全球经济失衡、主权财富基金与金融稳定

全球经济失衡导致新兴国家的外汇储备巨额盈余,以外汇储备为资金来源的主权财富基金在此背景下迅速崛起。主权财富基金在全球范围内的大规模跨境投资,给国际金融市场稳定带来了正负两方面的效应。为了维护全球金融市场的健康持续发展,必须从金融稳定的视角,构建主权财富基金的国际监管框架。     

Housing,Illiquidity, and Wealth

This article develops a model of asset allocation relevant for the representative consumer. Consumption is composed of two items: housing, and other goods and services. The representative household's balance sheet consists largely of a house and a mortgage. Its income statement is dominated by labor earnings, constraining cash expenditures. Housing-market behavior thus underlies intertemporal wealth and consumption allocation. With a housing-dominated portfolio and a maximizing plan, a plausible bound on the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution in consumption can be estimated for a typical household. The model takes account of idiosyncratic characteristics of housing returns and finance. Underwriting standards oblige borrowers to secure mortgage debt with a housing asset and with cash flow, usually from labor income. Access to the mortgage market depends on the loan-to-value ratio, or leverage and debt size, and the debt-coverage ratio, or cash solvency. If there are seasonals or predictable patterns in house returns, their magnitude is amplified for the typical liquidity-constrained household. Empirical results for the aggregate U.S. market confirm predictability and serial correlation in house capital gains. There are seasonals in housing returns. While there is no January effect, above-average returns are obtained during the summer months.     

Past Returns and Investment Trust Discounts

Abstract:   The relationship between past net asset value returns and the current discount on investment trusts is investigated. The relationship is weaker for the component that is common to all trusts in the same sector, and is significantly stronger for more liquid trusts. The time lag before returns have their full impact on discounts is consistent with the requirements of distinguishing 'skill' from noise. Although discounts vary widely even within the same sector, the range of variation appears to be consistent with an arbitrage equilibrium, in which the profits of exploiting apparent pricing anomalies are just insufficient to invite arbitrage trades.     

银行利润最大化、效率与ROA

本文依据利润最大化概念分解ROA影响因素,然后再结合效率理论提出eROA(效率ROA)模型,对2003～2010年中国商业银行效率进行分析。结果表明:加入WTO后在去政策性负担和投资拉动型经济增长模式影响下,四大商业银行eROA大幅提高;银行业效率呈现双增长趋同现象;长期发展中,效率与经营稳健性强相关。这一结果也证明了经济增长与金融发展之间的联系。后危机时期国民经济结构调整、经济增长速度放缓和金融体制改革深化将对四大商业银行盈利能力产生较大影响,而对股份制商业银行则影响较弱。     

全球经济失衡与新兴市场经济体主权财富基金的崛起

全球储备失衡和全球债务失衡导致新兴市场经济体持有庞大的对外净债权,新兴市场经济体对外净债权的扩张导致主权财富基金的崛起,这就是当代全球新兴市场经济体主权财富基金崛起的基本逻辑。我们有理由预期,随着全球经济失衡状况的进一步加剧,新兴市场经济体的主权财富基金规模还会持续增长。     

Wealth, Information Acquisition, and Portfolio Choice

I solve (with an approximation) a Grossman-Stiglitz economyunder general preferences, thus allowing for wealth effects.Because information generates increasing returns, decreasingabsolute risk aversion, in conjunction with the availabilityof costly information, is sufficient to explain why wealthierhouseholds invest a larger fraction of their wealth in riskyassets. One no longer needs to resort to decreasing relativerisk aversion, an empirically questionable assumption. Furthermore,I show how to distinguish empirically between these two explanations.Finally, I find that the availability of costly informationexacerbates wealth inequalities.     

Value Maximization,Stakeholder Theory,and the Corporate Objective Function

This paper examines the role of the corporate objective function in increasing corporate productivity, social welfare, and the accountability of managers and directors. Because it is logically impossible to maximize in more than one dimension, purposeful behavior requires a “single-valued” objective function. Two hundred years of work in economics and finance implies that, in the absence of externalities and monopoly, social welfare is maximized when each firm in an economy aims to maximize its total market value. The main contender to value maximization is stakeholder theory, which argues that managers should attempt to balance the interests of all corporate stakeholders, including not only financial claimants, but employees, customers, communities, and governmental officials. By refusing to specify how to make the necessary tradeoffs among these competing interests, the advocates of stakeholder theory leave managers with a theory that makes it impossible for them to make purposeful decisions. With no clear way to keep score, stakeholder theory effectively makes managers unaccountable for their actions (which helps explain the theory's popularity among many managers). But if value creation is the overarching corporate goal, the process of creating value involves much more than simply holding up value maximization as the organizational objective. As a statement of corporate purpose or vision, value maximization is not likely to tap into the energy and enthusiasm of employees and managers. Thus, in addition to setting up value maximization as the corporate scorecard, top management must provide a corporate vision, strategy, and tactics that will unite all the firm's constituencies in its efforts to compete and add value for investors.     

Housing Wealth,Financial Wealth and Consumption Expenditure: The Role of Consumer Confidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the role of consumer confidence on the relationship between two forms of wealth—housing and financial—and four categories of consumption expenditure, which include total consumption, service, durable goods and nondurable goods consumption. This paper uses U.S. quarterly data from 1978 to 2012 for its analysis. Applying the FMOLS estimation method, the results show that consumer confidence has a positive effect on the association between housing wealth and consumption expenditure, whereas its effect on the association between financial wealth and consumption expenditure is negative. The implications of these results are discussed.     

