人民币升值的逆传递效应： 基于供给冲击和需求冲击的分析

基于供给冲击与需求冲击的研究视角,本文阐述了人民币升值的逆传递效应的传导机制。运用协整与向量误差修正模型,实证检验了人民币名义有效汇率与人民币对美元的双边名义汇率的逆传递效应。结果表明,无论在长期还是在短期,人民币升值都不具有通货紧缩效应,而是具有逆传递效应,并且名义有效汇率的逆传递效应强于双边名义汇率。     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CHILD CARE DEMAND IN SWITZERLAND

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper analyzes the demand of Swiss families for child care facilities. A choice experiment is used to study the effects of the facilities' characteristics as well as socio-economic factors on the selected child care mode. The experimental data are analyzed using a discrete choice model with multinomial logit specification. The results suggest that the demand for extra-familial day care could be considerably higher than that observed from the actual choices constrained by insufficient provision of affordable day care. The price, access, and the quality of service as well as parents' income and education have important impacts on the choice of the mode of care.     

间接税对供需失衡的影响分析

从20世纪90年代后期开始到现在,我国同时出现了两个重要的经济现象,一是间接税高速增长,二是宏观经济供需失衡。本文通过建立一般均衡模型和实证分析,研究了这两种经济现象的内在联系,本文的结论是,征收生产型增值税同时抑制投资和消费,整体上对供需失衡的影响不显著;营业税由于税收容易转嫁、存在双重征税的原因,其增长严重强化了供需失衡局面;以消费为税基的税种全部是间接税,消费平均税率的提高强化了供需失衡局面。     

THE INFLATION AND SUPPLY SIDE CONSEQUENCES OF DEMAND SIDE SHOCKS*

This paper outlines a small general equilibrium model derived under the assumptions of imperfect competition and non-constant returns to scale Cobb-Douglas technology. The model is used to simulate the short-run supply side effects of a demand shock. The simulation results reveal that demand shocks lower prices and result in positive supply side effects, which in turn strengthen the positive demand side effects on unemployment.     

公共征信机构建立的供求契机及境外实践

征信机构是重要的金融基础设施。结合若干经济现象与经济理论,本文研究表明,对于原生的建立机制而言,后工业化背景下的政府干预是一国建立公共征信机构的供给因素;金融体系的银行主导型特征为需求因素;而爆发重大经济、金融问题则是建立公共征信机构的触发点。公共征信机构是否与私营征信机构并存则主要取决于二者在市场定位、功能定位上的差异程度。当前中国坚持公共征信机构为主导的征信模式有其经济上的必然性、合理性。     

SOCIAL INTERACTIONS AND THE DEMAND FOR SPORT: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

This paper explores the decision to participate in sports activities in the United Kingdom and the subsequent frequency of participation. The paper draws links between economic and other theories of social interaction to motivate the discussion and links these theories to assessing policy initiatives in the United Kingdom. Cluster analysis is combined with a Heckman analysis to examine the empirical evidence provided by the General Household Survey in 2002. The results suggest that social and personal capital are of paramount importance in determining sports participation, and consequently, it is these features that policy should focus upon. However, the legitimacy of policy activism requires philosophical justification. ( JEL B41, C2, D11, D12)     

国际供应链金融三种典型模式分析

供应链金融是一种旨在降低供应链融资成本以及解决供应链节点资金短缺问题的金融创新。本文分析了以美国联合包裹服务公司（UPS）为代表的物流企业主导模式,以通用电气信用公司（GECC）为代表的企业集团合作模式,以渣打银行（SCB）为代表的商业银行服务模式;其次从融资主导、运作优势、信息掌控、适用对象以及法律环境等方面对这三种模式进行了比较分析;最后提出了对我国更好地开展供应链金融业务的若干启示。     

AN ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF THE DEMAND FOR TOURISM: THE CASE OF SWITZERLAND

Abstract.  An understanding of the nature of demand is critical for the formulation of a tourism development program. It is also important for developed countries where tourism is an important source of export. Thus, the aim of this paper is two-fold. First, it attempts to estimate an equation of the demand for tourism in order to analyse the different variables that influence the number of nights spent in a given destination. Second, by breaking up the total number of nights according to country of origin, it studies the reaction of tourists to given economic variables according to their origin.     

鄱阳湖生态经济区滨湖地区农村贫困特征及扶贫资金需求供给分析

在对鄱阳湖生态经济区滨湖地区的25个县(市、区)农村贫困人口规模、空间分布、贫困类型和主要致贫因素分析的基础上,估算滨湖地带农村贫困人口脱贫资金需求为2.05亿元,帮助贫困人口解决行路难、用电难、饮水难、改厕和环境整治的5个基础需求以及农户劳动力培训需求的资金需求量是7.3亿元,综合农户层面和社区层面两个层面的资金需求,合计资金需求量为9.35亿元;就资金政府分担机制进行了计算,提出政府出资8.415亿元的5年资金供给方案。     

人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响

本文描述了我国劳动力供给的总体数量以及变化趋势,并从劳动参与率、城乡结构、人力资本三方面进行考察,探讨人口老龄化对于劳动力供给的影响。我国劳动参与率还存在较大增长空间,将会是未来劳动力供给的重要增长点;农村剩余劳动力存量仍看似充足,但其老龄化情况较严重,难以维持当前农民工向城市转移的速度;另外我国年轻劳动力的教育程度和人力资本已有显著提升。因此虽然人口老龄化已经对我国劳动力供给产生了一定负面影响,但由于人口和劳动力的变化是一个长期过程,并不会给经济发展带来突发的、灾难性的冲击。     

需求变化的乘数效应分析

乘数分析法是研究生产部门之间、生产与使用、供给与消耗之间关系的重要方法。在阐述乘数概念的基础上，给出部门乘数、就业乘数、收入乘数、能源消耗乘数和水资源消耗乘数的计算公式，然后以黑河流域中游的张掖地区为例进行了研究。