Bayesian estimation of labor demand by age: theoretical consistency and an application to an input–output model

Extended input–output models require careful estimation of disaggregated consumption by households and comparable sources of labor income by sector. The latter components most often have to be estimated. The primary focus of this paper is to produce labor demand disaggregated by workers’ age. The results are evaluated through considerations of its consistency with a static labor demand model restricted with theoretical requirements. A Bayesian approach is used for more straightforward imposition of regularity conditions. The Bayesian model confirms elastic labor demand for youth workers, which is consistent with what past studies find. Additionally, to explore the effects of changes in age structure on a regional economy, the estimated age-group-specific labor demand model is integrated into a regional input–output model. The integrated model suggests that ceteris paribus ageing population contributes to lowering aggregate economic multipliers due to the rapidly growing number of elderly workers who earn less than younger workers.     

Using input–output models to estimate sectoral effects of carbon tax policy: Applications of the NGFS scenarios

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has engaged in scenario analysis that estimates a $200/ton carbon tax would be required to transition to net zero carbon by 2050. Using a $200/ton carbon tax as a base, this paper uses input–output (IO) modeling to generate price and revenue effects of a carbon tax. Results from these models, which can only be interpreted as the short-run, upper-bound effects of the carbon tax policy, imply that in response to a $200/ton tax on CO₂e emissions, carbon-intensive industries, such as agriculture, extraction, transportation, utilities, and chemicals, may experience price increases in the range of 10-30 percent. Other industries will also experience price increases, but to a lesser degree, due to increased input costs associated with the tax. In addition, modeling results also suggest that industries facing elastic pricing regimes may face similar-sized declines in revenues as a consequence of the carbon tax. Rank-ordered impact results from these models can be utilized by bank supervisors and firms to adequately plan for sectoral-level transition risk within their lending and/or investment portfolios.     

A general weighted least squares approach for the projection of input–output tables

In the context of input–output analysis, it is often necessary to update a matrix for a date when only the sum of its columns and rows are known. This projection problem is quite similar to temporal disaggregation. I borrow from this literature a class of solutions for which the exact result can be implemented without iteration. These solutions minimize the adjustment made to the out-of-date matrix and as such can be said optimal according to a chosen criteria. The framework I expose is flexible enough to encompass many of the existing methods and develop new ones. I propose one of such methods to project a matrix between two given benchmarks. I exemplify the technique on 35 years of input–output tables for France and show in particular that the issue of negative cells can be avoided.     

The productivity performance of Irish dairy farms 1984–2000: a multiple output distance function approach

This study measures productivity growth on Irish dairy farms over the period 1984–2000. A total factor productivity index is constructed for the dairy system and is decomposed into technical change, efficiency change, and changes in scale efficiency. This is achieved by estimating a stochastic output distance function model of the production technology in use on Irish dairy farms. Overall, productivity on Irish dairy farms grew by 1.2% per annum over the sample period.

Choosing among alternative technologies: conditions for assuring the feasibility of an input–output database or scenario

The conceptual reach of the basic input–output modeling framework is substantially extended by new models that incorporate the economic logic of comparative advantage as the basis for the endogenous choice among alternative production technologies. This paper establishes procedures that define the conditions under which the database used for scenario analysis in this extended framework assures the existence of an economically feasible solution. We provide a criterion for structural feasibility, the property established by the Hawkins–Simon condition for the basic input–output model, and introduce a criterion for scale feasibility. The logic underlying the tests is illustrated by numerical examples based on the Rectangular Choice-of-Technology model and database. These procedures can be particularly useful for incorporating engineering and other technical sources of information into multi-regional input–output databases; they can also provide substantial underlying detail about individual technologies, sectors, and factors of production for both feasible and infeasible scenarios.     

On the financial balance of input–output constructs: revisiting an axiomatic evaluation

Financial balance is fundamental to input–output (IO) analysis, and consequently the respect of this balance is one of the dominant criteria in evaluating IO constructs. Kop Jansen, and ten Raa [(1990) The Choice of Model in the Construction of Input–Output Coefficients Matrices. International Economic Review 31, 213] proved that the byproduct-technology construct (BTC) and the industry-technology construct (ITC) do not generally conserve financial balance. In contrast, Majeau-Bettez et al. [(2016) When do Allocations and Constructs Respect Material, Energy, Financial, and Production Balances in LCA and EEIO? Journal of Industrial Ecology 20, 67–84] demonstrated that the BTC necessarily respects financial balance and that the ITC is always financially balanced when applied to data recorded in monetary units. The present article resolves this paradox.     

To RAS or not to RAS? What is the difference in outcomes in multi-regional input–output models?

