可转债转股价格下调的股价效应

一、引言可转债,即可转换债券,是企业融资的宠儿。企业发行可转债,通常是为了延迟当期低价股权融资。而转股价格向下修正条款,提高了债券转股的可能性,。转股价格向下修正条款,指的是这样一种条款:当股价表现不佳时,一般是股价连续低于转股价一定水平,该条款允许发行公司在约定时间内将转股价格向下修正为原转股价格的70%～80%。每次股东大会根据     

分红下的可转债转股价修正条款的利益转移效应

本文研究了分红下的可转债转股价修正条款的利益转移效应。实证检验发现了该条款的实质是把老股东的利益转移给了可转债投资者,可见市场对该条款的内涵没有充分认知。     

上市公司可转换公司债券融资决策研究

基于全流通背景和上市公司集中的股权结构特征,从理论和实证两方面分析了中国上市公司可转债融资决策机制,结果表明在股权流通的背景下,通过可转债方式融资并成功转股,需要上市公司具有较高的盈利前景,否则融资后会降低控制性股东的融资收益,这一条件使得可转债融资方式失去了原有的吸引力。但可转债灵活的条款设计和转股前较低的资金使用成本受到了一些暂时难以进行增发融资的上市公司青睐——可以通过缩短初始转股期、降低初始转股价、放松向下修正转股价条款、严格赎回条款与回售条件等手段,提高可转债转股的可能性,从而间接地实现股权融资的目的。     

最稳重的战略和最佳的配合

1.最重要的隐匿了为友好起见,特把本文涉及的上市公司名称,用字母取代。话说2003年,频频发行上市公司的可转换债券。这些债券的转股价向下修正条款,互有不同,各有特色,颇耐人寻味。4月24日星期四,上网定价发行Fgyr转债,初始转股价8.13元(后来股价跌破此价)。转股价向下修正条款     

可转债定价分析——以工商银行可转债为例

工商银行股份有限公司于2010年8月26日发行公告表示,公司将于2010年8月31日起开始发现存续期6年,规模为250亿元的可转换公司债,初始转股价为4.2元.经中国证监会批准,本次发行可转债所筹集的资金在扣除发行费用后,全部用于补充银行附属资本,可转债持有人转股后补充核心资本.本文将利用二叉树模型对工商银行可转债进行定价分析.     

LSM可转债定价模型及其应用研究

可转债定价一直是可转债发行与投资分析的关键,通过引入最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟法(LSM)对可转债进行定价研究,利用GARCH模型对股价波动率、无风险利率等参数进行估计,并利用平赌过程适配法提高LSM的执行效率.实证结果表明,最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟法具有较好的预测效果,为可转债定价提供了一条有效途径.     

可转换公司债券持有与发行策略分析

可转债的价值基础是其纯债价值和转股价值,在市价波动中,持有人可以选择持有至到期、在转股期内转为股票、按市价售出,以实现利益最大化;发行人也可以通过合理确定初始转股价、转股价下修决策、强制赎回决策保证自己的利益。本文就可转债持有人与发行人策略进行分析探讨。     

保险精算学原理在可转债定价模型中的运用

可转债作为一种新型金融衍生工具,其价值可以简单理解为转股权价值与债券价值之和。MogensBladt与Tina Hvid Rydberg于1998年首先提出期权定价的保险精算方法,但是其结果与Black—scholes公式存在一定出入,在修正Bladt和Rydberg提出的精算公式基础上,从评估实际损失和相应概率分布角度来定量研究可转债期权部分价值,获得基于保险精算方法的可转债期权部分定价模型。同时,基于精算等价原理,通过每一违约事件在某时刻发生概率和该时刻债券支付现金流,得到债券未来支付现金流的精算现值,即可转债债券部分的精算价格。通过两部分价值模型的建立,得到可转债的定价模型。精算方法在一定程度克服了基于无风险套利、复制思想得到的B-S模型假设严格、公式推导较为繁琐的不足,同时,可转债债券部分的风险也能够通过精算方法得到较好体现。     

可转债的定价研究

可转换债券作为一种兼具债券、股票和期权多重投资特性的派生金融产品,其转股价的确定受多种因素的影响.本文通过时可转债定价进行价值和杠杆分析,建立一种以企业未来财务状况为主的定价体系.     

可转债转股行为对公司股价影响的研究

本文筛选了2001-2007年中国发行可转债的25家公司的转股行为前后收益率数据,以超额收益率作为公司股价的衡量指标,回归考察了可转债转股行为对公司短期股价的影响,全面而深入地分析了造成这种影响的原因。研究表明:短期内转股行为与公司的股价呈一定的负相关关系,但由于中国可转债公司样本数量相对较少、原股东持有可转债份额较大的限制,转股行为对累积超额收益率的影响并不显著。     

我国资本市场可转债定价及后市走势研究

从1992年发行第一只可转换公司债券(以下简称“可转债”)至今,中国可转债市场已经历了二十多年的发展。自诞生以来,中国监管机构对可转债的发行要求不断明确,配套监管措施不断完善,可转债市场迅速发展,发行规模不断提高。然而,在2017年以前,虽然可转债的发行规模增长迅速,但其融资总额占资本市场股权产品总融资规模的比重仍处于较低水平。究其原因,一方面是因为可转债的发行主体仅限于上市公司,股权融资存在较大的不确定性;同时可转债的定价条款过于复杂,市场接受程度较低。随着2017年证监会对可转债产品的审核标准进一步明确,可转债发行规模高速增长,目前已成为资本市场上不可忽视的品种。为确定可转债定价方式,本文以“广汽转债”历年来的市场价格为数据基础,以B-S模型为分析模型,通过实证分析寻求影响可转债定价的主要因素,对未来可转债定价的研究具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Simulation-based pricing of convertible bonds

We propose and empirically investigate a pricing model for convertible bonds based on Monte Carlo simulation. The method uses parametric representations of the early exercise decisions and consists of two stages. Pricing convertible bonds with the proposed Monte Carlo approach allows us to better capture both the dynamics of the underlying state variables and the rich set of real-world convertible bond specifications. Furthermore, using the simulation model proposed, we present an empirical pricing study of the US market, using 32 convertible bonds and 69 months of daily market prices. Our results do not confirm the evidence of previous studies that market prices of convertible bonds are on average lower than prices generated by a theoretical model. Similarly, our study is not supportive of a strong positive relationship between moneyness and mean pricing error, as argued in the literature.     

