住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险管理研究

从现代金融和风险管理角度看,住房抵押贷款提前还贷对商业银行是一种期权性风险,对其收取违约金并非国际惯例,也并不是有效的风险补偿方式。商业银行应适应市场竞争需要,接受风险转嫁并提供风险管理服务,运用风险定价技术在按揭交易价格中对提前还贷风险进行补偿。对于已承担的风险,商业银行应构建抵押贷款提前还贷的数据库,通过表内对冲和市场对冲,推出多样化的住房抵押贷款方式,积极推进住房抵押贷款证券化,从而最终增强银行的盈利来源和核心竞争力。     

住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险管理研究

从现代金融和风险管理角度看,住房抵押贷款提前还贷对商业银行是一种期权性风险,对其收取违约金并非国际惯例,也并不是有效的风险补偿方式。商业银行应适应市场竞争需要,接受风险转嫁并提供风险管理服务,运用风险定价技术在按揭交易价格中对提前还贷风险进行补偿。对于已承担的风险,商业银行应构建抵押贷款提前还贷的数据库,通过表内对冲和市场对冲,推出多样化的住房抵押贷款方式,积极推进住房抵押贷款证券化,从而最终增强银行的盈利来源和核心竞争力。     

住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险管理研究

从现代金融和风险管理角度看,住房抵押贷款提前还贷对商业银行是一种期权性风险,对其收取违约金并非国际惯例,也并不是有效的风险补偿方式.商业银行应适应市场竞争需要,接受风险转嫁并提供风险管理服务,运用风险定价技术在按揭交易价格中对提前还贷风险进行补偿.对于已承担的风险,商业银行应构建抵押贷款提前还贷的数据库,通过表内对冲和市场对冲,推出多样化的住房抵押贷款方式,积极推进住房抵押贷款证券化,从而最终增强银行的盈利来源和核心竞争力.     

住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险管理研究

从现代金融和风险管理角度看,住房抵押贷款提前还贷对商业银行是一种期权性风险,对其收取违约金并非国际惯例,也并不是有效的风险补偿方式。商业银行应接受风险转嫁并提供风险管理服务,运用风险定价技术在按揭交易价格中对提前还贷风险进行补偿。对于已承担的风险,商业银行应构建抵押贷款提前还贷的数据库,通过表内对冲和市场对冲,推出多样化的住房抵押贷款方式,积极推进住房抵押贷款证券化,从而最终增强银行的盈利来源和核心竞争力。     

奇业银行住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险管理研究

自去年3月央行加息以来．各大商业银行的房贷业务明显萎缩．提前还贷者有增无减．据上海银监局的数据显示,去年7月上海中资商业银行自营性房地产贷款和个人住房贷款呈负增长态势．分别比上月减少4．61亿元和8．86亿元。而8月房贷余额更是减少了18亿元。不仅如此．还有不少人选择了提前还贷．一项调查表明．自加息后．在500个购房者里有67％的人抱着“能少还一点是一点”的心态准备在有条件的时候提前还贷．住房抵押贷款提前还款．指借款者在还款期内提前偿还部分或全部借款余额的行为。商业银行业务发展到一定阶段后必然要出现的抵押贷款提前还款现象．出于维护自身经济利益的需要．银行只能采取积极主动的态度去研究它的发生机理．在理论分析和历史数据的基础上找出决定因素．建立提前还贷模型，进行有效地预测和防范．从而降低风险。     

住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险分析及管理

住房抵押贷款在国内银行的资产中正占据着越来越重要的地位。与此同时，住房贷款的提前还贷行为也开始困扰银行业的经营。本文分析了提前还贷给银行带来的不利影响，指出：掌握提前还贷规律，准确预测提前偿付比率，合理确定住房贷款的利率，在必要情况下适当收取提前还贷的违约金，住房贷款证券化及计提提前还贷损失准备金，是管理提前还贷风险的有效做法。     

我国住房抵押贷款证券化的提前偿还风险分析与防范

住房抵押贷款证券化过程中面临各种风险,其中最主要的是提前偿还风险。美国次贷危机的爆发,让我们更加认识到对提前偿还风险管理的重要性。本文从提前偿还风险造成的不良影响出发,分析了度量提前偿还风险的基本模型,并在此基础上对影响我国早偿风险的因素进行分析,提出了基于我国国情的风险度量模型,最后提出了提前偿还风险管理方法。     

我国住房抵押贷款证券化提前偿还风险分析与对策研究

随着邮政储蓄银行的最新住房抵押贷款资产证券化产品“邮元2014年第一期”的发行,沉寂了7年之久的国内住房抵押贷款证券化试点重新启动了.国内一贯将住房抵押贷款视为优质资产,但我们也不能忽视其风险,尤其不能忽视住房抵押贷款变动对以其为基础的MBS的影响.本文以“建元2005-1”MBS产品为研究对象,着重分析了基础资产提前偿还风险对MBS类产品的影响.以基础资产的提前偿付率及其趋势为基础建立量化分析模型,并结合国内实际情况对MBS产品提前偿付风险的预防提出了一些建议.     

