Decomposing the effect of advertising: What happens in the retail channel?

The diverging interests of manufacturers and retailers famously give rise to the double marginalization problem but have consequences far beyond pricing. Advertising is another marketing instrument that is under the control of the manufacturer but its ultimate effect on consumer demand also depends on retailers’ pricing decisions. We decompose the effect of advertising in the channel and highlight an additional route through which advertising affects sales, namely via the changes in the retail price that a strategic retailer makes in response to changes in demand following manufacturer advertising. The total demand effect of advertising thus comprises the direct effects of advertising on market shares, and the indirect effects coming through adjustments that the retailer makes to the in-store prices of all the brands in a given product category in response to the shifted demand due to advertising. We match advertising data for four different categories (both food and non-food) to store-level scanner panel data, which also include information on wholesale prices. Controlling for wholesale prices, we establish in a reduced-form model that the retailer reacts to manufacturer advertising by changing retail prices instead of simply imposing a constant markup on the wholesale price. To further explore the role of the strategic response of the retailer in a systematic fashion and quantify the effects derived in the decomposition, we estimate a discrete-choice model of demand and determine the magnitude of the direct and indirect effects. We find that the indirect effect of advertising through retailer prices is about half the size of the direct effect, and thus substantively affects advertising effectiveness.     

Technological tying and the intensity of price competition: An empirical analysis of the video game industry

Using data from the 128-bit video game industry I evaluate the impact technologically tying has on the intensity of console price competition and the incentives for hardware firms to tie their produced software to their hardware. Tying occurs when a console hardware manufacturer produces software that is incompatible with rival hardware. There are two important trade-offs an integrated firm faces when implementing a technological tie. The first is an effect that increases console market power and forces hardware prices higher. The second, an effect due to the integration of the firm, drives prices lower. A counterfactual exercise determines technological tying of hardware and software increases console price competition; console makers subsidize consumer hardware purchases in order to increase video games sales, in particular their tied games, where the greatest proportion of industry profits are made. I also determine technological tying to be a dominant strategy for hardware manufacturers when software development costs are low.     

基于Palm OS平台的GPS个人导航软件开发

EXW是一个限制条件较多但目前实际使用频率并不低的较古老的贸易术语。本文认为,EXW不能适用任何运输方式,Vehicle(车辆)是EXW下的基本运输工具并且可以做到使用自有提货车辆;EXW合同下并不涉及承运人,承运人也不能成为EXW下买方的代理人。此外,本文部分地解释了EXW使用较多的原因。     

公共投资规模、居民支付意愿与住宅价格走势——基于中国30省市截面数据的实证检验

在构建公共物品供给与住宅意愿支付价格关系模型的基础上,利用面板数据检验公共资本量对住宅的溢价效应。实证结果表明公共物品供给对住宅的溢价值有很大不同:生态环境投资对住宅的溢价值最高,其次是公共交通投资;教育投资,尤其是高等教育投资的溢价值较高,而以燃气普及率为代表的城市基础设施投资对住宅也有显著的影响。这说明我国城市居民住宅区位需求已经向多元化和生态化方向发展,交通易达性是居民住宅选择的重要组成部分,高等教育环境普遍为城市居民所关注,扩大基础设施投资规模是提高住宅价值的重要手段之一,重新设计房地产税种和税率是我国房地产税制改革的必然选择。     

Indirect network effects and the impact of trade liberalization: A note

In this note, we examine how trade liberalization affects production structure in the presence of indirect network effects (hardware/software systems). For these purposes we construct a simple two-country model of trade with two incompatible hardware technologies. It is shown that, given that both types of hardware exist before trade liberalization, liberalization and increased intra-industry trade in software products may reduce the variety of hardware technology via intensified network effects. It is also shown that, contrary to the findings of previous studies on intra-industry trade, some consumers may become worse off as the result of trade.     

Measuring Prices and Price Competition Online: Amazon.com and BarnesandNoble.com

Despite the interest in measuring price sensitivity of online consumers, most academic work on Internet commerce is hindered by a lack of data on quantity. In this paper we use publicly available data on the sales ranks of about 20,000 books to derive quantity proxies at the two leading online booksellers. Matching this information to prices, we can directly estimate the elasticities of demand facing both merchants as well as create a price index for online books. The results show significant price sensitivity at both merchants but demand at BarnesandNoble.com is much more price-elastic than is demand at Amazon.com. The data also allow us to estimate the magnitude of bias in the CPI due to the rise of Internet sales.     

