Long-run returns following open market share repurchases

Past studies find abnormal returns to buying after repurchase program announcements. We analyze the profitability of trading after both program announcements and individual repurchase trade publication using different trading strategies – market and limit orders. The analysis of trades is possible because of a unique Canadian data set. The highest abnormal returns are earned by companies on their own repurchase trades which benefits the non-tendering shareholders. For the public investor, we find no strategies that, in practice, would earn abnormal returns to buying after program announcements. However, there is qualified evidence of abnormal returns to a limit order strategy following publication of individual repurchase trades.     

Managers' Trading Around Stock Repurchases

We analyze personal open market trades by managers around stock repurchases by tender offer. With the exception of Dutch auction offers, managers trade their firm's shares prior to repurchase announcements as though repurchases convey favorable inside information to outsiders. Prior to fixed price repurchase offers that do not follow takeover-related events, managers increase their buying and reduce their selling of their firm's shares. Prior to repurchases that follow takeover-related events, only a decrease in selling is found. No abnormal trading precedes Dutch auction repurchase offers.     

Insider Trading after Repurchase Tender Offer Announcements: Timing versus Informed Trading

Abnormally high net insider selling is commonly observed after repurchase tender offer (RTO) announcements although, on average, firms experience positive abnormal returns in the years after the repurchases. We explore two potential explanations: liquidity trade timing and informed trading. Consistent with the notion that fixed price RTOs are more likely than Dutch-auction RTOs to signal undervaluation, the results suggest that insider selling after fixed price RTO announcements are driven largely by insiders who time their trades with the repurchase announcements. In contrast, selling after Dutch-auction RTOs seems to be driven primarily by informed traders who exploit mispricing associated with the repurchase announcements.     

Are corporate managers savvy about their stock price? Evidence from insider trading after earnings announcements

We find that insiders trade as if they exploit market underreaction to earnings news, buying (selling) after good (bad) earnings announcements when the price reaction to the announcement is low (high). We also find that insider trades attributable to public information about earnings and the price reaction generate abnormal returns. By demonstrating that managers spot market underreaction to earnings news, our results imply that managers are savvy about their company’s stock price.     

On the Timing and Execution of Open Market Repurchases

Little is known about the timing and execution of open marketrepurchases. U.S. firms are under no obligation to disclosewhen they are trading, and generally report only quarterly changesin shares outstanding. We use 64 firms' supplementally disclosedrepurchase trading data to provide the first examination ofrepurchase timing and execution. Across the days reported inour sample, firms adopted a variety of execution styles rangingfrom immediate intense repurchasing to delayed and smoothedrepurchasing. We find no clear evidence that repurchases aretimed to coincide with, precede, or follow, days on which informationis released. We benchmark the costs and value of a given repurchaseprogram against naive accumulation strategies achieving thesame terminal portfolio. While there is considerable variationacross the firms, NYSE firms on average beat their benchmarks,whereas NASDAQ firms do not. Finally, we document the liquidityimpact of open market repurchases. We find that repurchasingcontributes to market liquidity by narrowing bid-ask spreadsand attenuating the price impact of order imbalances on dayswhen repurchase trades are completed.     

Price impact of block trades: the curious case of downstairs trading in the EU emissions futures market

Using high-frequency data from the European Climate Exchange (ECX), we examine the determinants of price impact of €21 billion worth of block trades during 2008–2011 in the European carbon market. We find that wider bid-ask spreads and volatility are characterised by a smaller price impact. Larger levels of price impact are more likely to occur during the middle of the trading day, specifically the four-hour period between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., than during the first or final hours. Purchase block trades induce a relatively smaller price impact on price run-up, while sell block trades exhibit a larger price impact on price run-up. We conclude that block trades on the ECX induce less price impact than in equity or conventional futures markets, and that a significant proportion of the effects contradict findings on block trades in those markets; thus, we provide the first evidence of the curious bent to block trading in the European Union emissions trading scheme.     

Is market impact a measure of the information value of trades? Market response to liquidity vs. informed metaorders

We examine a data-set of institutional trades where approximately one-fourth of the trades were labelled as having been created for cash flow purposes. We aggregate near-overlapping trades into metaorders and consider information, market impact and metaorder size. We find that during the execution, the functional form and scale of market impact are similar for cash flows and other metaorders. Differences arise in the price reversion following the end of a metaorder. For cash flows, presumed to have no true information content, the impact reverts almost completely on average in two to five days. For other metaorders, we find that reversion erases about one-third of the peak impact: for each size, price reverts to the average execution price, leaving no immediate profits after accounting for trading costs. Observed mark-to-market profits on metaorders that aggregate multiple portfolio manager orders, new metaorders and Nasdaq-listed stocks suggest that these metaorders are more informed than the average. Vice-versa, we find mark-to-market losses are more likely to occur on cash flows, metaorders in large-cap stocks, metaorders that follow momentum and additions to a prior position seeking to take advantage of an improved price. The complete price reversion for cash flows suggests that the mechanical permanent impact that is considered in no-quasi-arbitrage arguments would be much smaller than the information in typical institutional metaorders.     

