Empleo manufacturero en la Región Centro de México. Una estimación por gran división

In this paper, the production performance by great division and its effects on formal job generation in the central region of Mexico is analyzed. The more dynamic manufacturing divisions are identified and with the estimation of an employment function with panel data for each of the nine manufacturing great divisions, it is found that divisions I. Food, beverages and tobacco, II. Textiles, clothing and leather industry, III. Wood and wood products and IX Other manufacturing industries exhibit a high income elasticity of employment (0.716, 1.035, 0.781 and 0.94) and that the more technical divisions, with greater innovation processes and highly exporting divisions such as division VIII. Metal products, machinery and equipment show a lower elasticity.     

Die Akzeptanz von Versicherungsdienstleistungen im Internet

There is not much known about the factors that determine online demand for insurances. This current study is a first attempt to locate the variables that affect the acceptance of online-purchase of an insurance policy from existing research and empirically verify them. Results show that good terms coupled with online purchase-experience is the most important cause for acceptance. Additionally, convenience (i.e., easy access to information through internet sites of insurance companies and easy and fast contracting), perceived barriers when transferring from a traditional insurance contract to an ?online contract“, information quality of the internet offer, perceived personal risk as well as perceived transaction risk are significant factors driving online demand for insurances.     

Overnight block trades in the Korean stock market

We examine the characteristics of overnight block trades in the Korean stock market from 2004 to 2015. We find that the discount on the offering price is negatively related to the number and return volatility of shares, the offering price is higher for firm-commitment contracts than for best-effort contracts, the discount level is lower for larger deal values under best-effort contracts, commission fee rates and fees are more pronounced under firm-commitment contracts, and a deal's uncertainty is related to the firm's contract choice. The incentives of sellers and investment banks are aligned unless sellers face an informational disadvantage.     

债务契约与企业风险承担:影响效果及机制检验

以2007-2018年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,考察债务契约对企业风险承担的影响.结果表明,债务契约显著提升了企业风险承担.进一步分析发现,债务契约主要通过降低管理者与股东之间的代理成本而达到提升企业风险承担的治理效应,具体表现为代理成本在债务契约与企业风险承担之间关系中发挥了部分中介效应.同时发现,契约期限异质性、经理管理防御与管理层持股在债务契约对企业风险承担的影响中发挥调节作用.     

Reducing reporting risk: Designating foreign currency forward contracts as cash flow hedges

We present an example that compares the effects on earnings of designating a foreign currency forward contract as either a cash-flow or fair-value hedge of a foreign currency denominated receivable. Entities engaging in exchange transactions not denominated in their functional currency frequently enter into foreign currency forward contracts in order to mitigate their foreign exchange rate risk exposure. The aggregate effect on earnings of the transaction gain or loss on the foreign currency receivable and the gain or loss on the forward contract is known on the date the forward contract is initiated. The effect on each period’s earnings during the term of a forward contract designated as a cash-flow hedge is also known on the date the contract is initiated; whereas the effect on each periods’ earnings from a fair-value hedge cannot be determined until the respective balance sheet dates. Therefore, designating forward contracts as cash-flow hedges may suppress volatility in reported earnings compared to designating forward contracts as fair-value hedges. In addition, the reporting risk (the amount of uncertainty surrounding the pending measure of an item to be reported in the financial statements) is lower when a forward contract is designated as a cash-flow hedge relative to designating it as a fair-value hedge. This suggests foreign currency forward contracts designated as cash-flow hedges are more consistent with the purpose of hedge accounting: to mitigate the effects on earnings of applying different measurement criteria for the hedge and the hedged item.     

(Net) Fair Value Accounting for Forward Contracts

This paper illustrates the contract method of accounting for a forward exchange contract under IAS 39. This differs from the method demonstrated in most current textbooks, which is based on gross accounting for the underlying rights and obligations of the forward exchange. The gross approach had been argued from the conceptual framework (eg, SAC 4) whereas IAS 39 requires the contract (net) approach. IAS 39 requires the existence of a contract for a financial instrument to be recognised and then requires accounting for that contract as a separate asset or liability from the underlying executory asset or obligations.     