Estimating cannibalizing effects of sales promotions: The impact of price cuts and store type

To evaluate the financial impact of supermarket sales promotions, managers must estimate how much new demand comes from cannibalizing the base product compared with other sources. However, investigations into cannibalization are scant. Using vector autoregression analytical framework applied to three years of supermarket scanner data, and sales promotions for pound cake, we estimate cannibalization effects for two common price reductions (10% and 15%), across large, medium and small supermarkets. The sales bumps varied across supermarkets for each price cut while cannibalization effects were substantial only in large supermarkets, with moderate effects in medium stores and no effects in small supermarkets.     

考虑零售商销售努力的双渠道供应链定价策略研究

随着电子商务市场的日益成熟,制造商建设线上直销渠道来适应新的商品销售环境成为趋势。制造商线上直销渠道的建立占领了部分原本属于线下零售渠道的市场份额,对线下零售渠道造成冲击。针对双渠道供应链中的竞争,将零售商销售努力行为考虑在内,通过构建博弈模型分别研究了在集中决策模式和分散决策模式下,制造商与零售商的定价策略。研究发现,在集中决策模式下,线下零售渠道与线上直销渠道之间的价格差异随着两个渠道潜在需求量之间差异的增大而增大,并且两个渠道的最优价格分别与其市场潜在需求成正比。在分散决策模式下,两个渠道的最优价格亦与潜在需求成正比,并且线下零售渠道的最优价格随零售商销售努力程度的增加而增加,线上直销渠道的最优价格随着零售商销售努力程度的增加而减少。     

A Micromodel of New Product Adoption with Heterogeneous and Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the Digital Camera Category

We develop an empirical model for the adoption process of a new durable product that accounts for consumer heterogeneity as well as consumers forward-looking behavior. Accounting for heterogeneity is important for two reasons. As the mix of consumers with different preferences and price sensitivities could change over time, firms need to update their marketing strategies. Further, it allows for a variety of shapes for the aggregate adoption process over time. As prices for durable and technology products fall over time with firms continually introducing enhanced products, consumers may anticipate these prices and improvements and delay their purchases in the product category. Forward-looking consumers optimize purchase timing by trading off their utilities from buying the product and their expectations on future prices, quality levels, and brand availability. Such forward-looking behavior will result in price dynamics in the marketplace as price changes today influence future purchases. And it results in different shapes of the new product sales pattern over time by influencing the time to take-off. We show how the parameters of our model can be estimated using aggregate data on the sales, prices, and attributes of brands in a product category. We apply our model to market data from the digital camera category. Our data are consistent with the presence of both heterogeneity and forward looking behavior among consumers. At the product category level, we are able to decompose the effects of the entry of Sony into primary demand expansion and switching from other brands. At the brand level, we find that there exist several segments in the market with different preferences for the brands and different price sensitivities leading to differences in adoption timing and brand choice across segments. For a given brand, we show how the changing customer mix over time has implications for that brands pricing strategies. We characterize how price effects vary across brands and over time and how price changes in a given time period influence sales in subsequent periods. Model comparison and validation results are also provided.     

Negotiating Transfer Prices

We consider a team-investment setting in which transfer prices between two divisions are negotiable. Investments are made independently and simultaneously after the bargaining stage, i.e. with a given transfer price ‘on the table’. Both divisions’ investments jointly affect the sales price of the final product and total revenue. We analyze two transfer-pricing schemes and their corresponding bargaining problems. Both bargaining settings exhibit non-transferable utility because the transfer price not only allocates corporate profit but also affects corporate profit through the incentives it creates for the divisions’ investment and quantity decisions. In particular, we discuss how concepts from bargaining theory can be use used to determine a ‘fair’ agreement concerning the transfer price.     

The impact of firm strategy on performance measures used in executive compensation

We investigate the relationship between firm strategy and the use of performance measures in executive compensation. Our analysis shows that there is an increased emphasis on sales in the determination of executive compensation for firms pursuing a cost leadership strategy, which seek to achieve their competitive advantage through low price and high volume. In contrast, there is a decreased emphasis on accounting measures in firms pursuing a differentiation strategy, which require investments in brand recognition and innovative products, investments that are subject to unfavorable accounting treatment. These results indicate that compensation committees link executive rewards to firm strategy.     