Intraday Behavior of Stock Prices and Trades around Insider Trading

Our evidence indicates that insiders' trades provide significant new information to market participants and they are incorporated more fully in stock prices as compared to noninsiders' trades. We find that market professionals do not front-run insiders' trades. Both insiders' purchases and sales result in significant contemporaneous and subsequent price impact, while sales by large shareholders result in a contemporaneous stock price decline that is subsequently reversed. The arrival of insider purchases reverse the prevailing negative order imbalances from third party trades and lead to piggy-backing by market professionals resulting in subsequent market purchase orders as well as stock price increases.     

The Behavior of Stock Prices Around Institutional Trades

All trades executed by 37 large investment management firms from July 1986 to December 1988 are used to study the price impact and execution cost of the entire sequence (“package”) of trades that we interpret as an order. We find that market impact and trading cost are related to firm capitalization, relative package size, and, most importantly, to the identity of the management firm behind the trade. Money managers with high demands for immediacy tend to be associated with larger market impact.     

Information and Long‐Term Stock Performance Following Open‐Market Share Repurchases

We find that firm managers have private information when they decide on open‐market share repurchases, and that this information is significantly correlated with announcement period and post‐announcement abnormal returns. We further find that long‐term post‐announcement abnormal returns are related to private information differently for firms that actually repurchase shares when compared to firms that announce a repurchase program but do not acquire shares. Our results indicate that managers’ private information is only ambiguously revealed by the repurchase announcement, and that the market waits for the firm's subsequent actions, such as actual repurchase, to further interpret the private information.     

Ripples through markets: Inter-market impacts generated by large trades

This paper uses a sample of large trades executed on the London Stock Exchange's SEAQ-I market for European cross-traded firms to investigate their impact on home market prices when parallel markets suffer from information frictions. I find that (a) large London trades produce price impacts in home markets even though no timely information is published, (b) market makers appear to pre- and post-position their inventories by splitting orders across markets, and (c) the price discovery process across markets changes significantly around large trades with the foreign market making a significantly bigger contribution to price discovery at this time, even though information opaqueness exists.     

Are Momentum Profits Robust to Trading Costs?

We test whether momentum strategies remain profitable after considering market frictions induced by trading. Intraday data are used to estimate alternative measures of proportional and non-proportional (price impact) trading costs. The price impact models imply that abnormal returns to portfolio strategies decline with portfolio size. We calculate break-even fund sizes that lead to zero abnormal returns. In addition to equal- and value-weighted momentum strategies, we derive a liquidity-weighted strategy designed to reduce the cost of trades. Equal-weighted strategies perform the best before trading costs and the worst after trading costs. Liquidity-weighted and hybrid liquidity/value-weighted strategies have the largest break-even fund sizes: $5 billion or more (relative to December 1999 market capitalization) may be invested in these momentum strategies before the apparent profit opportunities vanish.     

Liquidity, analysts, and institutional ownership

In this paper, we investigate the empirical relationship between institutional ownership, number of analysts following and stock market liquidity. We find that firms with larger number of financial analysts following have wider spreads, lower market quality index, and larger price impact of trades. However, we find that firms with higher institutional ownership have narrower spreads, higher market quality index, and smaller price impact of trades. In addition, we show that changes in our liquidity measures are significantly related to changes in institutional ownership over time. These results suggest that firms may alleviate information asymmetry and improve stock market liquidity by increasing institutional ownership. Our results are remarkably robust to different measures of liquidity and measures of information asymmetry.     

Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of ‘random’ price changes

Using trades and quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delilcated interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean revrting limit orders that lead to sub-diffusion (or anti-persistence). We define and study a model where the price, at any instant, is the result of the impact of all past trades, mediated by a non-constant ‘propagator’ in time that describes the response of the market to a single trade. Within this model, the market is shown to be, in a precise sense, at a critical point, where the price is purely diffusive and the average response function almost constant. We find empirically, and discuss theoretically, a fluctuation-response relation. We also discuss the fraction of truly informed market orders, that correctly anticipate short-term moves, and find that it is quite small.     

