我国第三产业发展与就业增长互动关系研究

通过构建VAR模型对我国第三产业发展与就业增长的关系进行了实证研究。协整分析表明第三产业与就业增长之间存在着长期协同互动关系。VAR模型及脉冲响应函数的动态分析表明我国第三产业发展表现为相互促进的累积过程;劳动力投入是影响第三产业发展的重要因素,就业人数的增长对第三产业发展有巨大的推动作用;第三产业具有很大的就业吸纳空间。最后根据就业吸纳弹性来阐明第三产业发展对劳动力的吸纳能力并提出相应的政策建议。     

Employment and Changing Technology in the Postwar Railroad Industry

Secularly declining employment has characterized the postwar railroad industry. This study identifies some causes of this decline by testing an industry employment function. The introduction of new techniques of production, especially the conversion from steam to diesel locomotives, along with rising wages and deregulation, are found to be the primary factors behind the fall in industry employment.     

制造业产业结构与就业结构的协调性研究

本文根据1998～2013年制造业细分行业的产出与就业等数据，分别运用结构协调度和结构偏离度来测量制造业总体和制造业三大子行业产业结构与就业结构的协调程度。结果发现制造业总体的协调度呈现出先恶化再改善的倒“U”型的走势，制造业三大子行业结构偏离度的走势虽各有特点，但与制造业总体协调度大体保持了一致性。此外，本文采用了偏最小二乘模型（PLS）对影响制造业产业结构和就业结构协调性的因素进行了分析，结果表明制造业发展战略、对外开放程度、市场化程度、劳动者素质和技术进步是影响产业结构与就业结构协调性的主要因素。     

Immigration and Informal Labor

We develop state‐level proxies for informal employment using differences between measures of self‐reported employment and officially sanctioned employment. In construction and landscaping, industries associated with under‐the‐table labor, we develop proxies for informal work based on productivity per officially sanctioned worker. We relate each set of proxies for informal employment to changes in immigrant population and composition. We find some evidence that immigration is associated with informal employment generally and in the construction industry when prevailing wages are low. States with high concentrations of low‐skilled male immigrants have higher levels of informal employment in the landscaping industry.     

第二产业生产服务与第二产业生产率——基于面板数据的实证研究

根据OECD发布的24个国家投入产出表,分别计算了1995年、2000年和2005年各国第二产业的劳动生产率,采用面板数据模型检验了第二产业生产服务对第二产业生产率,以及对第二产业就业和产出的影响。检验结果表明,当服务投入在第二产业总产出中所占比重不断提高时,第二产业劳动生产率将随之提高,并不会减少第二产业就业人数。因此,第二产业生产服务对第二产业产出有显著的促进作用。     

Employment dynamics in the Italian telecommunications industry

Important quantitative and qualitative changes are affecting employment in the telecommunications manufacturing and services industry worldwide, namely the selective downsizing of employment stocks, the reshaping of job contents and employment composition, and the adoption of innovative labour practices. By resorting to micro-data from the archives of the Italian Institute for Social Security, the paper outlines employment dynamics in the Italian telecommunications industry between 1986 and 1995. Most notable changes detected for public telecommunications operators include the acceleration of inter-companies labour flows and the development of an external labour market for higher skilled employees. However, personnel policies to protect the holders of less tradable skills still exist.     

产业结构与就业结构动态演进与互动效率研究——基于四川省个案分析

促进产业结构与就业结构相协调,是实现四川省产业结构优化调整和劳动力充分就业的根本途径.从产业结构与就业结构的动态演进和互动效率分析可知,四川省的第一、三产业变动对就业变动有增加的趋势,第二产业变动对就业变动有减少的趋势.第一产业就业结构与产业结构的不协调性明显增加,第二、三产业就业结构与产业结构协调化程度逐步增强,第三产业基本实现协调化,据此并提出相应的措施和建议.     

Employment,technological diffusion and oligopoly

This paper takes a simple model of the diffusion process and analyses the employment implications. Two factors tending to make employment fall to a low point at some intermediate position along the diffusion path are identified. It is argued that the path of industry employment during diffusion will in general not be monotomic.     

河北省第三产业发展的就业效应研究

从第三产业整体和内部两个维度,对河北省第三产业的产业结构、就业弹性和就业结构偏离度等指标进行了分析,借以发现河北省重点发展行业,为今后河北经济的发展和解决就业问题提供依据。     

Local IndustryEmployment Share and the Experiences of Displaced Workers

This article examines how industries' share of employment in local labor markets affects displaced workers' reemployment, industry switching, and earnings losses. A key result is that workers displaced from industries with low employment shares are more likely to switch industries after displacement. Earnings loss estimates indicate that for most workers, displacement from an industry that employs a smaller share of the local labor force is associated with larger earnings losses.     

