The impact of sustainable energy production on land use in Britain through to 2050

Historically, land use in Britain has been shaped by the environment's capacity to provide energy as well as food, water and shelter. Over the next decades, energy will again become a major driver in land cover change as we seek to capture the necessary energy to replace fossil fuels, reduce environmental damage and substitute for insecure supplies. Britain was one of the first places to exploit fossil fuels extensively, initially coal, and it has the potential to generate considerable amounts of renewable energy from tides, waves, the wind, biomass and sunlight. The UK Government's policy is to develop a suite of technologies that will provide a resilient supply without compromising its economy or its international commitments to environmental protection.This paper examines the three major terrestrial options for renewable energy and assesses each by successively filtering them for feasibility, achievability and practicality incorporating existing developments, designation and public opinion. Technology and opinion are dynamic, so the outputs need to be viewed as indicative of alternative scenarios rather than as fixed forecasts. Implications for changes in the energy supply infrastructure needed to match the new supply chains are highlighted.The demand for energy depends on the demographic profile (population size, age distribution, lifestyle and expectations) and on economic activity. Here total demand is predicted using the UK Energy Research Centre's Energy 2050 model, which uses linear programming to balance economics and environmental capacity by major demand sectors in five-year time steps. The core model often generates challenging results.     

资源枯竭型城市工矿用地退出利益冲突及解决策略研究

深度挖掘工矿用地的潜在价值将满足资源枯竭型城市转型发展过程中的用地需求,减小政府的土地开发成本,保障有限的土地资源得到最有效使用。本文以工矿企业持续退出,城市转型发展对建设用地需求增大为背景,以地方政府、工矿企业、投资商为主要利益相关者,构建完全信息动态博弈模型,分析工矿用地退出中存在的利益冲突。研究表明:地方政府、工矿企业、投资商在工矿用地退出过程中将会以各自所能获利多少进行博弈。只有各利益主体积极表达利益诉求,厘清产权归属,使各利益主体均衡享有工矿用地退出收益才能更好实现退出进程。     

城乡统筹视角下的集体建设用地市场发育测度及影响因素研究 ——以30个入市改革试点为例

研究目的:探究中国当前集体建设用地市场的构建和发育情况及其与国有建设用地市场的关系,分析影响集体建设用地市场发育程度的因素。研究方法:面积比重测度法,逐步最小二乘法。研究结果:(1)各试点区县的集体土地市场发育程度分化明显,除广东(0.77)、广西(0.53)外,各试点区县的市场发育指数均不超过0.4;(2)集体建设用地市场发育指数主要受建设用地需求和地方政策两方面的影响,而试点时长和经济发展水平影响不显著。研究结论:受国有建设用地市场影响,在近郊和乡村,集体建设用地市场的构建和发育遵循不同的逻辑;在市场发育初期,地方政府应主动构建有效的市场机制和增值收益分配机制,以培育城乡统一的建设用地市场。     

广东省建设用地节约集约利用重点与对策分析

研究目的：从有关调查数据、用地增长结构和人均用地等角度进行分析研究,找出广东开展节约集约用地的重点地类,并提出实现节约集用地的相应对策。研究方法：文献资料法和情况分析法。研究结果：建设用地节约集约利用重点是城镇闲置用地和低效用地、独立工矿用地中的各类园区、农村居民点用地中空心村和废弃宅基地。研究结论：从区位优势和再利用的选择上,较可行的城镇闲置地的盘活和低效用地的改造,以及加强对园区的控制和管理;从量上看,节约集约空间最大的农村居民点,但现行体制和政策下,短期内有效压缩的空间并不大。     

