商业银行经营中的流动性、流动性风险及其管理

一、流动性、流动性风险与银行挤兑 商业银行的流动性是指银行能够随时满足存款者的提现需求和借款者的正当贷款需求的能力.流动性是银行的生命线,也是整个金融体系及至整个经济体系对流动性需求的保证.盈利性和流动性是银行风险管理首先要解决的一对矛盾.如果银行持有大量的高流动性资产,当然可以减少流动性风险,但是同时也降低了银行的收益.     

真实盈余管理与审计师认知

本文以2008-2013年A股上市公司为对象,考察审计师对真实盈余管理的认知。具体探讨:审计师能否识别真实盈余管理;审计师对真实盈余管理客户的辞聘或保留决策选择;以及审计师应对真实盈余管理带来风险的策略等三个问题。研究表明,审计师能够识别真实盈余管理,并将真实盈余管理作为风险因素在审计定价决策中加以考虑;会计师事务所对真实盈余管理带来的风险现阶段整体可控,事务所倾向于采取客户保留决策;事务所主要通过审计师付出额外的努力和更换审计团队两种策略来降低审计风险。本文的研究结果为理解审计师对真实盈余管理的认知提供了直接的经验证据,对于从审计角度强化真实盈余管理的监管提供了政策参考依据。     

Real Earnings Management in Sales

We surveyed 1,638 sales executives across 40 countries regarding their companies’ likelihood of asking sales to perform real earnings management (REM) actions when earnings pressure exists. Using this information, which we refer to as companies’ REM propensities, we study how company characteristics and environmental conditions relate to the responses received. The use of cash‐flow incentives for sales personnel and the distribution of interfunctional power in favor of finance rather than sales are both associated with companies’ REM propensities. In addition, we show that sales executives preemptively change their behaviors in anticipation of top management's REM requests. Sales executives working for public companies and companies in the United States reported higher levels of REM propensity. The data also support an association between REM propensity and finance–sales conflict. These findings and others are compared and contrasted with existing empirical and survey‐based research on REM throughout the paper.     

盈余管理、信息风险与审计意见

盈余管理和信息风险是影响审计意见的两个重要因素。已有研究主要关注当期盈余管理与审计意见的关系,少有关注信息风险对审计意见的影响。本文运用我国上市公司的数据,同时研究盈余管理和信息风险对审计意见的影响。检验结果表明,公司的信息风险与审计师出具非标意见概率显著正相关,而当期盈余管理与审计师出具非标意见的概率无显著相关性。这表明,审计师出具审计意见时主要考虑信息风险,而没有证据表明审计师出具审计意见时考虑了盈余管理。本文的研究结论深化了已有审计意见和审计质量决定因素方面的研究。     

Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Arbitrage Capital

We develop a continuous‐time model of liquidity provision in which hedgers can trade multiple risky assets with arbitrageurs. Arbitrageurs have constant relative risk‐aversion (CRRA) utility, while hedgers' asset demand is independent of wealth. An increase in hedgers' risk aversion can make arbitrageurs endogenously more risk‐averse. Because arbitrageurs generate endogenous risk, an increase in their wealth or a reduction in their CRRA coefficient can raise risk premia despite Sharpe ratios declining. Arbitrageur wealth is a priced risk factor because assets held by arbitrageurs offer high expected returns but suffer the most when wealth drops. Aggregate illiquidity, which declines in wealth, captures that factor.     

交易操纵型盈余管理的经验证据

盈余可以分解为应计部分和现金流量部分.相应地,除了利用无直接现金流量影响的应计部分会计操纵型盈余管理之外,上市公司还可以操纵交易而影响盈余中现金流量部分,但当前国内的大部分研究都集中在会计操纵型盈余管理上.基于中国2000-2006年的A股上市公司样本,本文发现为了避免年度亏损,上市公司通过操纵销售额、斟酌性费用支出和过量生产等真实交易活动,从事现金部分的交易操纵型盈余管理的具体经验证据.     

