Estimates of optimal public capital stocks in Japan using a public investment discount rate framework

The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the optimality of the level of public capital in Japan. We use a methodological approach based on Burgess's (1988) procedure for calculating the public discount rate. This approach involves estimating a production function, but does not necessarily require utility function estimation. The results indicate that, although the Japanese economy experienced a public capital deficiency over the period 1960–1982, public capital moved toward optimal levels throughout the period. First version received: March 1997/final version received: June 1998     

非公有资本进入我国卫生领域的理论与实践

2005年初,国务院3号文件明确规定,放宽非公有制经济市场准入,允许非公有资本进入社会事业领域,支持、引导和规范非公有资本投资教育、科研、卫生、文化、体育等社会事业的非营利性和营利性领域。我国目前正经历一个“国退民进”的过程。公有资本与非公有资本的边界怎样划分一直是理论界研究和争论的焦点。该研究从公有资本和非公有资本的本质属性出发,通过政策回顾和文献检索,分析了非公有资本进入各行业的理论与实践;通过学习、借鉴非公有资本进入卫生领域的国际经验,对其进入我国卫生领域的总量、结构、形式等做了相对客观的总结和评价。     

Public capital, endogenous growth, and endogenous fluctuations

Cazzavillan [Cazzavillan, G., 1996. Public spending, endogenous growth, and endogenous fluctuations. Journal of Economic Theory 71, 394–415] studies a discrete-time, one-sector endogenous growth model with a flow of publicly enjoyable goods and productive services financed through income taxation. He demonstrates how equilibrium paths are indeterminate, for a large range of the consumption externality of public spending. This study extends [Cazzavillan, 1996] by considering an otherwise identical production function, except with public capital stock as an input. The results support the robustness of multiple growth paths even in a one-sector growth model with public capital stock, and modify the set of the consumption externality of public spending, in determining growth dynamics in a similar model with non-accumulated public spending.     

Testing the Saving-Investment correlations in India: An evidence from single-equation and system estimators

This study tests the Saving-Investment correlations in India using both single-equation and system estimators. All the estimators suggest the cointegrating relationship between saving and investment, and the results are robust to the choice of estimator. The conventional and new CUSUM tests show long-run stability of equilibrium residuals and reinforce the cointegrating relationship between the model series. The slope parameter on saving is significantly different from zero, but not from one. These results support the FH hypothesis and suggest the imperfect mobility of capital and home-bias in the asset portfolio of domestic investors. The heavy reliance of investment on domestic saving also reinforces the ‘Lucas Puzzle’ on the lack of capital flows from the developed countries to the developing countries with scare capital and higher marginal product of capital.     

财政分权框架下的财政政策和货币政策

本文扩展了Barro( 1 990 )和Gong和Zou( 2 0 0 2 )的模型 ,讨论财政分权框架下的政府财政政策和货币政策 ,通过消费者行为、地方政府行为和中央政府行为之间Nash均衡解 ,得到了经济增长率和各参数的隐式关系 ,并且通过数值模拟得到经济增长率与各种税收以及政府间转移支付的关系。我们发现经济增长率和收入税的关系是Laffer曲线 ,消费税对经济增长的影响是正的 ,财产税对经济增长的影响是负的。至于货币政策的影响 ,我们发现货币不再是超中性的了 ,供应量增加可以促进经济增长 ,而且经济中的货币的流通程度越高 ,经济增长率越高。最后 ,本文还讨论了多级地方政府的情况 ,分析了不同税收制度的地区对整个经济增长的不同影响。     

国有资本经营预算制度构建探析

国务院决定,从2011年开始正式实施国有资本经营预算。在2007—2009年,共收取中央企业国有资本收益1572.2亿元,2010年中央国有资本经营预算收入预计421亿元,加上上年结转收入19亿元,合计440亿元。因此,如何建立国有资本经营预算制度,是确保国有资产保值增值的重要举措,是公众行使知情权和监督权搭造起一个信息平台,是＂十二五＂期间我国建立公共财政框架体系的一个重要内容。论文从国有资本经营预算内涵角度出发,对实行国有资本经营预算的依据进行说明,进而提出构建国有资本经营预算制度的思路。     

Public capital in the 21st century: as productive as ever?

The global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis that followed induced a rapid deterioration in the fiscal positions of countries across the globe. In the ensuing fiscal adjustment process, public investments were severely reduced in many countries. How harmful is this for growth perspectives? Our main objective is to find out whether the importance of public capital for long run output growth has changed in recent years. To this end, we expand time series on public capital stocks for 20 OECD countries and estimate country-specific recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Results show that the effect of public capital shocks on economic growth has not increased in general, although results differ widely between countries. This suggests that the current level of public investments generally does not pose an immediate threat to potential output. Of course, this could change if low investment levels are sustained for a long time.     

