经济政策不确定性对人寿保险需求的影响

根据背景风险理论推测,经济政策不确定性作为一类不可保的宏观政策风险,可能对保险需求变动产生影响。本文利用Baker等(2013)测算的中国经济政策不确定性指数,实证检验了经济政策不确定性对中国各省人寿保险需求变动的影响,以及在不同异质性条件下的影响差异。结果发现:第一,经济政策不确定性对寿险需求有显著正影响,且其在经济周期的不同阶段存在显著差异;第二,教育水平的提升会一定程度促进经济政策不确定性对寿险需求的正影响;第三,经济政策不确定性对不同类型寿险需求的影响存在差异,具有保障功能的普通寿险和投资收益灵活稳健的万能险需求受到显著正影响;最后,经济政策不确定性对人寿保险保费增长的影响主要集中在新单保费。因此,政府部门应在保证经济政策连贯性的同时,提升民众的教育水平和避险意识,引导其主动购买保险,尽量降低政策波动产生的影响,分类推进不同类型人寿保险市场的扩大。     

The Effects of Uncertainty on the Demand for Health Insurance

This article analyzes the effects of uncertainty and increases in risk aversion on the demand for health insurance using a theoretical model that highlights the interdependence between insurance and health care demand decisions. Two types of uncertainty faced by the individuals are examined. The first one is the uncertainty in the consumer's pretreatment health and the second is the uncertainty surrounding the productivity of health care. Comparative statics results are reported indicating the impact on the demand for insurance of shifts in the distributions of pretreatment health and productivity of health care in the form of first‐order stochastic dominance, Rothschild–Stiglitz mean‐preserving spreads, and second‐order stochastic dominance. The demand for insurance increases in response to a Rothschild–Stiglitz increase in risk in the distribution of the pretreatment health provided that the health production function is in a special class and the price elasticity of health care is nondecreasing in the pretreatment health. Provided also that the demand for health care is own‐price inelastic, the same conclusion is obtained when the uncertainty is about the productivity of health care.     

Stimulating the Demand for Insurance

This article acts as a review and also a guide to policymakers who are interested in understanding the determinants of insurance demand and how it affects general economic development. By providing a synopsis and evaluation of existing empirical research on the development of insurance markets, this article provides a discussion of the factors that promote insurance market development. This article then highlights certain issues that both insurance companies and policymakers can utilize further in their own markets to design future policies that can be geared to promote insurance market development.     

Strategic Demand for Insurance

We focus on the corporate demand for insurance under duopoly. We consider the case in which firms purchase insurance in order to enhance their competitiveness. We show that a higher level of corporate insurance makes a firm more aggressive and its competitor less aggressive in the output market (strategic effect). The optimal coverage of insurance is determined by comparing the strategic effect of insurance and the cost of insurance. The optimal coverage is positive if the strategic effect is greater than the cost of insurance. An interesting implication is that a risk‐neutral firm may purchase actuarially unfair insurance. The main strategic effect of insurance comes from the fact that firms purchase insurance before they produce outputs. Insurance makes firms more aggressive due to the limited risk costs of firms.     

The Demand for Life Insurance Policy Loans

Previous research has examined the demand for life insurance policy loans using aggregate policy loan data. In contrast, we use a detailed household survey data set containing life insurance and policy loan information to alternatively, and in some cases more directly, examine the four hypotheses traditionally associated with policy loan demand. Our research provides the first U.S. evidence (in the post–World War II period) in support of the policy loan emergency fund hypothesis. In particular, we find that the more detailed emergency fund proxies used here reveal a significantly positive relation between loan demand and recent expense or income shocks.     

The Liquidity Demand for Corporate Property Insurance

This article suggests that liquidity may be an important reason for a corporation to purchase property insurance. A model of a risk‐neutral producer facing an endogenously determined risk of property damage under an output contract that penalizes underproduction is formulated to exemplify such a real need of liquidity. Under the output contract, the producer may purchase full unfavorable property insurance even when postloss financing is available. Surprisingly, the conclusion may still hold when the cost of postloss financing equals that of long‐term capital, provided that the rate of underproduction penalty is sufficiently high. Similar conclusions apply when postloss financing is replaced by planned internal reserve (self‐insurance) that may be invested in the short run at an interest rate that is lower than the long‐term cost of capital. When the capital market is perfect, however, the holding of planned internal reserve eliminates the purchase of actuarially unfavorable property insurance.     