The global resource accounting model (GRAM), which is based on OECD input–output and bilateral trade data, is a multi-regional input–output model covering 53 countries and 2 regions. What differentiates GRAM from other state-of-the-art models in this field is that it does not use a matrix balancing technique, such as RAS, after the initial construction of the global intermediate coefficient and final demand matrices. Instead, it reproduces prescribed intermediate and final demand, and determines value added residually. This choice was made to alter the original data as little as possible and keep the calculations traceable. This simpler solution technique might, however, yield different results. This paper aims at identifying the difference between the current solution of GRAM and the solution of a RASed version of GRAM, thus contributing to the assessment of currently used methodologies in this research field. The short conclusion is that, even though some differences during the calculations are present, the calculated output (production) matrix does not differ substantially. The results show that larger differences are brought about by poor assumptions regarding missing or conflicting data rather than by applying or not applying a RAS procedure to the constructed global matrices.     

To lead or to wait? An application to internationalization strategies under demand uncertainty

We examine the exports versus foreign direct investment (FDI) decision under demand uncertainty for an asymmetric cost duopoly. One of the firms can lead entry before demand realization or retain flexibility enjoying an informational advantage. When the time value of information is small and for sufficiently low investment costs, follow‐the‐leader behavior in FDI arises. Relatively high investment (fixed) costs result in follow‐the‐leader exporting behavior. When the time value of information becomes significant, the potential leader will opt for a wait‐and‐see strategy. For intermediate values of investment costs, the efficient firm invests, while the rival chooses to export.     

Do we go shopping downtown or in the ‘burbs?

We combine spatial and monopolistic competition to study market interactions between downtown retailers and an outlying shopping mall. Consumers shop at either one marketplace or at both, and buy each variety in volume. The market solution stems from the interplay between the market expansion effect generated by consumers seeking more opportunities, and the competition effect. Firms’ profits increase (decrease) with the entry of local competitors when the former (latter) dominates. Downtown retailers vanish swiftly when the mall is large. A predatory but efficient mall need not be regulated, whereas the regulator must restrict the size of a mall accommodating downtown retailers.     

50 Years of research on organizing the purchasing function: Do we need any more?

Research on organizing the purchasing function has seen the rise and fall of different topics, for example the buying centre. And although the increasingly strategic role of purchasing still possesses practical challenges to its effective organizational setup, one has to question whether, after 50 years, there really is a need for more research in this specific domain.As starting point to answer the question, 212 articles published since 1962 are reviewed to provide a comprehensive overview of existing insights. Via content analysis, we inductively establish 12 specific research areas dealing with distinct aspects of purchasing organization.Then the need for further research is assessed by combining those findings with relevant business trends that induce practical challenges in each research area and, consequently, also the need for future research. We conclude that almost all research areas will remain relevant in the future, but need an adjustment of their focus.     

Is privatization related to corruption? An empirical analysis of European countries

This study analyses the relationship between privatization and corruption in Europe over the period 1995 to 2013, taking into account the problems surrounding the issue of causality. There have been researches into the role of privatization in reducing corruption, but decisions about privatization itself are made by politicians, and so corruption could also affect decision making about privatizations. The empirical findings suggest that perceived corruption decreases as the number of privatization transactions increases, but the effect is contrary when privatizations are a more important in terms of annual revenues. Furthermore, our results indicate that overall, privatizations carried out since the early 1980s have not been effective in reducing corruption in Europe. Indeed, privatizations reforms are more carried out in the less corrupt countries.     

Effects of international trade on domestic employment: an application of a global multiregional input–output supermultiplier model (1995–2011)

The effects on domestic employment of international trade and the globalisation of supply chains are as politically controversial as they are empirically inconclusive. To estimate them we extend the global multiregional input–output framework by endogenising demand for both domestic and imported intermediates, private business investment and household non-durable consumption – or equivalently, we generalise the supermultiplier formula. The model accounts, in particular, for the employment consequences of economic integration and those channelled through integration. We estimate these foreign sector effects alongside those of domestic origin using a recursive hierarchical structural decomposition analysis and statistics from the World Input–Output Database and National Accounts that cover years 1995–2011. Focusing on Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the UK, the US, Japan and China we answer the following questions: To what extent did international linkages deriving from international trade affect domestic employment? Did domestic employment benefit from economic integration?     

