Differences in returns to cross-border M&A in the short and long run: Evidence from Chinese listed firms

Using the cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) events of Chinese listed firms between 2009 and 2018, this paper studies the impact of cross-border M&A on the short- and long-term performance of firms through the event study method and the propensity score matching–difference-in-differences regression method. The results indicate that in the short run, Chinese firm cross-border M&A acquire significant, positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) within a 21-day event window. In the long run, cross-border M&A fail to improve firm returns on assets (ROA). Furthermore, the paper uncovers that the impact of M&A on ROA varies with the characteristics of acquirers and host countries, and the impact on CAR varies with the characteristics of deals and are not sensitive to characteristics of acquirers or host countries. The paper identifies the differing impacts of China’s “going out” strategy on firm performance in the short and long run and provides explanations for a deeper understanding of the cross-border M&A of Chinese listed firms.     

IPO relative difficulty,M&A option and size effect

Size effect in the Chinese stock market is huge from 2012 to 2017. We empirically identify a driving force behind the effect: M&A option caused by IPO and M&A policies changes. We show that the M&A frequency increases and the acquirers' market value deceases as the IPO relative difficulty rises, small firm premium is positively related to both IPO relative difficulty and M&A frequency, and among the listed firms that have stronger tendency to merge or acquire a private firm, size effect is significantly larger. These results hold when controlling reverse merger probability. In sum, we reveal a new mechanism: Compared with a large public firm, a small one is more likely to acquire a private firm with discount since both the acquired and the acquirer benefit more, so the stock price of a small firm contains a larger part of M&A option. This option value increases as IPO relative difficulty rises.     

Tariff cost and cross-border M&A affiliate sales: Evidence from China

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is a major form of foreign direct investment (FDI). In contrast to many developed countries, the majority of China’s cross-border M&As are vertical rather than horizontal. I study the difference in the reaction to tariff of horizontal and vertical M&A subsidiary sales. The baseline OLS regressions show that as export tariff cost increases, cross-border M&A affiliate sales relative to export rises, and the effect mainly comes from vertical affiliates, especially in downstream subsidiaries. The main results are robust to the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regressions and an instrumental variable (IV) approach. A simple model is developed to reconcile the empirical findings when horizontal and vertical M&As co-exist in the same market and further tested at both the extensive and intensive margins. The results offer new insights to understanding the performance of M&As from developing economies.     

中国企业“逆周期”跨国并购研究

"新常态"经济周期中,中国企业跨国并购有何特征?从经济政策频繁波动的现实出发,如何理解跨国并购的"逆周期"成因?文章基于2001-2016年中国企业对91个国家的跨国并购数据,实证检验了经济周期、经济政策不确定性对跨国并购的影响,得出以下结论：首先,中国企业的跨国并购具有显著的"逆周期"特征,下行经济周期加剧了并购规模提升;其次,经济政策不确定性与跨国并购正相关,并且在国有企业中和2008年金融危机后表现为更明显;最后,经济政策不确定性差距以及市场增长潜力差距均提升了并购规模。     

Can China harness globalization to reap domestic carbon savings? Modeling international technology diffusion in a multi-region framework

This paper is devoted to examine the effect of globalization, particularly the international technology diffusion (ITD), on China's domestic carbon savings. Building on a multi-region global modeling framework, we explicitly consider both indigenous R&D and foreign technology diffusion as the dual drivers of endogenous technical change (ETC) for domestic carbon savings. Simulation results show that 1) traditional economic globalization policies like trade and FDI liberalization can boost the growth of production output, but this is at the cost of more fossil energy uses and carbon emissions; 2) technology globalization policies like removals of technology transfer barriers can facilitate the inflows of foreign technologies for domestic carbon savings; and 3) domestic emission control policies have an effect to induce restructuring and reorganization of production technology into a knowledge-intensive one and thus help lower climate compliance costs. Consequently, to create China's domestic carbon savings from globalization, policy should focus on promoting cross-country technology diffusion, beyond traditional cross-border transactions of product and capital goods. Domestic emission-based climate regulation should also be implemented to create market demand for carbon-efficient technologies and thus induce inflows of foreign advanced technologies.     