外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响

本文利用UNCTAD数据和中国人口普查微观数据,基于地区就业的行业结构和贸易对象国对中国征收的行业层面的进口关税,构建地区层面外部关税变动指标,研究外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响。研究发现:(1)外部关税下降幅度越高的地区,总体就业、可贸易部门和不可贸易部门的就业增加也越多;(2)出口和内销规模扩张的就业创造效应、生产率提升的就业破坏效应,是外部关税下降影响地区可贸易部门就业的重要渠道;(3)外部关税下降带来的地区可贸易部门出口扩张、就业增加和工资上涨,通过产业关联和消费驱动等正向溢出效应增加地区不可贸易部门就业,通过就业的部门间再配置效应减少地区不可贸易部门就业;(4)外部关税下降对地区不可贸易部门就业的影响呈现出先抑制后促进的动态演进过程,这与外部关税变动下中国区域劳动力供给的调整紧密相关。此外,外部关税变动对地区不同属性劳动力就业的影响效果存在显著差异。本文的研究结论对于外部关税变动下稳定区域劳动力就业的相关政策制定具有一定的参考意义。     

Do Sectoral Employment Programs Work? New Evidence from New York City's Sector‐Focused Career Centers

While sectoral employment is growing as an approach to providing job opportunities to disadvantaged jobseekers, there is little evidence on the effectiveness of these programs. This study estimates impacts on employment and earnings of three large sectoral employment programs in New York City using a quasi‐experimental design and administrative data on earnings. Participants realized increased employment levels and earnings gains. In addition, participants who received industry‐specific training had greater earnings gains than those who did not.     

新兴产业对经济发展的时变性影响——来自京津冀地区的经验分析

本文建立了带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型（SV-TVP-VAR）,以京津冀地区为研究对象,分析了不同时期新兴产业发展对地区生产总值、财政收入以及就业的影响。研究结果发现：（1）新常态时期新兴产业的发展对京津冀经济状况的影响程度大于在全球经济危机时期和经济高速发展时期的影响程度,但在大部分时期新兴产业的发展都只会对京津冀的经济状况产生负向效应;（2）如果经济增长是首要经济目标,天津应该加强新兴产业的发展,如果就业是首要经济目标,河北应该加强新兴产业的发展。     

Innovation trajectories and employment in the cleaning industry

The cleaning industry is a service industry which is currently undergoing major changes in scope and omplexity and increasing use of information technologies. This paper highlights the various innovation trajectories which apply to the cleaning industry and seeks to link these to the employment structure in the sector.     

Employment Growth and Stability under Profit-Sharing: A Longitudinal Study

This study tests the hypotheses that employment will increase and become more stable when firms replace traditional reward systems with a bifurcated approach incorporating profit-sharing. Time-series data for 443 publicly traded profit-sharing firms and a closely matched group of industry non-sharers were analysed before and after plan implementation. While there was evidence that profit-sharing generated short-term growth, little support emerged for its theorized effect on employment variability. Unlike previous reports, organizational size was more likely to influence the impact of share arrangements than was industry type.     

Does the UK Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? A Meta‐Regression Analysis

The employment effect from raising the minimum wage has long been studied but remains in dispute. Our meta‐analysis of 236 estimated minimum wage elasticities and 710 partial correlation coefficients from 16 UK studies finds no overall practically significant adverse employment effect. Unlike US studies, there seems to be little, if any, overall reporting bias. Multivariate meta‐regression analysis identifies several research dimensions that are associated with differential employment effects. In particular, the residential home care industry may exhibit a genuinely adverse employment effect.     

New technologies and employment: industry and firm level evidence from Turkey

Here the authors investigate the impact of new technology on employment at country, industry and firm level using evidence from a study of the Turkish chemical and engineering industries. They conclude by attempting to outline policy considerations related to the long term negative impact of technology on employment in developing countries.     

Postgraduate scientists and R&D: the role of reputation in organisational choice

This paper reports on a series of interviews with postgraduate scientists in a number of UK universities. The interviews were designed to investigate the attitude of young scientists to employment in the pharmaceutical industry. The sample consisted of postgraduates in the biological sciences and included a broad cross-section of universities. The primary objective was to ascertain each student's ideal employer and to establish the role organisational reputation played in that choice. Students not intending to seek employment in commercial R&D were asked to explain why they had made that decision. The research established that knowledge of potential employers in the pharmaceutical industry was concentrated on two major companies, ICI and Glaxo. Students not considering the pharmaceutical industry indicated that lack of academic freedom was their major concern.     

陕西省技术进步对就业的影响研究

技术进步对就业的破坏机制和补偿机制同时存在。技术进步的就业破坏机制,表现为就业总量减少;技术进步的就业补偿机制,则表现为就业总量增加。本文通过对陕西省技术进步和就业的现状及其存在的现实问题研究分析,提出了加大科研投入,强化企业在自主创新中的主体地位、采取更为积极和灵活的政策,推进科技成果向产品转化、完善技术创新体系,推动技术转移扩散、全面提升产业结构,大力发展第三产业等对策和建议。     

Non‐Standard Time Wage Premiums and Employment Effects: Evidence from an Australian Natural Experiment

We examine the effect of increasing Sunday wage premiums on retail industry employment in Australia, exploiting a quasi‐experimental policy change across two neighbouring states. Using both aggregate and individual‐level data, we adopt a difference‐in‐difference regression framework to estimate the causal impact of the policy change on employment outcomes. We find no evidence of changes in the total number of employees, and no effect on hours per employee in the years following the policy implementation. However, there appeared to be a decline in hours per employee in the announcement year of the policy change. Overall, it appears that in an industry dominated by part‐time and casual employment, any adjustment to the new Sunday wage rates occurred principally through flexibility in hours, rather than in the number of employees.