Predicting firms' corporate governance choices: Evidence from Korea

This paper contributes to a new literature on the factors that affect firms' corporate governance practices. We find that regulatory factors are highly important, largely because Korean rules impose special governance requirements on large firms (assets > 2 trillion won). Industry factors, firm size, and firm risk are also important. Other firm-specific factors only modestly affect governance even when they are statistically significant. This suggests that many Korean firms do not choose their governance to maximize share price. Among firm-specific factors, the most significant are size (larger firms are better governed) and firm risk (riskier firms are better governed). Long-term averages of profitability and equity finance need are significant, where short-term averages are not. This is consistent with “sticky governance”, in which firms alter their governance slowly in response to economic factors.     

Factors affecting biasing of capital budgeting cash flow forecasts: evidence from the hotel industry

This study contributes to a neglected aspect of the capital budgeting process, namely, the proposal development stage, which is primarily concerned with project cash flow estimation. Given that the deployment of sophisticated selection techniques is severely undermined when directed to input data suffering from bias, it is surprising that minimal empirical research has sought to explore for antecedent factors associated with biasing of capital budgeting cash flow forecasts. This paper reports the findings of a survey concerned with determining factors associated with biasing of capital budget cash flow forecasts in hotels that are mediated by a management contract. Statistically significant support is provided for the view that higher levels of biasing of capital budget cash flow forecasts occur in the presence of: high emphasis attached to the payback investment appraisal method; deficient reserve funds for furniture, fittings, and equipment (FF&E); low operator accessibility to reserve funds for FF&E; shorter periods of time to management contract expiry; and high emphasis attached to non-financial factors in capital budgeting appraisal.     

Tariff evasion in sub-Saharan Africa: the influence of corruption in importing and exporting countries

Multilateral organizations recommend sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to increase international trade in order to attain sustainable economic growth. The benefits of trade can be hampered, however, by tariff evasion. Using trade data from 2008–2014 of 31 SSA countries, we examine how the association between tariff rates and value and quantity gaps (which are indicative of tariff evasion) is enhanced by corruption in both importing and exporting countries (SSA countries are referred to as importing countries, and their trade partners from outside SSA are referred to as exporting countries). Results of a series of tests show that corruption levels in both sides of the trade partnership reinforce the (positive) association between tariff rates and value and quantity gaps. This indicates that counteracting tariff evasion in SSA is a co-responsibility between trade partners.     

金融合约设计的因素分析

通过一个模型说明,隐藏信息、隐藏行动、逆向选择和风险态度是影响金融合约设计的4个主要因素,但这是在要素市场上的局部均衡分析,在此之上加入产品市场作了一般均衡分析,得出市场结构也是影响金融合约设计的因素。隐藏信息和隐藏行动的存在激励参与方签订债务合约;对于具有项目风险的逆向选择情况来说,参与方倾向于签订股权合约。     

Productivity and Turnover in the Export Market: Micro-level Evidence from the Republic of Korea and Taiwan (China)

Widespread empirical evidence indicates that exporting producershave higher productivity than nonexporters, although the reasonswhy are unclear. Some analysts argue that exporters acquireknowledge of new production methods, inputs, and product designsfrom their international contacts, and with this knowledge theyachieve higher productivity than their more insulated domesticcounterparts. Others argue that the higher productivity of exportersreflects the self-selection of more efficient producers intoa highly competitive export market. This article analyzes thelink between a producer's total factor productivity and itsdecision to participate in the export market, using manufacturingdata from the Republic of Korea and Taiwan (China). Differences are found between these two economies in the importanceof selection and learning. In Taiwan (China) transitions ofplants into and out of the export market reflect systematicvariations in productivity as predicted by self-selection models.In Korea there are no significant changes in productivity followingentry or exit from the export market that are consistent withlearning from exporting. A comparison of the two economies suggeststhat in Korea factors other than production efficiency are moreprominent determinants of the export decision.     

