Learning About Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice

We estimate a dynamic model of how consumers learn about and choose between different brands of personal computers (PCs). To estimate the model, we use a panel data set that contains the search and purchase behavior of a set of consumers who were in the market for a PC. The data includes the information sources visited each period, search durations, as well as measures of price expectations and stated attitudes toward the alternatives during the search process. Our model extends recent work on estimation of Bayesian learning models of consumer choice behavior in environments characterized by uncertainty by estimating a model of active learning—i.e., a model in which consumers make optimal sequential decisions about how much information to gather prior to making a purchase. Also, following the suggestion of Manski (2003), we use our data on price expectations to model consumers’ price expectation process, and, following the suggestion of McFadden (1989a), we incorporate the stated brand quality information into our likelihood function, rather than modeling only revealed preference data.Our analysis sheds light on how consumer forward-looking price expectations and the process of learning about quality influence the consumer choice process. A key finding is that estimates of dynamic price elasticities of demand exceed estimates that ignore the expectations effect by roughly 50%. This occurs because our estimated expectations formation process implies that consumers expect mean reversion in price changes. This enhances the impact of a temporary price cut. Finally, while our work focuses specifically on the PC market, the modeling approach we develop here may be useful for studying a wide range of high-tech, high-involvement durable goods markets where active learning is important.JEL Classification: C15, C33, C35, C42, C51, C52, D83, D84     

Recent Progress on Endogeneity in Choice Modeling

We describe recent progress in several areas related to endogeneity, including: choice set formation and attention to attributes; interactions among decision-makers; respondents' strategic behavior in answering stated preference choices; models of multiple discrete/continuous choice; distributions of willingness-to-pay; and methods for handling traditionally endogenous explanatory variables.     

The Impact of Frequent Shopper Programs in Grocery Retailing

Frequent shopper programs are becoming ubiquitous in retailing. Retailers seem unsure however about whether these programs are leading to higher loyalty, or to higher profits. In this paper we analyze data from a U.S. supermarket chain that has used a number of frequent shopper rewards to improve sales and profitability. We find that while these programs are profitable, this is only because substantial incremental sales to casual shoppers (cherry pickers) offset subsidies to already loyal customers. In this way our findings are inconsistent with existing theories about how frequent shopper programs are supposed to work. We construct our own Hotelling-like model that explicitly models cherry picking behavior and show that its predictions match the data quite closely. We further test the predictions of our model by characterizing the impact of such programs on trip frequency and basket size. We then use the model to examine more complex scenarios. For example, our analysis suggests that frequent shopper programs may be unprofitable if they eliminate all cherry picking. This may explain why some retailers seem dissatisfied with their programs. We end by proposing a solution that retains the benefits of the frequent shopper programs and yet continues to let supermarkets benefit from price discrimination.     

A Cross-Validity Comparison of Conjoint Analysis and Choice Models at Different Levels of Aggregation

Several (ratings-based) conjoint analysis and experimental choice (choice-based conjoint) models are compared on their ability to predict both aggregate choice shares among the sample and individual choices in an availability validation task. While there was a weak relationship between validations at the individual and aggregate levels, several models stand out. In general, models capturing individual differences validated well at both the individual and aggregate level. The hierarchical Bayes choice and conjoint models validated particularly well.Among choice models, the hierarchical Bayes choice model had the highest aggregate and individual level-validations. It was followed by the hybrid and seven segment latent segment choice models. Overall, the highest validating ratings-based conjoint model was the hierarchical Bayes model. However, the seven segment latent segment conjoint model produced better aggregate choice share validations than any other conjoint model. These results indicate that validations can be improved either by using benefit segment models and/or merging different types of data to estimate more individualized models.In most cases, rescaling improved the ratings-based, but not the choice-based choice share validations. This suggests that one might adjust for differences between ratings and choice tasks before making choice share predictions.     

When Plentiful Platforms Pay Off: Assessment Orientation Moderates the Effect of Assortment Size on Choice Engagement and Product Valuation

Popular digital platforms, such as Netflix and GrubHub, purposefully aggregate offerings, according to the premise that customers value products chosen from plentiful assortments. Yet academic literature provides little clarity about when, for whom, or how larger online retail assortments affect the value of the products. To provide new insights, the current article aims to address ambiguous extant findings about the effects of larger product assortments. Specifically, this research tests whether customers with high, as opposed to low, assessment orientation value products more when they have chosen them from larger, as opposed to smaller, assortments. Four experiments affirm this idea, such that customers with a high assessment orientation value products more when they have chosen them from platforms with relatively larger assortments. Sequential mediation of the effect occurs through increased choice engagement and attitude certainty. For managers, customer segmentation along the assessment dimension offers benefits, while assessment type marketing communications can increase the likelihood of product selection, like in our field study, where we find an increase of 27%.     