Share Holder Wealth Effects of Corporate Selloffs: Impact of Growth Opportunities, Economic Cycle and Bargaining Power

Most of the existing empirical evidence on corporate selloffs documents significant wealth gains for the seller's shareholders. We investigate the sources of these wealth gains by examining the impact of business and financial strategy, the economic environment during selloff, and the bargaining advantages of the seller including information asymmetry. We find evidence that sellers with growth opportunities and financially strong sellers enjoy higher returns. Selloffs during recessions generate larger wealth gains than those during economic boom. Information asymmetry due to the buyer's location being different from the purchased division's gives the seller a bargaining advantage leading to larger wealth gains. Relatively large divestments are more beneficial to seller shareholders than small ones. The study highlights the importance of both firm specific and environmental factors in explaining the wealth gains associated with corporate selloffs.     

Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these fluctuations in the consumption–wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury bill rate. We also find that this variable is a better forecaster of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than is the dividend yield, the dividend payout ratio, and several other popular forecasting variables. Why should the consumption–wealth ratio forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal models of consumer behavior imply that the log consumption–aggregate wealth (human capital plus asset holdings) ratio summarizes expected returns on aggregate wealth, or the market portfolio. Although this ratio is not observable, we provide assumptions under which its important predictive components for future asset returns may be expressed in terms of observable variables, namely in terms of consumption, asset holdings and labor income. The framework implies that these variables are cointegrated, and that deviations from this shared trend summarize agents' expectations of future returns on the market portfolio.     

股市:居民财富投资和国民经济发展的优先路径

目前,实体企业筹资困难,且筹资成本和用资成本高.推进制造业发展,改革供给侧结构,推动创新创业,都离不开活跃、便捷的筹资市场.在市场经济条件下,居民财富的投资渠道和品种比较多,然而,中国股市的不成熟、不稳健,投资者对股票投资信心不足.从投资回报、财富配置与传导效应等角度研究,认为股票投资回报高,流动性强,对经济推动作用大.从国民经济发展、供给侧结构性改革来看,股市是经济发展、居民财富投资的优先选择路径.     

构建我国和谐社会经济生活秩序的探索

我国社会经济生活中尚有诸多不和谐的因子,要实现构建社会主义和谐社会这一目标,必须对我国当前社会的和谐状况进行科学分析,得出符合我国当前实际的正确判断,在此基础上才能制定出科学的方针政策.     

农村经济组织的金融配套次序

依托产业合作组织延伸发展的信用合作和金融互助,是农村经济合作组织最主要的内生金融配套对策。本文通过对山东省蒙阴县一养殖合作社的融资发展之路进行剖析后认为,内生金融配套是有固定边界的,一旦具有大规模商业开发的价值,银行信贷等外生融资配套将取代内生的信用合作和金融互助。而这一必然次序一旦紊乱,将会带来很大的效率损失。     

Japan and Hong Kong Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Discounts, Returns, and Trading Strategies

Foreign exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade on U.S. exchanges but provide broad exposure to foreign markets. ETFs are designed to minimize the deviation between price and value of the underlying securities. However, nonoverlapping trading hours between the United States and many foreign markets inhibit this mechanism. The data for Japan and Hong Kong iShares show that deviations exist between the ETF price and the value of the underlying securities. The deviations are positively related to subsequent ETF returns creating potential profit opportunities. A simple trading rule based on this observation produces impressive gross returns when compared to a buy-and-hold strategy.     

Dual Domestic Listing, Market Structure and Shareholder Wealth

This paper examines the impact of dual domestic listing of common stocks on shareholder wealth. The sample contains 137 AMEX- and NYSE-listed companies that dually listed their common stocks on the Pacific and Midwest Stock Exchanges between 1984 and 1988. Because the sample stocks do not have unlisted trading privileges, dual listing changes the market structure in which the stocks traded. Changes in market structure may affect stock returns through the liquidity services provided by the competing markets and through the possible nonhomogeneous clientele across markets. Using standard event methodology to examine stock market behavior around dual listing shows that the net effect of dual listing on returns is negative. Such negative returns suggest that corporate managers have reasons for dual domestic listing other than increasing shareholder wealth.     

Market Discounts and Shareholder Gains for Placing Equity Privately

Despite selling at substantial discounts, private placements of equity are associated with positive abnormal returns. We find evidence that discounts reflect information costs borne by private investors and abnormal returns reflect favorable information about firm value. Results are consistent with the role of private placements as a solution to the Myers and Majluf underinvestment problem and with the use of private placements to signal undervaluation. We also find some evidence of anticipated monitoring benefits from private sales of equity. For the smaller firms that comprise our sample, information effects appear to be relatively more important than ownership effects.     

金融素养、家庭财富与家庭创业决策

本文利用2015年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,分析了金融素养、家庭财富与家庭创业决策三者之间的关系。整体上,金融素养的提高显著增加了家庭参与创业的可能性,但家庭参与创业面临着财富约束效应;而金融素养对家庭财富具有替代作用,提高金融素养有效缓解了家庭的财富约束效应,促进家庭参与创业。同时,研究发现家庭财富对家庭创业决策的影响并不存在明显的城乡差异,但金融素养更能缓解农村家庭创业所面临的财富约束效应。另外,提高金融素养能有效缓解家庭的信贷约束,增加其风险偏好,间接地促进创业。     

人民币可兑换、资产价格重估与国民财富积累

我们不仅能从生产经营领域中积累国民财富，也可以从改革开放带来的人民币资产价格重估中，即从金融领域的资产价格重估中获取国民财富。本文从股权资产和货币资产两个方面分析资产价格重估和财富积累的问题。