The future quantified

The results reported in this paper demonstrate that the qualitative (group) research and quantitative (individual) survey techniques that have been developed now offer a viable means for mapping current expectations and the possible future directions these will take. Sensible use of these should provide governments, and large organisations in general, with a powerful new set of tools for positively managing the future. In terms of the issues themselves, the group which emerged most strongly from the quantified responses of the individuals are those which might be seen as relating to the ‘green' environment. On the other hand, our qualitative groups looked upon these key issues as representing matters of survival for humanity as a whole. Such a focus on survival may seem selfish, but it can also be seen as altruistic not concerned with personal survival. It also represents a sound, rational approach to long-term planning, where the respondents focused instead on how governments might positively, and safely, manage all the long-term issues threatening the future of humankind. If we move away from ‘green' issues, it is also clear that even individuals recognize the globalisation of issues in particular the globalisation of business, the possibility of a global financial crash and the (threat of) domination by Pacific Rim countries. At the opposite end of the spectrum are worries about the significant problems faced by the underclasses—and, in turn, the significant threat these present to society as a whole. In general though, apart from technological issues, the emphasis was—across almost all areas—on survival in the face of events ranging down from catastrophes to mere crises and stresses!     

The application of artificial intelligence to medicine

This article reviews current developments in artificial intelligence as they apply to medicine. Initial applications of this approach to medicine are being actively pursued in medical diagnosis, interpretation of data from chemical studies, and the development of computer models of human behavioural processes. Of special interest is a new research programme established at Stanford University called SUMEX, one of whose major goals is the application of artificial intelligence to medicine. Within the framework of SUMEX, research is actively under way in a number of aspects of biomedical research and clinical medicine. Some of the work reviewed includes the DENDRAL and META-DENDRAL programs, the Protein Crystallography System, SECS, MYCIN, DIALOG, CASNET, the Present Illness Program, PARRY, and Believer. Suggestions for future applications of artificial intelligence to medicine will include clinical patient-record information systems, pharmacology, prosthetics, gerontology, and radiology.     

The Performance of Long-run Stock Returns Following Issues of Public and Private Debt

This study uses a balance sheet-based method to identify both public and private debt issues. This feature is important because there have been no studies of the information content of private debt issues, while private debt is substantially more prevalent than public debt. We find no abnormal returns following straight debt issues. However, convertible debt issuers under-perform the market on the order of 50 to 70 percent in the following five years. In pursuit of explanations, we find that convertible debt issues signal a deterioration of future profitability, which accounts for at least part of the stock price underperformance.     

The role of generally accepted reporting methods in the public sector: An empirical test

This study explores the role of standard or generally accepted accounting and reporting methods in the public sector. It differs from prior studies that address public sector accounting issues in that it considers more directly how the political process influences decisions to report financial information. The primary contention is that adopting standard reporting methods reduces costs to public officials that arise from factors that characterize political markets. Empirical evidence based on data from the state governments is consistent with this contention, but theoretical and methodological problems restrict our ability to ascertain which specific factors are relevant.     

欧美债务危机后的中国金融体制改革走向

在2009年到2011年的时间内欧洲与美国相继爆发债务危机,国际化局势的突变导致了人民币的不断升值,带来了一系列的国际化问题,削减中国的经济实力,导致我国国内的物价上涨,外贸水平下降。本文针对一系列金融体制改革问题和未来金融体制改革的方向作出论述,分析中国的金融政策改革方向。     

First steps: towards purposeful activities in scenario thinking and future studies

