干旱区草型湖泊湿地价值量化评估

本文以典型干旱区草型湖泊乌梁素海湿地为研究区,在实地调查和试验的基础上,依据资源经济学和生态经济学的理论和方法,针对乌梁素海湿地资源的特点,对乌梁素海湿地的价值进行了货币化评估。评估结果表明,乌梁素海湿地的总价值为28．24×10~8元,其中直接实物产品价值为7164．70×10~4元,直接非实物服务价值为18 193．43×10~4元,间接价值为81 960．58×10~4元,目前非使用类价值为17．51×10~8元。只有合理开发乌梁素海湿地资源,保护好这一对区域环境具有重要意义的干旱区湿地生态系统,才能实现乌梁素海湿地资源的可持续利用,保证湖区经济的可持续发展。     

A Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Construction and Applications

Synopsis We describe the first effort at creating a global ex-vessel fish price database, which is required for understanding the economic behavior of participants in the world’s fisheries. We demonstrate potential applications of the database by linking it to a spatially defined catch database, which makes it possible to attach landed values to species in both time and space. This is the first database available publicly where interested members of the public, researchers and managers can easily find and access ex-vessel prices of the world’s major commercial fish species. Preliminary results indicate that the average real price of a number of species have declined between 1950 and 2002. The estimated landed value of fish globally, in year 2000 dollars, was about US$24 billion in 1950. It increased steadily to about US$90 billion in the early 1970s, reached a peak of US$100 billion at the end of the 1980s, and declined to about US$80 billion in 2000. The top 15 fishing countries cumulatively account for 79% of total real landed value, with Japan leading, even though the value of its landings has been declining.      

On optimality in collective institutional choice

Conditions are investigated under which democratic choice of the division of land between collective and “private” use and of the distribution of collective income between “needs” and “work” payments will produce a Pareto-optimal land allocation and optimal collective labor incentives. Sen's optimal rule for the degree of “needs” distribution is found to result from self-interested voting on this parameter when the distribution of labor inputs is unskewed or when votes are weighted by labor contributions. This in turn increases the optimality of land allocation, which can be further improved by a simple rental scheme. J. Comp. Econ., Dec. 1981, 5(4), pp. 392–403. Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Selective immigration policies, human capital accumulation and migration duration in infinite horizon

An increasing literature fosters selective immigration policies as a tool to increase human capital in both source and destination countries. These policies are supposed to prompt incentives to education, and–if selection is sufficiently severe–to increase the human capital stock in source countries. Nonetheless, when compared to open migration, selective policies make returns to education uncertain, and they may harm incentives to invest in human capital. As a consequence, they may reduce the human capital stock even though selection is “severe”. Moreover, when repeated migration is possible, they backfire on migration duration. We obtain our results in an infinite-horizon model that, unlike the current literature, places no restriction on the number of possible migration spells and allows for the possibility of a forced emigration.     

Valuing ecosystem goods and services: a new approach using a surrogate market and the combination of a multiple criteria analysis and a Delphi panel to assign weights to the attributes

A new approach to valuing ecosystem goods and services (EGS) is described which incorporates components of the economic theory of value, the theory of valuation (USappraisal), a multi-model multiple criteria analysis (MCA) of ecosystem attributes, and a Delphi panel of experts to assign weights to the attributes. The total value of ecosystem goods and services in the various tenure categories in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA) in Australia was found to be in the range AUD$188 to $211 million year⁻¹, or AUD$210 to 236 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ across tenures, as at 30 June 2002. Application of the weightings assigned by the Delphi panelists and assessment of the ecological integrity of the various tenure categories resulted in values being derived for individual ecosystem services in the World Heritage Area. Biodiversity and refugia were the two attributes ranked most highly at AUD$18.6 to $20.9 million year⁻¹ and AUD$16.6 to $18.2 million year⁻¹, respectively.     

HABITAT–FISHERY LINKAGES AND MANGROVE LOSS IN THAILAND

The article develops a dynamic model of habitat–fishery linkage in which the habitat is being converted. The basic model is applied to a case study of the impacts of mangrove deforestation on the artisanal marine demersal and shellfish fisheries in Thailand. The comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on the long-run equilibrium level of effort and fish stocks, as well as on the resulting market harvesting supply of the fishery, are determined. By estimating parameters through pooled timE-series and cross-sectional data over the 1983–96 period for the five coastal zones along the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea, the welfare impacts of mangrove deforestation are estimated. Mangrove conversion is expected to be a function of the return to shrimp farming and the input costs to farming shrimp, plus exogenous economic factors. The resulting aggregate reduced-form level of mangrove clearing by all farmers in coastal areas is empirically estimated across the five coastal zones in Thailand over 1983–96. The policy implications of the findings are discussed with respect to Thailand and the modeling of habitat–fishery linkages.     