2014年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2015年展望

研究目的:总结2014年国内外土地科学研究的重点进展,展望2015年中国土地科学的发展趋势以及《中国土地科学》重点关注方向。研究方法:文献调研法。研究结果:(1)2014年国内外土地科学研究共同关注征地制度和土地产权问题、土地利用动态监测与驱动机制、多规合一及规划方法创新、土地利用管理措施、土地市场价格机制及政府行为、农用地生态保护、农用地整治和矿区土地复垦方面;(2)2014年国内外土地科学研究的主要差异集中在:国内研究还关注土地制度改革、土地利用评价、城乡统一的建设用地市场建设、耕地质量提升及保护途径、城镇工矿建设用地整治等问题;国外研究则侧重土地制度的历史变迁及影响、土地利用冲突问题、土地供应策略、土地市场与产权制度的关系、农地抛荒及保护对象划定、土地开发与保护机制、土地整治景观格局研究。研究结论:在全面推介土地科学研究成果的基础上,2014年《中国土地科学》将重点关注4个方面:(1)加强国土资源法制建设,推动深化依宪立法、修法,依宪执政研究;(2)开展城乡一体化土地市场建设与制度建设研究;(3)加快土地工程技术和新技术应用的创新研究;(4)深化土地学科建设研究,支撑"新常态"下的国土资源管理工作。     

孝感市土地利用与生态环境建设协调发展研究

土地可持续利用越来越受到人们的关注,土地利用与生态环境建设协调发展,也逐步成为研究的重点;以孝感市为例,从土地利用潜力与生态环境建设适宜性,土地生态环境存在的主要问题及土地利用对生态环境的影响等方面进行分析,然后对孝感市土地从生态建设和环境保护方面进行分区,最后对生态建设用地布局提出了建议。     

土地利用结构与能源消耗碳排放的关联测度及其特征解释

研究目的:测度土地利用结构与能源消耗碳排放的关联度,解释地区内与地区间的两者关联差异,利用关联差异寻找可以控制能源消耗碳排放实现土地低碳利用的路径。研究方法:灰色关联分析,演绎法。研究结果:土地利用结构与能源消耗碳排放关联度存在差异。东、中部居民点及独立工矿用地与能源消耗碳排放的关联度最高,建设用地的关联度明显大于农用地;西部耕地与能源消耗碳排放的关联度最高,建设用地关联度大于农用地,但两者接近。东、中、西部之间,除耕地外,各地类与能源消耗碳排放的关联度东部大于中部,中部大于西部。研究结论:调整土地利用结构控制能源消耗碳排放是可能的,因地制宜地控制建设用地蔓延,优化居民点及独立工矿用地利用,注意农用地利用中的碳排放作用,有助于实现土地低碳利用。     

Economic analysis of exploitation and regeneration in plantations with problematic site productivity

Although intensive managed plantations clearly increase the growth and yield of forests several papers refer to declining forest productivity. Therefore in this paper we study the impact of declining forest productivity on the land expectation value and the optimal rotation length. We start from the research by Lu and Chang (1996) and try to fill the gap between the stable site productivity (“best”) and the site mining (“worst”) cases. For that we extend the classical Faustmann model by availability of different recovering technologies. In general the model allows the analysis of the two plantation groups: “mining the site by high productive plantation followed by management of degraded areas” and “high productive plantation and regeneration cycling” with the same comparative static. The model, analysis and comparison with the two extreme cases in Lu and Chang (1996) leads to a detailed understanding of land use management when site productivity decline is possible. Particularly the relation between declining periods with intensive land use and land use alternatives after declining periods with regeneration can be well understood. Findings are: Not ever declining process asks for regeneration. Many declining processes can be stopped at early times by high cash flows after mining periods. Shortenings of the regeneration time can boost site mining intensities.     

集体建设用地使用制度改革中的几个问题

在法律上确定集体建设用地进入市场是集体建设用地使用制度改革的中心任务。在市场配置集体建设用地过程中 ,集体建设用地只需符合规划并合法取得。集体土地产权界定是搞好土地市场配置的基本前提 ,而依产权关系和引致土地增值的投资所有者关系分配建设用地收益是集体建设用地使用制度改革的关键。     

