The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries

Hysteresis (unit root) of the current account, fiscal balance, and investment shares is found for the majority of industrial countries as well as selected emerging and transition economies between 1970 and 2001. Twin deficits are defined as a positive long-run relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance. The paper provides evidence for twin deficits in several countries, although we can see differences between the 1980s and the 1990s. Investment in some EU countries is financed to a relatively high degree at the international financial markets implying that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle is less important in the EU.     

财政赤字率和政府收入赤字率研究

转轨国家往往通过隐性债务和透支收入来转移财政支出压力。真实赤字应该包括隐性债务赤字和透支收入赤字。本文从赤字融资方式构建了三种口径的赤字率。其中,政府收入赤字率Ⅰ包括财政赤字率和隐性债务赤字率;政府收入赤字率Ⅱ是政府收入赤字率Ⅰ和透支收入赤字率之和。自1980年以来我国财政赤字率都在3%之内,但政府收入赤字率Ⅰ围绕10%波动,政府收入赤字率Ⅱ围绕15%波动。控制隐性债务和减少透支收入是防范化解财政风险的根本举措。     

TQM and BPR: Beyond the Beyond Myth

It is generally assumed in the popular management literature that the TQM (total quality management) and BPR (business process re-engineering) movements are the two latest expressions of an increasing sophistication in management techniques and principles. Following this logic it only is a matter of time before they will be superseded by yet another management innovation. This paper aims to explode this ‘beyond’ myth by exposing the underlying logic of TQM and BPR implementation patterns in two case companies. Empirical findings will be related back to critical approaches to the study of TQM and BPR. Concrete suggestions as to how to move beyond the quick fix managerial mode will be proposed. Our approach is intended to provide a counterweight to the unreflective discourse surrounding TQM and BPR by breaking open the naturalness of this discourse. It supplies a few landmarks for managers and researchers to take a step back, hesitate, and reflect on the phenomenon of planned organizational change.     

日本震后财政赤字的评判

日本大地震导致的核危机进一步引发国际市场对日本财政赤字隐忧的担心,普遍观点认为其财政赤字会进一步恶化,进而引起债务危机。通过对日本财政赤字的结构性分析可以看出,日本财政支出占比GDP的根本指标长期稳定,且导致已有财政赤字和债务的原因在于日本长期执行低税率,同时地震影响对其国内经济发展有一定局限性。     

1号店“双剑”

当身边的人都朝着一个方向奔走，于刚、刘峻岭说，他们曾经也是人群中随大流的一份子，一直以来，他们都朝着人群前行的方向努力地追赶着，有一天，当他们发现自己已经走在人群前列时，他们突然有了调转方向的念头。     

Budgetary Procedures and Deficits in Norwegian Local Governments

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the connection between budgetary procedures and deficits in Norwegian local governments. We argue that centralized budgetary procedures have an advantage in overcoming common-pool resource problems in the decision-making process and will lead to lower deficits. This hypothesis is tested on a panel data set of Norwegian local governments. The results add to the existing evidence of a negative connection between deficits and the degree of centralization of the budget process. Special emphasis is put on the problem with potential biased estimates resulting from endogeneity of the budgetary variables.     

超越ISO9000

摘译 质量控制有两种类型,分成为购买好的商品而进行的质量控制和为生产好的产品而进行的质量控制.ISO 9001是从购买者的角度向组织提出的质量控制要求,因此属于为购买好的商品而进行的质量控制,TQM则主要是关于为制造好的产品而进行的质量控制.     

Beyond Publication Bias

Abstract.  This review considers several meta‐regression and graphical methods that can differentiate genuine empirical effect from publication bias. Publication selection exists when editors, reviewers, or researchers have a preference for statistically significant results. Because all areas of empirical research are susceptible to publication selection, any average or tally of significant/insignificant studies is likely to be biased and potentially misleading. Meta‐regression analysis can see through the murk of random sampling error and selected misspecification bias to identify the underlying statistical structures that characterize genuine empirical effect. Meta‐significance testing and precision‐effect testing (PET) are offered as a means to identify empirical effect beyond publication bias and are applied to four areas of empirical economics research – minimum wage effects, union‐productivity effects, price elasticities, and tests of the natural rate hypothesis.     