Fair Value and Risk Profile for Presale Contracts of Condominiums

Developers usually presell new condominiums, requiring purchasers to make down payments on a contract that allows them to purchase, at a fixed price, the finished condominiums on a later date. This presale contract is akin to a financial call option sold by the builder to the purchaser of the condo. In this paper, we value the presale contract from both the purchaser’s and the developer’s points of view. We examine the influence of various opt-out clauses, different interest rates and other factors on the value of presale contracts. We discuss the extent of risk sharing between the purchasers and the developers according to varying levels of down payments. We conclude that developers enjoy a reduction in risk without a corresponding reduction in expected profits by holding a presale.     

Effects of common factors on stock correlation networks and portfolio diversification

This study empirically investigates the effects of common factors on the connectivity of the network among stocks and on the distribution of the investment weights for stocks. The network is defined as a stock correlation network from the minimal spanning tree (MST), and portfolio is defined as an efficient portfolio from the Markowitz mean-variance (MV) optimization function (MVOF). For these research goals, we devise a method using the comparative correlation matrix (C-CM), which does not have the property of a single common factor included in the sample correlation matrix (S-CM). The results reveal that common factors clearly affect the changes of connectivity among stocks in the networks, and that their influence is much greater on stocks with many links to other stocks in the network. Further, common factors significantly affect the determination of the investment weight's distribution for stocks from the MVOF. In particular, among the common factors, a market factor plays a dominant role in both structuring the network among stocks and in constructing the well-diversified portfolio. In addition, the devised method of the C-CM without the property of the market factor in the S-CM plays a crucial role in constructing a more diversified portfolio with better out-of-sample performance in the future period. These results are robust in both the Korean and the U.S. stocks markets.     

The Effects of State Risk and Controllability Filters on Compensation Contract and Effort Choice

Surveys of business firms in the U.S.A. indicate that standard-based compensation contracts are common in practice. Analytical studies of this form of contract have suggested that under conditions of state risk, an employee's contract and effort choice are significantly affected by how pay relates to measured performance, and whether the compensation contract filters out the effects on measured performance of factors beyond the employee's control. This paper reports the results of a laboratory experiment indicating that in the presence of state risk, an individual's choice of compensation contract depends jointly on these two contract attributes and his/her risk preference as well as performance capability. The findings also indicate that actual effort is a function of the realized state, the presence/absence of a controllability filter, and the level at which the individual had expected to perform at the time of his/her contract selection. When an adverse state was realized, subjects without a controllability filter still exerted the level of effort that they had expected at contract selection, even though their marginal return to effort had been substantially reduced. On the other hand, when the controllability filter was absent, subjects who had a favourable realized state increased their effort in response to the increased marginal return to effort.     

Spread ladder swaps—an analysis of controversial interest rate derivatives

This article analyzes spread ladder swaps traded by Deutsche Bank to several medium-size companies and municipalities. The value of these contracts is highly sensitive to correlations between forward rates. For a contract that was challenged by the medium-size company Ille at the Federal Court of Germany, it turns out that the derivative was originated at a negative market value of −90,000 to −115,000 euros (depending on the number of factors used in the model). Moreover, the model correctly predicts the range for the terminal payment after an adverse development of the term structure of approximately 567,000 euros. We also investigate a product feature that limits the upside potential from the viewpoint of the customer and show that it has a substantial impact on market values. According to the judgment handed down by the court, the bank should have informed the customer about the market value of the product in light of special circumstances. This raises questions as to which products must meet this requirement. Moreover, especially for exotic contracts, market prices are mostly model prices: for spread ladder swaps, substantially different prices are obtained even when investors agree on the variance/covariance matrix but disagree on the number of factors to apply in an implementation of a model.     