In this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the field of scenario development and future studies, which has been a key debate in Futures over the past three of four years. Our contribution is less on the philosophical issues surrounding future studies, but more on the hurdles faced by those interested in practising in the area of scenario planning and future studies. The issues presented and discussed in this article arise from a number of action learning research projects that we have conducted with small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in Scotland, who have embraced scenario development for the first time as part of their strategic management and learning process.Our contribution is targeted at identifying and understanding the hurdles to be overcome when (such) organisations consider adopting scenario development or future studies. The contribution is designed to first, help those in the field of scenario development and future studies be mindful of these hurdles and to build a trusting relationship between the scenario practioner and the client, and secondly, help those managers willing to engage in such activities to better understand the purpose of such work.First we identify three key hurdles: (a) organisational culture (i.e. tacit assumptions on scenario development and future studies); (b) “client” state of mind; (c) fear of engaging with the outside/fear of the future. We argue that these hurdles are a serious threat to the relevance and effectiveness of futures work. We argue that these hurdles need to be better understood as a basis for improving the impact and contribution that scenario development and future studies can make.Later in this article we propose a framework to help understand the purpose of scenario development or future studies work. This framework can be used at the outset of any engagement or study, to help the “client” to identify the purpose of such work and to understand its role and scope. We argue that this framework contributes to more purposeful, relevant and actionable scenario development and future studies in the future.Unless you changed something in the minds of managers, a scenario project had failed (Harvard Bus. Rev. 63(6) (1985) 139). Going one-step further, we would argue that unless something tangible happens as the result of the scenario development and future studies work, we have wasted our time.     

The sisyphus factor or a learning approach to the future

If, as is normally assumed, the future has yet to happen and is dependent upon preceding events and choices it remains uncertain and alternative futures possible. This appears to make the future plural and different from the past and present, which are usually considered to be singular. The role of Futures Research, in an uncertain future, is not to predict but to assist in making informed choices about issues of significance to the future in the changing present. Effective management of change requires the adoption of a learning approach to the future, some of the characteristics of which are explored.     

The impact of foresight on environmental science and technology policy in the Netherlands

Globalisation, high tech development and environmental issues have made policy makers aware again of the possibilities of future studies for policy making. However, the lack of systematic knowledge about their impact is a major obstruction to a proper use of future studies. Especially since future studies no longer claim to predict the future, but are seen as a strategic tool for improving strategic interaction between key actors and for anticipatory policy making, insight in the dynamics of future studies is indispensable. In this article we review four future studies in the Netherlands with an eye on their methods and related impact on research in sustainable technology. Although in content the four studies were quite similar, they were complementary in linking research strategies and policy objectives.     

The effect of SFAS 142 on the ability of goodwill to predict future cash flows

This study examines the effect of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 142 (SFAS 142) on the ability of goodwill to predict future cash flows. SFAS 142 allows substantial managerial discretion and leads to a significant magnitude of economic impact on financial statements, resulting in critical debates over the consequence of its adoption. I find that the ability of goodwill to predict future cash flows has improved since the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) adopted SFAS 142. Furthermore, sub-sample analyses fail to reveal compelling evidence that reporting discretion induced by SFAS 142 is used opportunistically or informatively, contrasting with the pervasive view based on the opportunistic reporting hypothesis. Overall, contrary to the position of critics of SFAS 142, the results support the view taken by the FASB and proponents of SFAS 142: eliminating systematic amortization and adopting fair value estimates improve representational faithfulness of goodwill reporting.     

Chief executive officer trustworthiness and green innovation

This study examines the influence of chief executive officer (CEO) trustworthiness on green innovation. We argue that firms led by trustworthy CEOs have a higher likelihood of adopting socially acceptable policies in response to environmental issues. Drawing on social norms perspective, we find that CEO trustworthiness is positively associated with green innovation using a sample of Chinese manufacturing firms from 2003 to 2018. Findings suggest that hiring trustworthy CEOs allows firms to cope with environmental issues.     

投资者关注对金银期货市场收益影响的时频分位研究

根据Google投资者关注度指数和金银期货市场交易数据,构建基于小波分解序列的时频门限自回归分布滞后模型,通过分位数模型参数估计,基于时域与频域联合分析视角,考量投资者关注度对金银期货市场收益的影响。结果表明：投资者关注度对金银期货市场的影响具有异质性;在低频域内,投资者关注度对金银期货市场影响相对较小;极端分位数水平下,投资者关注度对金银期货市场收益影响的时效性较短,投资者关注度对白银期货市场收益的影响较弱。     

Assessing emerging issues. The external and internal approach

This article analyses emerging issues trying to find elements to assess the possibility that they become a relevant trend in the future using a twofold perspective for that purpose. On the one hand it considers the external approach, that is, the analysis of visible signals linked to the emerging issues that in an early stage are called “weak signals”. On the other hand, it tries to study emerging issues taking into account their internal motivations. In this case the aim is to value the social, economic or other kind of reasons that are hidden under emerging issues. A post-structuralism perspective (CLA, causal layered analysis) is used to address this objective.This double approach allows to consider emerging issues in a holistic way, taking into account what is visible and what is not so apparent. In order to offer conclusions and results a real use case is included analyzing the emerging issues showed in the report “Informe de la Sociedad de la Información 2013” (one of the references about information society situation and ICT trends in Spain).     

