目标市场负向需求冲击影响企业跨国并购的机理与实证*

本文对目标市场负向需求冲击对中国企业跨国并购的影响进行了理论和实证分析。研究发现：第一,目标市场负向需求冲击与跨国并购发生的概率呈正相关关系;第二,目标企业的选择要么是生产成本最高的企业,要么是生产成本最低的企业。最后,本文依据核心结论提出政策建议。     

我国上市公司资产重组的行业分析

本文首先从工业行业运行状况的角度,定量化地研究了我国资本市场中兼并频发行业的成因。研究发现,工业行业的集中度偏低是其中最主要的原因。本文还以各个兼并频发行业内发生资产重组的上市公司为研究对象,发现我国不同的行业,资本市场中资产重组的方式有所不同。同时资本市场中行业资产的重组对于不同行业的产业结构调整有着不同的积极或消极的作用。这表明我国资本市场上的资产重组将导致我国工业各行业的竞争力呈分化状态。     

WELFARE EFFECTS OF STRATEGIC PRICE SETTING IN ANTICIPATION OF PRICE REGULATION

A single product monopolist with constant unit costs, in a simple two-period model, is aware that price regulation will be imposed in the second period. The form of the regulation is such that price in period 2 may not exceed 100 ; per cent of price in period 1, where 0 < < 1. The period 1 price will be set higher than it would be in the absence of anticipated regulation. However, it is not always the case that pre-regulation price will be raised as falls. The welfare effects are crucially dependent on the form of the demand function. Under constant elasticity of demand a reduction in will reduce both consumers' and the producer's welfare. Under linear demand, consumers benefit and the producer loses as is reduced and the resultant effect on aggregate welfare is ambiguous.     

AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF SOCIAL ACCOUNTS FOR AN ECONOMY OF THE YUGOSLAV TYPE

The system of social accounts described in this article is based on the following five principles: (1) Producers of goods and services are working organizations which represent groups of people or individuals organized for the purpose of earning a living by producing goods and services that satisfy individual or collective needs. Business, government, profit and nonprofit, corporate and unincorporated working organizations are treated in a uniform way. (2) Since the behaviors of the market and non-market sectors differ considerably, these two sectors are consistently separated throughout the accounting system. (3) There are four basic activities: (a) production, (b) consumption, (c) investment, and (d) income redistribution. These call for four separate accounts: (a) Working Organizations, (b) Households, (c) Community, including government and certain non-government institutions, and (d) Accumulation. The fifth account, Rest of the World, serves for balancing purposes. (4) The same classifications of transactions are used for activities and institutions, making possible complete matching of social product and financial flows accounts. (5) The system strives to achieve the maximum analytical flexibility. Some of its possibilities are visible from the classification of industries: A. Market (Material) Sector: 1. Agriculture, II. Forestry, III. Mining and Manufacturing, IV. Construction, V. Transportation, VI. Trade and Catering, VII. Handicrafts; B. Non-Market (Non-Material) Sector: VIII. Housing and Communal Economy, IX. Education, Culture, and Social Welfare, X. Public Services Social Organizations (Political, Religious, etc.), Finance and Insurance, Public Administration and Judiciary, National Defence. Sector A corresponds to the material definition of social product. Sectors A + B correspond to the SNA definition. Sectors A + B minus Industry × reflects the welfare definition. Further, Industries I-IV produce goods, V-VII market services, VIII and IX non-market services with welfare content, X intermediate nonmarket services, V-X all services.     

ASSESSING THE VALUE OF ECONOMICS RESEARCH: THE CASE OF THE BIAS IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

Economists provide sometimes contradictory information about economic systems that contribute to policy design. How does one value this type of knowledge? A political‐economic game is presented that allows for reinforcing and contradictory research messages. Policy makers are assumed to follow a Bayesian decision theory process and the model is tested with quantitative estimates of the value of research on the degree of bias in the Consumer Price Index. Most economists agree that a bias exists, but published estimates vary widely. A blue‐ribbon panel of economists recommended revisions to how the index is calculated, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics subsequently made revisions that differed from their original plans, but how much influence did the panel really have on the revisions? (JEL Z00)     

政治关联、并购战略选择与企业价值*

本文以2010年发生并购的上市公司为初始样本,实证检验了企业政治关联对并购当年（2010年）和并购后连续五年（2011—2015年）企业价值的影响,并进一步分析这种影响在并购企业采用不同并购战略选择时是否存在显著差异。本文研究发现,并购企业中央政治关联和地方政治关联均对并购后企业短期价值和长期价值具有显著的正向影响。进一步研究发现,从总体上看,在一定条件下,跨地并购战略在企业中央政治关联与企业价值（短期/长期）间有正向的部分中介效应,即中央政治关联企业通过跨地并购战略的实施进一步增强了对企业价值的提升作用;企业地方政治关联可以显著地促进多元化并购战略的实施,而实施多元化并购战略进一步增强了对企业价值（短期/长期）的抑制作用,即多元化并购战略在企业地方政治关联对企业价值的影响机制中发挥部分中介效应,并且对直接正效应具有抑制作用。     

