通货膨胀影响因素分析

近年来,我国的通货膨胀情况日趋严峻,物价迅猛上涨,对人民的日常消费有着直接而重要的影响。由于对通货膨胀内涵的认识不一,对通货膨胀的衡量也有不同标准。目前,衡量通货膨胀率的指数主要有CPI(居民消费价格指数)、WPI(零售价格指数)和GDP平减指数。本文浅析通货膨胀的影响因素,提出了应对通货膨胀的对策。     

论现行消费物价指数编制的缺陷与更新

消费物价指数(CPI)是反映一定时期内一定阶层的居民所消费的商品和服务价格变动的指针，它反映一个国家或一个地区不同时期生活费的变动程度，是各个国家通货膨胀的经济晴雨表，现行消费物价指数样本的代袁性、有关各类零售商品结构、服务结构权数的确定等都还不够十分严密，不十分科学，需要借鉴有关发达国家的物价指数资料，结合中国实际情况，从物价指数本身的特性和应具有的功能，以及物价指编制中存在的问题入手，对现行物价指数加以更新。     

股票收益率与通货膨胀关系的研究

股票收益率与通货膨胀之间的关系一直以来受到诸多学者们的关注,根据费雪效应理论,当经济社会存在通货膨胀时,金融资产的收益率也会随之上升。文章将国家统计局公布的消费者物价指数进行连续化处理,用其环比增长率作为通货膨胀率,利用向量自回归模型(VAR)实证分析了我国上证综指月度收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系。研究结果显示,通货膨胀并没有对股票收益产生显著的影响,股票市场并不能抵御通货膨胀带来的财富缩水,不能有效地实现财富的保值升值。     

我国通货膨胀过程的社会福利成本度量与经验分析

通过利用1994年至2006年之间的我国GDP、M1和名义利率的季度数据,采用协整检验和回归系数估计方法,获得我国长期货币需求函数,在此基础上对我国通货膨胀的社会福利成本进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,我国较高的通货膨胀率会带来比较大的福利成本,因此,当前通胀压力较大的时期,采取适当的宏观调控措施,将通货膨胀率控制在3%以下的低水平状态。     

中国区域金融创新研究

改革开放的政策给我国经济发展带来了很大的机遇。各个地区利用各自优势和国家政策积极开拓市场,招商引资,金融业迅速发展。但我国国情复杂,各个区域存在差异,导致我国不同区域经济水平差异较大。全球金融危机导致我国GDP增长速率减小。面对我国基本情况,利用不同区域的优势,加强区域经济发展,增强区域金融创新,可促进我国经济增长。     

新时期个人所得税免征额调整现状与对策

个人所得税开征三十多年来,个人所得税已是我国第四大税种,2010年占税收总额的6.6%,其中工薪阶层承担了65%的个税税款。针对收入分配差距,"十一五"期间个税曾调整过两次,主要是提高了免征额,但收效甚微,居民收入差距进一步拉大,分配不公现象凸现。为了更好地体现公平原则以及拉动消费增长,建议调整免征额应考虑地区差异,通货膨胀率或者物价指数变化。     

基于ARCH模型的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)研究

为了看出以CPI度量的美国通货膨胀率中是否存在ARCH效应,本文收集了从1947年2月至2009年8月的CPI数据,从实证上说明了美国消费者物价指数存在ARCH效应,并建立了ARCH(2)模型。     

我国城乡居民消费结构对比分析

长期以来,我国城乡二元经济结构导致我国城乡居民之间存在收入差距较大、社会观念不同等问题,并且由此引发了其消费水平差距较大、消费结构差异较大等问题。近年来,党和国家始终将扩大居民消费尤其是扩大农村居民消费作为经济发展的重要目标。本文通过对比我国城乡居民消费结构的差异,找到我国农村消费在现阶段落后于城镇居民消费的主要原因,从而为提升我国农村消费提出有效的政策途径。     

中国货币需求函数实证分析

货币政策是否合理,直接关系到央行的货币政策能否有效的运行。一般而言,GDP、利率、通货膨胀率,汇率(外汇储备)等因素都会不同程度的影响到货币的需求量,因此,研究货币需求与产出、利率、通货膨胀率等经济变量间的相互关系并建立适合我国的货币需求函数,具有重要的意义。     

对我国现行城镇居民消费价格指数编制方法的探讨

居民消费价格指数是一项反映居民生活受物价变动影响程度的重要经济指标,也是政府正确制定工资及其它社会福利政策的重要依据。随着市场经济的逐步发展,我国城镇居民的收入水平已出现差异,消费水平也分出层次。在利用现有的条件下,及时增设统计指标,建立分层次物价指数,从而更全面、更深入地反映不同收入层受消费物价指数变动的影响程度,更好地为政府的宏观决策提供依据。     

