competitive gains.     

International Trade,Migration and Unemployment – The Role of Informal Sector

This paper provides an elaborate general equilibrium framework by including informal economic activities in a model of trade, migration and unemployment. Existence of informal activities is critical in generating positive employment effects of liberal trade policies. Following a tariff cut informal wage increases and rate of unemployment goes down under reasonable conditions. Next we generalize the benchmark model to capture the phenomenon of sequential migration: from agriculture to urban informal sector, and then to urban formal sector. Positive employment effect of reformatory trade policy partly owes to the fact that the presence of informal sector directly reduces the cost of migration and, hence, further induces the process of outmigration from agricultural sector. The paper also extends the benchmark model to include both informal intermediate and final good.     

Exchange rate devaluation,monetary policy and wages: A general equilibrium analysis for Chile

A range of devaluation, monetary and wage policy mixes are analysed for the Chilean economy using a 10 sector comparative static model built along neoclassical lines. The model, while focusing on the real side of the economy, also contains a simple monetary sector. Quantifying the short-run implications of each policy mix for key macroeconomic and sectoral variables enables judgements to be made about the effectiveness of each mix in reaching specified targets and their feasibility. Money wage flexibility downwards is crucial if balance of trade and employment targets are to be achieved with lower domestic inflation and a smaller nominal devaluation.     

Pollution havens: international empirical evidence using a shadow price measure of climate policy stringency

Given the ambiguous empirical results of previous research, this paper tests whether support for a climate policy-induced pollution haven effect and the pollution haven hypothesis can be found. Unlike the majority of previous studies, the analysis is based on international panel data and includes several methodological novelties: By arguing that trade flows of dirty goods to less dirty sectors may also be influenced by changes in policy stringency, trade information on primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors are included. In order to clearly differentiate between dirty sectors and sectors with high pollution abatement costs, separate measures for pollution intensity and policy stringency are implemented. For the former, two intensities, namely the sectors’ carbon dioxide emission intensity and the emission relevant energy intensity, are used to identify dirty sectors. For the latter, an internationally comparable, sector-specific measure of climate policy stringency is derived by applying a shadow price approach. Potential endogeneity between climate policy stringency, trade openness and the trade balance is controlled for by employing a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimator. The results provide evidence for a pollution haven effect that is also present for non-dirty sectors, i.e., a sector’s net imports rise in general if the sector faces an increase in climate policy stringency. Moreover, a stronger pollution haven effect regarding carbon dioxide intensive and emission relevant energy-intensive sectors is revealed. However, no support for the stronger pollution haven hypothesis can be found.     

A Two‐Country Game of Competition Policies

Recently a number of studies have recognized that trade policy can be substituted for by competition policy. This study demonstrates, however, that there is a fundamental difference in the working of terms‐of‐trade effects between competition policy and tariff policy and that if countries optimally set their respective competition policies, it is unlikely to result in a tariff‐war‐like state in which all countries adopt distortionary policies. Instead, in a Nash equilibrium, one country maintains perfect competition in its domestic service sector while the other country tolerates imperfect competition.     

外贸政策对外商直接投资溢出效应的影响

"巴格瓦蒂假说"表明,外商直接投资的"溢出效应"不是自然产生的,"溢出效应"是否产生以及"溢出效应"的大小取决于东道国一定的经济环境,其中一个重要因素是东道国的外贸政策.本文利用中国1982～2003年的年度序列数据进行实证分析,结果表明我国外贸政策体制对外商直接投资的溢出效应产生不利的影响.其原因是我国外贸政策体制是以重商主义的"出口创汇"思想为基本指导原则的,这使我国的外贸政策仍属于一种保护型政策,因而不利于外商在华投资溢出效应的发挥.     

