Continuous time and nonparametric modelling of U.S. interest rate models

In this paper we compare the forecasting performance of different models of interest rates using parametric and nonparametric estimation methods. In particular, we use three popular nonparametric methods, namely, artificial neural networks (ANN), k-nearest neighbour (k-NN), and local linear regression (LL). These are compared with forecasts obtained from two-factor continuous time interest rate models, namely, Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders [CKLS, J. Finance 47 (1992) 1209]; Cos, Ingersoll, and Ross [CIR, Econometrica 53 (1985) 385]; Brennan and Schwartz [BR-SC, J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 15 (1980) 907]; and Vasicek [J. Financ. Econ. 5 (1977) 177]. We find that while the parametric continuous time method, specifically Vasicek, produces the most successful forecasts, the nonparametric k-NN performed well.     

Optimizing the terminal wealth under partial information: The drift process as a continuous time Markov chain

We consider a multi-stock market model where prices satisfy a stochastic differential equation with instantaneous rates of return modeled as a continuous time Markov chain with finitely many states. Partial observation means that only the prices are observable. For the investors objective of maximizing the expected utility of the terminal wealth we derive an explicit representation of the optimal trading strategy in terms of the unnormalized filter of the drift process, using HMM filtering results and Malliavin calculus. The optimal strategy can be determined numerically and parameters can be estimated using the EM algorithm. The results are applied to historical prices.Received: March 2004, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28, 60G44JEL Classification: G11Supported by NSERC under research grant 88051 and NCE grant 30354.     

Forecasting implied volatility in foreign exchange markets: a functional time series approach

We utilise novel functional time series (FTS) techniques to characterise and forecast implied volatility in foreign exchange markets. In particular, we examine the daily implied volatility curves of FX options, namely; Euro/United States Dollar, Euro/British Pound, and Euro/Japanese Yen. The FTS model is shown to produce both realistic and plausible implied volatility shapes that closely match empirical data during the volatile 2006–2013 period. Furthermore, the FTS model significantly outperforms implied volatility forecasts produced by traditionally employed parametric models. The evaluation is performed under both in-sample and out-of-sample testing frameworks with our findings shown to be robust across various currencies, moneyness segments, contract maturities, forecasting horizons, and out-of-sample window lengths. The economic significance of the results is highlighted through the implementation of a simple trading strategy.     

Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons

Despite an extensive body of research, the best way to model the dependence of exchange rates remains an open question. In this paper we present a new approach which employs a flexible time-varying copula model. It allows the conditional correlation between exchange rates to be both time-varying and modeled independently from the marginal distributions. We introduce a dynamic specification for the correlation using the Fisher transformation. Applied to Euro/US dollar and Japanese Yen/US dollar, our results reveal a significantly time-varying correlation, dependent on the past return realizations. We find that a time-varying copula with the proposed correlation specification gives better results than alternative dynamic benchmark models. The dynamic copula model outperforms at six different time horizons, ranging from hourly to daily, confirming the model specification.     

The effect of emotion and time pressure on risk decision-making

Emotion and time pressure are two important factors affecting risk decision-making. This study explored the interaction of emotion and time pressure on risk decision-making by adopting 3 (emotion state: positive emotion, negative emotion, and control group)?×?2 (time constraint: high time constraint and no time constraint) between-subject experiment design. The results showed that (1) both emotion and time pressure exerted significant effect on risk decision-making (generally, positive emotion renders participants more risk prone than negative emotion, and high time pressure promotes people more risk seeking than no time pressure); (2) time pressure polarized the effects of different emotions on risk decision-making. As effects of emotions were polarized under high time pressure, two distinct cognitive pathways may function in human decision-making. Based on our experimental result and previous neuroeconomic works, we proposed a novel dual cognitive pathways model to explain phenomenon in the current article.     