Agricultural technology and land use futures: The UK case

This paper explores how agricultural technology has interacted with recent land use in the UK and how it might do so in the next 50 years. From 1960 to 1985, farmers successfully used technology to increase the output of crop and animal products per unit of land and particularly of labour. This reduced the number of people employed in agriculture, and promoted larger and more specialised farm enterprises. Between 1985 and 2006, food prices were relatively low, and although labour productivity continued to increase, land productivity remained relatively static. However during this period, farmers started to address the effects of agriculture on reduced water quality and habitat loss.For established agricultural products, technological innovation tends to have an incremental effect, working through genetic improvement, the removal of abiotic and biotic stress (e.g. crop nutrition and protection, irrigation and drainage, and animal nutrition, health and housing) and the substitution of labour. Whereas the first two processes tend to be scale-neutral, the substitution of labour is usually easiest to achieve on larger farms. Other key areas for technological innovation include addressing air, soil and water quality, biodiversity, waste reduction, and information management. Over the next 50 years, large step-changes in land use arising from agricultural technology are predicted to arise from the development of new markets for agricultural products. A strong bioenergy sector will strengthen the links between crop commodity and energy prices and will have a major effect on future land use. Climate change and the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions will alter the relative profitability of crop and animal production systems. Lastly, increased public awareness of the links between food, health and the environment could substantially shift the demand for specific agricultural products.Continual improvements in agricultural technology are pivotal to providing society with the flexibility to balance the challenges of improving human well-being with the management of the planet's ecosystem. Increased technological innovation increases the probability that agricultural land can be used for other purposes, but the exact relationship is dependent on trade and environmental policies. The large external effects of agriculture mean that decisions regarding the adoption of future technologies should be taken by farmers working with other stakeholders.     

基于农户意愿的农村宅基地集约面积估算——以渝东北11区县为例

研究目的：选取地处三峡库区腹地且生态环境脆弱的渝东北11区县为研究区域,从农户意愿角度揭示满足宅基地需求最大化时的人均宅基地集约用地面积,为农村宅基地集约利用乃至农村建设用地集约利用提供建议。研究方法：农户调查法,消费效用函数计算,K值聚类分析法。研究结果：农户宅基地用地需求与农户建房支出水平、农村房屋建造单价、农户消费偏好、房屋需求强度等存在依赖关系;在满足宅基地需求最大化时的最佳户均宅基地面积为122.14 — 140.06 m2/户,最佳人均农村宅基地面积为31.32 — 35.91 m2/人。研究结论：渝东北地区农村宅基地的集约利用潜力巨大,农村建设用地集约利用潜力挖掘具有极强可行性,应扎实推进宅基地内部挖潜,着力探索农村宅基地集约利用新机制。     

中国耕地供需变化规律研究

研究目的：探讨中国城市化 — 工业化用地需求和满足粮食安全的耕地供给之间的消长关系及变化规律,以期为国家土地利用政策提供科学依据。研究方法：首先提出关于最小人均耕地面积（即满足粮食安全的人均耕地需求）和耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂的假设。然后对历年中国耕地的统计数据进行订正,重建1980 — 2006年耕地数据序列。据此计算了同期的最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数（反映耕地需求和供给的对比关系）,并验证耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂假设。研究结果：保障粮食安全的人均耕地需求数量逐渐降低,耕地压力指数虽先降后升但总体呈下降趋势。中国在基本满足城市化 — 工业化用地需求和生态退耕,因而满足粮食安全需求的耕地供给不断减少,同时人口又不断增加的情况下,粮食安全状况非但没有恶化,反而有所改善;耕地压力指数非但没有加重,反而有所减轻,根本原因在于土地生产率的不断提高。耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂增长过程的推导和证明,显示了两个拐点分别出现在1980年和2050年,前者是从缓慢到加速的转折点;后者是从增长到停滞的转折点,保证粮食安全的耕地供给将趋于稳定。其间还有一个由加速到减缓的拐点将出现在2015年。研究结论：城市化 — 工业化用地需求和粮食安全用地需求可以兼顾。     