Sectoral structure, heterogeneous plants, and international trade

I examine the impact of trade policy on manufacturing plant behavior by developing a methodology that addresses both plant heterogeneity and intersectoral resource reallocation. A plant-level microsimulation based upon the industry structure of Bernard et al. (2003) is linked to a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. This linkage permits an analysis of plant-level behavior that encompasses the trade-induced changes in factor prices and consumption patterns. The methodology is applied in the examination of two counterfactual trade policy scenarios on the Chilean manufacturing sector. The results suggest that trade liberalization leads to a reallocation of output toward the most productive producers. This result is driven by two primary causes: (a) a reduction in the price of inputs that promotes the expansion of output by the most productive producers and (b) increased competition from overseas that drives the least productive producers out of the market.     

Exchange rate versus credit policy: Analysis with a monetary model of trade and inflation in India

A general equilibrium model of the trade balance and inflation in India is specified, and empirically analyzed. The model takes into account many important institutional features of India such as foreign exchange rationing, and emphasizes the effects of monetary disequilibrium on the trade balance. Policy simulations compare the dynamic responses to devaluation with the responses to tight credit policy. It is shown that the relative price effects of policies are often significantly offset by perverse liquidity effects which serve to raise absorption. However, the trade balance effects of devaluation are found to be more enduring than those of tight credit policy.     

Optimal Urban Employment Policies: Notes on Calvo and Quibria

We show that Quibria's insightful observation on the efficacy of urban policy in a model with an urban trade union and an urban informal sector holds, but with a revenue-neutral employment tax-subsidy combination levied on the urban employer. We also draw the relevance of the generalized Harris–Todaro model in providing intuition for the validity of this surprising result.     

Trade integration and risk sharing

What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? We study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets and find that this increases the volatility of the trade balance. This result applies regardless of whether supply or demand shocks are the main source of economic fluctuations. Both type of shocks generate fluctuations in the trade balance that are in part moderated by stabilizing movements in the terms of trade. Trade integration dampens these terms of trade movements and, for a given distribution of shocks, amplifies fluctuations in the trade balance. To overturn this result, one must assume that either trade integration is sufficiently biased towards goods with strong comparative advantage and/or risk aversion is sufficiently extreme. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and find that, for reasonable parameter values, increased trade in services could double the volatility of the trade balance.     

A hybrid production structure in trade: theory and implications

In models of pure theory of international trade, no unique production structure is dominant. By grafting a specific factor structure onto a Heckscher–Ohlin framework, in a hybrid general equilibrium production model, this paper presents theoretical results with implications such as: (a) the relative price increase of a traded goods sector might have expansionary or contractionary output effect depending on factor intensities; (b) uniform primary-factor augmenting technical progress in the intermediate inputs sector might lead to a decline in the output of one of the sectors; (c) favorable relative price effect in one sector will lead to a drop in the return to the specific capital type depending on the grafted production structure. The proposed framework is useful for explaining stylized facts related to wage inequality, deindustrialization and export-processing, which have a great policy relevance for trade and development.     

Moving beyond the iceberg model: The role of trade relations in endogenizing transportation costs in computable general equilibrium models

Modeling trade and transportation costs is an essential part of multiregional or spatial computable general equilibrium models where interregional trade plays an important rolein shaping economic activity. The majority of such models use the iceberg trade cost approach where part of the produced output (representing the material costs of transportation) is assumed to melt away during transportation. There are a few models which employ a more refined approach with an explicit transportation sector providing transportation services which are then used to ship goods between locations. In this paper we show that this approach, although much more convenient than the iceberg approach, still lacks full usability due to the fact that markets, hence prices are defined at the regional level and as a result, transportation costs can not be endogenous at the trade relation level. Moreover, under regional level market clearing the iceberg and the more detailed approach are equivalent. We propose to refine the definition of market equilibrium and move it to the trade relation level. Using this approach we can gain full advantage of the explicit transport sector in the model with respect to trade cost evolution. We show through simulations that refining the way trade costs are modelled indeed gains new insights, and that moving the market definition to the trade relational level leads to qualitative changes in the effect of labor supply shocks on main model variables. The paper also presents a method to estimate a SAM by reallocating data from standard industries to a transportation sector which is then consistent with the model setup. This SAM can be used to calibrate the refined model with a detailed transportation sector.     