A THEORY OF MAN AS A CREATOR OF THE WORLD*

The present paper proposes a theory of man, wherein man constructs models of the world based on past experiences in social situations. The present theory considers experiences, or chunks of impressions, as primitives instead of an objective game, which is assumed to be given in the standard game theory. Agents construct models of the world based on direct and indirect experiences. Each model comprises a structural part and a factual part. The structural part is represented as a game, while the factual part is represented as a strategy profile of this game. In constructing a model, an agent might use certain axioms—for example coherence, according to which the model should be able to explain his or her own experiences; conformity to a solution concept; and minimality with respect to some simplicity measure. A few applications are presented to demonstrate how this theory works.     

A VAR ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF HOUSING LOAN POLICY

Abstract.  I investigated the effect of the Government Housing Loan Corporation (GHLC) housing loan policy on housing starts in Japan, employing the VAR model for the first time in the area of Japanese housing policy. A lowering of the interest rate of GHLC home loans increased housing starts up to the point where the budget exceeded the actual amount of GHLC home loans granted. I found that the amount of GHLC home loans was effective in increasing housing starts up to the point of structural change, after which the effect was seen to lessen.     

THE EFFECTS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL QUALITY ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF EARNINGS

A number of researchers have investigated the effects of school quality on average earnings in the postschooling years. In this article we broaden the discussion to investigate whether school quality has a measurable impact at other points in the conditional earnings distribution. We find that in specifications that do not control for individual and family background characteristics there are differential effects of school resources on earnings. The most significant effects occur in the top half of the conditional earnings distribution. However, after controlling for a variety of demographic variables, much of the impact of school resources on earnings is diminished. Exceptions to this seem to be school enrollment levels and, to a lesser degree, expenditures: higher enrollments tend to raise the upper tail of the earnings distribution without a similar increase in the bottom of the distribution; the effect of expenditures is positive and significant for the 0.25 quantile and the median.     

PUBLIC VERSUS PRIVATE DELIVERY OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE SERVICES: THE CASE OF NORTH CAROLINA

This paper examines the effects of different institutional arrangements and characteristics on cost savings, efficiency gains, and productivity of delivering municipal solid waste services. A cost function approach is employed, and North Carolina municipal data for three years (1997, 2001, and 2003) are used for the analysis. Empirical findings indicate that there is no significant difference in cost savings between public delivery and private contractor delivery of solid waste services, a finding similar to those of other recent studies. There are three possible reasons for this. First, the threat of competition and contracting out might have led to cost savings in the cases of public delivery. Second, there might be a lack of competition because a few large private contractors have been able to win follow‐on contracts over the years. Third, there might be substantial transaction costs arising as the result of private contracting. (JEL H40, H83, Q53)     

THE EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME*

This study develops a microanalytic simulation model to examine the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on the distribution on the distribution of income. A representational sample of the population of the United States is linked with equations determining the variability of various types of factor income. Each family's income experience is simulated under alternative aggregate conditions, and the income distributions arising under these conditions are compared. The main results are similar for alternative specifications of the model. The incidence of a downturn in economic activity, whether accompanied by changes in the rate of inflation or not, and measured in terms of the loss of factor income, leaves the upper middle class relatively better off than before and leaves most others relatively worse off. The very rich bear the heaviest burden.     

INVESTMENT BEHAVIOUR,CORPORATE CONTROL,AND PRIVATE BENEFITS OF CONTROL: EVIDENCE FROM A SURVEY OF UKRAINIAN FIRMS

We analyse the impact of ownership and corporate control on firms’ investment using the 2001 survey of Yacoub et al. on Ukrainian firms. The model explains investment by output, financial and soft budget constraints, and corporate control (and ownership) categories potentially enjoying private benefits of control. We find that the corporate control model fits better than the ownership model, a negative relationship between state and employee control and firms’ investment, and evidence for the presence of soft budget constraints. A negative relationship between firms’ investment and the relative size of non‐monetary transactions strengthens the conclusion of private benefits of control impacting investment.     