The economic determinants of interest rate option smiles

We address three questions relating to the interest rate options market: What is the shape of the smile? What are the economic determinants of the shape of the smile? Do these determinants have predictive power for the future shape of the smile and vice versa? We investigate these issues using daily bid and ask prices of euro (€) interest rate caps/floors. We find a clear smile pattern in interest rate options. The shape of the smile varies over time and is affected in a dynamic manner by yield curve variables and the future uncertainty in the interest rate markets; it also has information about future aggregate default risk. Our findings are useful for the pricing, hedging and risk management of these derivatives.     

The future of art in postcultural democracy

Has the future of art fallen irredeemably into the grip of the ‘creative industries’ directed by a consortium of public and private cultural entrepreneurs? Is democracy the natural guardian of artistic independence? Or has the cultural policy agenda of neoliberal democracy solidified into a managerial instrumentalization of art geared to the functions of the market and the state? European Cultural Policies: 2015 provides a model introductory text for a discussion of these vital issues in near future forecast. The authors of the report are independent curators operating from dissident research groups whose aim is to challenge the dominant neoliberal model of cultural enterprise and offer viable alternatives to it. This paper examines the report's diagnosis of a symptomatic cultural predicament and its proposals for future recuperation.     

Governance and Performance Implications of Diversification Strategies: Evidence from Large U.S. Firms

Recent research focuses on explaining the diversification discount. However, there is little direct evidence regarding the relation among ownership structure, corporate governance, and corporate diversification. The results in this paper suggest that agency issues do not account for firms adopting a particular diversification strategy. Also, the performance consequences of the shift in the diversification strategy and the subsequent changes in institutional and block ownership structures are not related to agency issues. In fact, investors seem not to avoid diversified firms per se. We suggest that observed board and ownership differences between diversified and focused firms are due to their being at different stages of corporate evolution.     

The future of communities,buildings and building systems : An outline of major topics

This article is a synopsis of forces which may lead to change in architecture, the nature of the building industry, building technologies and the quality of our built environment. The article outlines issues, developments and ideas which collectively may provide a vision of the future of buildings and an agenda for research and development.     

The term structure of interest rates: Alternative approaches and their implications for the valuation of contingent claims

One of the most active areas of research in financial economics has been the modeling of the term structure of interest rates and its relationship to the pricing of contingent claims. There is a vast array of issues in the area, as well as a variety of perspectives, ranging from theoretical to practical. This article provides a general framework for the analysis of issues in the modeling of the term structure. Specifically, this article provides an overview of the conceptual issues and the empirical evidence in the area, based on an examination of five seminal models by Black, Scholes, and Merton; Vasicek; Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross; Ho and Lee; and Heath, Jarrow, and Morton. The article provides a synthesis of the area and suggests directions for future research.     

The future for technological collaboration

Technological collaboration between firms is argued to be increasing and to be an important element of corporate and technological development. Such collaboration is actively promoted by governments. It is a central element of the ‘techno-globalism’ analysis of future international economic and technology development. There are many reasons for the promotion of collaboration, but its outcomes are mixed. Collaboration may reflect industrial and technological weakness; it has a limited technology focus, rarely appropriate to world problems; its international range is restricted to the global triad; and public policies and corporate strategies may be incongruent. By highlighting the many uncertainties surrounding collaboration, this article questions the techno-globalism analysis, and raises some issues concerning the future of collaboration between firms. It argues that whatever its future, the importance of indigenous capabilities remains critical for nations and for their firms.     

The four and five year old's understanding of the future: A preliminary study

A significant imbalance exists in the lack of research on young children's understandings of the future. Recent studies highlight the difficulties experienced by young people in coming to terms with the future, which is generally viewed with trepidation and ambivalence by children as young as ten years of age. While there is a growing body of research in this area, there has been very little undertaken on how younger children think about these issues. To focus our attention on younger children's understandings and attitudes in this area would improve our understanding on the development of young children's thinking on time and the future and assist us to implement strategies to counteract the negativity and pessimism experienced at later years.