我的风险投资观

作者在本文中提出:(1)风险投资家与创业企业家之间是一种合作博弈关系,如果把创业企业家比作“千里马”，风险投资家则是“伯乐”，千里马必须精心喂养，如果只让它吃普通草料，甚至经常吃不饱肚子，千里马终将成为一匹驽马，因此风险投资家必须对企业提供个性化的增值服务。（2）培育上市公司是风险投资的一项战略任务，它类似于将0℃的冰块加热到100℃升华为水蒸气，是一个长期的艰苦创业的过程，需要风险投资家与创业企业家的串难与共和密切配合，（3）兼并收购在风险投资的现实操作中难度较大，不应成为风险投资的主要退出方式，中国迫切需要一个多层次的资本市场体系，更需要创业企业家转变观念和塑造一个健康的创业文化氛围，（4）搞好风险投资的退出工作应该从源头抓起，作者倡导出口导向型投资，联合投资，链条式投资和规模投资的理念，主张风险投资与投资银行应该加强全作。     

基于声誉机制的风险投资与风险企业博弈分析

在资本市场中，风险投资活动以风险投资家和风险企业的合作为基础。同时，风险投资与风险企业也存在着信息不对称，双方在相互寻找和选择的过程中进行着博弈。研究如何建立风险投资与风险企业之间的合作机制，抑制博弈过程中可能会出现的机会主义行为，将对风险投资活动起到重要的指导作用。     

风险投资中的双重委托代理问题及解决之道

参与风险投资的风险投资者、风险投资家与风险企业家之间存在双重委托代理关系,从而造成逆向选择与道德风险。文章分析了这种委托代理关系,并且提出风险投资者对风险投资家、风险投资家对风险企业家的激励与约束机制。     

风险投资中的双重委托代理问题及解决之道

参与风险投资的风险投资者、风险投资家与风险企业家之间存在双重委托代理关系,从而造成逆向选择与道德风险。文章分析了这种委托代理关系,并且提出风险投资者对风险投资家、风险投资家对风险企业家的激励与约束机制。     

对风险投资家的激励机制研究——基于声誉效应和棘轮效应的分析

本文从声誉效应和棘轮效应的角度分析了单一投资家模型与相对业绩比较模型两种情况下两种效应对风险投资家的激励作用,给出了这两种情况下提高风险投资家努力程度的基本条件,并证明了在满足一定条件时相对业绩比较能更有效地改进投资契约,强化激励机制。     

风险投资运作中的三方博弈分析

风险投资领域中因信息不对称导致的道德风险问题远较一般行业严重,进一步加大了风险投资的风险。投资者、风险投资家和风险企业家的策略选择直接影响风险投资的运作效率、最终收益及风险投资业的发展。本文构建三方博弈模型具体分析投资者、风险投资家与风险企业家的策略选择与博弈结果,找出了主要影响因素,提出通过制度设计改变主要影响因素的量值以促进风险投资家与风险企业家选择高努力低败德的策略,从而促进风险投资业的健康发展。     

中国风险投资发展的制约因素及其政策选择

我国风险投资存在诸如风险资本总量严重不足、运行不规范、生存空间狭窄等制约因素。要发展中国的风险投资业，必然做好风险资本与增长机会，风险投资家与风险企业家、投资与融资、政府鼓励政策与个人寻求经济利益动机四个方面的结合。     

基于双重道德风险下风险投资组合中最优项目数量确定的研究

风险投资过程中,当项目在签订合同后需要风险投资家与风险企业家的共同努力,而双方的努力不可预测时,则可能存在双重道德风险。本文是从双方道德风险的角度,探讨当风险投资组合中项目数量及收益分配比例都是内生的情况时,风险投资家为了实现自身投资效益最大化将如何确定最优项目数量的问题。     

众VC烘烫中芯国际

在低谷时进入，高潮时收回投资被认为是符合芯片产业规律的，因此风险投资家也乐于在此时解囊资助。     

如何成为风险投资家

如果你想成为风险投资家，那么，哪些是你需要了解的？职业阶梯是怎样的？以哪儿作为起点？本文会给你一个初步的介绍     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.