Modeling Methods for Discrete Choice Analysis

This paper introduces new forms, sampling and estimation approaches fordiscrete choice models. The new models include behavioral specifications oflatent class choice models, multinomial probit, hybrid logit, andnon-parametric methods. Recent contributions also include new specializedchoice based sample designs that permit greater efficiency in datacollection. Finally, the paper describes recent developments in the use ofsimulation methods for model estimation. These developments are designed toallow the applications of discrete choice models to a wider variety ofdiscrete choice problems.     

选择与选择成本——品牌降低选择成本的机制分析

本文通过对选择爆炸式增长的描述,抽象出一般选择过程模型,并深入分析这一过程中所发生的成本及构成,证明品牌正是通过降低消费者的选择成本提高了选择效率,而企业外部顾客的选择效率决定了处于过剩阶段企业的内部价值的实现和内部效率的高低。本文区分了交易费用与选择成本的差别,进一步深化了对"品牌经济学"分析范式的核心范畴——选择成本的认识。     

The Effect of Attribute Variation on Consumer Choice Consistency

We study the effect of shifts in attribute level differences on consumer choice consistency. Choice consistency is measured as the variance of the random error component in the consumer utility function: the smaller this variance, the higher choice consistency. We hypothesize that due to increased choice difficulty, choice consistency decreases if attribute level differences increase while average utility level differences between alternatives remain the same. In our empirical illustration we focus on the impact of price level shifts on choice consistency in conjoint choice experiments. Our results show that choice consistency decreases as price level differences increase and absolute price levels increase.     

物流技术的创新、选择和演进

本文认为,物流技术创新涉及经营管理和工具、装备、设施等领域,包括运输、储存、装卸、搬运、包装、配送、流通加工、信息等。一种新物流技术能否被社会选择,需求和相对要素价格变化是重要的影响因素。文章提出,物流技术与装备的发展趋势是先进性、信息化、多样性与专业性、标准化与模块化、系统性与可扩展性、智能性与人性化、绿色化与节能化。具体来说,物流技术会与信息技术紧密结合,实现高度自动化;运输技术会朝着高速化、重载化、节能化和更安全的方向演进,如重载列车、超级生态船、超高速飞机等;装卸搬运技术将向更加节省人力、更加智能、更有效率的方向发展,如激光导引自动车、搬运机器人等;仓储技术将向更加节约土地、节约空间、更加高效率的方向发展,如自动化立体仓库、驶入式激光导引高密度储存系统等。     

交叉验证在数据建模模型选择中的应用

交叉验证（CrossValidation）在模型选择中具有重要作用。在基于R语言的条件下,结合具体实例,LOO-CV交叉验证方法拟合的结果和模型拟合的图形是高度吻合的,结果的区分度也比较大;R程序算法在编制LOO-CV交叉验证方法程序比较简单,可以根据具体情况修改程序,具有明显的优势。     

Context Dependence and Aggregation in Disaggregate Choice Analysis

There is an emerging consensus among disciplines dealing with human decision making that the context in which a decision is made is an important determinant of outcomes. This consensus has been slow in the making because much of what is known about context effects has evolved from a desire to demonstrate the untenability of certain common assumptions upon which tractable models of behavior have generally been built. This paper seeks tobring disparate disciplinary perspectives to bear on the relation between context and choice, to formulate (1) recommendations for improvements to the state-of-the-practice of Random Utility Models (RUMs) of choice behavior, and (2) a future research agenda to guide the further incorporation of context into these models of choice behavior.     

HEV Choice Models as a Search Engine for the Specification of Nested Logit Tree Structures

This paper illustrates how the heteroskedastic extreme value (HEV) model can serve as an effective search engine for identifying appropriate tree structures in hierarchical choice models, particularly the nested logit. This use of the HEV model exploits its ability to estimate unique variances, and hence unique scale parameters, for each alternative in a choice set. The analysis of variance can reveal tree structures that may not be obvious to analysts who tend to base their search strategy on intuitive tree structures. The reliance on behavioural intuition may miss out on the identification of the 'best' tree in an econometric sense. This note illustrates how the HEV model is used to search for the hierarchical domain in which a statistically preferred nested logit model is positioned.     

