科技创新、产业结构升级与碳排放的传导效应 ——基于半参数空间面板VAR模型

为了实现碳减排目标和碳中和愿景,在中国30个省市的面板数据基础上,构建半参数空间面板向量自回归模型（SSPVAR）,利用脉冲响应函数和导数散点图实证分析了科技创新、产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化、碳排放之间的双向空间传导效应,以及环境规制的非线性影响。结果表明：（1）科技创新、产业结构升级和碳排放之间存在时间滞后效应和空间传递效应。科技创新和碳排放存在显著的正向自强化效应和正向空间溢出效应,而产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化存在负向空间溢出效应。（2）科技创新促进本地和邻地产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化,但是产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化均对本地和邻地的科技创新产生不同程度的时间滞后性的抑制作用。（3）科技创新减少本地二氧化碳排放,但不利于邻地的碳减排;产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化有利于邻地碳减排,但增加了本地的二氧化碳排放,且产业结构高级化的碳减排效应比产业结构合理化更显著。（4）环境规制对科技创新、产业结构升级、碳排放都存在显著的非线性影响。     

中国产业结构高级化的影响因素研究

在对产业结构高级化的内在机理进行理论分析的基础上,确定了产业结构高级化的影响因素及其量化指标,构造了产业结构高级化的空间计量模型,并运用1992—2012年中国省份面板数据进行了估计。研究得出,社会需求对产业结构高级化影响最为显著,是产业结构高级化发展的决定性因素,其中,消费需求对产业结构高级化水平的推动作用最大;目前的制度安排对我国产业结构高级化存在显著的负面影响,造成了产业结构升级困难等。     

人力资本结构高级化对科技创新绩效的影响

科技创新是社会发展的动力，人力资本是创新的主体，人力资本由低层次向高层次演化的动态过程即人力资本结构高级化过程。人力资本结构高级化通过与技术结构升级匹配，营造和改善创新环境，并通过需求结构升级提升科技创新绩效。采用向量夹角衡量人力资本结构高级化水平，分析其对科技创新绩效的促进作用，并将其与人力资本存量对科技创新绩效的影响进行对比分析。回归结果显示，人力资本结构高级化能够显著提升科技创新绩效，相对于人力资本存量而言，人力资本结构高级化对科技创新绩效的作用更大。分区域研究中，东部和中部地区人力资本结构高级化对于科技创新绩效的作用高于全国平均水平，东北地区呈抑制作用。因此，在制定创新驱动人力资本政策时应考虑如何提高人力资本结构高级化水平，针对区域情况制定差异化人力资本政策。     

人口老龄化、居民消费与产业结构升级

本文基于2001—2020年31个省份的面板数据，研究人口老龄化对产业结构高级化、合理化的影响机制及其时空异质性特征。研究发现，人口老龄化对产业结构高级化和合理化具有明显的推动作用；人口老龄化通过降低消费水平抑制产业结构高级化和合理化，通过推动消费结构升级促进产业结构高级化和合理化；金融危机前后人口老龄化对产业结构高级化的影响存在差异，不同区域的人口老龄化对产业结构高级化和合理化的影响也不同。鉴于人口老龄化对产业结构升级影响的复杂性和异质性，政府应注意采取差异化和相互支持的政策来促进产业结构升级。     

地方创新政策与产业结构调整--基于地方政府相关创新政策的实证分析

文章分析了地方政府产业创新政策对产业结构优化升级的作用机理及途径,利用我国省际面板数据实证分析地方产业创新政策对产业结构合理化和高级化的效应,以及市场化和地方政府能力对创新政策的产业结构优化升级效应的影响。研究表明,地方产业创新政策能够显著地提升地区产业结构合理化和高级化程度,但这个作用依赖于市场化程度和地方政府能力。     