An input–output virtual laboratory in practice – survey of uptake,usage and applications of the first operational IELab

ABSTRACT

The Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory (IELab) is a collaborative cloud-computing platform for compiling large-scale, high-resolution, enviro-socio-economic accounts based on multi-region input–output tables and for conducting integrated sustainability assessment projects. These include, for example, assessments of biofuels and low-carbon construction materials or high-resolution waste modelling. This contribution provides a structured review of IELab applications that were published in either peer-reviewed journal papers or in the form of conference proceedings. The main research question posed is ‘What are the specific features of IELab that were used in the research and could the research have happened without them?’ It is investigated whether the IELab has actually and truly enabled new research. A detailed analysis of IELab characteristics and their usage is presented. The results can help with the design of new research projects and inform existing and prospective users of the IELab about the options for academic research and practical applications.     

Do services hold the key to an improved UK trade performance?

The UK has established a central role in the global market for trade in services, ranking second to the US in terms of its share of global exports. Our modelling finds that the key factor behind the UK's success is that its exports are focused on the markets where demand has been growing quickest. This represents a notable contrast with research on UK goods exports, which has found that the geographical focus of goods exports has been the main reason for the UK's persistent underperformance. The global financial crisis caused significant damage to the UK's export performance, particularly to the key financial sector which accounts for a quarter of UK services exports and almost two‐fifths of the UK's surplus on services trade. However, the UK's export performance is on the mend and we expect it to retain its position as a key global player in the market for services over the coming five years.     

To Disclose or Not to Disclose? An Investigation of the Antecedents and Effects of Open Book Accounting

Open book accounting (OBA) is the regular disclosure of management accounting information beyond corporate borders. Prior contributions have mainly concentrated on identifying its antecedents in individual or small numbers of organizations with exploratory cases. My paper responds to the call to investigate OBA on a wider empirical basis and focuses simultaneously on the explanatory variables of OBA and its influence on both financial and non-financial performance. I thus also explore the mediating role of OBA in linking key antecedents and performance within a unified theoretical framework. I empirically test my model using survey data from a sample of European companies, which are then analyzed through structural equation modeling. My findings indicate that the extent of OBA use is explained by a firm’s willingness to work together with its counterparts in the long run, that is, a relational factor, and the presence of sophisticated cost accounting systems, that is, a technical prerequisite. My evidence also suggests a positive association between OBA and firm performance. Additionally, I find that OBA is a partial mediator that explains how a firm’s long-term commitment to its external partners and the sophistication of its cost accounting system may become associated with performance.     

How Functional is the Eurozone? An Index of European Economic Integration Through the Single Currency

This article is a step towards empirically assessing how close the Eurozone is to becoming an ‘optimal currency area’, as originally defined by Mundell ( 1961 ). For this purpose we have compiled ten indicators, organised them in four partial indices, and summarised them in an overall indicator of ‘optimality’. The resulting picture is mixed, with zone optimality not increasing when circumstances were favourable but the trend towards integration returning after the 2008–14 crisis. The suggestion is that disintegration during the crisis, rather than being evidence of failure of the Eurozone when the going was tough, showed a self‐healing mechanism at work. However, our measurements and indices show that optimality is much further away than it was in 1999, when the euro was launched.     

The wisdom of the few or the wisdom of the many? An indirect test of the marginal trader hypothesis

The Marginal Trader Hypothesis (Forsythe et al. 1992, in American Economic Review 82(5): 1142–1161) posits that a small group of well-informed traders keep an asset’s market price equal to its fundamental value. Forsythe et al. base this claim on evidence from U.S. presidential prediction markets. We test the Marginal Trader Hypothesis by examining a decision task that precludes marginal traders. Specifically, students are asked to predict the class average for a given exam. We show that performance on our task is similar to that reported for the Iowa Electronic Markets, and that accuracy is unrelated to academic performance and does not correlate across tasks.     

Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large‐scale mixture innovation models

We propose a straightforward algorithm to estimate large Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions with mixture innovation components for each coefficient in the system. The computational burden becomes manageable by approximating the mixture indicators driving the time‐variation in the coefficients with a latent threshold process that depends on the absolute size of the shocks. Two applications illustrate the merits of our approach. First, we forecast the US term structure of interest rates and demonstrate forecast gains relative to benchmark models. Second, we apply our approach to US macroeconomic data and find significant evidence for time‐varying effects of a monetary policy tightening.     

Driver behaviour and business outcomes: An alternative approach to the psychology of the owner–manager

Previous psychological approaches to the study of owner–managers are reviewed and an alternative model based on the transactional analysis concept of Drivers is put forward. This model is tested out via a series of interviews and observations of 20 owner–managers of small and medium–sized businesses based in the North East of England. The relationship between driver behaviour and business performance is explored and the negative consequences of driver behaviour for the business are identified. Driver behaviour is also viewed as potentially beneficial and the inherent positive aspects of driver behaviour are proposed as the opposite end of a continuum of behaviours which are at the heart of business success. On a methodological level the need for an approach grounded in the owner–managers behaviour is confirmed.