环境约束下中国城市土地利用效率空间差异及驱动机制 ——基于285个地级及以上城市的研究

研究目的:明确环境约束下中国城市土地利用效率空间差异及驱动机制。研究方法:基于序列DEA的SE-U-SBM模型、Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、Markov链和空间杜宾模型。研究结果:环境约束下中国城市土地利用效率整体偏低,存在空间不均衡特征且具有波动扩大趋势,空间因素对城市土地利用效率具有不可忽视的影响,与高(低)水平为邻能够提高本地城市土地利用效率向上(下)转移的概率。地市空间尺度下产业结构升级对城市土地利用效率具有显著为正的直接效应,政府财力直接效应和间接效应均为负,城市化进程和人口密度对城市土地利用效率的直接效应和间接效应均不显著。研究结论:提升中国城市土地利用效率应坚持绿色集约导向,从新型城镇化推进、产业结构升级、营商环境建设和节能减排等方面系统推进,积极发挥土地利用效率领先城市的溢出和示范作用。     

Can life cycle assessment be used to evaluate plant breeding objectives to improve supply chain sustainability? A worked example using porridge oats from the UK

The challenge for agricultural production in the 21st century is to produce sufficient high-quality food whilst minimizing impact. Life cycle assessment (LCA) can help by identifying the parts of a supply chain with the greatest environmental impact, and to determine which technologies – for example plant breeding – may be most appropriately employed to minimize negative impacts. A ‘plough-to-plate’ LCA of a porridge oat production chain was undertaken using data that corresponds to the inputs and outputs of an indicative supply chain. The greatest environmental impact of the porridge oats life cycle occurs in crop production and cooking. There are traits for oats that are available for manipulation by plant breeders, which can influence these areas; these include yield, nitrogen use efficiency and beta-glucan content. Therefore plant breeding may be a useful strategy for improving the sustainability of the crop. However LCA cannot be a definitive tool to guide plant breeding and therefore this approach needs to compliment others. Nevertheless this study highlights that porridge oat supply chain sustainability would benefit from an integrated effort stretching from the geneticist to consumer; a finding that is likely to be relevant to other food supply chains.     

The Contribution of Bioenergy to a New Energy Paradigm

Biomass is a widely available resource that is receiving increased consideration as a renewable substitute for fossil fuels. Developed sustainably and used efficiently, it can induce growth in developing countries, reduce oil demand, and address environmental problems. The potential benefits include: reduction of greenhouse gases, recuperation of soil productivity and degraded land, economic benefits from adding value to agricultural activities and improving access to and quality of energy services. The production of bioenergy involves a range of technologies, including solid combustion, gasification, and fermentation. These technologies produce energy from a diverse set of biological resources - traditional crops, crop residues, energy-dedicated crops, dung, and the organic component of urban waste. The results are bioenergy products that provide multiple energy services: cooking fuel, heat, electricity and transportation fuels. It is this very diversity that holds the potential of a win-win-win for the environment, social and economic development. Bioenergy has to be viewed not as a replacement for oil, but as an element of a portfolio of renewable sources of energy. Coherent and mutually supportive environmental and economic policies may be needed to encourage the emergence of a globally dispersed bioenergy industry that will pursue a path of sustainable development.     

建设用地对碳排放的影响关系研究

研究目的:研究建设用地对碳排放的影响。研究方法:基于随机形式的环境影响对人口、人均GDP和建设用地回归分析的STIRPAT模型方法。研究结果:测算1997—2007年分省碳排放量,分析1997—2007年碳排放对人口、人均GDP和建设用地的弹性系数。研究结论:人口、人均GDP和建设用地扩张是碳排放的主要驱动因素,建设用地扩张作为工业化和城市化的直接体现,对碳排放具有显著的正向影响;调整土地利用结构可起到抑制或缓解碳排放影响的作用。     

商业性矿产资源勘查工作内容及运行体制探讨

商业性矿产资源勘查工作的目标是为延长矿山服务年限,为扩建、新建矿山和国家战略储备等提供矿产资源保障。因此要根据矿业市场的需求,参照公益性地质调查工作提供的相关信息,有针对性地开展找矿评价直至勘探工作,有选择地涵盖预查、普查、详查和勘探等阶段的矿产资源勘查工作。国家有关政府部门对发展商业性矿产资源勘查工作可以进行战略性地引导,设立国家矿产勘查风险基金,组建相关部门进行管理,建立一支精干的、各具特色的商业性矿产地质勘查科技队伍,建立矿产资源勘查工作的立项和成果转让评估公司。     