Noisy information,distance and law of one price dynamics across US cities

US micro price data at the city level suggests that both the volatility and the persistence of law of one price deviations are rising in the distance between US cities. A standard two-city equilibrium model with trade costs can predict the relationship between volatility and distance but not between persistence and distance. We show that if there is imperfect information about the state of nominal aggregate demand, with noisy signals that are asymmetric across cities, then distance and persistence will be positively correlated. Our main results are shown to be robust to the introduction of sticky prices and multiple cities.     

利率市场化对商业银行投融资行为的影响

随着利率市场化改革的深入，银行的投融资行为将受到利率波动增大的影响。更严格的资本充足性要求并不必然引导银行减少对风险项目的投资。银行利润更大的波动性加大了银行的破产风险，而预算软约束则减弱了破产威胁对银行投融资行为的警示作用，使银行更愿意冒自己不能承担的风险，从而给整个金融系统带来更高的潜在不稳定性。     

Distressed debt prices and recovery rate estimation

This paper has two purposes. First, it uses distressed debt prices to estimate recovery rates at default. In this regard, estimates are obtained for three recovery rate models: recovery of face value, recovery of Treasury, and recovery of market value. We show that identifying the “economic” default date, as distinct from the recorded default date, is crucial to obtaining unbiased estimates. The economic default date is defined to be the first date when the market prices the firm’s debt as if it has defaulted. An implication is that the standard industry practice of using 30-day post default prices to compute recovery rate yields biased estimates. Second, we construct and estimate a distressed debt pricing model. We use this model to implicitly estimate the parameters of the embedded recovery rate process and to price distressed debt. Our distressed debt pricing model fits market prices well, with an average pricing error of less than one basis point.      

预算管理:实践难题及其对策

近年来理论界和实务界对预算提出了许多批评,出现了抛弃预算的观点。事实上,这与理论界和实务界对预算的功能认识不清,对预算寄予过高和过多的期望,使预算难负重荷有一定关系。只有对预算功能进行准确定位,对预算管理中出现的实践难题进行全面梳理,确定其关键管理功能,使预算管理目标明确,才有利于其管理功能的正常发挥。     

The relationship between motivation,learning approaches,academic performance and time spent

Previous literature calls for further investigation in terms of precedents and consequences of learning approaches (deep learning and surface learning). Motivation as precedent and time spent and academic performance as consequences are addressed in this paper. The study is administered in a first-year undergraduate course. Results show that the accounting students have a slightly higher score for deep learning compared to surface learning. Moreover, high intrinsic motivation and extrinsic motivation have a significant positive influence on deep learning. Next, deep learning leads to higher academic performance; surface learning on the other hand leads to lower academic performance. The effect of deep learning on performance still holds, when we control for time spent, gender and ability. Consequently we can conclude that a deep learning approach is much more than ‘simply’ spending a lot of time on studying.     

国内商业银行预算管理研究现状及启示

预算管理是引导企业上下协调一致实现经营目标的重要手段。目前,国内主要商业银行均面临持续提升盈利能力的压力。要实现经营效益的可持续增长,一个重要的切入点就是继续强化预算管理,而预算管理水平的提高有赖于理论指导和实践经验总结。从目前国内研究状况来看,一般工商企业视角下的预算管理研究已经较为充分,但商业银行视角下的预算管理研究却相对滞后。本文在详细梳理国内商业银行预算管理的相关研究文献后指出后续研究可从预算管理环境、预算管理基础体系、预算管理机制、预算编制执行与业绩评价管理、实际案例剖析等方面展开。     

我国财政透明度的现状及其国际比较研究

财政透明度是优质公共财政管理的重要方面,它是促进效率、保障政府和官员负起责任的一种方法.财政透明度由此受到国际货币基金组织、世界银行和许多西方发达国家的高度关注.我国财政透明度建设起步较晚,目前来看虽然已有明显改观,但仍和国际上的规范性做法存在很大差距.立足国际视角,结合我国实际情况,提高我国财政透明度可从转变政府意识、修订有关法律、加强预算准备、改进政府收支分类系统、发展政府会计和政府财务报告系统、建设政府财政管理信息系统等方面着手.     