我国住房抵押贷款证券化提前偿付风险研究——以建元2007-1为例

住房抵押贷款证券化(MBS)是金融衍生工具之一。尽管MBS改善了银行资本结构并提高了资本市场流动性,但是和其他金融衍生工具一样,它也面临一定的风险。相较于违约风险和利率风险等,提前偿付风险成为住房抵押贷款证券化过程中的主要风险。本文探讨了MBS中存在的提前偿付风险,并以建元2007-1 MBS为研究对象,重点研究了其风险水平及影响因素。通过对建元2007-1 MBS数据的分析和建模,我们发现该产品的提前偿付率较高,这主要是由于经济环境、房地产价格、季节等因素的影响。为了防范提前偿付风险,本文建议加强信息披露、完善市场公开、建立专业化评级机构、完善MBS市场监管体系及配套制度、研究设立房贷事业部和相关政策性金融机构,以促进经济增长、刺激居民消费投资等。这些建议有助于降低提前偿付风险,确保MBS的稳健发展。     

个人住房按揭贷款的银行风险管理

本文以我国个人住房按揭贷款业的现状为基础,考察发达国家和地区的历史事件与做法,分析不同因素产生的个人住房按揭贷款业务的银行风险,并提出相应的管理建议。     

警惕个人住房贷款业务中的操作风险

信用风险和市场风险早已为人们熟识,操作风险作为一种被忽视的风险类型正日益受到重视.个人住房贷款业务作为当前银行资产业务的新支柱得到了蓬勃发展.这一正在成长的新业务,面临不少新的风险.本文试图对个人住房贷款业务中隐含的操作风险进行剖析,并探讨如何采取有效的措施加以防范.     

On stock-based loans

We investigate the equilibrium interest rate charges on non-recourse and recourse loans secured by stock. In such loans, the client retains the option to prepay and recover the collateral stock. We adopt a structural model of the firm where debt levels, with endogenous bankruptcy, affect equity dynamics. Complicating matters, the link between total equity and the price of a share of stock that forms the collateral depends on the extent of dilutions and buybacks that occur. For levered firms, due to dilution in bad states of nature, stock prices typically fall faster than equity values; and for firms that engage in buybacks in good states of nature, stock prices will rise faster than equity values. Banks that ignore these features underestimate the equilibrium interest rate charge on stock-based loans. We provide an analysis of individual stock-based loans and their portfolio characteristics, the latter of which can be used by banks to ascertain capital requirements.     

如何防范贷款风险

记者:您参与过许多项目融资和贸易融资,能否谈一下对这两者的理解?在融资过程中,这两者各有什么不同和侧重点?     

Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans

A bank that lends money to a household faces two types of risk. Frequently mentioned is the risk of default. Seldom referred to is the risk of an early redemption of the loan – leading to dormancy. In this paper, we model the transition of consumer loans from an active to a dormant state. To this end, we use data on 4786 individuals who were granted credit by a Swedish lending institution between September 1993 and August 1995 and estimate a semi-parametric duration model. We analyze the factors that determine the time to maturity on consumer loans and investigate the ability of the model to match the maturities observed in the data. Moreover, we derive the distribution of conditional expected durations of loans and show how a loan application can be evaluated by calculating its expected profit.     

A model for determining mispricing of sovereign risk loans

Banks are known to use non-price terms in arriving at an effective loan rate. We demonstrate that international commercial banks use similar ‘credit rationing’ terms in pricing medium-term sovereign debt. Specifically, bankers adjust the loan rate, the maturity, and grace period in order to accommodate borrowers, specific needs while maintaining a fair return for the risk of the loan. These taken together comprise an all-in effective loan rate. We present a unique model using two stage least squares, which can easily be used to determine loan mispricing. The model is demonstrated using simulated loan pricing data.     

房地产贷款总体风险可控

在房地产“调控将长期持续”预期压力下,近期,开发商资金吃紧,国内的一些大中型城市出现了楼市降价的松动迹象。在多重压力之下,房地产风险的广度和深度在进一步加强。在楼市调控的敏感时期,我国银行业当前风险防控能力如何？是否为楼市的调整变动做好风险准备了呢？     

Country risk analysis: The demand and supply of sovereign loans

Tis paper develops a general model of the demand and supply of loans made to the public sector of a third-world country. Its objective is to identify the critical variables of demand and supply and to discuss the current international financial situation within this framework. On the supply side, these loans are treated as part of an optimal portfolio decision while the demand for external loans by a lesser developed country is based on a life-cycle hypothesis of development. After conditions for market equilibrium are established, credit rationing, instability, and default probabilities are discussed.     

Effects of subsidized home loans on housing decisions and efficiency in Japan: Tradeoff between quality and quantity

First, we will present a microeconomic model of Japanese housing demand based on the Japanese home financing system. The focus of the model will be on the tradeoff between housing quality and quantity. We will derive the owner-occupied housing user cost of capital for several different subsamples. The unique feature of the model is the use of nonlinear budget constraints. Next, we will try reduced form estimation based on a composite housing demand model and a characteristic housing demand model. Estimation results indicate that those who do not receive funds from the JHCL are more price-elastic and more income-elastic for composite housing demand and floor demand. Recipients of JHLC funds have more price-elastic demand for quality as they compensate for institutional constraints on their selection of floor space. Finally, we will estimate the effect on housing demand if JHLC loan interest rates are not classified by the size of a house but are adjusted to the private loan rate and if the JHLC lends funds based on the market value of the house. We will also calculate the excess burden for each household created by the present JHLC home financing policy. Households distort their housing consumption by overconsuming quantity and underconsuming quality.     

On a class of loans with a systematic amortisation schedule

Abstract

In this paper we show that a single set of formulas will characterise a wide range of standard loans. This makes it possible to describe these loans in a compact manner and facilitates the design of computer programs calculating their characteristics. The characterisation includes the entire amortisation schedule before and after tax and the duration and convexity measures.