基于主成分分析的上市公司财务危机预警模型研究

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象,选取2009年被ST的上市公司作为财务危机样本组,共61家,同时选取与财务危机组同行业,资产规模在10%差异之内的61家非财务危机上市公司作为配对样本,共计122家(61组)上市公司的财务数据进行研究。从这61组中随机选取31组配对样本作为学习样本组,用来构建财务困境预测模型,另外30组样本作为检验样本组,用来检验预测模型的有效性。     

基于主成分分析的经济统计方法及应用

常用的线性回归方法只将因变量视为随机变量,其回归结果随坐标系选取的不同将发生相应改变。受统计分析中主成分分析法的启发,提出了一种新的具有坐标无关性的一元线性回归方法——主成分分析法。用仿真例及实例验证了新方法与常规的最小二乘法相比回归系统偏差小,回归精度高。主成分分析法是数值解,其计算量上的优势使其具有广阔的应用前景。     

Competitive Strength of Construction in Shanxi Province Based on the Principal Component Analysis

明确地区建筑业的竞争力水平对于政府制定建筑产业的发展规划有着很重要的导向作用,而进行地区建筑业竞争力的分析评价工作是了解该地区的有效方式之一.建筑业竞争力分析的重要内容是构建评价指标体系和评价模型的选择.利用近五年的统计数据,选择有关建筑业竞争的相关指标,通过主成分分析法对各项指标赋予客观权重,对陕西省与江苏、山东等六个省市的建筑业竞争力进行比较分析,以各主成分的表现来说明陕西省的建筑业竞争力水平.结果表明陕西省建筑业竞争力水平在所选具有代表性的七个省市中处于下游,但有很好的发展前景.     

上市公司信息透明度评价研究--基于主成分分析与熵权法

基于公司信息透明度影响因素的现有研究,本文选择公司治理结构、股权结构、经营状况方面的12个指标构建公司信息透明度评价模型。在实证研究方面选取深交所38家房地产上市公司作为样本,运用主成分分析法将12个指标降维成6个主成分,用熵权法对6个主成分进行赋权,计算出样本公司信息透明度得分。研究结果表明房地产公司的营运和成长能力以及内部控制结构均对信息透明度影响显著,而公司财务杠杆和两权分离度的影响效应相对较弱。     

基于主成分分析法的生物质发电项目效益评价研究

首先构建了生物质发电项目经济效益评价的指标体系,介绍了主成分分析法的基本原理,然后对搜集到的数据采用SPSS软件进行主成分分析。事实证明,主成分分析能剔除指标之间的相关性,比其他方法更加简单易行,能为生物质发电项目的效益评价提供数据支持。     

行业因素对综合预警模型的判别效果的影响研究--以基于主成分分析的Logit模型为例

以2010～2012年期间我国沪深A股因财务困境陷入ST的公司和按照1∶2比例配比的正常公司作为研究对象,并根据行业特点对样本进行划分。同时,选取能够反映企业盈利能力、股东获利能力、现金流量能力、营运能力、发展能力、偿债能力的30个财务指标,在主成分分析的基础上构建各年度的Logit模型,对各行业的违约概率和判别准确度分别进行分析。结果表明,不同行业的违约概率和判别准确度均存在显著差异且存在共性特征。     

实证评析WTO《纺织品与服装协议》中的过渡保障条款

我们在加入WTO后应加强研究WTO《纺织品与服装协议》的有关内容,其中第6条过渡保障条款的规定常常被美国等发达国家利用,对一些国家的纺织品进口加以限制。本文通过WTO的一个真实案例,对该条款进行介绍和评析。希望引起国内有关主管部门和企业的关注,加强相关知识的学习,提高防范意识,学会运用WTO的有关规则,行使我们作为WTO成员国的权利,维护国内企业的合法权益。     

Images of the Virtuous Employee in China's Transitional Economy

We examine contemporary images of employee virtue and managers' perceptions of actual employee conduct in Wuhan, Beijing and Xi'an, drawing on document analysis and structured interviews with 112 respondents in ten case study companies. The image promulgation strategies of the one joint venture enterprise and the two private enterprises in our sample entailed active avowal of tradition linked employee virtue, drawing on a mixture of Communist and Confucian moral imagery. In contrast, most of the seven state-owned or predominantly state invested enterprises had abandoned or marginalized traditional Communist imagery, none promoted Confucian imagery, and two emphasized alternative images of one-sided servility toward the customer. We infer, from managers' accounts, that the abandonment of tradition linked images by the state-owned sector was a tacit acknowledgment of prior covenant violation, and that outside the state-owned sector, tradition linked moral propaganda contributed to moral atmosphere only when part of a consistent high-commitment HRM strategy. In drawing out implications for theory and further research, we note the different socio-political contexts of organizations in China and the West, discuss the relationship between bonds or covenants and psychological contracts, and compare tradition linked employee virtues with dimensions of organizational citizenship.     