Chinese cross-border M&As in the “One Belt One Road” countries: The impact of Confucius Institutes

As the “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative enters a new stage of substantive construction, Chinese cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are significantly increasing in the OBOR areas. Acknowledging this trend and drawing on institutional theory, this study investigates the impact of the Confucius Institute on China's cross-border M&As in the OBOR countries. It also examines how this impact is moderated by Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) and by comparable superior economic development and political-institution quality between home and host countries. The findings suggest that Confucius Institutes have a positive effect on the completion of M&As in OBOR countries. The effect is greater if a host country has BITs signed with China or if it has better economic development than China. This implies that, to facilitate Chinese firms' investments in OBOR areas, China should actively participate in cultural exchange activities and the establishment of Confucius Institutes should focus on those countries that have BITs with China, or which have better economic development.     

Interdependence between Overseas and Domestic R&D Activities: Evidence from Taiwanese Multinationals

The purpose of the present paper is to examine the interdependence between the overseas and domestic R&D activities of Taiwanese multinational enterprises (MNEs). Because domestic (overseas) R&D activities may enter the overseas (domestic) R&D determination equation as an endogenous right‐hand side variable, the traditional estimation approach will be invalid due to the endogeneity problem. Therefore, it is proposed that the two R&D decisions be estimated using a simultaneous Tobit model. The results in this paper indicate that Taiwanese MNEs that engage in higher levels of domestic R&D activities will engage in overseas R&D activities. Interestingly, it is also found that Taiwanese MNEs increase their overseas R&D activities in developed countries instead of their domestic R&D activities, whereas Taiwanese MNEs that engage in overseas R&D activities in less‐developed countries will raise their domestic R&D activities. As for the other common determinants of the overseas and domestic R&D activities, firm size and the capital–labor ratio are found to be the main factors.     

Innovation, international R&D spillovers and the sectoral heterogeneity of knowledge flows

We analyze the relative effects of national and international, intrasectoral and intersectoral R&D spillovers on innovative activity in six large, industrialized countries over the period 1980–2000. We use patent applications at the European Patent Office to measure innovation and their citations to trace knowledge flows within and across 135 narrowly defined technological fields. Using panel cointegration we show that intersectoral spillovers have a key impact on innovation activities and that domestic R&D has a stronger effect than international R&D. However, within technological fields, estimated international R&D spillovers are 2.4 times the national R&D effects. We find significant differences across chemicals, electronics and machinery industries.     

Impact of Terrorism on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As): Prevalence,Frequency and Intensity

This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of terrorism on international business by focusing on the specific case of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) using bilateral data for 59 countries over the period 2000–2011. We are interested in the following set of questions: (a) the impact of source and host country terrorism on bilateral M&A flows using various measures of terrorism (i.e. prevalence, frequency and intensity); (b) whether terrorism affects developing countries differently; (c) whether good institutions in developing host countries can offset the negative effects of terrorism; and (d) whether terrorism incidents in a particular economy has negative spillovers to its neighbors. To preview the main conclusions, we find that an augmented gravity model fits the data well. While the occurrence of terrorism in either the host or source does not appear to have any impact on bilateral M&A, the frequency and intensity of terrorist attacks significantly deter M&A flows, especially in the latter. We also find that good institutions negate the impact of terrorist attacks in the developing host country. There is also some evidence that regional spillovers reduce M&As in the host country.     