基于B-S期权定价模型的可转换债券定价实证分析

可转换债券是一种混合金融衍生工具,它把相应的股票看涨期权内嵌在传统的公司债券之中,具有债券和股票的双重性质,因而可转债的定价问题逐渐为企业和投资者所关注。本文借助Black-Scholes定价模型研究定价理论,对Black-Scholes定价模型进行修正,体现了红利发放对可转换债券定价的影响。     

A contingent-claims valuation of convertible securities

This paper examines the pricing of convertible bonds and preferred stocks. The optimal policies for call and conversion of these securities are determined via the criterion of dominance. The techniques underlying the Black-Scholes Option Model are used to price convertible securities as contingent claims on the firm as a whole.     

Time‐changed Lévy jump processes with GARCH model on reverse convertibles

For decades, financial institutions have been very motivated in creating structured high-yield financial products, especially in the economic environment of lower interest rates. Reverse convertible notes (RCNs) are the type of financial instruments, which in recent years first in Europe and then in the US – have become highly desirable financial structured products. They are complex financial structured products because they are neither plain bonds nor stocks. Instead, they are structured products embedding equity options, which involve a significant amount of asset returns' uncertainty. Given this fact, pricing of reverse convertible notes becomes a really big challenge, where both the general Black–Scholes option pricing model and the compound Poisson jump model which are designed to catch large crashes, are not suitable in valuing these kinds of products. In this paper, we propose a new asset-pricing framework for reverse convertible notes by extending the pure Brownian increments to Lévy jump risks for the underlying stock return movements. Our framework deals with time-changing volatilities of stock options with Lévy jump processes by considering the stocks' infinite-jump possibilities. We then use a discrete-time GARCH with time-changed dynamics Lévy Jump processes in order to derive the assets' valuations. The results from our new model are close to the market's valuations, especially with the normal-inverse-Gaussian model of the Lévy jump family.     

可转债上市及转股日的异常收益探讨

本文对可转债上市及转股日前后异常收益分析表明，上市初期累计异常收益与现金流因子成显著正相关，与营运因子成非显著负相关。本文认为，上市初期可转债累计异常收益部分由可转债本身因素来决定，部分由市场的非有效性与心理因素来决定。而转换期前后的累计异常收益完全是由市场的非有效性与心理因素决定的。在转换期前后，公司基本面信息与转债条款信息已在定价中得到反映，转换期前后累计异常收益完全与这些信息无关，可转债价格的异常变化也与这些因素无关。     

CONVERTIBLE BOND VALUATION: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

This research applies the options pricing model to the valuation of convertible bonds. A numeric algorithm is used to obtain theoretical values for a sample of 103 convertible bond issues. When market prices are compared with model valuations, the means are not significantly different, and 90 percent of model predictions are within 10 percent of market values. As a further test, the sample is divided on the basis of whether the model prices are (1) greater or (2) less than market prices. Returns are compared over a subsequent three-year holding period. The results indicate that without risk adjustment, the returns for the subsample identified by the model as “undervalued” (model prices exceed market prices) are significantly greater than returns for the subsample identified by the model as “overvalued” (market prices exceed model prices).     

The fluctuating maturities of convertible bonds

The maturities of newly issued convertible bonds vary substantially over time. Firm-specific determinants of maturity from the straight debt literature are relevant for convertible bonds. However, the growth of the convertible arbitrage industry and the role of convertible arbitrage hedge funds have changed the importance of firm characteristics in the convertible bond market. Recently issued convertible bonds come with particularly short maturities that serve as substitutes for call provisions. This substitution implies that backdoor-equity and sequential-financing rationales for issuing callable convertible bonds are also applicable for non-callable convertibles with shorter maturities.     

Financing decisions: The case of convertible bonds

Research studying firms' motivations to issue convertible bonds remains far from complete. This paper aims to provide further understanding of firms' motives behind issuing convertible bonds. We propose a theoretical model that explains issuers' choice between convertibles and equity when raising a required amount of capital by comparing the cash flow streams of both alternatives in order to maximize the firm's value for the current shareholders. We derive a closed form solution of our theoretical model both in absence and presence of default risk. Our model suggests that issuing convertible bonds is preferred to a direct stock issuance if the expected return of convertible bonds is lower than the expected return of common stocks. Empirical findings confirm our theoretical predictions.     

Callable or convertible debt? The role of debt overhang and covenants

We analyze what role debt overhang and covenants have in a manager’s choice between issuing callable or convertible debt when a firm needs to issue a substantial amount of debt. Callable bonds provide a higher coupon in exchange for a repurchase option. Convertible bonds offer bondholders the option to exchange debt to equity. Using a dynamic capital structure model with investment choice, we find that callable debt implies a larger debt overhang friction, and for highly leveraged firms convertible debt is preferred. Moreover, if outstanding bonds have net-worth covenants attached, callable bonds are more likely to be issued. Our empirical findings support the theory.