Tax Motivated Income Shifting and Korean Business Groups (Chaebol)

Abstract:  This paper examines tax-induced income shifting behavior among affiliated firms in Korean business groups (chaebols). Korean corporate income tax law does not require consolidated tax returns, and business groups with a large number of affiliated member firms have incentives to shift income across member firms to reduce the overall taxes of the group. For a large number of Korean companies that are subject to external audits, we perform univariate and multivariate regression analyses on the income shifting behavior of chaebol firms compared with non-chaebol control firms. Our evidence suggests that tax-motivated income shifting activities exist among chaebol firms, and that the extent of income shifting is found to depend on its effect on non-tax cost factors such as the earnings, leverage, and cash flow rights of the controlling shareholders. We also find that income shifting is more pronounced in chaebol firms where the control-cash flow divergence is relatively large, suggesting that income shifting is affected by the controlling shareholders' opportunism. Our study provides some insights on the intra-group income shifting activities where research is limited.     

Konvergenz des Versicherungsvertragsrechts in Europa?

Insurance law has been embedded in an international context ever since. This is true not only for marine insurance and reinsurance but also for manifold other branches of the insurance sector. Against this background, the European Single Market and the intended legal harmonisation and integration are particularly important for insurance contract law. The future development of insurance law should give special attention to the question if and to what extent there is a convergence in the respective member state insurance contract laws. At the outset, the comparative analysis shows that French and German insurance contract law is governed by a “risk bearing community model” (Gefahrengemeinschaftsmodell) and that English law can be characterized as an “individual contract model” (Individualvertragsmodell). Convergence is not only found in European directives but also in reforms and reform proposals in member state law.     

个体差异、企业特征、制度保护与流动人口社会保险可及性——基于“福利三角”理论模型的实证研究

"福利三角"理论是现代社会政策研究的重要范式,其也可运用于经验研究。本文基于"福利三角"理论视角,从个体差异、企业特征、制度保障三个维度,利用南开大学"2013年流动人口管理和服务对策研究问卷调查"数据,对流动人口社会保险可及性及其影响因素进行实证研究。分析发现,在个体特征方面,受教育程度、工作年限等对流动人口人力资本具有关键影响的因素,企业性质、行业类型等企业特征,劳动合同、合同协商、工会等制度保障因素对流动人口社会保险可及性具有显著影响。在此基础上,应提高流动人口社会保险可及性。     

Hedging with Two Futures Contracts: Simplicity Pays

We propose to use two futures contracts in hedging an agricultural commodity commitment to solve either the standard delta hedge or the roll‐over issue. Most current literature on dual‐hedge strategies is based on a structured model to reduce roll‐over risk and is somehow difficult to apply for agricultural futures contracts. Instead, we propose to apply a regression based model and a naive rules of thumb for dual‐hedges which are applicable for agricultural commodities. The naive dual strategy stems from the fact that in a large sample of agricultural commodities, De Ville, Dhaene and Sercu (2008) find that GARCH‐based hedges do not perform as well as OLS‐based ones and that we can avoid estimation error with such a simple rule. Our semi‐naive hedge ratios are driven from two conditions: omitting exposure to spot price and minimising the variance of the unexpected basis effects on the portfolio values. We find that, generally, (i) rebalancing helps; (ii) the two‐contract hedging rules do better than the one‐contract counterparts, even for standard delta hedges without rolling‐over; (iii) simplicity pays: the naive rules are the best one–for corn and wheat within the two‐contract group, the semi‐naive rule systematically beats the others and GARCH performs worse than OLS for either one‐contract or two‐contract hedges and for soybeans the traditional naive rule performs nearly as well as OLS. These conclusions are based on the tests on unconditional variance ( Diebold and Mariano, 1995 ) and those on conditional risk ( Giacomini and White, 2006 ).     

A theory of delegated search for the best alternative

Searching for the best worker, a reliable supply alternative, or the most profitable investment is frequently delegated to an agent. This article develops a theory of delegated search. We show that the principal’s ability to delegate depends on the agent’s luck, her initial resources, and the contract that governs her search. With moral hazard, the optimal contract is characterized by performance deadlines with bonuses for early completion. If performance cannot be specified, the optimal search is implemented by an option‐to‐buy contract for the principal. If performance is partially specified, the optimal contract is a standard pay‐for‐performance arrangement.