Earnings Predictability, Information Asymmetry, and Market Liquidity

We investigate the relation between earnings predictability, information asymmetry and the behavior of the adverse selection cost component of the bid-ask spread around quarterly earnings announcements for NASDAQ firms. While we find an increase in the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread on the day of and the day prior to quarterly earnings announcements for firms with less predictable earnings, we find no evidence of such changes for firms with more predictable earnings. During a non-announcement period, we find that firms with relatively less predictable earnings have consistently higher total bid-ask spreads than firms with more predictable earnings. This finding suggests that firms with relatively less predictable earnings have a higher cost of equity capital than comparable firms with more predictable earning streams, ceteris paribus. Hence, earnings predictability may be a legitimate concern of managers who wish to minimize their cost of equity capital at least as it pertains to bid-ask spreads.     

盈余管理方式与审计师风险感知研究

以2009~2013年沪深两市 A 股上市公司为样本,研究应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理对审计师风险感知的影响,研究结论表明,审计师既能感知到应计盈余管理行为带来的风险,同时还能感知到真实盈余管理行为的风险,并会从审计意见类型和审计费用两个方面采取风险应对措施。相较于有限责任制会计师事务所,特殊普通合伙制会计师事务所的审计师对盈余管理行为的风险感知更敏感。     

股权质押、盈余管理与审计师风险应对

基于2007—2018年我国A股1109家上市公司的数据,研究大股东股权质押、真实盈余管理与审计师风险应对之间的关系,探究真实盈余管理程度是否增强了大股东股权质押与审计师风险应对的正向关系。研究发现:大股东股权质押正向影响了审计费用和审计意见;真实盈余管理程度加剧了大股东股权质押后的负面效果,进而加强了大股东股权质押与审计费用间的正向关系,但对审计意见的影响不显著;进一步的研究发现:上期的审计费用反向助长了当期的股权质押率;存在大股东股权质押的上市公司,审计师出具非标准审计意见的概率会随审计费用的提高而加大。该结论扩展了审计师风险应对的研究范围及影响大股东股权质押的其他因素,对提高审计师风险应对及完善大股东股权质押政策具有一定的参考价值。     

The Dynamics of Earnings Forecast Management

This paper examines whether firms manage analyst forecasts andthe associated value consequences. We find that earnings forecaststend to grow pessimistic over the forecast horizon and theseforecast changes and their timing are key determinants of whetherfirms generate positive earnings surprises: Late forecasts thatraise (lower) the consensus sharply reduce (raise) the probabilityof positive surprises. This findng is the opposite of that predictedif consensus revisions reflected new information arrival. Investorsseem to be "misled": downward consensus revisions lead to largeabnormal returns following the earnings announcement. Paradoxically,downward forecast management reduces post-announcement shareprice, as the impact of reduced forecasts dominates the gainfrom generating positive surprises.     

内部控制、审计师行业专长、应计与真实盈余管理

本文以2008至2009年中国A股上市公司为研究对象,研究内部控制和审计师行业专长对应计和真实盈余管理的治理作用,并进一步探讨内部控制和审计师行业专长对应计和真实盈余管理的治理是以替代方式还是以互补方式来发挥作用。研究发现:首先,高质量的内部控制有助于抑制公司的应计盈余管理行为,但对真实盈余管理的抑制作用较小。事务所的行业专长能同时抑制公司的应计和真实盈余管理行为。其次,内部控制与审计师行业专长在抑制公司的盈余管理方面存在互补关系,而不是替代关系,即公司的内部控制越好,越有助于发挥审计师行业专长对应计和真实盈余管理的治理作用。     

Cross‐Firm Real Earnings Management

Our analysis is rooted in the notion that stockholders can learn about the fundamental value of any firm from observing the earnings reports of its rivals. We argue that such intraindustry information transfers, which have been broadly documented in the empirical literature, may motivate managers to alter stockholders’ beliefs about the value of their firm not only by manipulating their own earnings report but also by influencing the earnings reports of rival firms. Managers obviously do not have access to the accounting system of peer firms, but they can nevertheless influence the earnings reports of rival firms by distorting real transactions that relate to the product market competition. We demonstrate such managerial behavior, which we refer to as cross‐firm real earnings management, and explore its potential consequences and interrelation with the practice of accounting‐based earnings management within an industry setting with imperfect (nonproprietary) accounting information.     

