Futures studies and the policy sciences

Part of the current evaluation of the work of the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies focuses on the practicality and legitimacy of futures studies in relation to the policy sciences. Two crucial issues are focused on, first the justification and relevance of futures studies methodological approaches and their rigorous application to areas of public policy importance and second, the measures by which futures studies can be evaluated in the light of different time frames. Although there are differences between the policy sciences and futures studies approaches which require further analysis, there nevertheless is a symbiotic relationship between the two. The legitimacy of futures studies as a relevant public policy exercise should not be at issue.     

Economic policy uncertainty,agency problem,and funding structure: Evidence from U.S. banking industry

We empirically examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on banks’ funding structure (FUD). Using an extensive dataset of U.S. bank holding companies, we find that high policy uncertainty strengthens banks’ FUD. For banks with a pre-existing low FUD, an increase in EPU raises FUD. However, for banks with a pre-existing high FUD, the relationship between EPU and FUD becomes negative and economically significant. Considering the lack of relevant studies, our paper contributes to the literature and provides implications for policymakers and practitioners in the banking industry.     

Wholesale funding and bank stability: The impact of economic policy uncertainty

The primary aim of this paper is to examine the conditioning effects of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between wholesale funding and bank stability. Based on a sample of 1829 commercial banks in 27 countries over the period 2005–2020, we provide evidence of a nonlinear relationship between wholesale funding and bank stability. Specifically, a small share of nondeposit funding to total deposit and short-term funding (below 22.3%) offers some risk reduction, but a substantial mixing of nondeposit and deposit funding increases bank fragility. Moreover, the adverse effects of excessive wholesale funding on bank stability are strengthened during periods of high policy uncertainty. Nevertheless, banks in advanced countries, large banks, and high-quality banks with better asset quality are less affected by the detrimental impact of excessive wholesale funding on bank stability when during periods of increased policy uncertainty.     

Monetary policy,government control and capital investment: Evidence from China

This study examines how the relationships between local governments and local enterprises moderate the effect of targeted monetary policies through different action-propagating mechanisms. First, we investigate the impact of monetary policies on enterprise investment in areas with different institutional environments. Second, we investigate the impact of monetary policies on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with different property rights structures. Third, we examine how political connections can influence the action-propagating mechanism of monetary policies. We conclude that in China monetary policies have different effects on SOEs and on private enterprises with or without political connections. Specifically, local government interventions can significantly weaken and distort the effects of monetary policies, such that the intended reduction in investment is noticeably alleviated for SOEs and private enterprises with close links to local governments.     

Long-range strategic planning in Japanese R and D

Until the early 1970s Japanese industry did not employ strategic corporate planning. Rather, a working textbook setting out national industrialization goals provided the basis for government and industrial policy, and its influence persists. Through a historical analysis this article traces the development in the past decade of long-range strategic planning in Japanese R and D, and identifies the distinction between ‘leader’ countries (such as the USA) and ‘follower’ countries (like Japan) as being more vital to understanding Japanese industrial policy/structure and corporate strategy, than cultural factors.     

COVID-19, government policy responses,and stock market liquidity around the world: A note

Unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions targeted to curb the spread of COVID-19 exerted a dramatic impact on the global economy and financial markets. This study is the first attempt to investigate the influence of these government policy responses on global stock market liquidity. To this end, we examine daily data from 49 countries for the period January-April 2020. We demonstrate that the impact of the interventions is limited in scale and scope. Workplace and school closures deteriorate liquidity in emerging markets, while information campaigns on the novel coronavirus facilitate trading activity.     

Capital inflows,monetary policy,and financial imbalances

Ahead of the global financial crisis, financial imbalances built up across advanced economies as credit grew and was increasingly funded in wholesale financial markets. This paper investigates empirically three potential drivers of the build-up of these financial imbalances: rising global imbalances (capital flows); loose monetary policy; and inadequate supervision and regulation. We perform panel data regressions for OECD countries from 1999 to 2007 to explore the relative importance of these factors. We find that differences in the build-up of wholesale-funded credit were driven by the strength of capital inflows. Moreover, we document an interaction effect, whereby the effect of inflows on the build-up was amplified where the supervisory and regulatory environment was relatively weak. In contrast, differences in monetary policy did not significantly affect differences across countries in the build-up of these financial imbalances ahead of the crisis.     