Optimising and Non‐optimising Balance of Trade Models: A Comparative Evidence from India

This study estimates and compares the competing optimising and non‐optimising balance of trade models using Indian data. The results obtained from the optimising model suggest that the prices relative to user cost of capital and the real wealth lead to a deterioration, while the real capital stock results in an improvement in trade balance. The estimates of conventional non‐optimising balance of trade model show the significant effect of domestic income and real exchange rate and the insignificant effect of world income on the balance of trade. The error correction models reinforce the long run estimates and show the significant effect of lagged equilibria on the balance of trade. The non‐nested hypothesis tests provide mixed evidence for the preference of one model over the other. The J test suggests that the optimising model outperforms the non‐optimising model, while the F test shows that both these models are acceptable in explaining the balance of trade.     

A rational expectations model of the U.K. under floating exchange rates

This paper constructs a model of an open economy with both trade and capital flows. Private sector wealth holders are assumed to be concerned with balance sheet ratios as in a portfolio choice theoretic model. Rational expectations in the strict Muth sense is introduced via the asset allocation decision by the private sector. International trade and capital flows are treated as in the monetary theory of the balance of payments. The model is constructed for the U.K. economy and simulation and forecasting exercises are conducted for the floating period.     

Factor Endowments and Industrial Structure

What determines industrial structure? Do sector‐specific characteristics such as unionization, regulation, and trade policy dominate production patterns? One is inclined to believe so based on countless industry‐level studies and the many political battles that are continually fought over trade and industrial policy. In contrast, standard neoclassical trade theory suggests that industrial structure is primarily driven by relative factor supplies. This paper demonstrates that aggregate factor endowments explain much of the structure of production—independent of industry idiosyncrasies—and quantifies the extent to which shifts in industrial structure in a cross‐section of countries are driven by the broad forces of factor accumulation. These results are reached through an empirical application of the factor proportions model of production.     

Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia

This paper investigates the role played by emerging Asia in the emergence and evolution of the global trade imbalances. Based on simulations in a general-equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that a productivity slowdown in the nontradable sector of these economies in the second half of the 1990s fits regional macroeconomic developments relatively well, but has limited spillover effect to the United States trade balance. In contrast, an increase in the desired level of emerging Asia net foreign assets starting in 2001 not only fits regional developments relatively well, but also has a significant spillover effect to the United States.     

Economic Growth,Terms of Trade and Welfare in an Open Monetary Economy*

The authors investigate the impact of growth on terms of trade, absolute prices and welfare using a two-country, monetary model. Under flexible exchange rates export-biased growth would lead to a decline in the terms of trade if the two countries are ‘similar’. Under fixed exchange rates a weaker condition than the barter condition of export-biased growth is sufficient, namely, for the import commodity the demand creating effect of growth dominates the supply effect while for the exported commodity the opposite holds. Secondly, substitutability between money and commodities indicates that no necessary relation holds between the terms of trade and the trade balance. Thirdly, the introduction of money creates a real balance effect so that decline in terms of trade is no longer a necessary (or sufficient) condition for immiserization. Finally, the paper concludes by questioning two policy conclusions drawn in earlier models: one, that the declining terms of trade of less developed countries was due to a bias in the growth strategy and, two, that monetary models of trade support the ‘monetarist’ proposition that growth and a deteriorating trade balance can only co-exist if the domestic monetary policy is nonneutral.     

FDI and Outsourcing in a Service Industry: Welfare Effects of Liberalising Trade and Investment

This study examines a foreign firm's entry decision and its effects on the host country's welfare in a model with a composite good in which both commodity and service generate utility for consumers. Along with the commodity it produces, a producer can provide the service by itself or outsource the service. The result shows that the incentive for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the service sector increases under liberalising trade in the final‐good market. Moreover, there exist policy combinations of trade and investment liberalisation, whereby the domestic firms' profitability is traded off with the host country's social welfare when the foreign firm provides a service through FDI or through outsourcing, respectively. Finally, the welfare after simultaneously liberalising trade and investment is not necessarily greater than that under autarky.