人均实际国内生产总值是面板变结构平稳还是单位根——基于中国省际数据的实证分析

单位根意味着实际产出的任何冲击都将对系统产生持久的影响,因此实际产出是否为单位根对政府政策的有效性具有重大的影响.面板数据蕴含来自时间维度和截面维度的双重信息,可以有效地提高平稳性检验的功效.但不可忽视的是,面板中个体时间序列又常常表现出结构上的突变.面板单位根检验不但允许结构突变改变个体时间序列的均值和(或)趋势,而且采用内生的方法确定突变点的个数和位置,允许个体在不同时点有不同数目的突变,是一种有效而实用的模型.本文对中国大陆27个省(市、区)年度实际国内生产总值的数据进行实证分析,结果表明我国人均实际国内生产总值是面板变结构平稳的,而且结构突变点通常与国内的重大事件相对应,与资本积累、人口增长或技术进步无关.我国省际人均实际国内生产总值面板数据中发现了四个结构突变点:所有省份的第一个结构突变点都是三年自然灾害时期的1961年,第二个结构突变点是在文化大革命时期的1966年,第三个结构突变点在从20世纪70年代末到整个80年代的改革开放初期,第四个结构突变点则在为市场经济正名的1992年前后.     

我国股票市场发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于股权分置改革前后数据的检验

一、实证研究方法及变量与数据的选取（一）研究方法1、单位根检验在进行协整检验和格兰杰因果检验前，需先进行单位根检验。一般的传统回归方程式，通常是在假设变量为平稳序列且残差项均值为零、方差为常数的条件下进行分析的。而当变量为非平稳序列时，若以传统回归方法进行分析，则可能产生谬误回归的问题，即检验结果可能有很高的R2值，     

两次金融危机对中国CPI的影响探讨

文章基于结构突变的单位根检验,就1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机对中国CPI的影响进行了定量分析。研究表明,我国CPI的数据生成过程(DGP)在1997年亚洲金融危机时仍服从单位根过程,而在2008年全球金融危机时却发生结构突变,服从结构突变的趋势平稳过程,其突变点为2008年11月。文章从一个新的实证分析视角,就两次金融危机对我国CPI不同影响的成因进行了深入考察。     

我国能源消费对工业增加值的影响分析

采用我国1998年～2010年工业能源消费的面板数据,并运用面板数据的单位根与协整检验对能源消费与工业增加值关系进行了研究,结果表明两者之间存在长期协整关系,影响程度也不尽相同,进而提出了低碳经济背景下促进我国经济增长和能源协调发展的建议.     

能源消费与经济增长的动态关系分析研究——以我国各区域为例

本文分析了我国各区域能源消耗与经济增长之间的关系,此种关系以动态的方式表现出来。利用面板数据模型的检验方法,进行了面板单位根检验、面板协整检验、面板模型估计、误差修正和Granger因果关系检验。     

投资与产能利用率：面板因果关系的检验

本文采用1999年至2008年制造业28个行业投资和产能利用率变量的面板数据（Paneldata）,并进行单位根、协整检验以及Granger因果关系检验,研究投资与产能利用率之间的均衡关系。结果表明,在长期,产能利用率是投资的Granger原因,在短期,产能利用率与投资是互为Granger原因的。     

金融危机对我国农产品价格波动的影响研究——基于07.01—09.08面板数据分析

本文利用2007.01—2009.08的月度面板数据,分析了金融危机对我国农产品价格波动的影响。首先运用单位根检验和协整检验,得知金融危机与我国农产品价格之间存在协整关系;然后利用格兰杰因果检验,发现金融危机确实导致了我国农产品价格下行,而农产品价格的下降不会进一步推动金融危机的恶化;最后通过构建误差修正模型更具体的描述金融危机对我国农产品价格的影响。     

我国地方教育投资对经济增长的影响——基于全国31个省(区)面板数据分析

文章所研究的问题是我国教育投资与经济增长的关系,运用1996—2014年全国31个省区、直辖市的面板数据、通过单位根检验、协整检验、F检验等方法,建立个体固定效应的变系数模型,对地方教育投入与地方经济增长之间的关系进行深入分析,进而提出优化教育投资的相关对策。     

异常值点对单位根检验的致命影响

单位根检验是协整建模及误差修正分析的基础与前提。单位根检验结果是否可信,直接影响后续的协整建模过程,从而影响变量之间长期的结构均衡关系,以及短期的误差修正机制。事实上,单位根检验对样本异常值点十分敏感,从而容易导致检验结果的不稳定。与现有大多文献中的模拟数据不同,本文以实例给出了这样一个强有力证据：即使是单个异常值点,也可以对单位根检验产生致命的攻击。同时,比较了不同单位根检验方法对异常值点影响的敏感度。最后,建议了一种诊断单位根检验强影响点的预识别方法。     

京津冀人口承载力水平与区域经济增长关系的研究

本文在建立人口承载力评价指标体系的基础上,运用熵值法和综合评价法对2004年-2012年人口承载力水平进行了测算。并采用单位根检验、面板协整检验,通过面板数据模型对人口承载力水平与区域经济增长关系进行了研究,研究成果可以为以后的政府决策提供参考。     

