Liquidity commonality in commodities

We examine liquidity commonality in commodity futures markets. Using data from 16 agricultural, energy, industrial metal, precious metal, and livestock commodities, we show there is a strong systematic liquidity factor in commodities. Liquidity commonality was present in 1997–2003 when commodity prices were relatively stable and during the recent boom. There is some support for both “supply-side” and “demand-side” explanations for this commonality. We find no evidence of a consistent link between stock and commodity liquidity in general. Energy commodities appear to provide a better hedge against equity market liquidity risk than the other commodity families.     

流动性导流——中国货币需求及现阶段流动性过剩问题研究

近年来,流动性过剩成为了我国宏观经济的要害性问题.所谓"流动性导流",就是将目前过剩的流动性通过若干可能的渠道疏导到实体经济之外,使之基本不对实体经济产生负面影响.我国流动性过剩是由外向型经济结构引起的外汇过多流人造成的,在经济结构短期内难以根本改变且人民币升值预期难以根本逆转的情况下,只能从疏导过多流动性的角度来寻找防治通胀之道.具体的疏导渠道包括将一部分流动性导向境外和在境内扩大虚拟经济以吸收一部分流动性.后者是解决当前通胀压力和股市扩容压力的一箭双雕之策,也是本文的新观点所在.     

Stock and Bond Liquidity and its Effect on Prices and Financial Policies

An asset is liquid if it can be traded at the prevailing market price quickly and at low cost. We show that in addition to risk, liquidity affects asset prices and returns. Theories of asset pricing suggest that the expected return of an asset is increasing in its risk, because risk-averse investors require compensation for bearing more risk. Because investors are also averse to the costs of illiquidity and want to be compensated for bearing them, asset returns are increasing in illiquidity. Thus, asset prices should depend on two asset characteristics: risk and liquidity. This paper surveys research on the effects of liquidity on asset prices and returns, showing that liquidity is an important factor in capital asset pricing.     

Liquidity,liquidity risk,and information flow: Lessons from an emerging market

This paper examines the role of public and private information flows in intraday liquidity and intraday liquidity risk in the Tunisian stock market. Our empirical results are based on ARMA and GARCH-type models and show that, for major Tunisian stocks, gradually elapsed public information together with gradually elapsed private information in the market is the dominant factor in liquidity improvements in the Tunisian stock market. Liquidity improvements are generated by a decrease in the bid-ask spread accompanied by an increase in the depth at best limit. Our results clearly indicate that the arrival of public information in a sequential manner is the dominant factor generating increases in liquidity risk related to the bid-ask spread, while the advent of private information in a contemporaneous manner is the dominant factor generating increases in liquidity risk related to the depth at best limit. Additionally, our results show that liquidity risk persistence disappears when trading volume and order imbalance are included as explanatory variables in the conditional variance equation.     

Liquidity risk and policy options

On the basis of a liquidity management model, liquidity risks, defined as the probability of payment failures in a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) payment system, may either stem from liquidity management inefficiencies or insufficient cash balances. I will show that penalties charged on the amount of payment failures minimise liquidity risks without interfering with the bank’s technology preferences. I will instead show that liquidity requirements, although as effective as penalties to contain the risk of liquidity shortage, may distort the bank’s technology preferences and cannot stem liquidity management inefficiencies. I will also show that liquidity risks within RTGS payment systems are potentially smaller because they depend more on the liquidity management efficiency than on the randomness of cash inflows and outflows.     

流动性过剩的机理分析

流动性过剩是世界经济发展中出现的一个新问题。但流动性是什么,流动性过剩指的又是什么,国内外的学者们都有不同见解。既然流动性过剩一词是作为对世界经济运行状态的表述,则其合理的内核应该是一致的。只有弄清什么是流动性、什么是流动性过剩,我们才能对流动性过剩问题做更进一步的研究。本文以凯恩斯对流动性的理解为基础,构建了一个流动性过剩的理论框架,提出了流动性过剩的判断标准及其存在的前提条件,以此为流动性过剩的深入研究做一些有益的探讨。     

Liquidity and market incompleteness

This note shows that according to Lippman and McCall’s (Am Econ Rev 76, 43–55, 1986) operational definition of liquidity, incomplete markets are a necessary condition for illiquidity. This note is a revised subset of a larger paper that circulated under the name of “Liquidity as an Insurance Problem” (Zurita 2001). I am grateful to Luis Ahumada, David K. Levine, Raimundo Soto, Gert Wagner, Federico Weinschelbaum and seminar participants at UCLA, Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, Banco Central de Chile, LACEA, Jornadas de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay, and ILADES, for their helpful comments, as well as the feedback of an anonymous referee. Financial support from Vicerrectoría Académica de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile is gratefully acknowledged.     

Liquidity and capital structure

We examine the relation between equity market liquidity and capital structure. We find that firms with more liquid equity have lower leverage and prefer equity financing when raising capital. For example, after sorting firms into size quintiles and then into liquidity quintiles, the average debt-to-asset ratio of the most liquid quintiles is about 38% while the average for the least liquid quintiles is 55%. Similar results are observed in panel analyses with clustered errors and using instrumental variables. Our results are consistent with equity market liquidity lowering the cost of equity and, therefore, inducing a greater reliance on equity financing.     

