短期融资券评级有用吗？

短期融资券是由非金融企业在银行间债券市场上发行并约定在一定期限内还本付息的有价证券。作为一种融资性的无担保商业本票，短期融资券的信用风险客观存在。本文讨论了我国短期融资券市场的发展，并通过对短期融资券级别与信用利差之间关系的分析，来为短期融资券评级的作用提供实证证据，研究结果发现，我国的主体长期信用级别与信用利差之间存在显著差别。     

基于扩展的KMV方法的短期融资券信用溢价分析

本文通过扩展KMV模型对公司违约的定义,实证研究了我国上市企业短期融资券的信用溢价。结果表明,由模型得出的信用溢价只能解释样本债券总价差的一部分,但总体上与短期融资券价差存在一定的正相关关系。模型能够反映短期融资券信用风险的变化,为短期融资券的定价提供一定参考。     

上市公司短期融资券风险溢价研究

通过对12家发行短期融资券的上市公司进行研究,分析其违约距离和短期融资券风险溢价的关系,发现二者有负相关关系.违约距离比信用评级能提供更多的关于风险溢价的信息,但不能完全解释风险溢价.     

短期融资券投资风险的影响因素

当前市场上对短期融资券的高信用评级在某种程度上更可能是评级机构对信用风险的评测不充分，文章认为使用信用评级来度量风险对投资而言意义不大；该文从影响短期融资券风险程度的各个因素中寻找最显著的因子，以期通过对各项因子的划分建立风险评分卡；并以此评分卡为基础来控制投资于各种不同因素的短融的比例，从而为该种债券的风险控制提供参考。     

基于Z值模型的企业短期融资券定价分析

基于Altman(1968)的Z值模型以及Houweling等(2005)对于流动性利差的研究方法,建立短期融资券定价模型。通过对2010年7—12月发行的120支短期融资券的量化分析得出以下主要结论:短期融资券的发行利差与发行规模、二级市场换手率、企业性质呈反向关系,与信用级别呈正向关系;信用级别不同发行主体的发行利差差异很大,上市公司相对国企来说能获得更低的信用溢价,最后提出相关建议。     

基于结构化模型的企业短期融资券信用溢价研究

本文在使用外生给定的违约回收率代替隐合违约回收率对结构化模型中的信用溢价公式进行修正后，对我国上市企业短期融资券的信用溢价进行了实证研究。结果表明，目前上市企业短期融资券的信用溢价水平整体较低．但一些短期融资券信用溢价的差异较为明显；模型计算得到的信用溢价与调整后的短期融资券发行利率存在一定正相关性，这种相关性在信用溢价较高时表现较为明显。     

短期融资券发行利差结构分析

本文选取175只短期融资券为样本，研究各主要因素对短期融资券发行利差的影响。实证分析发现，短期融资券发行利差具有明显的期限结构，并受到发行规模、央票利率水平、企业性质和重大信用风险事件的显著影响，个另4行业和超大型企业也能享受一定的利差优惠。研究还表明，现阶段在发行人个体层面没有明显的利差结构性差异，表现为发行人财务指标对发行利差的影响不显著。     

建立买方信用评级系统强化信用风险管控

建立健全买方信用评级系统的必要性 随着国内信用产品创新不断,信用产品整体的信用风险也不断加大和外化。所谓信用风险的加大是指以往信用产品的发行人绝大多数是资产和效益都较好的大型央企、国企,并且都由银行提供担保;而现在发行人已经扩展到中小型民营企业,且银行不再提供担保;所谓信用风险外化是指信用风险逐步从发行人（担保人）转移到投资人,2006年的“福禧事件”险些让福禧短期融资券的投资人血本无归,其后也陆续有一些短期融资券出现偿付风险,造成较大的市场波动。     

2013年中国债券市场发展报告

2013年中国债券市场收益率曲线平坦化上行,高评级信用利差收窄,信用债等级间利差拓宽。展望2014年,资金面仍将维持紧平衡,利率债供给压力将小幅增加,国债收益率曲线小幅陡峭化下移,下半年市场表现好于上半年;在信用债市场,随着下半年市场收益率水平下行和信用债供给的增加,高评级产品利差将会拓宽;中低评级债券受信用风险事件和交易所重启IPO影响,等级间利差也将拓宽。     

信用利差相关因素的分解探析

信用利差通常指同期限的信用债与国债收益率之间的差值。早期的研究把信用利差单纯地解释为信用债违约风险的补偿,并通过信用利差的变化推断企业违约概率的大小。不过后来的研究发现,信用利差实际上大大高于违约损失,并由此衍生出一系列对于信用利差的解释方式。从市场的实际情况也可以看出,有些财务状况更好的企业反而需要承受更高的信用利差,而即使是相同评级的债券,信用利差的差距也可能相当之大。     

我国短期融资券募集资金是否存在短融长投——对中国上市公司的实证研究

本文以发行短期融资券的上市公司为样本,用回归分析的方法实证研究了上市公司短期融资券募集资金的使用情况。实证结果显示短期融资券发行额与营运资金增加额呈显著的负相关关系,与长期资产现金支出、以及偿还债务所支付的现金均呈显著的正相关关系。表明上市公司发行短期融资券募集的资金存在短融长投及集中还贷的现象,也就反映了企业利用市场时机进行融资、并用短期资金进行长期投资的行为。这种短融长投的行为可能因为投融资期限不匹配而导致企业财务风险,并给投资者带来一定的兑付风险。     

Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin

For a firm financed by a mixture of collateralized (short-term) debt and uncollateralized (long-term) debt, we show that fluctuations in margin requirements, reflecting funding liquidity shocks, lead to increasing the firm’s default risk and credit spreads. The severity with which a firm is hit by increasing margin requirements highly depends on both its financing structure and debt maturity structure. Our results imply that an additional premium should be added when evaluating debt in order to account for rollover risks, especially for short-matured bonds. In terms of policy implications, our results strongly indicate that regulators should intervene fast to curtail margins in crisis periods and maintain a reasonably low margin level in order to effectively prevent creditors’ run on debt.     

