Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes

The latest versions of the Global Trade Analysis Project database and the Linkage model of the global economy (projected to 2015) are used to estimate the impact of removing all merchandise trade distortions (including agricultural subsidies). Results suggest that a move to free merchandise trade would increase farm employment, the real value of agricultural output and exports, real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes in developing countries. This would occur despite the decline in international terms of trade for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries.     

农业贸易自由化对我国环境的影响与对策

环境问题是人们普遍关注的重大问题。随着经济全球化与贸易自由化进程的加快 ,贸易与环境问题已成为学术界及世贸组织谈判的重要议题。到目前为止 ,国内学者对贸易与环境问题的讨论 ,大都集中在发达国家实行高标准的环境政策对我国产品国际竞争力影响的问题上 ,较少涉及贸易自由化程度提高对我国环境的影响 ,尤其是在农业方面。经过 1 5年艰苦谈判 ,我国终于加入ＷＴＯ ,它意味着我国农业国际化和自由化程度将不断提高。因此 ,充分认识和研究农业贸易自由化的环境效应及其在我国的表现 ,对政府及时采取有效的政策措施 ,化减负面环境效应 ,实…     

China's Accession to the World Trade Organization: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.     

欧盟共同农业政策与多哈回合僵局

从1968年开始,欧盟共同农业政策历经多次改革。农业谈判是多哈回合的核心议题,欧盟2003年的共同农业政策改革有助于谈判,但改革的不彻底也使得多哈谈判陷入僵局。只有解决欧盟的农业补贴和农产品关税问题,多哈回合谈判的僵局才有可能打破。     

新一轮多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响

多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响一直存在很大争论。与以往的研究不同,本文应用一般均衡模型GTAP与局部均衡模型CAPSIM对接的方法测算新一轮多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响。研究显示,贸易自由化总体上对中国经济有正面的影响,只不过影响幅度很小,但农业部门会在多哈自由化中享受相对较大的贸易优势;从分产品的贸易和生产来看,粮食作物、果蔬等产品有正的影响,而对畜产品和食糖会有负的影响;虽然贸易自由化对中国农民收入来说只有很小的正面影响,但这种影响在不同收入组之间差别很大,其中高收入组农民要比低收入组农民受益更多,贸易自由化在一定程度上会使农民的贫富差距拉大。     

An Economic Analysis of the Effects of the Uruguay Round Agreement and Full Trade Liberalization on the World Dairy Sector

A dairy trade model of the world dairy economy is developed. The model incorporates the allocation of milk fat and solids- nonfat among dairy commodities in a spatial equilibrium context. The model is used to simulate the market equilibrium impacts of the Uruguay Round Agreement and full free trade in the world dairy sector, including prices, production, consumption and trade flows. The free trade results indicate average world prices for farm milk near current U.S. levels, while farm milk prices in western Europe, Japan and Canada fall by 25.8%, 36.4% and 32.3%, respectively. In contrast, Australia and New Zealand farm milk prices rise by 22.5% and 50.8%, respectively.
Un modèle de l'économic laitière mondiale est développé. Le modèle analyse l'allocation spatiale du lait, de ses composantes (c'est-à-dire, matière grasse, protéine) et des produits laitiers. Il est utilisé pour simuler les effets de l'accord de l'Uruguay et de la libéralisation des marchés sur l'économie laitière, y compris sur les prix, la production, la consommation et les échanges commerciaux. Les résultats indiquent qu'en présence de marchés libres, les prix mondiaux seraient proches des prix courants aux États-Unis, alors que leprix du lait diminuerait de 25,8 %, 36,4 % et 32,3 % en Europe de l'Ouest, au Japan et au Canada, respectivement. Par contraste, le prix du lait en Australie et en Nouvelle Zélande augmenterait respectivement de 22,5 % et 50,8 %.     

Impacts of Trade and Agricultural Policies on the World Malt and Malting Barley Market

Major changes have been occurring in agricultural policies affecting world malt and malting barley production and trade. This paper analyzes effects of these changes on international trade and competition. A spatially disaggregated linear programing model of the world malt and malting barley sector is constructed and used to analyze effects of changes in European Union supply, European Union restitutions, the U.S. Export Enhancement Program subsidy regime, and import tariffs on malt and malting barley. Policy changes are found to generate substantial changes in trade flows and competitiveness between producing and exporting regions.     

多哈回合农业谈判新进展--发展中国家的关注

对于广大发展中国家而言 ,由于农业部门的特殊性和重要性 ,多哈回合农业谈判一直备受关注。多哈回合核心部分是农业框架协议。所以分析框架协议的内容、影响 ,表达发展中国家的关注 ,对明确今后的谈判立场、更好地维护发展中国家的利益十分必要。     

The Potential Impacts of State Trading Enterprises on World Markets: The Exporting Country Case

Export state trading enterprises (STEs) play an important role in global agricultural trade. STE behavior has significant implications for world food markets, irrespective of whether or not these markets are inherently competitive. Previous literature has suggested that STEs have market power and can earn oligopolistic rents. We find there is no compelling empirical evidence to support this argument. However, we show the cross-commodity effects of export STEs can disrupt competitive world markets, through offering an implicit export subsidy to a downstream industry.     

Trade Reform and the Corn Market: Prospects for the World Trade Organization Negotiations on Agriculture

Government support and trade restrictions on agricultural commodities are among the most globally distorting protectionist policies. This is especially true with regards to corn. Vast production subsidies and import barriers, primarily within the European Union and China, have artificially inflated the global supply of this commodity, while restricting the available consumer markets. This impact is augmented by the preferential treatment granted in these countries to the production and importation of the best available substitute to corn, soybeans. Using an econometric model with commodity data over the past 20 years, this article predicts the likely impact of potential World Trade Organization (WTO) trade pacts on these corn trade distortions. Despite the WTO setback in Seattle, the vast global benefits resulting from agricultural trade liberalization in corn alone validate a continued push towards freer trade.     

欧盟共同农业政策改革及其对WTO新一轮农业谈判的影响

2 0 0 3年 6月 ,欧盟对其实行了 40多年的共同农业政策进行了根本性的改革 ,其核心内容是改变了欧盟对农业的补贴方式。这次改革是由欧盟财政不堪重负、迫于欧盟东扩的压力、欧盟内部多种因素以及为在WTO新一轮农业谈判中争取主动等引发的。但是 ,由于这次改革所涉及的农产品种类不多 ,并未实质性地削减农业补贴 ,以及只包括国内支持政策的调整等原因 ,它对推动WTO新一轮农业谈判的作用十分有限。