次贷危机期间我国流动性管理操作评析——基于流动性测度

本文运用相对指标法设计真实货币缺口系数来测度我国在次贷危机期间的流动性状况,并对流动性供给状况进行了区间划分。在此基础上,本文归纳了人民银行流动性管理的操作实践,并对其实践效果进行评析,指出引进计量模型用于流动性测度的必要性,认为人民银行的流动性管理操作基本满足我国流动性管理需求,流动性管理工具的作用效果存在差异,其中法定存款准备金率对于调整货币供给量的作用不明显,再贴现政策的恰当使用强化了政策的综合效应。     

论中央银行视角下的微观流动性管理

随着金融市场的快速发展,中央银行的流动性管理越来越多地通过金融市场的平台来进行。金融机构作为金融市场的主要参与者,其流动性管理模式应当纳入中央银行的考察视野。为此,本文从宏观与微观流动性的基本定义出发,分析了中央银行宏观流动性管理与金融机构微观流动性管理的内涵与联系,以及中央银行关注微观流动性管理的必要性。最后,本文就如何关注微观流动性管理问题提出了几点建议。     

Liquidity risk and syndicate structure

We decompose syndicated loan risk into credit, market, and liquidity risk and test how these shape syndicate structure. Commercial banks dominate relative to non-banks in loan syndicates that expose lenders to liquidity risk. This dominance is most pronounced when borrowers have high levels of credit or market risk. We then tie commercial banks’ advantage in liquidity risk to access to transactions deposits by comparing investments across banks. The results suggest that risk-management considerations matter most for participants relative to lead arrangers. Links from transactions deposits to liquidity exposure, for instance, are more than 50% larger at participants than at lead arrangers.     

影子银行体系与流动性管理

影子银行体系具有特殊的形成机理,是金融抑制制度背景下的博弈产物。目前,影子银行体系在金融市场上以证券化的方式创造流动性,容易在短期内出现从流动性过剩到流动性紧缩的转变,造成宏观经济的不稳定,需要作出必要的监管安排。     

Liquidity,assets and business cycles

The objective here is to evaluate the quantitative importance of financial frictions in business cycles. The analysis shows that a negative financial shock can cause aggregate investment, employment and consumption to fall with output. Despite this realistic comovement among macro quantities, a negative financial shock generates an equity price boom as the shock tightens firms׳ financing constraint. This counterfactual response of the equity price is robust to a wide range of variations in how financial frictions are modeled and whether financial shocks affect asset liquidity or firms׳ collateral constraints. Some possible resolutions to this puzzle are discussed.     

现阶段我国商业银行流动性过剩问题及对策研究

流动性管理是商业银行的生命线。上个世纪末国内商业银行出现了持续性的流动性过剩,引起了理论界、实务界的普遍关注。本文考察了商业银行流动性管理理论的发展,分析了我国商业银行流动性问题发展阶段、特点,提出了商业银行改善流动性管理的政策建议。     

Portfolio Insurance with Liquidity Risk

This paper studies a portfolio insurance problem with liquidity risk. We consider an investor who wants to maximize the expected growth rate of wealth in a low liquid market. The investor can trade assets only at random times and his wealth must not fall below a predetermined floor. We find the optimal expected growth rate and an optimal strategy. The optimal strategy is closely related with a traditional constant proportion portfolio insurance strategy. Also we show that the same strategy maximizes the growth rate almost surely. Further we study the floor effect on the growth rate.     

Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment

This paper provides evidence that financial development has a large causal effect in the reduction of macroeconomic volatility resulting from the role of the financial system in liquidity provision. In particular, financial system development leads to a comparatively larger reduction in the volatility of output in sectors with high liquidity needs. Most of this decline results from the stabilization of the output of existing firms, although the volatility of the number of firms also drops significantly. Among different aspects of the financial system, the depth of financial intermediaries plays the main role in the reduction of volatility.     

Liquidity provision,interest rates,and unemployment

The effective liquidity supply of the economy—the weighted-sum of all assets that serve as media of exchange—matters for interest rates and unemployment. We formalize this idea by adding an over-the-counter market with collateralized trades to the Mortensen–Pissarides model. An increase in public liquidity through a higher supply of real government bonds raises the real interest rate, crowding out private liquidity and increasing unemployment. If unemployment is inefficiently high, keeping liquidity scarce can be socially optimal. A liquidity crisis affecting the acceptability of private assets as collateral widens the rate-of-return difference between private and public liquidity, also increasing unemployment.     

Liquidity risk and the cross-section of hedge-fund returns

This paper demonstrates that liquidity risk as measured by the covariation of fund returns with unexpected changes in aggregate liquidity is an important determinant in the cross-section of hedge-fund returns. The results show that funds that significantly load on liquidity risk subsequently outperform low-loading funds by about 6% annually, on average, over the period 1994–2008, while negative performance is observed during liquidity crises. The returns are independent of the liquidity a fund provides to its investors as measured by lockup and redemption notice periods, and they are also robust to commonly used hedge-fund factors, none of which carries a significant premium during the sample period. These findings highlight the importance of understanding systematic liquidity variations in the evaluation of hedge-fund performance.     

全球流动性扩张的通货膨胀效应研究

近些年来,全球流动性扩张问题颇受宏观经济与金融研究者们的广泛关注。本文选取了33个国家或地区从1980年第一季度到2009年第四季度的相关经济和金融方面数据,在经济数据处理的基础上利用相关统计方法对全球流动性进行了测量。在Philips曲线基准模型框架下,本文考察了全球流动性扩张的通货膨胀效应。最后,结合实证研究结果本文给出了相关研究结论和启示。     

Liquidity and conditional portfolio choice: A nonparametric investigation

This paper studies the relation between liquidity and optimal portfolio allocations. Given that the portfolio problem of a constant relative risk aversion investor does not have a closed-form solution, we use a nonparametric approach to estimate the optimal allocations. Using a sample of NYSE stocks from 1963–2000, we find that the optimal portfolio weight in small stocks is strongly increasing in liquidity at short daily and weekly horizons. This result is consistent for three different measures of liquidity: price impact, dollar volume, and turnover. However, liquidity does not influence the optimal portfolio choice for large stocks, nor for longer monthly investment horizons.