Predicting Consumers' Preferences for and Likely Buying of Local and Organic Produce: Results of a Choice Experiment

Data from consumer intercept surveying and a hypothetical choice experiment conducted in 11 Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA grocery stores were used to predict consumers' preferences for and likely buying of local and organic produce. Results indicate that consumers strongly prefer produce with local and/or organic attributes, but are generally less likely to buy produce with these attributes. Consumers' sociodemographic characteristics, knowledge of different produce types, distance traveled for food shopping, and metro-area location affected preferences and likely buying behavior. These results will help local farmers in New Mexico and other states improve their competitiveness, preserve agricultural traditions, and contribute to economic development.     

大型零售企业市场竞争优劣态势分析及对策思考

随着我国加入ＷＴＯ日程的逼近和改革开放的深入,大型零售企业面临更加复杂困难的竞争环境。 只有认清自身在市场竞争中的优劣态势,找出正确的发展对策和途径,才能走出困境,实现辉煌发展。     

我国物流市场需求现状分析——以山东省淄博市物流业状况为案例的研究

经济增长应同时产生更大的物流需求。我国近年来经济发展速度较快,而同时物流业的发展没有太大的变化。本文通过对一个案例——山东省淄博市的物流业的状况进行的调查研究,得出的结论是我国物流市场与经济发展水平极不协调,物流业发展的速度和质量都落后于经济发展要求。物流业应在企业和政府的共同努力下促进结构调整和升级,从质和量两方面都更快发展。     

Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys

Measures of households' past behavior, their expectations with respect to future events and contingencies, and their intentions with respect to future behavior are frequently collected using household surveys. These questions are conceptually difficult. Answering them requires elaborate cognitive and social processes, and often respondents report only their “best” guesses and/or estimates, using more or less sophisticated heuristics. A large body of literature in psychology and survey research shows that as a result, responses to such questions may be severely biased. In this paper, (1) we describe some of the problems that are typically encountered, (2) provide some empirical illustrations of these biases, and (3) develop a framework for conceptualizing survey response behavior and for integrating structural models of response behavior into the statistical analysis of the underlying economic behavior.     

零售商圈的吸引力分析

商圈是由顾客选择商店的行为形成的 ,常用于商圈分析的吸引力模型 ,主要有赖利法则和哈夫模型 ,他们从该商场的销售面积和消费者到该商场的距离来确定商圈的大小 ,他们假设所有零售店商品同质同价。现引入价格因素重新对零售引力进行分析     

上市公司会计政策选择分析

随着新企业会计准则的实施,上市公司会计政策有了较大的可选择空间。同时,也必须认识到,上市公司一方面可以根据其生产经营目标和特点选择更适宜的会计政策,以保证会计信息的真实与公允,另一方面,新会计准则增加了上市公司利用会计政策选择进行盈余管理、报表粉饰甚至利润操纵的可能性。应控制会计政策的滥用,使企业会计政策选择剩余权不宜过大;健全上市公司的内部监控机制;完善上市公司会计准则。     

An Empirical Investigation of Composite Product Choice

Prior ingredient branding research has examined the influence of “stated” factors such as fit between partner brands on composite product (e.g., Tide with Downy fabric softener) attitudes. This research focuses on choice of composite products, and addresses three managerially relevant questions: Which consumer segments are more likely to adopt the composite product? Will the choice of the composite product have positive or negative reciprocal effects on partner brands? Will the introduction of the composite product benefit the primary or the secondary brand more? The authors use a brand choice model to investigate the “revealed” choice of complements-based composite products. Study results indicate that (i) despite high fit between the composite product and the primary brand, consumer segments may have different choice likelihoods for these products, whereas prior research suggests equal likelihood; (ii) the choice of a composite product may not provide a positive reciprocal effect to the secondary brand; and (iii) the introduction of a composite product may benefit the primary brand more than the secondary brand, whereas prior research suggests a symmetrical benefit for the partner brands. Finally, the finding that introducing a composite product may not cannibalize the sale of the primary brand extends the ingredient branding literature, which has been silent on this issue.     

企业预算控制模式的合理选择与匹配

本文认为,作为现代企业重要的管理手段,全面预算有其共性特征,但企业经营环境不同、管理风格不同,对预算控制系统的个性需求也不同。企业战略决定企业组织结构和组织权力划分,进而决定预算权和预算的组织管理模式。预算管理模式主要体现在预算组织网络、预算权的划分、预算控制重点及预算编制的程序与方法等方面。选择设计预算管理模式应考虑企业组织结构和管理方式、企业发展战略和所面临的市场环境、预算目标体系的设置与业绩评价等方面的因素。企业应根据所处行业、发展阶段和竞争情况与战略目标等特点,设置自己的预算指标和评价体系,并在实施过程中予以修正。