The hypothesis of a unit root in OECD inflation revisited

This paper investigates the hypothesis of a unit root in inflation for 13 OECD countries over the period 1957–2005, taking into account cross-sectional dependence and multiple mean shifts. We conduct unit root testing with the more powerful unit root tests with cross-dependence proposed by Smith et al. [Smith, L. V., Leybourne, S., Kim, T., & Newbold, P. (2004). More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to the mean reversion in real exchange rates. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(2), 147–170] and a bootstrap version of the panel stationarity test of Hadri [Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 148–161.], which provide inconclusive evidence on the time series properties of OECD inflation rates. To shed some light on this issue, we employ the recently developed panel stationarity test of Carrión-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrión-i-Silvestre, J. L., Del Barrio, T., & López-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita. The Econometrics Journal, 8(2), 159–175] that assumes a highly flexible trend function by incorporating an unknown number of breaks in level. Overall, our confirmatory analysis renders clear-cut evidence in favor of regime-wise stationarity. Furthermore, the breaks in inflation detected are closely associated with macroeconomic shocks and changes in monetary policy.     

Firm size and growth in Sweden's life insurance market between 1855 and 1947: A test of Gibrat's law

Using data for the period from 1855 to 1947 and the two sub-periods, 1855–1902 and 1903–47, the article examines whether the organic growth rates of 38 Swedish life insurance firms are independent of size, as predicted by Gibrat's (1931) Law of Proportionate Effects. Using panel unit root tests and panel Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) regression, the article finds a significant difference between the growth rates of small and large Swedish life insurance firms (with smaller firms tending to grow faster than larger firms), a result that clearly contradicts Gibrat's Law as a long-run tendency in the Swedish life insurance sector. significant influences were also found on firm growth from profitability, organisational form, reinsurance, the real rate of interest and the Swedish regulatory environment.     

Current account sustainability in advanced economies

This paper investigates the sustainability of current accounts in advanced economies using a panel of 27 countries and annual data over the 1980–2008 period. Relying on various panel unit root tests and a sequential panel selection method, we find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear but stationary current account trajectories only for 7 countries, while the remaining 20 appear to be non-stationary and thus unsustainable. Our analysis indicates that careful empirical modelling of current account dynamics, particularly in relation to cross-section dependence and nonlinear behaviour, is crucial for appropriate economic policy-making.     

Environmental regulations and the export performance of South Korean manufacturing industries: A dynamic panel approach

This paper investigates the relationships among environmental regulation, export performance, and factor intensity, using panel data from South Korea's manufacturing sector (1991–2009). A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model in first differences tests the relationships among the variables, while considering the results of heterogeneous panel unit root and cointegration tests. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations help determine dynamic series relationships, and panel-causality tests are run based on the results of GMM estimations. There is evidence of a positive short-run linear causal relation running from environmental regulation to export performance, suggesting that environmental-protection expenditure may constitute a comparative advantage. The short-run linear causal relation from export performance to investment in activities related to environmental protection is insignificant.     

Current account sustainability in Latin America

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account deficit in eighteen Latin American countries through the analysis of the stationarity properties of the current account balance. First, we apply traditional unit root tests and consider the possibility of structural breaks. Second, since the current account may have a nonlinear behaviour, we test for linearity in the data and analyse current account stationarity by means of a recently developed nonlinear unit root test. Results from linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that current account sustainability is supported for the majority of Latin American countries with the exception of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Paraguay. For the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela the current account dynamics are best described by a stationary linear model, and by a stationary linear model with a mean shift in years 2003, 1982 and 1980 in Bolivia, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, respectively. In the case of Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, results show that the current account is best described by a mean-reverting nonlinear process.     

The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis

Although there has been much recent work on purchasing power parity (PPP), neither univariate nor panel methods have produced strong rejections of unit roots in US dollar real exchange rates for industrialized countries during the post-1973 period. We investigate the hypothesis that these non-rejections can be explained by one episode, the large appreciation and depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s, by developing unit root tests which account for this event and maintain long-run PPP. Using panel methods, we can strongly reject the unit root null for those countries that adhere to the typical pattern of the dollar’s rise and fall.     

Testing Gibrat’s Law: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of Portuguese Manufacturing Firms

The purpose of this paper is to use Dynamic Panel Data (DPD) models with serial correlation in the error term to see if Gibrat’s law holds and to analyse the empirical determinants of firm growth. This paper makes significant contributions to the empirical literature on the dynamics of firm growth, since it updates the work carried out by previous researchers in this field using micro panel data, dynamic firm growth models with serial correlation in the error term, panel unit root tests and GMM‐system estimator. To conduct this study we used an unbalanced panel of Portuguese manufacturing firms over the period from 1990 to 2001. The main implication of our findings is that firm growth is not quite random since there are some determinants which exert influence on firm growth.     

基于区制转移模型的房价泡沫实证研究

目前,单位根与协整检验法在房地产泡沫的研究中应用最为广泛,但这种方法存在一定缺陷。本文利用区制转移模型,对2001-2009年上海市房地产价格泡沫进行实证研究,结论表明上海房地产市场上非理性的狂热跟风行为并不是价格泡沫的形成原因,而是由人们对未来房地产投资收益的理性预期所引发,是一种理性价格泡沫。     

Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models

This paper aims to identify the main causes of bilateral trade flows in OECD countries. The specific features of the study include the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as the two important explanatory variables, conduct of unit root tests in the panel data framework and careful consideration of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to bilateral trade, while the distance, measured by both geographical distance and relative factor endowment, between trade partner countries has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and new growth theories.