International Trends in Income Inequality and Social Policy

In most OECD-countries income inequality has increased during the last two decades. In this paper, we investigate whether changes in the overall distribution of income can be attributed to social policy measures. For most (but not all) countries we find a possible relationship between changing welfare state policies (as measured by expenditure ratios and replacement rates) and changing income inequality. Especially the United Kingdom and the Netherlands combined an above-average rise in inequality with a reduction in the generosity of the welfare system.A more elaborate budget incidence analysis for the Netherlands indicates that in the period 1981–1997 inequality of disposable household income increased sharply. The two main forces behind this phenomenon were a more unequal distribution of market incomes and changes in social transfers. Fundamental social security reforms in the Netherlands indeed seem to have made the income distribution less equal. However, income inequality in the Netherlands is still below the OECD average at the end of the observed period.     

The intoxicating brew of black liquor and son of black liquor: Deciphering the tax planning,research, policy and financial statement implications of tax credits via financial reporting income tax disclosures

In 2007, a change in the law regarding the alternative fuel mixture credit opened the door for paper mills to qualify a byproduct of paper manufacturing, black liquor, as a fuel eligible for the credit. The credit is a refundable credit of $0.50 per gallon. Paper mills can produce hundreds of millions of gallons of black liquor per year and qualified for the credit in 2009. In addition, in 2010 the IRS determined that these firms qualified for the cellulosic biofuels producer credit. Paper mill companies could amend their 2009 tax returns and swap their alternative fuel mixture credits for cellulosic biofuels producer credits worth $1.01 per gallon. The catch was that the alternative fuels mixture credit was refundable; the cellulosic biofuels producer credit was nonrefundable.     

Monetary policy for small emerging market economies: the way forward

Discretionary monetary policy for small emerging market economies, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, can benefit from closer scrutiny and strengthening through appropriate and incremental policies. Field research and related analysis challenge the conventional wisdom on the relationship between interest rates and inflation. Lessons learned suggest that monetary policy needs to be tempered to prevailing social, cultural, and socio-economic factors. In addition, access to credit through financial inclusion policies and programmes needs to be addressed, and the overarching role of good governance cannot be overlooked. Given the broad scope of weaknesses inherent in monetary policy-making (and the systems that support it) in small emerging market economies such as Botswana's, two options are available to tackle the problems: either monetary union should be adopted or incremental new directions to the status quo are required.     

社会保险市场上的逆向选择与公共政策干预:国际研究动态述评

随着社会经济的进步与发展,提供社会保险日益成为现代政府的重要任务,而信息不对称带来的逆向选择这一市场失灵问题是政府提供社会保险的主要经济依据之一。由此,近年来国际学术界涌现出一大批关于社会保险市场上逆向选择与公共政策干预问题的研究文献,在将理论与数据相结合以分析公共政策的福利影响方面出现了很多研究进展。本文就尝试对这一领域的研究进行总结与分析,为国内学术研究的开展与公共经济政策的设计提供有益借鉴。     

Monetary policy and financial stability in a banking economy: Transmission mechanism and policy tradeoffs

The 2008 global financial crisis demonstrated that monetary policy and financial stability policy are more highly interrelated than previously thought. This paper analyzes the interactions between these policies using a non-linear overlapping-generations model with financial frictions in the form of banking financial intermediation. The paper embeds negative externalities due to contagion effects in physical investments which creates the need for financial stability policy. We show how the monetary policy transmission mechanism depends on financial stability policy tools as well as on regulatory and institutional constraints.We find policy tradeoffs in trying to accomplish both monetary and financial stability targets. The central bank must take these tradeoffs into account when selecting the tools in its policy toolbox. Another important finding is the interchangeability of price stability and financial stability policy tools.     

Social Risk Management: A New Conceptual Framework for Social Protection, and Beyond

This paper proposes a new definition and conceptual framework for Social Protection grounded in Social Risk Management. The concept repositions the traditional areas of Social Protection (labor market intervention, social insurance and social safety nets) in a framework that includes three strategies to deal with risk (prevention, mitigation and coping), three levels of formality of risk management (informal, market-based, public) and many actors (individuals, households, communities, NGOs, governments at various levels and international organizations) against the background of asymmetric information and different types of risk. This expanded view of Social Protection emphasizes the double role of risk management instruments—protecting basic livelihood as well as promoting risk taking. It focuses specifically on the poor since they are the most vulnerable to risk and typically lack appropriate risk management instruments, which constrains them from engaging in riskier but also higher return activities and hence gradually moving out of chronic poverty.     