News sentiment and sovereign credit risk

We explore the impact of media content on sovereign credit risk. Our measure of media tone is extracted from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics database. As a proxy for sovereign credit risk we consider credit default swap (CDS) spreads, which are decomposed into their risk premium and default risk components. We find that media tone explains and predicts CDS returns and is a mixture of noise and information. Its effect on risk premium induces a temporary change in investors’ appetite for credit risk exposure, whereas its impact on the default component leads to reassessments of the fundamentals of sovereign economies.     

Investment‐Based Corporate Bond Pricing

A standard assumption of structural models of default is that firms' assets evolve exogenously. In this paper, we examine the importance of accounting for investment options in models of credit risk. In the presence of financing and investment frictions, firm‐level variables that proxy for asset composition are significant determinants of credit spreads beyond leverage and asset volatility, because they capture the systematic risk of firms' assets. Cross‐sectional studies of credit spreads that fail to control for the interdependence of leverage and investment decisions are unlikely to be very informative. Such frictions also give rise to a realistic term structure of credit spreads in a production economy.     

信用债违约特征与市场展望

从总量的角度来看,信用债违约主体数量呈现上升的趋势,违约主体的行业、地区分布相对较为分散,各主体的违约特征呈现多元化的趋势,受经济增速下行压力加大、民企再融资收紧、股票质押爆仓等因素的影响较为明显。结合微观企业违约的最新特点,在信用风险分析的过程中需要重点关注企业是否发生了投资激进、短债长投、公司治理风险、财务舞弊等问题。建议正本清源,加强对财务造假的惩治力度,强化企业信息披露,推进社会信用体系建设,发挥民营企业信用缓释工具作用。     

Pricing Sovereign Credit Risk of Poland: Evidence from the CDS Market

We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads, thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts. We compare different specifications of the models allowing for both fixed and time-varying LGD, and we use these values to analyze the sovereign credit risk of Polish debt throughout the period of a global financial crisis. Our results suggest the presence of a low LGD and a relatively high PD during a recent financial crisis.     

Investment timing and optimal capital structure under liquidity risk

Deterioration in debt market liquidity reduces debt values and affects firms' decisions. Considering such risk, we develop an investment timing model and obtain analytic solutions. We carry out a comprehensive analysis in optimal financing, default, and investment strategies, and stockholder–bondholder conflicts. Our model explains stylized facts and replicates empirical findings in credit spreads. We obtain six new insights for decision makers. We propose a ‘new trade-off theory’ for optimal capital structure, a new tax effect, and new explanations of ‘debt conservatism puzzle’ and ‘zero-leverage puzzle’. Failure in recognizing liquidity risk results in substantially over-leveraging, early bankruptcy or investment, overpriced options, and undervalued coupons and credit spreads. In addition, agency costs are surprisingly small for a high liquidity risk or a low project risk. Interestingly, the risk shifting incentive and debt overhang problem decrease with liquidity risk under moderate tax rates while they increase under high tax rates.     

Market conditions,default risk and credit spreads

This study empirically examines the impact of the interaction between market and default risk on corporate credit spreads. Using credit default swap (CDS) spreads, we find that average credit spreads decrease in GDP growth rate, but increase in GDP growth volatility and jump risk in the equity market. At the market level, investor sentiment is the most important determinant of credit spreads. At the firm level, credit spreads generally rise with cash flow volatility and beta, with the effect of cash flow beta varying with market conditions. We identify implied volatility as the most significant determinant of default risk among firm-level characteristics. Overall, a major portion of individual credit spreads is accounted for by firm-level determinants of default risk, while macroeconomic variables are directly responsible for a lesser portion.     

The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk

Default risk analysis is important for valuing corporate bonds, swaps, and credit derivatives and plays a critical role in managing the credit risk of bank loan portfolios. This paper offers a theory to explain the observed empirical regularities on default probabilities, recovery rates, and credit spreads. It incorporates jump risk into the default process. With the jump risk, a firm can default instantaneously because of a sudden drop in its value. As a result, a credit model with the jump risk is able to match the size of credit spreads on corporate bonds and can generate various shapes of yield spread curves and marginal default rate curves, including upward-sloping, downward-sloping, flat, and hump-shaped, even if the firm is currently in a good financial standing. The model also links recovery rates to the firm value at default so that the variation in recovery rates is endogenously generated and the correlation between recovery rates and credit ratings before default reported in Altman [J. Finance 44 (1989) 909] can be justified.     

Sovereign credit spreads

The paper develops a structural credit risk model to study sovereign credit risk and the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. The model features endogenous default and recovery rates that both depend on the interaction between domestic output fluctuations and global macroeconomic conditions. We show that sovereigns choose to default at higher levels of economic output once global macroeconomic conditions are bad. This yields to default rates and credit spreads that are substantially higher compared to normal times. We derive closed-form expressions for sovereign debt values and default times and focus on the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. As opposed to standard theories of sovereign debt, this paper’s structural model generates much richer default patterns and non-linearities through regime-shifts in the global macroeconomic environment. Moreover, changes in the global environment reveal the interconnectedness of the financial system.