农村养老保险、养老金待遇与最优政策组合

采用OLG模型考察了农村养老保险个人缴费率、集体补助率、地方政府补贴率、基础养老金率和人口增长率对资本积累、人均消费和养老金的影响,并寻求政策变量最优组合。研究发现,提高个人缴费率会增加养老金;提高集体补助率、地方政府补贴率以及人口增长率下降都会增加资本劳动比、人均消费和养老金;提高基础养老金率会降低资本劳动比和人均消费而增加养老金。同时,最优的地方政府和集体补贴率随最优基础养老金率同方向变动。若最优基础养老金率不变,则人口增长率小幅变动会引起最优地方政府和集体补贴率大幅反向变动。根据影响方向和力度,应提高个人缴费率和集体补助率,调整财政支出结构以维持现有基础养老金率、相应提高地方政府补贴率,控制人口增长率。     

参保人、缴费年限与养老保险制度框架寻求

按照我国现行城镇职工基本养老保险制度,对个人缴费不足15年的参保人员不予发放基础养老金,使已经参保的很多职工(以农民工为主)仍然被排除在有效保障范围之外。要尽快修改这一规定所决定的部分保障模式,将个人缴费不足15年的职工纳入基础养老金发放范围,实行按缴费年限系数由参保地计发基础养老金的新机制。     

农村社会养老保险收入再分配模型及实证分析——基于新农保的实践

2009年,我国农村社会养老保险在老农保基础上进行了制度创新,在坚持个人账户的同时,引入财政直接补贴的基础养老金制度,形成新农保制度框架,经试点后于2014年2月推广为城乡统一的居民社会养老保险制度。发端于新农保的居民社会养老保险改革具有更强的收入再分配特点,促进了社会公平。文章基于新农保实践,构建净收益收入再分配模型,通过实证分析测算代际内部、代际之间和城乡之间养老金收入再分配效果。     

Market Valuation,Pension Fund Policy and Contribution Volatility

Summary Market valuation is becoming more and more popular, both in accounting and regulation, as well as in academic circles. For pension funds and their participants, the knowledge that market-valued pension liabilities can indeed be transferred to a third party, if necessary, is a great virtue. Using a simulation model, this paper demonstrates the implicit costs and benefits of using market valuation for a typical Dutch pension fund, which offers a guaranteed average pay nominal pension with conditional indexation. The impact turns out to be fairly small, if fixed discount rates are still used for conditional rights. However, if market valuation is used for both unconditional and conditional rights, contribution volatility increases significantly. A remedy is to increase the duration of assets considerably. It is not clear, though, whether this option is available for large pension funds given the limited supply of long-term bonds. This paper benefited from discussions at seminars at DNB, PVK, ABP and CPB. We are grateful to Jan-Marc Berk, Dirk Broeders, and Peter van Els for useful suggestions and comments on a previous version of the paper. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of De Nederlandsche Bank.     

维吾尔族传统养老文化与社会养老方式的对接

在新疆农村社会养老保障体系的构建过程中,养老文化,特别是少数民族养老文化起着非常重要的作用。新疆各少数民族长期以来已形成了尊老爱幼、邻里帮助、社区互助和以孝为核心的传统养老文化。这种养老文化在促进新疆农村社会养老保障体系构建的同时,也有一定的负面影响。因此,我们应吸取其合理成分,坚持社会主义养老文化的主导地位,积极引导传统民族养老文化与社会主义社会相适应,建立具有民族特色和地方特色的现代养老文化。     

The Pension Age as a Factor Regulating the Deficit of the State Pension System

Contrary to the widely held attitude towards the necessity of immediately raising the retirement age, this article demonstrates the absence of demographic conditions for changing the existing regulations in granting pension insurance. The demographic factors are recognized as the basic development conditions of the state pension system; however, they have a multichannel impact on it, which requires a holistic and qualified analysis of all the relevant parameters for the governmental regulation. The pension age is viewed from the perspective of achieving the objectives of pension reform and strategic benchmarks in the long-term development of the Russian Pension system.     

