Analysts’ estimates of the cost of equity capital

We explore a large sample of analysts' estimates of the cost of equity capital (CoE) to evaluate their usefulness as expected return proxies (ERP). We find that the CoE estimates are significantly related to a firm's beta, size, book-to-market ratio, leverage, and idiosyncratic volatility but not other risk proxies. Even after controlling for the popular return predictors, the CoE estimates incrementally predict future stock returns. This predictive ability is better explained as the CoE estimates containing ERP information rather than reflecting stock mispricing. When evaluated against traditional ERPs, including the implied costs of capital, the CoE estimates are found to be the least noisy. Finally, we document CoE responses around earnings announcements, demonstrating their usefulness to study discount-rate reactions of market participants. We conclude that analysts' CoE estimates are meaningful ERPs that can be fruitfully employed in a variety of asset pricing contexts.     

Analysts’ earnings forecast errors and cost of equity capital estimates

This study investigates the relation between analysts’ forecast errors and cost of equity capital estimates implied from analysts’ earnings forecasts and price. My analysis predicts and removes forecast errors from analysts’ earnings forecasts on an out-of-sample basis and then uses these adjusted analysts’ forecasts to reverse-engineer cost of equity capital estimates. While the correction for predictable analysts’ forecast errors meaningfully lowers each of three firm-level implied COEC estimates employed in this study and commonly used in the literature, I do not find that this correction improves their association with realized returns.     

Does international experience of managers bring financing benefits? Evidence from the cost of equity capital

Using a sample of Chinese firms, this study examines whether and how managers’ overseas experience affects a firm’s cost of equity capital. We document a negative association between managers’ overseas experience and the cost of equity capital. Mechanism analyses indicate that companies with returnee managers have better information quality and lower systematic risk; more institutional investors, media reports, and analysts following; and higher stock liquidity, all of which lead to a lower cost of equity capital. Further analyses show that chief executive officers (CEOs) with foreign experience have a more significant impact on the cost of capital than non-CEO managers with foreign experience and that managers’ overseas work experience has a more significant impact on the cost of capital than their overseas education. We also find that the impact of managers’ overseas experience is more pronounced when that experience is gained in common law countries compared to code law countries but weaker for state-owned enterprises and firms that are cross-listed or have foreign institutional investors. Overall, the results suggest that managers’ knowledge, skills, and ethical values imprinted from overseas experience, plus eyeball effects from media and analyst attention, can reduce the cost of equity capital.     

The impact of SEC investigations and accounting and auditing enforcement releases on firms’ cost of equity capital

I study the impact of an SEC investigation (as captured by accounting and auditing enforcement releases) on a firm’s cost of equity capital. AAERs are often used in accounting literature as a proxy for fraudulent financial reporting. Fraudulent financial reporting should lead to an increase in cost of equity capital as a firm’s future cash flows become less certain. Overall, this study provides evidence of changes in cost of equity capital for firms targeted by an SEC AAER on the date the investigation is first made public.     

Investors’ perception of corporate governance: a spillover effect of Taiwan corporate scandals

The discovery of a series of corporate scandals in Taiwan between 16 June and 15 September 2004 offers a unique opportunity to investigate the perceptions of investors on the value of corporate governance, whilst avoiding any interactions with other exogenous factors such as the lower expected returns on all firms’ investment opportunities during the East Asian or Global financial crises. The main line of reasoning in this study is that at times when news of scandals flows into the market, the perceptions of certain type of investors will lead to a change in their trading habits for non-scandal portfolios. With a comprehensive analysis of order and trade data for all investors identified by investor code, it is found that a substantial proportion of investors ceased trading altogether during the scandal period. This response was particularly discernible among small and medium individuals, despite the fact that the firms in these portfolios were not associated with the scandals. We further examine the ordering behavior of those investors who still traded in the market. It shows that small individual investors began to enter the market more passively, regardless of whether the firms’ ownership structure. And they consistently underperformed in both ownership-structure portfolios. However, foreign institutions and large individuals place more aggressive orders for stocks in firms with strong cash-flow rights leverage and perform particularly well in those portfolios.     

