Trend derivatives: Pricing,hedging, and application to executive stock options

Both institutional and private investors often have only limited flexibility in timing their investment decision. They look for investments that will ideally be independent of the timing decision. In this article, a new class of derivative products whose payoff is linked to the trend of the underlying instrument is introduced. By linking the trend to the payoff, the timing of the decision becomes less important. Therefore, trend derivatives offer some time‐diversification benefits. How trend derivatives are designed and priced is shown. Due to their peculiar features, trend derivatives offer some interesting applications such as executive stock option plans. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:151–186, 2007     

Optimal futures hedging for energy commodities: An application of the GAS model

This paper applies generalized autoregressive score-driven (GAS) models to futures hedging of crude oil and natural gas. For both commodities, the GAS framework captures the marginal distributions of spot and futures returns and corresponding dynamic copula correlations. We compare within-sample and out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of GAS models against constant ordinary least square (OLS) strategy and time-varying copula-based GARCH models in terms of volatility reduction and Value at Risk reduction. We show that the constant OLS hedge ratio is not inherently inferior to the time-varying alternatives. Nonetheless, GAS models tend to exhibit better hedging effectiveness than other strategies, particularly for natural gas.     

Pricing and hedging in the freight futures market

In this article, we consider the pricing and hedging of single‐route dry bulk freight futures contracts traded on the International Maritime Exchange. Thus far, this relatively young market has received almost no academic attention. In contrast to many other commodity markets, freight services are non‐storable, making a simple cost‐of‐carry valuation impossible. We empirically compare the pricing and hedging accuracy of a variety of continuous‐time futures pricing models. Our results show that the inclusion of a second stochastic factor significantly improves the pricing and hedging accuracy. Overall, the results indicate that the Schwartz and Smith ( 2000 ) two‐factor model provides the best performance. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:440–464, 2011     

Pricing and hedging S&P 500 index options with Hermite polynomial approximation: empirical tests of Madan and Milne's model

The universal use of the Black and Scholes option pricing model to value a wide range of option contracts partly accounts for the almost systematic use of Gaussian distributions in finance. Empirical studies, however, suggest that there is an information content beyond the second moment of the distribution that must be taken into consideration.This article applies a Hermite polynomial-based model developed by Madan and Milne (1994) to an investigation of S&P 500 index option prices from the CBOE when the distribution of the underlying index is unknown. The model enables us to incorporate the non-normal skewness and kurtosis effects empirically observed in option-implied distributions of index returns. Out-of-sample tests confirm that the model outperforms Black and Scholes in terms of pricing and hedging. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 735–758, 1999     

Determinants of corporate hedging and derivatives: A revisit

Although the primary purpose of hedging is to reduce earnings volatility, corporate hedging may also increase firm value. Using publicly-available data, we found that hedging reduces the probability of financial distress, reduces the agency costs of debt, and reduces some agency costs of equity. However, we found no support for the hypothesis that hedging increases firm value by reducing expected tax liability. In addition, we suggest that corporate ownership structure may affect the desirability of hedging. We also found that large firms have a stronger tendency to hedge, firms with a larger percentage of value derived from growth opportunities are more likely to hedge, and convertible debt serves as a substitute for corporate hedging. With a dummy variable for multinational corporations as a proxy for operational hedging, we found that operational hedging and derivative hedging are complements rather than substitutes.     

Canonical valuation and hedging of index options

Canonical valuation is a nonparametric method for valuing derivatives proposed by M. Stutzer (1996). Although the properties of canonical estimates of option price and hedge ratio have been studied in simulation settings, applications of the methodology to traded derivative data are rare. This study explores the practical usefulness of canonical valuation using a large sample of index options. The basic unconstrained canonical estimator fails to outperform the traditional Black–Scholes model; however, a constrained canonical estimator that incorporates a small amount of conditioning information produces dramatic reductions in mean pricing errors. Similarly, the canonical approach generates hedge ratios that result in superior hedging effectiveness compared to Black–Scholes‐based deltas. The results encourage further exploration and application of the canonical approach to pricing and hedging derivatives. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jnl Fut Mark 27: 771–790, 2007     

Market volatility and the demand for hedging in stock index futures

This study examines the relation between stock market volatility and the demand for hedging in S&P 500 stock index futures contracts. Open interest is used as a proxy for hedging demand. The analysis employs unique data that identify separately the open interest of large hedgers, large speculators, and smaller traders. Volatility estimates are decomposed into expected and unexpected components, to assess whether traders’ reactions to volatility depend upon its predictability. Results indicate that daily open interest for hedgers increases when unexpected volatility increases. Increases in unexpected volatility may cause hedgers to raise their estimates of future expected volatility, and hence increase their demand for hedging. Open interest of speculators is not related to expected volatility, and is only weakly related to unexpected volatility. The increase in the participation of hedgers in periods of higher volatility is significantly larger than the increase in the participation of speculators. The results suggest that increases in stock market volatility increase the demand for hedging. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 105–125, 2000     

On the optimal mix of corporate hedging instruments: Linear versus nonlinear derivatives