Increasing Inflationary Pressure

China＇s CPI rose to 8.7 percent in February after hitting 7.1 percent in January,creating a 12-year high, the National Bureau of Statistics said.The figure exceeded market expectations,as the Bank of China,the country＇s second- largest lender,     

The Colombian Stock Market: 1930-1998

Abstract

This article studies the behavior of the stock market in Colombia with the information given by the Bolsa de Bogota Index (Indice de la Bolsa de Bogota, IBB). The index is analyzed from January, 1930 to December, 1998. The inflation rate covers the same period; the inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The results of this analysis show that monthly and per annum return-nominal and real-are well below from the expected return of any financial investor. A first hypothesis to explain this is that the investor and entrepreneurs receive benefits that are non-measurable in terms of economic return. Also it can be said that inflation is negative to the return at the stock market, thus: the larger the inflation rate, the smaller the real return. It is shown that the market does not anticipate the future inflation, and of course it is not included in the actual price. Probabilities for selected real return values are presented. The probability to obtain a real return greater than 0% and other values (5%, 10%, 12% and 18%) as well, is much less than 50%. This might show that investing at the stock market is just gambling.     

Housing preferences during the pandemic: effect on home price,rent, and inflation measurement

Business Economics - With shelter comprising a one-third weight in the Consumer Price Index, an accurate measure of rent change is essential for determining factors affecting inflation measurement,...     

“Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions

Inflation expectations are believed to influence actual inflation and therefore policymaker actions. However, methods usually employed to evaluate inflation expectations are insufficient. Survey methods either record economists’ forecasts of the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) (which isn’t what policymakers need to know) or consumers’ attempts to calculate their own inflation experience. Consumers have little chance to perform the calculations needed to accurately compute inflation. I propose functional forms to substitute for the heuristics consumers actually use to form inflation perceptions. I also propose adjustments to reconcile official price measurements with consumers’ perceptions. These adjustments are corrections for cognitive biases related to loss aversion and mental accounting.     

Market Reaction to Information Shocks—Does the Bloomberg and Briefing.com Survey Matter?

Bloomberg and Briefing.com provide competing forecasts for prescheduled macroeconomic announcements. This study examines the accuracy of these forecasts and market reactions to announcement surprises. Our results show that the Bloomberg survey is slightly more accurate than the Briefing.com survey. More importantly, although announcement surprises based on both surveys have a significant effect on the trading activities and returns of S&P 500 futures contracts, the Bloomberg survey subsumes the explanatory power of the Briefing.com survey. The findings suggest that on average Bloomberg forecasts are more consistent with the market consensus view. In addition, we provide evidence of asymmetric market reactions to positive versus negative announcement surprises. In particular, the market reacts strongly to inflation news in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) announcements and negative shocks in housing price, personal spending, and retail sales.     

An econometric assessment of the Canadian wage and price control program: 1975:4–1977:4

This paper presents an econometric assessment of the Canadian Wage and Price Control Program. The assessment is specifically designed to determine whether controls have been effective in reducing the long-run inflation rate in Canada. The method of evaluation of the control program is to compare the behavior of inflation under controls to the behavior which would have occurred in the absence of controls. In addition, the paper analyzes inflation in the post-control period to test for the “catch-up” phenomenon. The results suggest that the control program exercised a permanent effect on the inflation rate.     

Budget Allocation Patterns of African Americans

The Consumer Expenditure Survey (1980–1992), Consumer Price Index (1980–1992), and ACCRA Cost of Living Index (1990) are used to construct annual household expenditure data from 1980 to 1992 to compare household budget allocation patterns of African Americans to Asian Americans, Caucasian Americans, and Hispanic Americans. Using the LA/AIDS demand system, researchers found that African American households have statistically significantly different budget allocation patterns in more than half of the 13 expenditure categories investigated in this study, after controlling for other socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.     

Recent Controversies over CPI Methodology

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has often been the subject of controversy. Historically, the most prominent critics have argued that the CPI overstates changes in the cost of living. Recently, however, some in the investment community and business media have argued that the CPI is an underestimate of inflation. Some have accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) not only of errors but also of willfully misrepresenting price change. These arguments have not been addressed to the BLS directly, and in many cases, they reflect serious misunderstandings about how the BLS produces the CPI. In this article, we address each of the key issues in turn.     

Price adjustment strategy under conditions of high inflation: An empirical examination

Price adjustment strategy is a central problem to businesses operating under conditions of high inflation. Three different approaches to the problem are presented and some of their implications tested empirically by means of a unique data set. The empirical observations do not support any of the three traditional approaches.     

Modernizing data collection for the Consumer Price Index

Business Economics - This article discusses collection of data by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for use in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the new approaches BLS is taking to modernize...