Does information risk affect the implied cost of equity capital? An analysis of PIN and adjusted PIN

Using a unique dataset of Korean listed companies for which trade initiators are correctly identifiable, we estimate bias-free PIN (probability of informed trading) that is no longer subject to the trade misspecification problem and test whether it is related to expected returns. Unlike prior studies, we find that bias-free AdjPIN, the adjusted PIN purged of a liquidity component, is positively related to implied cost of equity. Our findings suggest that the errors in PIN variables hamper a proper identification of PIN pricing in prior studies.     

Multiple corporate governance attributes and the cost of capital – Evidence from Germany

This paper investigates the extent to which corporate governance affects the cost of debt and equity capital of German exchange-listed companies. I examine corporate governance along three dimensions: financial information quality, ownership structure and board structure. The results suggest that firms with high levels of financial transparency and bonus compensations face lower cost of equity. In addition, block ownership is negatively related to firms' cost of equity when the blockholders are other firms, managers or founding-family members. Consistent with the conjecture that agency costs increase with firm size, I find significant cost of debt effects only in the largest German companies. Here, the creditors demand lower cost of debt from firms with block ownerships held by corporations or banks. My findings demonstrate that a uniform set of governance attributes is unlikely to satisfy suppliers of debt and equity capital equally.     

Do anti-bribery laws reduce the cost of equity? Evidence from the UK Bribery Act 2010

We examine the impact of the UK Bribery Act 2010 on the implied cost of equity. We find a significant reduction in the cost of equity amongst UK firms with high bribery exposure after the passage of the Bribery Act. We further show that the Bribery Act improves internal control systems and increases stock liquidity of firms with high bribery exposure. Our results suggest that more stringent anti-bribery regulations are not always bad for the firm.     

Investors’ Limited Attention: Evidence from REITs

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This paper examines the degree to which the market prices of publicly traded firms reflect and respond to new information regarding the economic...     

Does corporate social responsibility affect the cost of capital?

We examine the effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the cost of equity capital for a large sample of US firms. Using several approaches to estimate firms’ ex ante cost of equity, we find that firms with better CSR scores exhibit cheaper equity financing. In particular, our findings suggest that investment in improving responsible employee relations, environmental policies, and product strategies contributes substantially to reducing firms’ cost of equity. Our results also show that participation in two “sin” industries, namely, tobacco and nuclear power, increases firms’ cost of equity. These findings support arguments in the literature that firms with socially responsible practices have higher valuation and lower risk.     

Investors’ heterogeneous beliefs and the impact of sovereign credit ratings in foreign exchange and equity markets

We propose a model in which sovereign credit news from multiple rating agencies interacts with market heterogeneity. The model illustrates that the first messenger discloses new information while additional messengers play an important role of coordinating heterogeneous beliefs. Empirical investigations based on sovereign credit ratings, foreign exchange and equity markets confirm that rating news coordinates investors’ beliefs. Sovereign credit rating news from both types of messenger induces a significant impact on exchange rates and stock indices. Volatility measures increase in response to news from the first messenger while ex-post volatility reduces following news from an additional messenger.     

Investors’ Fear and Herding Behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

This article analyzes the influence of investors’ fear on their investment behavior in the Taiwan stock market. This study used the volatility index (VIX) as a barometer of investors’ fear. Our results show that herding behavior increases with the VIX; that is, herding behavior is encouraged by an increase in investors’ fear. Moreover, our results demonstrate that investors react more quickly to bad news than to good news when their fear increases, supporting the hypothesis of the presence of an asymmetric reaction to news. However, investors react more quickly to good news when their fear decreases, indicating an inverse asymmetric reaction. In addition, our empirical results reveal that herding behavior tends to exist on days with a large trading volume.     

Investments in human capital: The evidence from China’s new rural pension scheme

Human capital accumulation is a radical cure for income inequality and poverty issues in the process of economic development. In addition to exploring the impact of education-related policies on human capital investment, many scholars have begun to pay attention to the spillover effect of non-education policies on human capital investment behaviors. In this paper, we investigate whether the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) initiative has had an impact on human capital investment behavior in rural China. We use a China Family Panel Studies sample and apply propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methodologies to test for the causal effects of this reform initiative. The results show that NRPS has had a positive effect on households’ human capital investments. In particular, education expenditures on children aged zero to 16 years increased substantially as a result of NRPS, with a more substantial causal effect for girls and in wealthier provinces. The results should be of great interest to academicians and policymakers interested in public policy and development.     