Do R&D tax incentives work? Firm-level evidence from China

Tax incentives have been used worldwide to encourage firm R&D, but there is little evidence on their effectiveness as a policy tool in developing countries. We use a panel dataset of Chinese listed companies covering 2007 to 2013 to assess the effects of tax incentives on firm R&D expenditures and analyze how institutional conditions shape these effects. Our results show that tax incentives motivate R&D expenditures for our sample firms. A 10% reduction in R&D user costs leads firms to increase R&D expenditures by 3.97% in the short run. We also find considerable effect heterogeneity: Tax incentives significantly stimulate R&D in private firms but have little influence on state-owned enterprises' R&D expenditures. Moreover, the effects of tax incentives are more pronounced for private firms without political connections. Hence, reducing political intervention complements tax incentives' capacity to foster firm R&D in developing countries.     

Going out to innovate more at home: Impacts of outward direct investments on Chinese firms' domestic innovation performance

This study explores the effects of cross-border mergers & acquisitions (CBMA) on domestic innovation of Chinese firms. We build a new panel dataset that matches information on CBMA and innovation activities for China's publicly listed firms. We rely on matching techniques combined with a difference-in-differences estimator to study the causal effects of CBMA respectively on firms' investments in innovation, innovation outputs, and financial performance. The main findings reveal that CBMA has both a positive impact on firms' R&D spending and number of patent applications, no statistically significant effect on the number of granted patents or on the quality of those patents, and a negative effect on firms' financial performance. These results depend, however, on the type of CBMA (horizontal or vertical), destination country (OECD or non-OECD), and the technological intensity (high-tech or not) of the acquirer and target firm. Overall, the findings bring into question whether CBMAs, and China's going-out strategy, will significantly boost its indigenous innovation capabilities.     

R&D and patenting activities of foreign firms in China: The case of Japan

This study investigates the research and development (R&D) and patenting activities of foreign firms in China. Utilizing a panel dataset of Japanese affiliates during the period 2001–2007, we first examine the determinants of R&D activity and find that local market-oriented firms place more emphasis on R&D, whereas process export-oriented firms are less likely to conduct R&D. Affiliates within a large business group that has more affiliates have a higher propensity to undertake R&D. Using only firms with positive R&D expenditures, we next estimate the patent production function. Results indicate that the patent elasticity of R&D for Japanese affiliates is high, suggesting that they are more productive on patent production than other firms. Moreover, local market-oriented firms do need more patents to protect their products, whereas scientific firms demonstrate a lower willingness to register patents in China.     

R&;D and Exporting: A Comparison of British and Irish Firms

This paper investigates the two-way relationship between R&D and export activity. In particular, we concern ourselves with the question whether R&D stimulates exports and, perhaps more importantly, whether export activity leads to increasing innovative activity in terms of R&D (learning-by-exporting). We use two unique firm level databases for Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland and compare the results for these two countries. We find that previous exporting experience enhances the innovative capability of Irish firms. Conversely, no strong learning-by-exporting effects are found for British firms. Arguably part of the differences between Ireland and Britain are attributable to different, cross-country exporting patterns where Irish firms have a greater interface with OECD markets. JEL no.  F14, F23     

R&D Subsidies and Foreign Direct Investment

We devise a model in which domestic firms do applied R&D, which can be subsidized by the government, and foreign firms with superior technology can enter in the domestic market. Foreign Direct Investment can act as a substitute of subsidies to improve domestic R&D, the share of domestic leading firms and consumption. Relatively closed economies may benefit from R&D subsidization while relatively open economies may not. For relatively low growth of the technological frontier, it is optimal to subsidize R&D and close the economy to foreign investment but the opposite happens for relatively high growth. Numerical simulations show the economy dynamics after policy experiments.     

Technology policies,technology transfer by multinational enterprises and R&D activities in LDCs

A simple game theoretic model is developed to study the interaction between the multinational enterprise's (MNE's) technology transfer and the domestic firm's R&D intensity in an LDC. The implications of two technology policies are studied. Two results are derived under certain plausible conditions. First, the subsidy on the MNE's technology transfer may decrease the domestic firm's R&D. Second, the subsidy on the domestic firm's R&D may decrease the technology level transferred by the MNE to the host country. Welfare implications on domestic consumers and producers are also derived.     