Market Structure and Transaction Costs of Index CDSs

Despite regulatory efforts to promote all-to-all trading, the post–Dodd-Frank index credit default swap market remains two-tiered. Transaction costs are higher for dealer-to-client than interdealer trades, but the difference is explained by the higher, largely permanent, price impact of client trades. Most interdealer trades are liquidity motivated and executed via low-cost, low-immediacy trading protocols. Dealer-to-client trades are nonanonymous; they almost always improve upon contemporaneous executable interdealer quotes, and dealers appear to price discriminate based on the perceived price impact of trades. Our results suggest that the market structure is a consequence of the characteristics of client trades: relatively infrequent, large, and differentially informed.     

Permanent trading impacts and bond yields

We analyse four years of transaction data for euro-area sovereign bonds traded on the MTS electronic platforms. In order to measure the informational content of trading activity, we estimate the permanent price response to trades. We not only find strong evidence of information asymmetry in sovereign bond markets, but also show the relevance of information asymmetry in explaining the cross-sectional variations of bond yields across a wide range of bond maturities and countries. Our results confirm that trades of more recently issued bonds and longer maturity bonds have a greater permanent effect on prices. We compare the price impact of trades for bonds across different maturity categories and find that trades of French and German bonds have the highest long-term price impact in the short maturity class, whereas trades of German bonds have the highest permanent price impact in the long maturity class. More importantly, we study the cross-section of bond yields and find that after controlling for conventional factors, investors demand higher yields for bonds with larger permanent trading impact. Interestingly, when investors face increased market uncertainty, they require even higher compensation for information asymmetry.     

What Drives Shareholder Reaction and Wealth Effect in Block Trades? Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of shareholder reaction to block trades and their wealth effect on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The positive abnormal returns obtained for the entire sample indicate that block trades create shareholder value. Shareholders reacted positively to block trades without a control transfer in the Polish market, and their reaction was stronger than in the US market. Abnormal returns of block trades concluded at a discount were twice as high as those for the entire sample. Moreover, cross-border block trades had a negative impact on shareholder value creation, as did financial investors as an acquirer. However, cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) were driven up by the relative power of minority shareholders (ocean) prior to the transaction. The absolute size of the block acquired by an investor was also observed to have a positive impact on price rises and abnormal returns.     

Insider trading and share repurchases: Do insiders and firms trade in the same direction?

Signaling undervaluation is often considered a primary motive for repurchasing stock, but insider trading activity by repurchasing firms is not always consistent with undervaluation. Net insider buying and selling are both more frequent in quarters when firms are repurchasing non-trivial amounts of stock, with the odds of observing a repurchase the highest in quarters with net insider selling. In multinomial logit models, share repurchases associated with net insider selling are positively related to illiquidity, option exercises by insiders, and pre-repurchase returns and negatively correlated with industry-adjusted book to market ratios when compared to other repurchases. Hence, repurchases when insiders are selling stock are more likely done to support share prices or avoid dilution and are less likely undervaluation signals. We find that insider trades either validate or mitigate the undervaluation signal of the repurchase. Abnormal returns of repurchasing firms with net insider buying versus net insider selling in a given quarter are significantly higher for the quarter immediately after the repurchase and the three subsequent years. For repurchases accompanied by net insider selling, abnormal returns are negligible after only one year.     

Share buybacks in India

We examine the market price and liquidity reaction to 239 share repurchase announcements in India. The average abnormal return on announcement day is 2.07 percent. Firms with larger promotor ownership stakes experience higher market reactions. Using the Amihud illiquidity measure and volume, we show that liquidity improves after the announcement. Open market repurchase programs increase market liquidity while tender offers do not. Liquidity improves more for high promotor ownership firms. Lastly, shorter duration repurchase programs improve liquidity more than longer duration programs. These results are consistent with our discussion of the pecking order of ownership structure in the low information transparency environment of India.     

The Market Evaluation of Information in Directors' Trades

The purpose of this paper is to examine the propensity, characteristics and performance of directors' trades. Consistent with prior research we show that on average, directors outperform the market. However, we also find that there exist a large number of trades which do not share these abnormal share price returns and consequently have little information content. This has important consequences for market participants who use director trading activity as a signal for their own trading strategies. Using different measures of directors' trades based on trade characteristics, we report that purchases by directors are more informative than sales. In addition, the number of directors trading within a twenty day window and the percentage of the directors' holding that is being traded are both important factors in the abnormal share price performance following the trade.