On the Demand for Portfolio Insurance

While insurers manage underwriting risk with various methods including reinsurance, insurers increasingly manage asset risk with options, futures, and other derivatives. Previous research shows that buyers of portfolio insurance pay considerably for downside protection. We add to this literature by providing the first evidence on the cost of portfolio insurance, the payoff to portfolio insurance, and the relative demand for portfolio insurance across VIX levels. We find that the demand for portfolio insurance is relatively high at low levels of VIX, suggesting purchasers demand more downside protection when this protection is cheap on an absolute basis (but expensive on a relative basis). We also provide the first evidence on the hedging behavior of specific investor classes and show that the demand for portfolio insurance is driven by retail investors (individuals) who buy costly insurance from institutional investors. Results are consistent with other types of paradoxical insurance‐buying behavior.     

重大灾害冲击、政府救助行为与保险需求

本文选取非典时期全国208个城市416组数据,对非典疫情与商业健康保险需求的关系进行实证研究.研究发现:(1)针对保险需求不足的问题,利用保费补贴来补救的方法是可行的.(2)证实了人们在灾前灾后对风险发生的主观概率呈先低估后高估的特点,同时证明了最优承保水平与人们对灾害风险可能发生的主观概率之间存在正相关关系.(3)重大灾害事件发生之前,公众对政府灾后救助的预期会对灾前保险购买需求产生挤出效应,但需要满足两个重要前提:保险公司公平定价以及个人绝对风险厌恶递减.     

The Demand for Insurance With an Upper Limit on Coverage

The demand for insurance is examined when the indemnity schedule is subject to an upper limit. The optimal contract is shown to display full insurance above a deductible up to the cap. Some results derived in the standard model with no upper limit on coverage turn out to be invalid; the optimal deductible of an actuarially fair policy is positive and insurance may be a normal good under decreasing absolute risk aversion. An increase in the upper limit would induce the policyholder with constant absolute risk aversion to reduce his or her optimal deductible and therefore this would increase the demand for insurance against small losses.     

The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries

This article examines the determinants of life insurance consumption in OECD countries. Consistent with previous results, we find a significant positive income elasticity of life insurance demand. Demand also increases with the number of dependents and level of education, and decreases with life expectancy and social security expenditure. The country's level of financial development and its insurance market's degree of competition appear to stimulate life insurance sales, whereas high inflation and real interest rates tend to decrease consumption. Overall, life insurance demand is better explained when the product market and socioeconomic factors are jointly considered. In addition, the use of GMM estimates helps reconcile our findings with previous puzzling results based on inconsistent OLS estimates given heteroscedasticity problems in the data.     

Exclusions and the Demand for Property Insurance

The paper examines property insurance contracts in which consumers choose the upper limit on coverage. Exclusions are of two types, and both reduce the demand for insurance of the included perils. A practical implication is that an insurer can raise the demand for fire insurance by offering an earthquake rider, and profit from the rider even when the premia are ceded in such a way that the rider does not raise profit directly. The results do not require assumptions about correlations between included and excluded losses, which is interesting because correlations are decisive in most of the other literature on background risk.     

The Price Elasticity of Demand for Whole Life Insurance

In this study a real price index is created for whole life insurance sold in the United States from 1953 to 1979. New purchases of whole life insurance are shown to be negatively related to changes in this cost index, contrary to what has been widely accepted in the insurance literature, but consistent with economic theory. The existence of strong price elasticity of demand for whole life insurance does not ensure, however, that the insurance industry manifests a high degree of price competition.     