A Model of the Asset Disposition Decision of the RTC

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the asset disposition decision for the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC). In this paper, we focus on the primary goal of the RTC—to maximize the net present value of the cash flows generated through holding and selling the assets it acquires. A major decision it faces is whether to hold or sell assets. This decision ultimately depends on the RTC's discount rate versus that of the marginal buyer. A second question relates to the decision of which assets to sell first and which ones to delay sale. The model developed in this paper characterizes the asset disposition decision process of the RTC for different types of assets. We develop a set of optimal disposition rules based on the simple premise of a multi-period cash flow maximization. In addition, we test some of these rules by analyzing RTC disposition performance. Through this exercise, we hope to provide some guidance to the RTC in implementing its enormous task as well as to policy makers in charting the progress of the RTC. The main results of this analysis indicate that liquid assets and retail deposit franchises should be sold as quickly as possible. Illiquid assets that are performing and do not have high servicing costs are good candidates to finance through senior/subordinated securities or sale with seller financing by the RTC. Illiquid non-performing assets are good candidates for equity participation financing by the RTC. The sales proceeds obtained by the RTC will be increased if buyers have greater certainty with respect to expected cash flows and RTC sales policies.     

战略投资决策中实物期权与情景分析的整合研究

随着市场经济的发展,企业面临着愈来愈多的不确定性,如何利用这些不确定性进行战略投资,就成为企业成败的关键。文章针对实物期权、情景分析两种方法的特点,将他们整合在一起来分析投资决策,形成一个可以指导企业进行战略投资决策的总体方法。     

A Product and Process Model of the Technology-Sourcing Decision

The technology‐sourcing decision traditionally has examined the choice either to innovate internally or to acquire technology from outside sources. The increasing complexity of this decision requires a move beyond the simple “make‐versus‐buy” dichotomy. We seek to test factors that influence the technology decision of subsidiaries for product and process technology across the continuum of options from internal development to outsourcing. We also explore concordance between the research streams of new product development and technology sourcing. Regression models are used to analyze data from 187 subsidiaries that suggest product and process technology development decisions sometimes are associated with similar factors and at other times they diverge. In particular, we find that external product and process technology acquisition decisions are associated negatively with differentiation goals and associated positively with product dynamism. While external product acquisition is associated negatively with a low cost goal and positively with increasing distance between primary marketing and R&D operations, external process technology acquisition is associated positively with high competitive intensity. Implications include the following: (1) While external product technology acquisition may provide quicker or even less expensive initial solutions, external reliance makes it difficult to maintain a long‐term positional advantage; (2) When greater distances separate key functional activities, external partners may provide solutions that are more responsive to local consumer needs, and the potential for improved communication may allow for quicker adaptation and increased flexibility; (3) In highly dynamic product situations, internal development, while providing greater control, can be expensive and can result in technologies that are not accepted by the marketplace; and (4) As competitive intensity increases, strategic imperatives may reduce the focus on product design and development and may require increasing concentration on manufacturing costs and efficiencies.     

理解企业外包决策的一个概念框架

企业在进行外包决策时，应该比较外包的总成本与内部生产的总成本。总成本由生产成本、谈判成本和机会主义成本构成。谈判成本和机会主义成本统称治理成本，其大小取决于产品的复杂性、市场的可争夺性和资产专用性三个因素。按照产品复杂性和资产专用性的不同，可以将企业的外包环境分成四种类型，在不同类型的外包环境下，外包企业应该采取不同的措施。     

服装卖场信息构成因素研究——男士商务休闲品牌服装卖场信息构成因素研究

服装卖场是企业实现销售的主要场所,随着体验经济的来临,卖场的重要性日益突出。更好的了解卖场的构成,更好的完善卖场的结构成为必然趋势。服装卖场信息构成因素的研究将有利于寻找提升卖场质量的源点。     

煤炭企业投资决策实证分析

通过线性规划在企业投资决策中应用的实例,阐明国有大型煤炭集团在对外投资决策时应方向明确,采用科学的管控模式,保障企业的投资收益率。     

房地产投资决策风险分析

房地产投资是以预测未知的将来需求而将货币和其他资源投入房地产综合开发、经营、管理和服务等活动中的一种投资行为,以期在将来获得不确定的收益,这决定了不确定性是其特有属性,如何防范、规避和控制风险便成为房地产开发企业生死攸关的问题。投资决策阶段是整个开发过程中直接关系到建设项目的成败,对开发商的经济效益和社会效益都具有现实和深远的影响。在房地产开发初始时,开发商拥有最大的不确定性和机动性,随着开发建设项目的进行,房地产开发商对可能发生的结果就知之愈多,不确定因素随之减少,风险因素逐步降低。同时,开发…     

考虑损失厌恶的物流服务供应链质量承诺决策分析

在物流服务供应链系统中,服务质量承诺能够有效降低客户的感知风险,是物流服务顺利交付的重要保证。本文考虑了客户的损失厌恶这种心理机制,以物流服务供应链整体效用最大化为目标构建集成商的质量承诺决策模型,并分析了质量监控成本、质量补偿成本、客户感知质量均值、客户收益敏感度以及客户损失厌恶程度对最优的质量承诺的影响。分析结果表明,集成商在考虑客户损失厌恶偏好情景下的质量承诺水平要高于仅考虑质量成本的情景。同时,客户损失厌恶程度和收益敏感度对质量承诺决策产生积极的作用,其中客户收益敏感度影响更大。     

A Model of Arbitral Decision Making: Facts,Weights, and Decision Elements

This study provides a structural model of arbitral decision making that depicts arbitrators as deciding cases by ascertaining the facts, attaching weights to the facts, and combining the facts and weights to form decision elements that determine their decisions. The model further posits that arbitrators’ biographical characteristics affect their decisions by influencing their fact finding and weight assignments. It also allows for arbitrators’ characteristics to have a direct impact on their decisions. A test of the model indicates that the decision elements determine the arbitrators’ decisions but the arbitrators’ characteristics have a limited impact.