We examine how corporations should choose their optimal mix of linear and nonlinear derivatives. We present a model in which a firm facing both quantity (output) and price (market) risk maximizes its expected profits when subjected to financial distress costs. The optimal hedging position generally is comprised of linear contracts, but as the levels of quantity and price‐risk increase, the use of linear contracts will decline due to the risks associated with overhedging. At the same time, a substitution effect occurs toward the use of nonlinear contracts. The degree of substitution will depend on the correlation between output levels and prices. Our model also allows us to provide insight into the relation between a firm's derivatives usage and its transaction‐cost structure. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:217–239, 2003     

Lévy betas: Static hedging with index futures

This study considers calibration to forward‐looking betas by extracting information on equity and index options from prices using Lévy models. The resulting calibrated betas are called Lévy betas. The objective of the proposed approach is to capture market expectations for future betas through option prices, as betas estimated from historical data may fail to reflect structural change in the market. By assuming a continuous‐time capital asset pricing model (CAPM) with Lévy processes, we derive an analytical solution to index and stock options, thus permitting the betas to be implied from observed option prices. One application of Lévy betas is to construct a static hedging strategy using index futures. Employing Hong Kong equity and index option data from September 16, 2008 to October 15, 2009, we show empirically that the Lévy betas during the sub‐prime mortgage crisis period were much more volatile than those during the recovery period. We also find evidence to suggest that the Lévy betas improve static hedging performance relative to historical betas and the forward‐looking betas implied by a stochastic volatility model.     

浅析套期保值中棉花套利的应用

套保套利是指以规避现货价格风险为目的的期货交易行为.企业开展套保套利交易,是将期货市场当作转移价格风险的场所,利用期货合约作为将来在现货市场上买卖商品的临时替代物,对其现在买进但准备以后售出的商品或对将来需要买进的商品的价格进行"锁定"的交易活动.套保套利的本质在于"风险对冲"和"风险转移".     

BitMEX bitcoin derivatives: Price discovery,informational efficiency,and hedging effectiveness

BitMEX is the largest unregulated bitcoin derivatives exchange, listing contracts suitable for leverage trading and hedging. Using minute-by-minute data, we examine its price discovery and hedging effectiveness. We find that BitMEX derivatives lead prices on major bitcoin spot exchanges. Bid–ask spreads, interexchange spreads, and relative trading volumes are important determinants of price discovery. Further analysis shows that BitMEX derivatives have positive net spillover effects, are informationally more efficient than bitcoin spot prices, and serve as effective hedges against spot price volatility. Our evidence suggests that regulators prioritize the investigation of the legitimacy of BitMEX and its contracts.     

The effects of skewness on optimal production and hedging decisions: An application of the skew‐normal distribution

Assume that the spot price has a skew‐normal distribution. This study investigates the effect of skewness on optimal production and hedging decisions. It is shown that skewness has no effect on the optimal production level but induces the firm to become more active in futures trading. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:278–289, 2010     

Pricing and hedging American fixed‐income derivatives with implied volatility structures in the two‐factor Heath–Jarrow–Morton model

Most previous empirical studies using the Heath–Jarrow–Morton model (hereafter referred to as the HJM model) have focused on the one‐factor model. In contrast, this study implements the Das ( 1999 ) two‐factor Poisson–Gaussian version of the HJM model that incorporates a jump component as the second‐state variable. This study aims at examining the performance of the two‐factor model through comparing it with the one‐factor model in pricing and hedging the Eurodollar futures option. The degree of impact arising from the jump factor also is examined. In addition, three new volatility specifications are constructed to enhance further the pricing performance of the model. Their performances are compared according to three performance yardsticks—in‐sample fitting, out‐of‐sample pricing, and the hedging test. The result indicates that the two‐factor model outperforms the one‐factor model in both the in‐sample and out‐sample price fitting, but the one‐factor model performs better in the hedging test. In addition, the HJM model, coupled with the proposed volatility specification, leads to good fitting results that will be of considerable use to practitioners and academics in guiding model choice for interest‐rate derivatives. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:839–875, 2002     

Project Finance and Concession Pricing Models: An Application to Brazilian Ports

Since the Lei dos Portos (“Ports Law”) of 1993, Brazilian ports have operated under the landlord regime, which places the management of ports in the hands of a national authority and provides for the rendering of private services inside the facilities. The model has enabled increases in capacity as well as gains in efficiency, both of which are currently limited due to infrastructure constraints. Expanding infrastructure by building additional ports was an option for the sector to meet the needs of a growing economy. In this context, this article discusses the adoption of public–private partnerships and project finance structure to propose a formula to compute the value of a new port.     

Reconstructing volatility: Pricing of index options under rough volatility

Avellaneda et al. (2002, 2003) pioneered the pricing and hedging of index options – products highly sensitive to implied volatility and correlation assumptions – with large deviations methods, assuming local volatility dynamics for all components of the index. We present an extension applicable to non-Markovian dynamics and in particular the case of rough volatility dynamics.