货币政策的保险需求传导效应——基于中国的实证研究

选取2000年1月至2010年12月的月度数据,运用单位根检验、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验等当代主流的计量经济学研究方法,建立结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),并运用脉冲响应函数对我国货币政策保险需求渠道的运作机制和传导效果进行深层次的长期静态分析和短期动态分析。实证结果表明我国货币政策的保险需求传导机制是存在的。     

An Analysis of the Demand for Earthquake Insurance

This research examines the decision to purchase earthquake insurance by analyzing data on earthquake insurance price and penetration in the New Madrid fault zone in Missouri. Earthquake risk is of concern to consumers, the insurance industry, industry regulators, and government agencies because of the potentially catastrophic nature of losses resulting from a major earthquake. Despite the significance of the earthquake peril, the recent literature does not contain estimates of the price and income elasticity of the demand for earthquake insurance. Our analysis indicates that homeowners acquire earthquake insurance because of risk considerations, at higher levels of risk the demand for earthquake insurance is higher, and the price of earthquake coverage does not provide incremental information in explaining the demand for earthquake coverage.     

The Impact of the European Union Insurance Directives on Insurance Company Stocks

This article examines the impact of the passage of the Second and Third Life and Non‐Life European Insurance Directives on insurance firms located in 14 European Union countries, Norway, and Switzerland. The third directives have a wealth effect on the European insurance market, while the second directives do not. The Third Life Directive resulted in a wealth increase for the European insurance market, while the Third Non‐Life Directive had a modest negative wealth effect. The wealth effects differ at both the country and firm level. The directives have differential impacts on firms depending on the firms’ characteristics and those of the market they operated in prior to the directives. Regression results indicate that the second directives have impacted firms in protected markets negatively, especially those with higher debt and higher returns on assets. At the time of the third directives, insurance firms benefited, even those in previously protected markets, indicating that firms may have positioned themselves in preparation for the liberalization of the laws.     

An Examination of the Demand for Life Insurance

For almost 50 years researchers have sought to explain consumer behavior concerning the purchase of life insurance. This study examines the literature relating to specific demographic and economic factors that may be identifiable as traits influencing the demand for life insurance, and discusses general environmental issues that may relate to life insurance demand. By organizing the wealth of literature in a useful and systematic format, noting consistencies and contradictions, this examination seeks to provide a better understanding of how and why life insurance purchases are made.     

农业巨灾保险的需求意愿及其影响因素

本文基于六省市的调查数据,对农民的农业巨灾保险需求意愿进行了特征性描述。并采用Logistic回归模型分别对有无政府补贴情况下,农民对农业巨灾保险的需求意愿及其影响因素进行分析,同时还对农民购买农业巨灾保险意愿的稳定性及其影响因素进行检验。结果表明,政府补贴能有效释放农业巨灾保险的潜在需求。是否参加过农业专业或合作组织、农民文化程度、家庭总收入、农业巨灾风险发生频率以及家庭拥有土地规模等因素显著影响农民对农业巨灾保险需求意愿的稳定性,并能促成农民购买农业巨灾保险行为的发生。     

Stock Options and the Corporate Demand for Insurance

This article shows that a corporate manager compensated in stock options makes corporate decisions to maximize stock option value. Overinvestment is a consequence if risk increases with investment. Facing the choice of hedging corporate risk with forward contracts on a stock market index fund and insuring pure risks the manager will choose the latter. Hedging with forwards reduces weight in both tails of corporate payoff distribution and thus reduces option value. Insuring pure risks reduces the weight in the left tail where the options are out‐of‐the‐money and increases the weight in the right tail where the options are in‐the‐money; the effect is an increase in the option value. Insurance reduces the overinvestment problem but no level of insurance coverage can reduce investment to that which maximizes the shareholder value.     

Racial Differences in the Demand for Life Insurance

The objective of this article is to measure racial differences in the proportion of human capital that households protect with life insurance. Using the 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances data, racial differences in two stages of the process are tested, where it is assumed that households must decide both whether or not to purchase life insurance and how much of their human capital to insure (if they decide to purchase). Among married and cohabitating households, we find that, controlling for demographics and other factors, there is little difference in life insurance ownership between black and white households but that white households insure a larger proportion of their human capital than black households.