Farmers’ crop insurance perception and participation decisions: empirical evidence from Hunan,China

The measurement of risk perception and risk attitudes, and their link to actual risk behaviors have been extensively discussed. However, the potential impact of perception of risk management instruments on the decision to use those instruments has rarely been addressed. This article hypothesizes that the degree of perception of insurance contracts and participation decisions could have substantial mutual influence depending on the development of the market. An empirical work is carried out based on a survey of data for paddy rice farmers in Hunan Province, China. It shows that the sampled farmers’ crop insurance perception was surprisingly low despite years of pilot programs and tens of billions of expenditure in government subsidies. The result of simultaneous equations model indicates that crop insurance perception and participation are simultaneously determined and mutually improving. Moreover, empirical evidence indicates that the impact of crop insurance participation on perception is slightly stronger than that of perception on participation, and thus provides weak evidence of a ‘learning-by-doing’ stage in China at present. Together with evidence of substantial local disparities in perception, implications for the Chinese government in further cultivating the crop and rural insurance market are discussed.     

What's your real cost of capital?

In valuing any investment project or corporate acquisition, executives must decide what discount rate to use in their estimates of future cash flows. The traditional approach is to apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which has remained fundamentally unchanged for 40 years. But the formula--in particular, its beta element--has long been a source of frustration. In fact, corporate executives and investment bankers routinely fudge their CAPM estimates, say the authors, because experience and intuition tell them the model produces inappropriate discount rates. CAPM has three main problems: First, beta is a measure of both a stock's correlation and its volatility; second, beta is based on historical data; and third, CAPM rates don't take into account the term of the investment. These factors together result in discount rates that defy common sense. As an alternative to CAPM and its beta element, the authors developed a forward-looking approach to calculating a company's cost of capital, the market-derived capital pricing model (MCPM). It does not incorporate any measure of historical stock-to-market correlation, relying instead on estimates of future volatility derived from the options market. This is helpful since investor expectations from the options market are built into a company's current stock price. Using GE as an example, the authors give step-by-step instructions for how to calculate discount rates with MCPM. They also offer evidence from a range of industries to show that MCPM's discount rates are more realistic--especially from the corporate investor's perspective--than are CAPM's.     

State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?

We propose a novel Bayesian framework to incorporate uncertainty about the state of the market. Among others, one advantage of the framework is the ability to model a large collection of time-varying parameters simultaneously. When we apply the framework to estimate the cost of equity we find economically significant effects of state uncertainty. A state-independent pricing model overestimates the cost of equity by about 4% per annum for a utility firm and by as much as 3% for industries. We also observe that the expected return, volatility, risk loading, and pricing error all display state-dependent dynamics that coincide with the business cycle. More interestingly, the forecasted market and Fama–French factor risk premiums can predict the future real GDP growth rate even though the model does not use any macroeconomic variables, which suggests that the proposed Bayesian framework captures the state-dependent dynamics well.     

Does the market discipline banks? New evidence from regulatory capital mix

While bank capital requirements permit a bank to freely substitute between equity and subordinated debt, lenders and investors view debt and equity as imperfect substitutes. It follows that, after controlling for the level of regulatory capital, the mix of debt in capital isolates the role that the market plays in disciplining banks. I document that the mix of debt in capital affects bank behavior, but only when investors can impose real constraints. In particular, the mix of debt reduces the probability of failure and future distress for BHC-affiliated institutions (where the investor has control rights through an equity position) and for stand-alone banks before the Basel Accord (when debt issues included restrictive covenants). However, substituting equity for subordinated debt at the bank holding company level or in stand-alone banks since the Basel Accord (where the investor has few protections) only increases the probability of distress and failure.     

Does bank loan supply affect the supply of equity capital? Evidence from new share issuance and withdrawal

We examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in the aggregate supply of bank loans influence the supply of new equity capital. Using residual lending standards as a clean measure of aggregate loan supply and a VAR framework to aid identification, we find that a one-standard-deviation shock to lending standards results in 15% fewer IPOs. Shocks elicit strong responses from IPO-firms that are highly dependent on external capital and increase the number of withdrawals, strengthening the interpretation that the above is driven by changes in the supply of equity. Our results suggest that credit conditions are important to a well-functioning IPO market.