最优公共支出与经济增长:理论综述

自巴罗的开创性论文发表以来,关于最优公共支出与经济增长的理论研究取得了长足发展。文章对这一领域所取得的研究成果进行了系统梳理和评述,试图勾勒出理论研究的发展脉络。以巴罗模型为核心,文章重点考察了后续文献从公共支出结构、公共资本、弹性劳动供给、拥挤性、排他性、非规模增长效应等方面对巴罗模型进行修正和扩展,并进一步概括评述了关于多级政府支出与经济增长的研究成果。最后,文章对该领域的未来研究方向进行了展望。     

内生增长中的公共支出理论综述

自凯恩斯主义的诞生之日起,以公共支出为主要手段之一的财政政策就成为相机抉择的需求管理政策不可或缺的内容,公共支出不断扩大的趋势以及政府干预经济职能不断加强更加有力地支持了公共支出对国民收入的短期决定作用,而长期内,无论是强调需求管理政策的凯恩斯主义,还是主张自由     

公共资本性支出、经常性支出与内生经济增长

本文基于一个含有两类不同产出能力的公共商品的内生增长模型,通过数理分析得出在市场经济条件下最优公共支出结构的依据是公共商品各自的产出弹性.进而采用面板数据模型对13个发达国家1972～2009年的公共支出实践进行了实证研究.实证结果表明,经常性(资本性)支出对经济增长有正(负)效应.该研究结论为平衡预算下的公共支出结构决策提供了参考依据.     

我国公共支出结构与经济增长的实证分析

在我国经济体制转轨的过程中,财政支出结构还没有脱离"生产性财政"的窠臼,财政支出结构僵化,财政支出职能的缺位和越位同时并存。文章通过实证分析表明,对于中国而言,增加政府的经常性支出有利于经济增长,增加政府的资本性支出妨碍经济增长,且我国财政支出结构还没有达到最优状况,经常性项目支出太少,资本性项目上支出太多。     

公共支出结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

采用1980～2004年的统计数据,实证分析了公共支出结构与经济增长之间的关系.研究发现:社会性支出对经济增长有一定的促进作用,但统计上并不显著;经济性支出对经济增长具有不显著负相关性;维持性支出对经济增长存在显著负相关性.据此,提出了增加社会性支出、缩减经济性支出与维持性支出的公共支出结构调整的政策建议.     

从中国实例看公共支出与经济增长的因果关系

在已有的研究基础上，考察中国的这一问题，其中使用一些新的检验手段。经验结果显示中国的公共支出和经济增长之间不存在协整关系和因果关系，政府公共支出既不是国民经济内生决定的，也不对国民经济起到引导作用。在中国，强势政府公共支出的结构不合理现象可能主要是上述原因。     

上海公共支出与经济增长研究

一、上海公共财政支出结构与经济增长模型估计 财政支出对经济增长的作用是显著的，特别是当经济处于低迷状态时，政府增加和扩大财政支出不但维持和促进了经济增长，而且对稳定社会秩序、增强投资者信心、刺激民间投资等方面发挥的作用更为明显。同时，随着经济增长，财政支出也随之增长。因此，     

公共支出结构与经济增长的关联性研究——以山东省为例

运用山东省1979—2008年的时间序列数据,通过VAR模型对公共支出结构与经济增长之间的关联性进行了研究。结果显示,山东省的经济增长与公共支出结构之间存在稳定的协整关系,其中经济建设性支出与社会科教文卫支出有力地拉动了经济增长,而维持性支出对经济增长存在负面影响。     

公共支出与区域经济协调发展:理论综述与研究动态

公共支出对区域经济协调发展的影响是公共经济学与区域经济学相交叉的研究领域,国内外学术界对这一交叉问题的直接研究不多,相关领域文献主要集中在:一是公共支出对经济增长的影响研究;二是公共支出对社会公平的影响研究;三是区域经济协调发展理论研究。论文综述了已有的相关研究进展,并提出了这一领域研究新视点。     

我国公共支出结构经济增长效应的实证研究

笔者基于1978年～2010年的时间序列数据,运用VAR模型和VEC模型等计量分析工具实证研究我国公共支出结构的经济增长效应.研究结果表明,公共投资性支出短期内有利于经济增长,长期对经济增长产生负效应;政府行政支出短期内有利于经济增长,长期会抑制经济增长;文教科卫支出具有可持续的经济增长效应;财政转移性支出长期看能对经济增长产生正效应,但贡献率较低.因此,有必要优化公共投资性支出结构,提高政府行政支出效率,加大文教科卫支出和财政转移性支出的投入力度,促进经济良性增长.     

Government spending and economic growth in the OECD countries

Using panel data from 1995 to 2011 for 34 OECD countries, we examine the effects of government consumption spending, public social spending, and public investment on economic growth. We use a generalized method of moments estimation technique to solve inconsistency problems with fixed effects and random effects panel estimation. We find that an increase in public social spending has a significant negative effect on subsequent economic growth. Government consumption spending and public investment have no significant effect on subsequent economic growth.     

Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis

This article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in China over the period 1953 to 2010. Using two-state Markov-switching specifications, the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent. Specifically, the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower growth–higher variance state, while positively within a faster growth–lower variance one. It is also demonstrated that military spending changes contain information about the growth transition probabilities. As a policy tool, the results indicate that increases in military spending can be detrimental to growth during slower growth–higher growth volatility periods.     

Short- and long-term relation between economic development and government spending: the role of quality of institutions

ABSTRACT

This paper tests the Wagner’s assumption of the one-sided directional flow moving from economic growth to public spending considering an international database over the 1996–2012 period. By using indicators on the level of country control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability, rule of law, regulatory quality and voice and accountability, the paper analyses the economic performance-public spending nexus controlling for the quality of the institutions. The empirical evidence supports the existence of the Wagner’s law, showing that, in the short-run, public spending positively reacts to a positive shock in national income, with a lower magnitude for democratic countries. In the long run, the error-correction model shows the convergence between public spending and national output occurring less quickly for non-democratic, low-income and to a smaller extent for non-OECD countries. Institutional quality, such as effort in controlling corruption and the presence of regulations that permit and promote private sector development, may help reducing the amount of per capita public spending and making it more productive. Higher expenses in compositional amenities such as public services for the elderly may explain why public spending per capita will increase the most in economies with a higher share of the population that need healthcare facilities.     

Government size,composition of public spending and economic growth in Brazil

The performance of the fiscal policy is largely affected by the relationship between government size, composition of public spending and economic growth. We use a theoretical framework to find optimal relations among these variables and confront them with a panel data for the Brazilian states. Private capital and government spending are substitute inputs in production as the Brazilian states require provision of public spending to fill gaps in the underdeveloped private sector. Public investment and current government expenditures are combined in fixed ratios in the overall government spending due to strong rigidity of the public budget. The optimal share of public investment is considerably lower than current expenditures, as occurs in developing countries characterized by low economic dynamism. Finally, the average tax burden from the data is below the estimated optimal level, meaning that there is space for increasing tax rate without harming economic growth for some Brazilian states.     

金融舆情理论国内外研究综述

通过"中国知网"数据库检索发现,截至2014年4月25日,篇名中包含"舆情"的各类文献有5 352篇,其中期刊文献有3 728篇;但是,包含"金融舆情"的各类文献仅有5篇。金融舆情研究的相关理论基础不仅限于舆情或金融舆情领域,与金融舆情研究主题相关的现有研究可以分为三类:第一类是舆情与舆情演化理论研究;第二类是金融舆情相关理论研究;第三类是社会舆论及其对投资市场的影响。     

On the heterogeneous impact of public capital and current spending on growth across nations

This paper captures the heterogeneous impact on growth, of public capital and current spending, for 15 developing countries. Using the GMM system panel estimator, we show that countries with substantial public capital (current) spending have strong negative (positive) growth effects.     

Institutional quality and public spending in Europe: A quantile regression approach

We appraise the effects of institutional quality on public spending for a set of 27 European countries and 18 Euro-area economies over the 1996–2017 period. While institutions play a weak role in affecting spending once the fixed-effects model is employed, the application of the quantile regression indicates that improved institutional quality mitigates public spending, although the effects crucially depend on the distribution of public expenditure and the sample examined. For both the Euro-area sample and the full sample, we show that better quality of institutions reduces public spending, although the effects become less significant the higher the levels of public spending. Further, for the Euro-area sample, institutions appear to have a stronger role in mitigating public spending. Several robustness tests confirm our findings.     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.     

Relevance of corruption on the effect of public health expenditure and taxation on economic growth

We investigate whether corruption distorts the positive effect of public health expenditure and taxation on growth through panel data analysis of 75 developing countries for the period from 1995 to 2014. The findings indicate that, although both public health expenditure and taxation can increase economic growth, in countries with more corrupt governments this effect is reduced.     

The effectiveness of fiscal spending in Croatia,Slovenia and Serbia: the role of trade openness and public debt level

Various structural characteristics of economies, directly or indirectly, affect the transmission from government stimuli to economic activity and determine the size of fiscal multipliers. In this article, we expand the standard Blanchard–Perotti fiscal SVAR model by incorporating the public debt and trade openness variables to assess the influence of these structural determinants on the effectiveness of fiscal spending in three selected former Yugoslav countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia. The results confirmed the main hypotheses, which state that public debt level and trade openness significantly affect the effectiveness of fiscal spending through the means of reduction in size of fiscal effects in all countries analysed. When comparing internationally, this reduction tends to be more evident in countries with a higher degree of average public debt level and trade openness.