矿农复合区农户耕地利用集约度影响因素分析——以晋城市泽州县22个村为例

[目的]矿农复合区耕地利用方式关系区域生态经济可持续发展,分析不同生计类型农户耕地集约利用水平及影响因素对协调区域人—地矛盾、提高耕地资源利用率和推进土地有序流转具有现实意义。[方法]以晋城市泽州县长河流域22个村为研究区,基于385份有效农户问卷,选用mlogit多值选择模型分析影响矿农复合区农户耕地集约度的因素。[结果]矿农复合区不同农户类型的耕地利用集约度及其内部结构存在较大差异,基本呈现人力资产型矿农复合型自然资产型基本型缺失型的规律。制约耕地利用集约度的因素包括农户家庭土地资源禀赋、劳动力状况和采煤土地损毁情况,政策因素对其影响不显著。[结论]应加大对缺失型和基础型农户的土地修复补偿费,加快健全土地流转市场,形成以发展型农户为主体的家庭农场,进而提高农民农业生产积极性和耕地利用集约度。     

Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of construction land change in a poverty-stricken county of China and implications for poverty-alleviation-oriented land use policies

Sustainable land use, targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) and integrated urban/town development are key issues for the poverty-stricken counties of China. This paper explored the spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of construction land change in Longzhou, a typical poverty-stricken border county in southwest China, based on high-resolution remote sensing images and field investigations. The results showed that, from 2011 to 2016, the construction land in Longzhou increased by 10.08%. The largest increase shown by urban built-up areas (37.74%) followed by rural residential (25.48%), industrial and mining (20.96%), and transportation areas (15.49%) as well by tourist facility areas (0.33%). The accelerated urban development, rural housing construction, and construction of industrial parks and transportation facilities are main factors driving construction land expansion, while the implementation of TPA strategy and the booming of border trade activities are important policy drivers of the construction land expansion. Some of the major implications for improving poverty-alleviation-oriented land use policies were further discussed. The authors argue that land use policy innovation could play a key role in breaking the Matthew effect (poor get poorer, rich get richer) of China's uneven regional development and generating and accelerating the transformation development of poverty-stricken counties. It is fundamental to meet the demand of construction land for TPA, meanwhile raise the intensive level of land utilization. The authors suggest that the government need to further improve and implement preferential land use policies for poverty-stricken counties from the provincial level, appropriately increase the quotas of construction land, and effectively strengthen the rational, efficient and intensive use of the quotas of construction land, and provide solid land policy support for poverty alleviation and thus achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with higher quality.     

中国建设用地爬坡潜在重点县域识别与分析

研究目的：识别全国建设用地爬坡潜在重点县域,服务国家低丘缓坡开发用地宏观管控。研究方法：以县域为统计单元,利用人口普查、数字高程模型和建设用地遥感解译数据,建立识别框架开展识别,并借助空间自相关、标准差椭圆、平均最近邻距离等方法对识别结果基本特征进行分析。研究结果：（1）识别框架分人口集聚势能、人均用地门槛和用地比率门槛3方面要素,共计9项判别指标,被识别县域须同时满足所有判别指标要求;（2）共识别出潜在重点爬坡县域311个,它们整体具备人口密度较大、坡地建设现象较普遍、建设用地需求较旺盛的统计特征;（3）潜在重点爬坡县域绝大部分位于东部季风区,尤其集中于温暖湿润的南方地区。研究结论：在全国范围上统筹指标体系,判断县域建设用地的爬坡迫切程度和潜力,可为深入谋划低丘缓坡开发用地指标的区域分配政策提供基础参考,有利于重点区域推进实施集约式爬坡和防止建设用地增量浪费。