Local political corruption and M&As

We examine the relation between local political corruption and firms' cross-province M&As using provincial-level data on corruption in China. The results show that firms in more corrupt regions are less likely to engage in cross-province M&As. Further analyses reveal that the effects of local corruption on the probability of cross-province M&As are stronger when corrupt officers have greater impeding benefits or lower impeding costs. Meanwhile, Both ex-ante intervention and ex-post punishment are important channels through which corrupt officers hinder firms' cross-province M&As. Moreover, informal institutions, such as social capital and informal networks can help to alleviate the negative impact of political corruption on firms' cross-province M&As.Our findings show that in the context of highly government intervention, cross-province M&As not only cannot be an effective channel to shield from expropriation, but are themselves highly distorted and lead to significant economic efficiency losses.     

Investigating the linkages between industrial policies and M&A dynamics: Evidence from China

Mergers and acquisitions (M&As hereafter) have been widely examined in the economic and business literature under many perspectives. However, the industry-level view, specifically the relation between industrial policies and M&A waves at the sectoral level, has remained rather unexplored. This article contributes to fill this gap by empirically investigating the relation between selective industrial policies and M&A waves at the industry level in China. Referring to the four Five Year Plans covering the period 1996–2015, we explore whether being identified as an emerging sector in these plans generates positive or negative changes in the number of M&As. We reiterate the analysis according to the different types of M&As (vertical, horizontal or conglomerate) and the different natures of the acquirer (SOEs or private). Our results suggest that policies can differentially affect M&A waves according to the type of M&A. Moreover, while private firms are more responsive to both horizontal and vertical integration in emerging sectors, SOEs are more prone to engage in vertical M&As. We discuss the possible rationales behind the different behaviors. We also draw general policy implications on strategic industrial policy and market restructuring.     

Product Reliability,R&D,and Manufacturing Cost Shocks

Suppose a firm’s research and development (R&D) improves product reliability which in turn decreases the cost of product failure for both the firm and its customers. The primary research question of the paper is how a firm with market power optimally adjusts its R&D if it experiences a manufacturing cost shock. Our model suggests that a manufacturing cost shock prompts the firm to do less R&D in the cases where the replacement cost is low or the marginal manufacturing cost is high. Conversely, if the replacement cost is high and the marginal manufacturing cost is low, then the firm increases R&D, mitigating some of the increase in the manufacturing cost. The paper also compares the outcomes for reliability, profits, consumer surplus, and social surplus for the optimal R&D case as compared to the case of doing no R&D, paying particular attention to how exogenous changes in the marginal manufacturing cost affect this comparison.     

Technology transfer on a two-way street: R&D spillovers through intermediate input usage and supply

Intermediate input usage is known to channel R&D spillovers across countries and industries. This paper highlights that technology also diffuses across countries and industries through intermediate input supply. Technology transfer to intermediates suppliers ensues from R&D that induces a demand for technologically advanced intermediates. I analyze R&D spillovers through intermediate input usage and supply for 18 manufacturing industries in 20 OECD countries over 1987–2009. Results support both use- and supply-driven R&D spillovers. Comparing their effects reveals interesting variations. Among domestic industries, intermediate input supply is the dominant channel. For international relations, both use- and supply-driven R&D spillovers are found.     

Sectoral Productivity Growth and R&D Spillovers in the Netherlands

This paper assesses empirically whether R&D spillovers are important and whether they originate from domestic or foreign activities. Data for eleven sectors are used to explain the impact on total factor productivity of R&D by the sector itself, by other Dutch sectors and by foreign sectors. We find that both domestic and foreign R&D are significant for the Dutch economy. The elasticity of total factor productivity with respect to R&D is approximately 37% for R&D by a sector, 15% for R&D by other Dutch sectors and 3% for R&D by foreign sectors. Our findings suggest moreover that more R&D speeds up the adoption of foreign technologies. Thus, even for a small open economy as the Netherlands, promoting investment in R&D is appropriate as it both stimulates adoption and generates spillovers.