I Want You Back: The Interplay Between Legal Availability and Movie Piracy

Abstract

Although it is well known in the academic literature that anti-piracy measures can reduce the demand for pirated content, there are relatively few papers analyzing how legal availability impacts piracy. In this study, we answer two relevant research questions: (1) Does the availability of movies in legal digital channels reduce the demand for digital piracy? (2) Is the level of piracy prior to a movie’s release in a legal digital channel a reliable signal of legal demand after release? We answer these questions using a unique data set provided by a major motion picture studio. Our data contain 1520 catalog movies introduced to iTunes between April 2011 and April 2012. We find that iTunes availability leads to an 11.8% decrease in monthly piracy. We also find that pre-release piracy positively correlates with post-release electronic sell-through sales but not with video-on-demand sales.     

Bayesian Analysis of Simultaneous Demand and Supply

In models of demand and supply, consumer price sensitivity affects both the sales of a good through price, and the price that is set by producers and retailers. The relationship between the dependent variables (e.g., demand and price) and the common parameters (e.g., price sensitivity) is typically non-linear, especially when heterogeneity is present. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian method to address the computational challenge of estimating simultaneous demand and supply models that can be applied to both the analysis of household panel data and aggregated demand data. The method is developed within the context of a heterogeneous discrete choice model coupled with pricing equations derived from either specific competitive structures, or linear equations of the kind used in instrumental variable estimation, and applied to a scanner panel dataset of light beer purchases. Our analysis indicates that incorporating heterogeneity into the demand model all but eliminates the bias in the price parameter due to the endogeneity of price. The analysis also supports the use of a full information analysis.     

Technological Resource Leveraging and the Internationalisation of New Ventures

A growing body of research on international entrepreneurship suggests that new ventures have succeeded in entering international markets by creatively exploiting their tangible and intangible technological resources. Using the resource-based view of the firm, this paper explores the impact of leveraging selected tangible and intangible technological resources on the speed and degree of sales internationalisation among US software new ventures. Even though R&D investments are not significant predictors of the speed or degree of sales internationalisation, technological networks and technological reputations are. The interactions of networks and reputation with R&D spending are also positively and significantly associated with higher sales internationalisation. Technological networks also interact positively with R&D spending to expedite sales internationalisation, but the interaction of these investments with technological reputations is not significant. The results show that intangible technological resources play an important role in the internationalisation of software new ventures' sales. The implications of the findings for future international entrepreneurship research are discussed.     

The Indirect Impact of Price Deals on Households’ Purchase Decisions Through the Formation of Expected Future Prices

We examine the indirect impact of price deals, which occurs through the formation of expected future prices, on households’ purchase decisions. Two competing learning processes of households’ formation of expected future deals that lead to opposite predictions are proposed. Under a deal-probability learning process, a current deal on a brand raises households’ expectations of a deal on the same brand in the immediate future, while under a deal-timing learning process, a current deal on a brand lowers households’ expectations of a deal on the same brand. We embed each learning specification within a comprehensive econometric framework that simultaneously examines three purchase decisions – incidence, brand choice and quantity – at the household level, while explicitly correcting for two sources of selectivity bias in discrete quantity outcomes. We estimate the proposed model using scanner panel data on paper towels, and find that (1) the deal-probability learning process better describes how households incorporate the deal information into the formation of future price expectations compared to the deal-timing learning process; (2) the indirect impact of price deals is greater for brand-loyals than for brand-switchers; (3) the indirect impact of price deals is greater for larger families, heavy users, less educated and less employed households, and infrequent shoppers. We also show that ignoring the indirect impact of price deals severely overstates the sales effects.     

Consumer responses to price discrimination: Discriminating bases, inequality status, and information disclosure timing influences

This study broadly explores consumers' perceived unfairness, negative emotions, internal reference price, and store choice under five common methods of price discrimination using two experimental studies. Study 1 investigates the interaction between discriminating bases and inequality status. Results reveal that discriminating bases only influence perceived unfairness for advantaged consumers, but affect all four responses for disadvantaged consumers. For disadvantaged consumers, direct discrimination that complies with social norms evokes the weakest unfavorable responses, whereas direct discrimination against social norms triggers the highest perception of unfairness and negative emotions but has similar effects on internal reference price and store choice to indirect discrimination. Study 2 examines the effect of information disclosure timing by comparing pre- and post-purchase disclosure policies. Results show that post-purchase disclosure of discrimination information elicits higher negative emotions for indirect discrimination involving coupon and purchase quantity, but is rather inconsequential for direct discrimination or indirect discrimination through membership.     