Beyond technology dependence

Technology and globalization have the potential to make higher education more affordable and accessible. In practice, however, rising costs limit educational access, and competition threatens the sustainability of many colleges and universities (Grummon, 2009). With the relevance of traditional curricula in question and the demand for alternate delivery methods expanding, many higher learning institutions face a challenge to reinvent themselves (Barnatt, 2008; Grummon, 2009; Lee, Brennan, & Green, 2009). We asked four higher education leaders from demographically and structurally diverse institutions to address the question, “How will colleges and universities serve the global knowledge economy in the coming decades?” Our respondents represent perspectives from multiple educational paradigms—public and private, local and international, for‐profit and nonprofit, brick‐and‐mortar and online. George Mihel, president of Sauk Valley Community College in Illinois, offers a position paper on the need to transform some of higher education’s deep‐rooted institutional traditions. George Miller, chancellor of American InterContinental University, teams with Caroline Molina‐Ray, a University of Phoenix faculty member, to address how higher education can foster both technological competency and critically reflexive thinking. Naana J. S. Opoku‐Agyemang, vice chancellor of the University of Cape Coast in Ghana, offers insight into the unique challenges and accomplishments of higher education in Africa. Finally, Vicki T. Purslow, associate dean of the College of Arts and Sciences at Southern Oregon University, and Christine Cook Florence, a higher education marketing consultant, present a commentary synthesizing the symposium contributions and issuing a call to action for higher education leaders. Together, these diverse perspectives offer a glimpse into the higher education of the future.     

Beyond being aware

To support collaborative interactions, information systems need to support awareness: Collaborators must attain and maintain reciprocal awareness of shared activity in order to coordinate effectively. Supporting awareness has often been conceptualized a matter of ameliorating deficits inherent in remote interaction. In this paper, we consider awareness support in several community informatics contexts from the standpoint of better-leveraging affordances unique to remote community-oriented interactions. We suggest positive design strategies to design awareness support “beyond” what is typical in traditional face-to-face interchange.     

Beyond spatial representation

The correspondence between theory and observation is often evaluated by a comparison between a hypothesized constraint matrix and the spatial representation of a pxp similarity matrix. This comparison of constraint and proximity matrices assumes the accurate translation of similarities to proximities. If the translation is not exact (i.e., a stress or alienation coefficient greater than zero), the hypothesized structure is evaluated using a false representation of the observed data. The proposed model eliminates the need for spatial representation by making a direct comparison between the hypothesized constraint matrix and the multivariate structure of the bivariate similarities. Goodness of fit indices are used for three model comparisons; (1) single data set, one hypothesized structure; (2) single data set, two hypothesized structures; and (3) two data sets, one hypothesized structure.     

跨越S曲线

无论企业当前主营业务多么旺盛,都有衰败之时;所以跨越当前财务增长曲线,向新业务转型,是企业重获生机的必然之选卓越绩效企业的转型经验表明,只有在市场增长曲线、能力增长曲线、人才开发增长曲线三个隐藏曲线的拐点出现之前谋求转型,转型才有成功的把握寻求新的增长点,谋求产业转型总是一些企业的迫切需求。尤其在当前新技术革命大潮奔涌、金融危机后市场环境巨变的情况下,转型浪潮正席卷全球。惠普、诺基亚、微软、海尔、苹果等一大批企业面对核心市场的巨大增长压力,都在积极谋求转型,开辟新的业务。但其中一些企业无奈地发现,自己就像风雨中的一叶扁舟,早已无法掌握自己的航向。最新的失败案例是柯达,百年企业由于转型失败,无奈走上破产之路。而另一些企业却能不断恰逢其时地踩着新业务的增长波,超越激烈竞争的成熟产业红海,成为新领域的遥遥领先者,比如苹果。     

Beyond public management

The Netherlands are often considered an excellent example of ‘new public management’ reforms. Especially the ‘Tilburg model’ of management reform that took place in Dutch local government in the mid-1980s has become internationally renowned. In this review of public management reforms that took place in Dutch local and national government during the 1980s and 1990s we will show that managerial reforms were not the only dominant story in the The Netherlands. Dutch administration experienced a shift in frame of reference beyond public management. This review will not concentrate on ‘factual reforms’ but rather on reform ideas. This study departs from the empirical positivist approach where ‘objective facts’ play the central role. There is no one and single ‘objective truth’ about reforms. Managerial reform seemed the dominant story. In ‘reality’ there was a variety of reform ideas.     

Beyond Interaction: Theories

An interaction between two factors in their effects on a dependent variable is here modelled as (first) summation of quantities derived from the two factors individually, and (second) a nonlinear relation between that sum and the dependent variable. There are only a few possible nonlinear functions that need to be considered. The dataset used as an example is a 3 × 3 table showing crossover interaction. The proposed explanation uses a quadratic curve (which has a descending limb and an ascending limb) to achieve reversal of the effect of one factor for some categories of the other factor.     

Beyond the ecological fallacy

The analysis of long-term social and political developments in Western countries is often difficult because of a lack of sufficient survey data. Almost always official election and census statistics are available over long periods, yet the use of these data for individual-level inferences runs the risk of the ‘ecological fallacy’. In this paper we propose a method to go beyond the fallacy, the Duncan-Davis technique for area-classified data. The method is discussed and used to assess the amount of religious voting among Dutch Catholics in the 1971 general election. While the technique is only moderately helpful in this case, it is expected to be far more useful for the analysis of older elections.