减税降费背景下预算监督的逻辑进路与实现路径

以制度变革方式实施的普惠性、实质性减税降费,不仅有助于最大限度地以支定收保护国民的利益,更会倒逼形成预算的刚性约束,有助于促进国家预算监督体系的完善,真正实现量入为出。减税降费背景下强化预算监督,应重塑预算监督理念,重构预算监督机制,完善预算监督路径,建立健全党委、人大、公众以及司法的协同预算监督体制,拓展多元主体参与预算监督、优化预算监督有效性、威慑性的路径,构建国家财政权与国民财产权之间的良性取予关系。     

The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices

During the late 1970s, U.S. house prices were appreciating rapidly even though mortgage interest rates were climbing. Recently, interest rates have eased but prices have moderated. This study examines the role of appreciation expectations in overcoming the negative effects of nominal mortgage interest rates on house prices. Expectations of future appreciation are important determinants of house sales prices, remaining influential during periods of declining and moderating real prices, not just when prices are rising. The real rate of interest, as viewed by the homebuyer, is the mechanism for affecting change in housing price levels. Because the nominal interest rate is slow to reflect changes in expectations, these real rates vary over time. This ebb and flow of real interest rates appears to explain market price levels. Nominal rates play a role as well, primarily in the formation of appreciation expectations.     

社会性别预算的焦作试验——三论社会性别预算在中国的推广

社会性别预算在中国,已进入纵深演进与技术难题攻坚的重要阶段。在社会性别预算的焦作试验中,面临长期与短期改革成效的协调、公共政策与性别预算的整合、妇联组织项目执行力、地区间横向推广等挑战。就改革的关键节点而言,需要构建性别预算全周期管理体系,强化相应的公民基础,实行具体支出项目边际改进和公共政策增量调整的"双元推进策略",最终完成其制度规则与运行模式的"顶层设计"。     

加拿大社会保障预算的经验分析及其对中国的启示

加拿大的社会保障预算主要涉及老年保障制度、就业保险制度和加拿大养老金计划等3项制度,其中,老年保障制度与就业保险制度采用政府公共预算,加拿大养老金计划则独立编制专项基金预算。由这两方面着手,文章对加拿大社会保障预算进行了深入的经验分析,并发现对中国有如下启示:政府应建立社会养老金制度,并将其支出纳入政府公共预算;社会保险基金主要是养老保险基金应进行严格精算,以保证长期的财务可持续性;政府应大力促进基金的市场化投资,进而实现专项基金预算下的结余基金的保值增值。     

The law and economics of self-dealing

We present a new measure of legal protection of minority shareholders against expropriation by corporate insiders: the anti-self-dealing index. Assembled with the help of Lex Mundi law firms, the index is calculated for 72 countries based on legal rules prevailing in 2003, and focuses on private enforcement mechanisms, such as disclosure, approval, and litigation, that govern a specific self-dealing transaction. This theoretically grounded index predicts a variety of stock market outcomes, and generally works better than the previously introduced index of anti-director rights.     

论商法公法化的体现和影响

私法公法化是私法自近代向现代转变过程中出现的一种趋势。商法在本质上具有私法属性,但是商法公法化赋与了商法公法色彩。大量公法性规范注入商法,可是商法的私法性质并未因私法公法化而改变。     

The influence of information presentation order and evaluation time horizon on the outcome effect

The outcome effect occurs when an evaluation is influenced by knowledge of the outcome, even when it is unclear that the outcome provides additional information about the evaluatee's performance. This phenomenon has received considerable attention in the accounting and psychology literatures, which rely on cognitive or motivational factors to account for the outcome effect. However, prior research has not considered the impact of information presentation order or the evaluation time horizon. We evaluate prior research in accounting and conclude that information presentation order could have significantly impacted the outcome effect observed in these studies. We then report the results of an experiment that provides evidence that information presentation order plays a significant role in the existence and magnitude of the outcome effect. In addition, we find that the length of the evaluation time horizon is positively related to the magnitude of the outcome effect when conditions favor a recency effect.