生态系统服务的价格估计方法及真实增长测度

以国际统计规范中生态系统服务价值的估价方法为基础,利用市场价值法、替代成本法、影子工程法等方法,构建生态系统服务核算的动态价格体系,对京津冀地区的生态系统服务价值进行合理测度。实证结果发现,以往采用的价格体系低估了生态系统服务价值,根据构建的动态价格体系得出,2016年北京市、天津市和河北省的生态系统服务价值总量分别为27706.27亿元、5836.21亿元和104407.23亿元,分别是各地区GDP的1.08倍、0.326倍和3.26倍;2016—2017年京津冀地区生态系统服务价值增量分别为502.63亿元、628.12亿元和-1713.33亿元;三个地区中价格因素对北京市生态系统服务价值年度变化的影响最大,而天津市和河北省受到价格因素的影响较小,剔除价格因素影响后京津冀地区生态系统服务价值的真实增长率分别为-0.15%、13.11%和-1.7%。     

Local financial benefits of rain forests: comparative evidence from Amerindian societies in Bolivia and Honduras

Researchers generally express the local value of tropical rain forests in dollars/ha/year. The approach is problematic because it produces low values to local users, underestimating the importance of the forest expressed as a share of household consumption or earnings. Here we contribute to valuation studies of rain forests by estimating the financial importance of the forest measured in three ways: (1) the contribution of forests to annual household consumption and (2) earnings; and (3) the value of a hectare of rain forest to villagers measured through the biological goods consumed and sold. We collected panel data on consumption and earnings from 81 households in four villages of two Amerindian societies in two nations (Tsimane’, Bolivia; Tawahka, Honduras). Analyses suggest: (1) forests account for a large share of household consumption (median 38.5%; range 14.65–53.11%); (2) forests contribute more to household consumption than to household earnings (median 22.69%; range 16.56–44.81%); (3) the relative contribution of forests to household consumption and earnings falls among villages closer to towns; and (4) the range of values/year of rain forest/ha is US$7.10–9.70 using 1999 dollars or US$18.46–46.56 using purchasing power parity indexes, below previous estimates. Results show much variation in forest values; valuation methods and stakeholder perspectives affect the variation. Given the variation, a useful strategy to promote forest conservation would transfer income to villagers to compensate them for non-local forest values.     

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

Ecosystem services value of wetland in Suzhou Taihu Lake

Based on a comprehensive analysis on various classifications of natural resource values,this paper summarizes an ecological services system of constructed wetland（CW） ecosystems for the accounting of ecological economic value.With the research,the wetland ecosystem services can be classified into six categories,that is waste treatment,food and material production,water supply,gas regulations,disturbance and water regulations,habitat and refuge provision.For decision making in terms of environmental economics for wetland construction,ecosystem services value for the wetland in Suzhou Taihu Lake National Tourist and Holiday Resort is accounted for 7,088,769 USD/yr through Environmental Economics Analysis.Ecosystem services value of waste treatment is 825,000 USD/yr,that of food and material production is 1,430 USD/yr,that of water supply is 4,752,000 USD/yr,that of gas regulation is 2,251USD/yr,that of disturbance and water regulations is 1,3721 USD/yr,and that of habitat and refuge provision value is 1,494,367 USD/yr.The ecosystem services values of a pilot constructed wetland in Suzhou are compared with those of other wetlands as a mean and of a typical human-interfered wetland in Wenzhou of China.Results show that in both finite and infinite time horizons considered,the wetland in Suzhou Taihu Lake National Tourist and Holiday Resort has the largest services value.This paper analyzes all the probability that may weaken the value of the Suzhou Taihu Wetland in order to provide some advices for the wetland protection.     

Estimating the cost of an emergency room visit for migraine headache

SUMMARY

To provide a more comprehensive accounting of direct cost of treating headaches, it is imperative to quantify the cost of emergency room (ER) services specific to treating headaches. Published cost estimates for migraine-specific ER visits are currently not available. This study estimated the cost of treating migraine headaches in the ER from a payer's perspective, using ER discharge data for migraine from the 2000 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS). Costs were estimated using Medicare reimbursement rates. The total cost of an ER visit for migraine headache, defined as the ER visit and all additional services and procedures, was US$238.16. Based on the migraine prevalence of 9% to 27%, the annual estimate for total ER visit costs for migraine headache in the US in 2000 ranged from US$646 million to US$1.94 billion, which is substantial. ER costs for migraine may be much larger then previously estimated.     

Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050

Investments in renewable energy were at US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US₂₀₁₀ by around 2030 and 1,500 billion by 2050. Employment in photovoltaic manufacturing is predicted to rise to 6 million by 2050. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the core parameters of assumptions is supplied.     