产业结构高级化与经济增长关系实证研究——基于全国、广东省及广州市数据的对比分析

本文构造了一种能有效度量产业结构高级化的指标,并运用它对全国、广东省及广州市1978-2009年产业结构高级化与经济增长的关系进行了分析。结果发现,研究期间三个层次的产业结构高级化水平都得到了极大的提高,也表现出了相同的趋势、特征与路径。从全国到东部发达省份再到东部中心城市,经济增长对产业结构高级化都有推动作用,而产业升级对经济增长的促进作用则只出现在中心城市这一层。     

人力资本对产业结构优化升级的影响——基于空间面板数据模型的研究

产业结构优化升级主要包含产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化两个方面. 本文基于2002—2013年间的中国30个省域的数据, 采用空间面板数据模型, 经验分析了人力资本对于产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化的影响作用. 分析得出: 当前中国的人力资本积累水平对于产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化均呈现出正向促进作用; 人力资本分布结构并不利于产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化; 与此同时, 从人力资本对产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化的空间效应来看, 人力资本积累水平具有正的空间溢出效应.     

科技创新对安徽省产业结构高级化影响的实证研究

本文利用2001-2009年安徽、上海等十省市的面板数据,采用回归分析法,实证分析安徽省科技创新对产业结构高级化的影响,主要结论为：安徽省产业结构高级化水平较低,同周边省市相比,科技创新对安徽产业结构高级的影响较大,在承接产业转移时安徽省具有产业结构和科技创新两方面的优势。     

中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响

本文在测度产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化的基础上,构建了关于产业结构变迁与经济增长的计量经济模型,进而探讨了二者对经济波动的影响。研究结果表明:产业结构合理化和高级化进程均对经济增长的影响有明显的阶段性特征。相对而言,产业结构合理化与经济增长之间的关系具有较强的稳定性,而高级化则表现出较大的不确定性。产业结构合理化和高级化对经济波动的影响主要表现在不可预测的周期性波动方面,而它们的影响机制却截然不同。产业结构高级化是经济波动的一个重要来源,产业结构合理化则有助于抑制经济波动。总体上,现阶段我国产业结构合理化对经济发展的贡献要远远大于产业结构高级化。本文认为,政府在制定产业结构政策时,应在强调产业结构合理化的同时,积极突破制约产业结构高级化效应的限制条件,有效推进产业结构的高级化,充分发挥产业转型与升级对经济增长的持续推动作用。     

科技创新、产业结构升级对经济发展的实证分析

基于2008—2018年我国30个省份(因数据缺失,不包括西藏和港澳台地区)的面板数据探究了科技创新和产业结构升级对各地经济发展影响的路径,将产业结构升级作为中介变量,并细化为产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化,探讨科技创新在促进经济发展中的传导作用,以及将我国分为东部、中部和西部进行区域异质性的分析.实证分析结果表明:①科技创新和产业结构升级均能显著促进地区经济发展,且产业结构升级在科技创新促进经济发展的过程中起到了中介变量的作用;②东部地区科技创新对经济发展的促进作用完全是通过产业结构升级来实现的,而西部和中部地区科技创新对经济发展的促进作用部分是通过产业结构升级来实现的;③东部地区的中介变量产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化在科技创新促进地区经济发展的过程中表现出完全的中介效应,中部地区的产业结构高级化表现出部分的中介效应,产业结构合理化表现出完全的中介效应,而西部地区的产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化均表现出部分的中介效应;④东部地区对外开放是影响地区经济发展的重要因素,固定资本投入对中部地区经济发展影响较大,应继续加大固定资本投入,而西部地区的经济发展仍然处于追赶状态,大力赶超中东部地区经济发展,克服地域发展不平衡是重中之重.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Nonlinearity in Stock Exchange Markets: The Case of Bist 100 Indices

In this paper,using data for the Bist 100 index,we investigate the presence of nonlinearities by employing several nonlinearity tests.The Brock,Dechert,and Sche...     

Solidified Branding Function: How the Urban Brand Affects a Small Town’s Development? Case Study of Wangqingtuo,Tianjin, China

Chinese small towns are usually developed with single core industry,and the urban brand is the identity of a town that formed with the development of its indust...     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。