债券违约聚集、风险传染与企业流动性管理

本文采用双重差分方法,研究中国发债上市公司在流动性冲击下的企业现金持有、流动性工具选择以及传导机制。研究表明:流动性冲击下,债务依赖度高的企业会增持现金进行流动性管理而非利用银行授信;国企和公司治理能力强的企业在面临流动性冲击时会增持现金;企业在面临流动性管理时会考虑自身抵押贷款能力而非破产风险。企业在流动性困境中应增强对现金流的管理,提升资产抵押和公司治理能力;商业银行应实行抵押资产多元化,充分发挥银行授信作用。     

商业银行流动性风险管理

美国次贷危机的爆发使之前宽松的资金环境突然间收紧,流动性风险迅速显现.一时间,流动性风险迅速成为了各家商业银行、其他金融机构和中央银行所面临的难题.     

机会主义盈余管理、投资者情绪与股价崩盘风险

股价崩盘风险受到哪些因素影响一直是学者和资本市场关注的热点问题之一,本文考察了机会主义盈余管理行为如何影响股价崩盘风险。本文选取2007-2016年中国上市公司数据进行研究,结果发现:上市公司的盈余管理程度与股价崩盘风险呈显著正相关关系;相对于非机会主义,机会主义的盈余管理对股价崩盘风险的影响更大;无论是盈余管理程度、还是机会主义盈余管理行为,对股价崩盘风险的影响都随着投资者情绪高涨而加大。本文拓展了盈余管理与股价崩盘风险之间关系的研究,有助于投资者全面理解机会主义盈余管理对股价崩盘风险的影响。     

应计与真实盈余管理：替代抑或互补

基于中国转型经济特有的制度环境,考察应计与真实盈余管理之间的相互关系。结果表明,在中国市场上,应计与真实盈余管理之间存在"二元"关系,即替代关系和互补关系。具体而言,市场竞争压力在应计与真实盈余管理之间具有明显的成本比较优势,使得两者具有替代关系。控制利益、管制压力在应计与真实盈余管理之间不具有显著的成本比较优势,而是应计与真实盈余管理的驱动因素,使得两者具有互补关系。     

中小银行流动性风险管理

随着全球性金融危机爆发,国内房地产市场由热转冷,各地政府纷纷出手救市,央行货币政策似有放松之意,中小银行上半年流动性趋紧现象有所缓解,但流动性风险管理难度加大问题任然存在.流动性风险特有的突发性,更象令人胆寒的心肌梗塞,瞬间造成心脏供血机能丧失,假若自身融资能力低下、外部救助又迟缓或不力,极易导致中小银行"猝死",甚至演变成全局性的金融动荡.     

Insider Ownership,Risk, and Leverage in REITs

We investigate the relative importance of managerial entrenchment and incentive alignment as indicated by REIT risk-taking. The two theories make contradictory predictions about the sign of the relation between insider ownership and risk. We test for the possibility of diminishing entrenchment returns to insider ownership. Empirical results for equity and asset betas soundly reject linear models in favor of nonmonotonic relations with reversals at insider ownership of 36%. Up to that point, increasingly entrenched insiders mitigate their own risk aversion. Above 36%, incentive alignment emerges as managers become more substantial owners. Leverage declines at an accelerating rate above 20% insider ownership. Together these results suggest a shift in the composition of risk, from leverage risk to asset risk, reflecting comparative advantage and a crossover in the relative monitoring costs of debt and equity. Problematically for linear models, the coefficient of insider ownership is not significant for most risk measures, producing the misleading appearance of no relation between insider ownership and risk. Institutional ownership is significantly negatively related to leverage. Thus incentives are aligned between insiders and institutional owners at insider ownership above 20%.     

流动性风险的稳健管理与监管准则

为了反映全球金融市场的最新发展,总结2007年金融市场动荡的经验教训,巴塞尔银行监管委员会对其2000年发布的《银行机构流动性管理的稳健操作》进行了重大调整。调整后的报告认为有效的流动性风险管理至关重要,有助于银行始终拥有满足现金流需要的能力,减少对金融系统所产生的负面影响;而金融市场在过去十年间的发展加剧了流动性风险及其管理的复杂性,国际清算银行在此基础上从流动性风险的治理、计量和管理,银行信息的公开披露、监管者的职责等几个方面提出了十七条流动性风险管理和监管的准则。     

流动性风险管理新规及其挑战

正国际流动性风险管理新规出台背景近年来,巴塞尔银行监管委员会在总结国际金融危机应对经验教训的基础上,为持续提高全球银行业流动性风险管理水平,确保银行体系流动性充足和安全稳健运行、组织成员国和地区监管当局共同研