The Application of Sensitivity Analysis on Comprehensive Transportation Evaluation

Comprehensive transportation evaluation objects using multi-objective decision method is a process of choosing the best one from a few objects through calculating, analyzing, and comparing the index system. The result may be different because of the difference of the index weight and index value. Therefore, sensitivity analysis should be one of the necessary parts of the decision-making. It is desired to give the index with higher sensitivity and its varying scope to control the index strictly during the execution process. This paper derives transfer index weight, which changes the rank evaluation order of the projects. Meanwhile, a simple, effective and practical method based on sensitivity district and sensitivity matrix is proposed for the sensitivity analysis of decision-making. As an example, the index sensitivity in decision-making of some provinces comprehensive transportation objects, and their influence on the final decision are discussed.     

Endogenous mortality, human capital and economic growth

We consider growth and welfare effects of lifetime-uncertainty in an economy with human capital-led endogenous growth. We argue that lifetime uncertainty reduces private incentives to invest in both physical and human capital. Using an overlapping generations framework with finite-lived households we analyze the relevance of government expenditure on health and education to counter such growth-reducing forces. We focus on three different models that differ with respect to the mode of financing of education: (i) both private and public spending, (ii) only public spending, and (iii) only private spending. Results show that models (i) and (iii) outperform model (ii) with respect to long-term growth rates of per capita income, welfare levels and other important macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical predictions of model rankings for these macroeconomic indicators are also supported by observed stylized facts.     

Can good projects succeed in bad communities?

The lack of “social capital” is frequently given as an explanation for why communities perform poorly. Yet to what extent can project design compensate for these community-specific constraints? I address this question by examining determinants of collective success in a costly problem for developing economies — the upkeep of local public goods. It is often difficult to obtain reliable outcome measures for comparable collective tasks across well-defined communities. In order to address this I conducted detailed surveys of community-maintained infrastructure projects in Northern Pakistan. The findings show that while community-specific constraints do matter, their impact can be mitigated by better project design. Inequality, social fragmentation, and lack of leadership in the community do have adverse consequences but these can be overcome by changes in project complexity, community participation, and return distribution. Moreover, the evidence suggests that better design matters even more for communities with poorer attributes. The use of community fixed effects and instrumental variables offers a significant improvement in empirical identification over previous studies. These results provide evidence that appropriate design can enable projects to succeed even in “bad” communities.     

基于大股东掏空下的经理人薪酬激励机制研究

大股东的存在加强了对经理人的监督,但存在大股东掏空时经理人会与大股东谈判以降低其业绩标准,从而削弱经理人的薪酬激励监督。文章将大股东掏空与经理人薪酬激励纳入同一分析框架,探讨两者的相互作用。研究发现,大股东掏空降低了经理人的业绩薪酬激励强度,并且实际控制人性质也影响这种激励强度。文章的研究为更全面地了解大股东的作用和两类代理成本的相互影响提供了参考。     

政府清廉度与电子政务的关系探讨

政府清廉度历来是世界各国政府和公民关注的问题,作为新公共管理运动与现代通信技术相结合产生的电子政务,为改善政府的清廉度提供了新思路和新手段。然而世界范围内的电子政务运动是否有效提高了各国政府的清廉度,还缺乏相应的实证研究结果支持。本文运用了来自国际透明和联合国的相关数据,对126个国家和地区四年的数据进行了实证研究,发现无论是反映电子政务静态发展特征的电子政务就绪指数,还是反映电子政务动态发展的电子参与度,都没有对政府清廉度产生统计显著影响。说明目前世界电子政务的整体水平仍然处于起步阶段,在这一时期必要条件是在电信基础方面的大量和持续性投入,在此基础上,更重要的工作是系统化的制度改革与跟进。     

自主研发、技术引进与我国工业行业生产率提升

利用面板动态最小二乘法估算我国工业分行业国内研发和通过进口贸易从14个OECD国家获得的技术溢出对全要素生产率的贡献。结果表明,国内研发投入对全要素生产率的贡献不管是系数还是显著性都明显高于通过进口获得的研发溢出对全要素生产率的贡献。进一步区分资本品行业与非资本品行业并进行回归,发现非资本品行业的溢出效应显著为正,而资本品行业的溢出效应显著为负。利用非资本品行业的估计结果及进口渗透率计算各行业的全要素生产率对14个贸易伙伴国的研发投入弹性。计算表明,对我国的技术溢出处于前5位的是美国、日本、德国、澳大利亚和加拿大,这一方面是因为这些国家的研发投入相对较大,另一方面是因为我国从这些国家的进口额也较大。