How to Get There From Here: Ecological and Economic Dynamics of Ecosystem Service Provision

Using a bioeconomic model of a coral reef-mangrove-seagrass system, we analyze the dynamic path of incentives to achieve an efficient transition to the steady state levels of fish biomass and mangrove habitat conservation. Our model nests different types of species habitat dependency and allows for changes in the extent of habitat to affect the growth rate and the long-run fish level. We solve the two-control, two-state non-linear optimal control problem numerically and compute the input efficiency frontier characterizing the tradeoff between mangrove habitat and fish population. After identifying the optimal locus on the frontier, we determine the optimal transition path to the frontier from a set of initial conditions to illustrate the necessary investments. Finally, we demonstrate how dynamic conservation incentives (payments for ecosystem services) for a particular habitat with multiple services are interdependent, change over time, and can be greater than contemporaneous fishing profits when the ecosystem is degraded.     

A model of adjuncts in higher education

We examine the phenomenon of the expanded use of non-tenure-track positions (“adjuncts”) and construct a supply-side Harris–Todaro model. Low adjunct wages are attributable to a “Hope Rent” from the gap between private opportunities and tenure-track utility.     

Optimizing the shares of native tree species in forest plantations with biased financial parameters

Addressing uncertainty is a key requirement to follow the principle of precaution in sustainable ecosystem management. The maximization of worst-case outcomes according to the “maximin” decision rule, based on the two parameters mean and variance of a financial indicator, is a prominent approach to integrate uncertainty in decision-making. In forestry, the problem of selecting the optimum tree species combination for a forest plantation investment can be seen as a problem of optimal portfolio selection, to be solved according to the “maximin” decision rule. Yet, it is well known that portfolios computed from expected means and variances are highly sensitive to changes in the estimated parameters. The financial results may be poor if we rely too much on the historical data. This paper tests an extended worst-case model that considers a lower bound for the expected mean net present value (NPV) of a tree species portfolio and an upper bound for its variance. Biased expected mean NPVs, variances and correlations for the tree species Picea abies [L.] Karst. (Spruce) and Fagus sylvatica L. (Beech) were used to test the variability of the resulting tree species portfolios (27 scenarios). A comprehensive simulated data set, which was adopted from an existing study and defined as the independent reference, served to evaluate the financial performance of the tree species portfolios obtained from optimization with the biased data. Compared with the results of classical worst-case optimization instances, it was feasible to reduce the variability of tree species shares effectively when the optimization was carried out with the extended worst-case approach. Furthermore, the financial performance of this approach was better when tested with the independent data. The worst-case forest NPVs achieved with the extended approach were on average 10% (statistical confidence 0.95) or 147% (statistical confidence 0.99) greater in comparison to the results of the classical approach. The influence of the uncertainty parameter selection was tested and the results were discussed against the controversial viewpoints on the usefulness of the “information-gap decision theory”. Finally, the significance of our results for sustainable ecosystem management is pointed out.     

Democracy and growth in Africa: Implications of increasing electoral competitiveness

Estimating a 1975–2004 decadal panel data in an augmented production-function framework, the paper finds that indexes of electoral competitiveness exhibit U-shape relationships with GDP growth, implying quite different “intermediate” and “advanced”-level effects of reforms in Africa.     

Economic and environmental efficiency using a social accounting matrix

This paper aims to show the utility of the so-called Social Accounting Matrix and Environmental Accounts (SAMEA) for economic and environmental efficiency analysis. The article uses the SAMEA for Spain in 2000, applied to water resources and greenhouse gas emissions. This matrix is used as a central core of a multisectorial model of economic and environmental performance, and it calculates the denominated “domestics SAMEA multipliers” and their decomposition into characteristic, direct, indirect and induced effects. These multipliers show some evaluation of economic and environmental efficiency. Also, we present an application of these multipliers that demonstrates that there is no causal interrelation between those sectors with higher economic backward linkages and those with higher environmental deterioration backward linkages.     

Giants, pygmies, and the social costs of fundamental research or price revisited

Social resource and opportunity costs of fundamental science are explored utilizing a model which integrates a) the determinants of the talent distribution of the cadre of fundamental scientists, b) the relationship of individual scientific productivity to scientific talent, c) the scientific value of aggregate scientific product, and d) the value of scientific personnel in nonscientific pursuits. On this basis, total, average, and marginal resource and opportunity costs of varying degrees of realization of “scientific potential” are derived. This comparative- static analysis is then applied to the United States over the period 1940 to 1975–1985, suggesting a four- to fivefold increase in the marginal resource cost and a five- to tenfold increase in the marginal opportunity cost of fundamental science over this period. In light of these findings and of the “free-good” aspect of the products of fundamental science, it is concluded that the level and mode of support for fundamental science must, ultimately, be determined with reference to the non- or quasiscientific contributions of fundamental scientists.     

The ghost of financing gap: testing the growth model used in the international financial institutions

The Harrod–Domar growth model supposedly died long ago. Still today, economists in the international financial institutions (IFIs) apply the Harrod–Domar model to calculate short-run investment requirements for a target growth rate. They then calculate a “financing gap” between the required investment and available resources and often fill the “financing gap” with foreign aid. The financing gap model has two simple predictions: (1) aid will go into investment one for one, and (2) there will be a fixed linear relationship between growth and investment in the short run. The data soundly reject these two predictions of the financing gap model.