Substitution or Promotion? The Impact of Price Discounts on Cross-Channel Sales of Digital Movies

Technology is transforming the marketing function in many ways, and this transformation is particularly apparent for information goods such as movies where digital technologies provide marketers with new distribution channels, which in turn create new opportunities for cross-channel effects. However, these digital channels also provide researchers with new opportunities to measure micro-level customer behavior to understand the impact of cross-channel effects in real-world settings.In this paper, we study cross-channel effects between movies sold in digital purchase (commonly known as Electronic Sell Through or EST) and digital rental (commonly known as Video-On-Demand or VOD) markets. We do this using a unique sales dataset from a major digital movie retailer provided by a major movie studio. Our analysis takes advantage of a 14-week field experiment that allows us to measure the impact of price discounts on own- and cross-channel sales. We use this experiment to estimate own and cross price elasticities, whether price discounts cannibalize future sales, and most importantly whether price discounts in one channel affect sales for the same product in a presumably competing channel.Our analysis indicates that digital movie consumers are highly sensitive to price promotions. However, we also find that, contrary to expectations, price promotions in a digital sales channel for a movie do not seem to cannibalize digital rentals. Indeed, our results suggest that, if anything, price promotions for digital movie sales can increase digital rentals. We explore a variety of explanations for this counterintuitive result, including the possibility that the ease of information transmission online through third-party websites, blogs, and online discussion areas may create information spillovers such that price discounts in one channel may increase product awareness in other competing sales channels. From a managerial perspective, our results suggest that cross-channel cannibalization can be reduced or even reversed in the presence of information spillovers, and that there are many new opportunities for marketers to directly measure these cross-channel effects using experimental data from online platforms.     

The promoter's role in ticket pricing: Implications of real options for optimal posted prices and rationing

We consider the problem of pricing event tickets for initial sale when demand is uncertain. It is a standard industry practice for a performer to contract with a promoter who underwrites the event and offers the tickets for sale at a posted price that is sticky in that it is either fixed or costly to adjust once sales begin. Promoters, therefore, bear price risk, and we show that bearing the risk associated with posting a sticky offer price amounts to writing a put option on the ticket revenue. Further, we show that optimal posted-offer prices can be expected to result in rationing (surpluses) if price uncertainty and price elasticity of demand are material (immaterial), even when the demand forecast is accurate. Our results have implications for a more general set of pricing problems in which items are offered for sale at sticky posted prices.     

A comparative analysis of marketing promotions and implications for data analytics

Retailers use many different marketing promotions to increase sales and profits. These promotions include price reductions, coupons, cash mail-in rebates, free gift cards, and buy-one-get-one (BOGO) discounts. The type of promotion used results in different outcomes for demand, profit, average price, consumer surplus, and sales taxes collected. We perform comparative analysis of these five promotions and their outcomes. We show that for the same discount amount, price reductions result in the lowest average price. For products with weakly diminishing consumer utility and low consumer stockpiling, BOGO promotions result in the largest demand, profit, consumer surplus, and taxes collected. Cash mail-in rebates may result in large profit and taxes collected, but they perform poorly in terms of average price paid and consumer surplus. We also find that a retailer offering a delayed incentive (i.e. gift cards and mail-in rebates) offers a larger reward but provides lower consumer surplus than when offering an immediate incentive (i.e. price reduction and BOGO). In a segmented market with a price-insensitive consumer segment, immediate incentives have the disadvantage of allowing price-insensitive consumers arriving during the promotion to obtain the discount, which reduces the discount effectiveness. The addition of more retailer objectives to maximizing profit, such as demand maximization or consumer surplus, increases the effectiveness of immediate incentives. We also provide a framework for estimating the important parameters for evaluating promotion effectiveness using readily available transactional data and examine its accuracy using a simulation experiment.     

网上商品热销的影响因素探析——基于分位数回归的实证研究

本研究从网上销售的影响因素出发,采用搜索程序获取了淘宝网的4059个货架1周的销售数据,通过分位数回归方法对不同热门程度产品的价格、信誉、保障标记以及口碑的需求弹性进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,随着产品热门程度的提高,信誉的需求弹性不断增强,而价格、保障标记以及口碑的需求弹性却不断减弱。由此表明,产品的价格降低,保障标记级别和口碑的提升都能使销售趋于分散,而提高商家的信誉却能加速销售向热门产品集中,使得"热门更热"。