Pension principles in the Swedish pension system

This article analyses the role of pension principles of funding and benefit provision for the development of the Swedish pension system. Focusing on four major public pension reforms in the twentieth century, it discusses why certain pension principles were used and under what circumstances they were more or less likely to change. The analysis shows that change was implemented to a large extent as a response to the previous pension system failing to fulfil its intended purpose in terms of financial stability, work incentives and redistribution.     

Pension fairness in China

The most populous country in the world, China faces immense socio-economic challenges providing adequate pensions to its growing elderly population. In that country, pensions available to older people vary considerably across the country's various pension schemes. This paper calculates the fairness coefficients of these pensions based on pension income, contributions, demand, and generational gap. The analysis shows that the pension fairness coefficients are 0.53, 0.38, 0.95, and 0.82, respectively. Synthesizing pension income, contributions, demand, and generational gap, the paper suggests that, in China, old-age pensions across different schemes are absolutely unfair. Finally, it analyzes the superficial and deeper factors behind pension unfairness in China before providing policy recommendations for improving the fairness of the country's pension system.     

Performance Persistence of Dutch Pension Funds

This paper studies the investment performance of pension funds with a focus on their ability in implementing their intended investment strategy. We use a sample of Dutch industry-wide pension funds, which are obliged by law to report their investment performance according to the so-called z-score. The z-score is a risk-adjusted performance measure with benchmark settings predefined by Dutch law. We find that pension funds as a group cannot beat their self-selected benchmarks consistently. Applying a cross-sectional portfolio approach we find evidence that the largest pension funds outperform the smallest funds.     

建立强制性企业年金制度探讨

目前在探讨中国企业年金制度的构架时,部分学者认为应发展为强制的企业年金计划,而更多的学者是将非强制性作为既定的前提。通过比较分析强制性与自愿性企业年金计划的利弊,探讨中国在强制性和自愿性企业年金制度的选择中需考虑的问题,可以认为在现有国情和制度框架内,自愿企业年金计划更为合理。但是,如果制度框架和国情发生了变化,是否仍实行自愿企业年金计划就值得重新探讨。     

老龄化时代社会养老模式研究

中国已于2000年步入老龄社会,养老模式逐渐由家庭养老转向社会养老,养老保障问题日益突出。为了有效促进我国养老模式选择的合理化运作,本文将就我国的养老形式进行进一步的探究,分析比较不同国家、地区独具特色的养老模式选择,并对我国现今所面临的养老保障不足及人口红利等问题提出相关政策建议。     

Pension Challenges and Pension Reforms in Oecd Countries

The 30 OECD member countries have very diverse pension systems.Current old-age public pension spending varies between lessthan 1 and more than 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).Public spending on pensions per person aged 65 or over variesfrom less than 15 to more than 40 per cent of economy-wide GDPper head. For workers entering the labour market today, thetarget pension from all mandatory sources for an average earnervaries between 30 and 100 per cent of individual earnings. Recentpension reforms have a number of common themes. First, pensioneligibility conditions have been tightened. Second, the indexationof pensions in payment has become less generous. Third, somepension schemes link benefit levels to changes in life expectancy.Finally, a number of countries have introduced defined-contributionpensions: privately managed schemes where the pension benefitdepends on contributions and investment returns. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: peter.whiteford{at}oecd.org; edward.whitehouse{at}oecd.org     

养老保险基金的安全运行问题

针对我国目前养老保险基金运行中存在的问题,提出适当调整个人账户养老金支付办法、严格执行法定退休制度、出售和划拨国有存量资产逐步“明偿”隐性债务和做实个人账户、提高政府财政对养老保险的补助支出、对养老保险基金进行有效投资运营使之保值增值等具体建议。     

Pension reform and saving in Britain

The paper examines the pension programme in Britain, focusingon reforms that have increased the fraction of the work-forceopting out of public provision and that have permitted individualsto choose their private pension provider. It also examines theissue of pension provision and household saving. The paper highlightsthe disparities in retirement saving behaviour across typesof pension provision and different households. The paper discussesthe policy issues of the adequacy of household saving, and theimpact of pension reform on household saving and the publicfinances.     