Banking sector reactions to COVID-19: The role of bank-specific factors and government policy responses

This paper examines the impact of bank-specific factors and variations in the context of stringency of government policy responses on bank stock returns because of the COVID-19 pandemic. A sample of 1,927 publicly listed banks from 110 countries is used for the period of the first major wave of COVID-19, that is, January to May 2020. Our findings indicate that stock returns of banks with higher capitalization and deposits, more diversification, lower non-performing loans, and larger size are more resilient to the pandemic. While banks’ environment and governance scores do not have a significant impact, higher social and corporate social responsibility strategy scores intensify the negative stock price reaction to COVID-19. We further observe that the pandemic-induced reduction in bank stock prices is mitigated as the strictness of government policy responses increases, mainly through economic responses such as income support, debt and contract relief, and fiscal measures from governments.     

Carrot or stick: Impacts of alternative climate and energy policy scenarios on agriculture

The climate and energy strategy of the European Union presents the aims for all economic sectors to cut carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, we studied what kind of conflicts, synergies, opportunities and control measures the climate and energy policy brings to farms in Finland. We used the Delphi method to assess possible outcomes of three scenarios based on the strength of mitigation policy. The scenarios scrutinised were (1) Baseline, (2) Tight Control and (3) Energy Plus Food. These scenarios create different adaptive needs and measures on farms. Baseline scenario follows the present and forthcoming development in agriculture and Tight Control scenario, in turn, constitutes all possible mitigation measures recently introduced in the scientific discussion. In Energy Plus Food scenario, farms increasingly produce renewable energy in addition to food and, therefore, have new opportunities to develop their businesses. The Delphi panel estimated how the farms would cope with different future developments represented by the scenarios. Based on our results, it is evident that interdisciplinary analysis in research and inter-sectoral cooperation between agricultural and energy policies are required.     

The nexus of macroprudential supervision,monetary policy,and financial stability

I discuss changes to bank supervision and regulation since the financial crisis. Microprudential supervision promotes the safety and soundness of individual institutions, while macroprudential supervision focuses on emerging risks to financial system stability. I highlight tools for implementing this macroprudential approach to promoting financial stability, and discuss the interactions and proper relationship between monetary policy and financial stability. While macroprudential tools should be the first line of defense against emerging financial imbalances, in cases where those tools proved to be inadequate to limit risks to financial stability, monetary policy should be considered as a possible defense.     

Fiscal policy in Korea: Before and after the financial crisis

This paper examines the role of fiscal policy in the Korean financial crisis and the subsequent recovery from it. We specifically address three questions: Was Korea’s fiscal policy prior to the crisis conservative, or were there large hidden contingent liabilities not captured in the official budget balance? What were the main characteristics of fiscal policy in stimulating and restructuring the economy under the IMF stabilization program in Korea? How effective were the financial guarantee and public investment programs as part of the counter-cyclical fiscal policy in the recovery process from the crisis? To address these questions, we re-estimate the consolidated budget deficits in Korea by incorporating the quasi-fiscal activities of public funds and public enterprises using their micro balance-sheet data from 1972 to 2003.     

远期结售汇业务发展现状及政策建议

随着人民币汇率弹性的逐步增强,汇率风险的防范问题已日显重要,外汇衍生品市场的发展继而成为我们关注的焦点。文章介绍了湖北省远期结售汇业务的发展现状及成因,从供求关系、交易方式等角度分析了当前制约业务发展的因素,并从鼓励金融创新和进一步完善汇率形成机制的角度,提出相应的市场发展建议。     

Government spending on research and development in the UK

This paper explores the extent of current UK government spending on science and technology placed in its recent historical context. The allocation of this spending across the different arms of government, the primary purposes of the expenditures undertaken and the extent to which the government performs as well as funds R&D are also explored, with some international comparisons analysed. The political and institutional processes that determine the revealed patterns of expenditure in the UK, the rationales behind such spending and the aims and objectives of the main spending departments are discussed, as is the interaction with EU expenditures on science and technology. The effectiveness of or pay-off to government support of this kind is also considered before future spending plans are addressed.     

Ranking Accounting Ph.D. Programs and Faculties Using Social Science Research Network Downloads

We rank accounting Ph.D. programs and accounting faculties based on downloads individuals' working papers posted to the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) receive. We retain 185 individuals included in Accounting Faculty Directory 2002–2003 (Hasselback, 2002) whose work has been most heavily downloaded as of August 21, 2002. We rank Ph.D. programs (faculties) both adjusting and not adjusting for program (faculty) size. We provide rankings both without regards to when individuals graduated and for individuals graduating during three consecutive sub-periods: pre-1982, 1982–1991 and 1992–2001. We first provide rankings without regards to teaching or research area. After dichotomizing individuals into those whose teaching/research area is financial versus non-financial we provide additional rankings focusing on non-financial research areas.