A REVIEW OF SELECTED ASPECTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE LIGHT OF COUNTRIES’ EXPERIENCES*

A review of the United Nations System of National Accounts and its implementation by countries is presently being conducted at the United Nations Statistical Office. This article presents a personal and selective account by the author of the results of that review and its consequences for the present structure of the SNA. Information is included on the level of response by countries for the tables of the SNA national accounts questionnaire. It shows that this response is at present sparce, except for the tables on GDP by end use, cost structure and kind of economic activity. On the more detailed level the feasibility of introducing integrated sector accounts into the system has been examined and different approaches compared. Country practices suggest that one way of facilitating the introduction of such accounts would be to eliminate one essential feature of the dual classification of the SNA, i.e., the distinction between quasi-corporate and other unincorporated enterprises. Other modifications of the SNA structure implied below are the introduction on a limited scale of articulation of transactions, the inclusion of additional aggregate income and balancing items, a reallocation of data between the main accounts and the supporting tables, and a better integration of the SNA matrix with the accounts and tables of the system. A reduction of the present number of independent classifications in the SNA is suggested, based on links between categories of different classifications that are assumed in country responses to the questionnaire. A suggestion is made for a uniform valuation of goods and services and income flows, to replace the present complex valuation guidelines on approximate basic and factor values and producers’ prices.     

湖南工业结构及其工业化水平研究

湖南工业在全省产业结构中始终处于主导地位。工业结构的合理程度必然对湖南整个国民民经济产生重要的影响,而工业化水平是衡量一个国家或地区经济发展及其所处阶段的重要指标。本文运用国内外相关理论,从各个角度对湖南的工业结构和工业化水平进行比较全面的分析。     

ESTIMATING CAUSAL EFFECTS OF ALCOHOL ACCESS AND USE ON A BROAD SET OF RISKY BEHAVIORS: REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY EVIDENCE

A growing body of evidence suggests large increases in criminal behavior and mortality coinciding with a young adult's 21st birthday, when alcohol consumption becomes legal. The policy implications from these findings have focused on the need to reduce drinking among young people, potentially by enforcing stricter alcohol controls. However, mortality and arrests are relatively infrequent outcomes and relatively less is known about the intermediate and more prevalent consequences of legal access to alcohol at age 21. This paper uses the Add Health data combined with a regression discontinuity approach to examine the effects of alcohol access on sexual behavior, drunk driving, violence, and other outcomes. The results suggest relatively large effects that appear concentrated in men. The sample also allows some suggestive policy implications on whether changing the minimum drinking age may reduce these consequences. (JEL I12, I18)     

THE CYCLICAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY REGIMES*

A 1979 change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with a break in the cyclical behavior of monetary aggregates, while the cyclical behavior of all other real and nominal variables remained relatively constant. A model is developed to assess the quantitative importance of a change in monetary policy in accounting for these observations. The monetary authority's reaction function is estimated conditionally on the theoretical model and accounts for upward of 72–95% of all observed changes, including inside money preceding the business cycle and a qualitative change in the cyclical behavior of the monetary base.     

预算约束与金融制度选择的新理论:文献述评

本文的考察发现,在预算约束与金融制度结构之间存在着十分紧密的逻辑联系,而且国内外不少文献已经围绕于此展开了广泛而深入的讨论。针对预算约束与金融制度选择的关系,现有文献的理论发现大致包括三个层面:第一,虽然缓解乃至消除软预算约束是任何一种金融体系共同面临的挑战,但软预算约束的消除并非一定有利于长期经济增长;第二,分权的或者集权的金融体制都具有"内生性",因此,至少在理论上无法对其进行孰优孰劣的直观评判,同时也无法在它们之间进行简单的复制和移植;第三,金融体系应对预算约束问题的能力要远弱于企业制度,因此,当一个国家面对预算约束问题时,应当首先着手改善微观经济基础的金融需求结构,而不是调整金融供给结构。     

消费平滑、风险分担与完全保险——基于城镇家庭收支调查的实证研究

本文利用农户的面板数据评价京津风沙源治理工程的实施对当地农户收入的短期影响。分析了退耕还林强度、工程参与程度、村参与工程的时间对样本农户人均年收入的影响程度。分析结果表明:(1)工程参与对农户收入的影响为正向关系;(2)如果在村级早一年实施工程,则人均年收入提高17.37%;(3)实施退耕还林工程对消除贫困的影响尚考虑不足。本文利用农户的面板数据评价京津风沙源治理工程的实施对当地农户收入的短期影响。分析了退耕还林强度、工程参与程度、村参与工程的时间对样本农户人均年收入的影响程度。分析结果表明:(1)工程参与对农户收入的影响为正向关系;(2)如果在村级早一年实施工程,则人均年收入提高17.37%;(3)实施退耕还林工程对消除贫困的影响尚考虑不足。