税收递延型养老储蓄设计及其对投资行为的影响

税收递延型(简称税延型)个人养老储蓄是上海国际金融建设的重要金融创新产品之一,也是我国养老保险制度发展的必然方向。国外税延型养老储蓄的具体设计及其变迁,为我国的相关制度设计提供参考。对税延型养老储蓄的经济影响,包括对常规储蓄、消费、投资以及纳税人的行为反应等的相关研究作回顾,为评估我国相关变量的变化提供研究方向。在总结国外相关经验的基础上,对我国税延型养老储蓄账户的类型及其管理方式提出简要规划。     

地理位置对公办养老机构与民办养老机构竞争关系影响研究

文章在考虑养老机构竞争受地理位置影响的基础上,建立了公办养老机构与民办养老机构的博弈模型。结果表明:老年人分布结构变化对公办及民办养老机构的利润带来相反方向的变化,且不完全市场覆盖下老年人分布结构变化对养老机构的影响程度更大;当政府对养老机构投入差距较小时,民办养老机构选址可以离公办养老机构更近,当投入差距较大时,选址应适当离公办养老机构更远;老年人对距离的厌恶程度越大,完全市场覆盖情形下养老机构的利润有所增加,不完全市场覆盖情形下的养老机构利润有所减少;养老机构周边老年人密度越大,服务成本系数差距及距离厌恶系数对其利润的影响越大。     

The Limits of Pension Privatization: Lessons from Argentine Experience

The paper studies the operation of the mixed pension system established in Argentina in 1994. It points to the limitations that the new system has encountered to achieve some of the most important objectives of pension policy and pension reform. The analysis looks at the mechanisms affecting pension system performance, with particular attention to the way in which the new pension rules have interacted with the local macroeconomic, social, and political context. The empirical analysis of this experience is oriented to provide lessons for Argentina’s future reforms, as well as for many Latin American countries with similar pension arrangements.     

Differentiating Indexation in Dutch Pension Funds

Funded social security programs are particularly vulnerable to economic and financial market shocks. As a consequence of the recent crisis, a large fraction of the Dutch pension funds had to submit restoration plans for the recovery of their buffers. Such plans will have to rely primarily on a mix of reduced benefit indexation and increased pension contributions. Hence, a discussion has emerged whether indexation should be differentiated across the various groups of participants in a pension fund. We investigate this issue numerically, developing an applied many-generation small open-economy OLG model with heterogeneous agents. The pension system consists of a first-pillar PAYG component and a second pillar with a pension fund. In our stochastic simulations, we hit the economy with a variety of unexpected demographic, economic and financial shocks. We compare uniform indexation of pension rights across all fund participants with alternatives such as status-contingent indexation in which pensions are protected against price inflation. While the aggregate welfare consequences are small, group-specific consequences are more substantial with the workers and future born losing and retirees benefitting from a shift away from uniform indexation. The exception is a scheme which links indexation directly to the fund’s asset performance. Under this scheme the retired benefit without other groups losing. The welfare effects are primarily the result of systematic welfare redistributions rather than of shifts in the benefits of risk sharing. Contribution rates always have to rise substantially from their initial levels to maintain the system’s sustainability. An increase in the retirement age that leaves existing pension rights untouched does little to avoid this rise with its adverse labour market consequences.     

养老机构数字化转型框架研究综述

养老机构数字化转型由于信息技术的进步和养老机构发展的局限性而受到广泛关注。对养老机构数字化转型进行文献梳理，结合企业、养老行业等的研究，从养老机构数字化转型的内涵、阶段划分、实现路径、面临障碍分析视角和策略等维度构建养老机构数字化转型研究的基本框架，总结现有研究的不足及未来转型的发展方向，为推动养老机构数字化转型提供有益参考。     

浅谈企业员工的企业年金

企业年金是企业及其职工在依法参加基本养老保险的基础上,自愿建立的补充养老保险制度,作为一种员工长期激励的手段,可以提高企业的凝聚力。本文通过对企业年金的需求分析,发现企业年金在我国有着巨大的现实需求和发展前景,并针对目前企业年金实践当中存在的问题,提出了几点意见。