Canadian Cattle Cycles and Market Shocks

We analyze Canadian beef cattle cycles using time‐series properties of four variables: total cattle inventories, beef cow inventories, beef supply, and beef prices. Our aim is to provide up‐to‐date estimates of the duration of the cycles, and to determine whether or not some of the recent market shocks can be associated with changes in the nature of the cycles. Spectral decomposition of the variables reveals 10‐year cycles in total cattle inventories, beef cow inventories, beef supply, and beef prices. Seasonal and annual cycles are also found in beef supply and prices, respectively. Using intervention analysis, exchange rate appreciation, feed price escalation, and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) are modeled as pure jumps. Exchange rate and feed price shocks are modeled as having started in 2002 and 2007, respectively, and persisted up to the end of the sample period, while BSE is modeled as a shift for the period 2003 to 2005. We find significant impacts of the three shocks on total inventories, but beef supply appears to have been impacted by exchange rates and BSE. A spectral comparison of the pre‐ and post‐shock periodograms of beef supply reveals a 58% reduction in the peak amplitude of the beef supply cycle.     

On the Use of Price Ratio in Aggregate Supply Response: Some Evidence from the Poultry Industry

The specification of supply/demand relationships has received considerable attention in agricultural economics (Heien 1977). Economic theory has helped provide a basis for the specification of such relationships, one of its contributions being the proposition that prices should be interpreted only in relative terms. This has had a profound influence on model building in agricultural economics, leading a number of researchers to avoid the use of absolute prices in economic analysis. For this reason, numerous market models of the agricultural economy use price ratios as explanatory variables (e.g., Chen; Chen et al.; Heien, 1976; Gerra; Kulshreshtha and Wilson; Rahn; Talpaz; Morzuck et al.; Houck and Gallagher; Wilson et al.); these examples suggest that the use of such ratios is fairly widespread in econometric modeling of the crop and livestock sectors. One of the best examples of price ratios is the "feed cost to price" ratio commonly used in the analysis of livestock supply response. Indeed, since feed cost constitutes a major part of the total production cost in livestock activities, the "feed cost to price" ratio is often considered a proxy for profitability. For this reason, data on such ratios are regularly published for various livestock activities (e.g., USD A). Also, "feed cost to price" ratios are often employed in the specification of models of livestock supply response, (e.g., Chen; Chen et al.; Heien 1976; Gerra; Kulshreshtha and Wilson; Rahn; Talpaz). However, not all models of aggregate supply response follow this approach. For example, Freebairn and Rausser, and Arzac and Wilkinson, use prices as separate variables rather than in ratio forms in their models. In particular, they do not employ price ratios in their livestock and crop supply equations. The existence of these different approaches raises questions about the appropriateness of the use of price ratios in the modeling of aggregate supply.     

Residential development on gardens in England: Their role in providing sustainable housing supply

Development of garden land has attracted political and media attention in recent years, yet there remained uncertainty over whether the issue was nationally or locally significant. Gardens are not a land use in their own right and have no special status in planning law. This enabled them to be considered, until very recently, as previously developed land according to The Brownfield Guide (English Partnerships, 2006). This allowed garden sites to be developed for new housing, thereby helping some authorities to meet their targets for residential development on brownfield land as monitored through their strategic housing land availability assessment (SHLAA). This paper reports the findings of a survey of local planning authorities carried out in 2009 and focused on planning applications and permissions on garden sites over a five year period ending 31 March 2008. The results reveal that garden development was a significant issue in only certain regional contexts, South East, London and West Midlands, and its actual and potential contribution to the local housing stock was variable. Where other forms of brownfield land were in short supply, garden sites might be crucial in meeting targets. The paper examines the policy framework underpinning such applications and shows that where local planning authorities had specific policies on the subject in place they were able to reach more robust decisions on garden site planning applications and there was less likelihood of first stage rejection decisions being overturned on appeal.     

Decompositions of corn price effects: implications for feed grain demand and livestock supply

This article examines how corn prices affect the demand for feed grains and the supply of livestock outputs. The differential approach to the theory of the multiproduct firm is employed to examine ex ante decisions about feed grain demand and livestock supply. The estimation results suggest that livestock producers have little flexibility in adjusting the demand for corn in response to an increase in corn prices. The substitutable relationship between corn and distillers’ grains contributes to alleviating pressures on feed costs in response to high corn prices. In addition, the estimation results highlight that the composition of livestock supply can be altered by changes in livestock prices. On the basis of the estimated elasticities, the decompositions of profit‐maximizing input demand are conducted to examine the effects of changes in corn prices on feed grain demand and livestock supply. The decomposition results reveal that an increase in corn prices reduces corn demand but raises the demand for distillers’ grains mainly due to the substitution effects of corn price changes. The decomposition results also show that an increase in the price of corn reduces cattle supply but raises the supply of chicken and pork due to the output relationships in supply.     

The relationship between land use and groundwater resources and quality

Groundwater has three major roles in our environment: providing the baseflow that keeps most rivers flowing all year long, maintaining good river water quality by diluting sewage and other effluents, and as an excellent source of water supply, providing over 75 per cent of the potable supply in some regions. Groundwater is intimately connected with the landscape and land use that it underlies, and most of the landscape and is vulnerable to the anthropogenic activities on the land surface above. Land use affects groundwater resources through changes in recharge and by changing demands for water. Inappropriate land use, particularly poor land management, causes chronic groundwater quality problems. Acute groundwater quality problems are common and arise from unsuitable land use and control, notably through point sources of hazardous chemicals. Current land use instruments have only been designed to address quality issues in groundwater and do not consider recharge. These instruments have been largely ineffective in protecting groundwater from diffuse pollution for several reasons including fragmentation, their general absence of teeth, and their lack of integration into the land use planning system. This paper argues for a more radical approach which would zone land according to its overall vulnerability and resilience to anthropogenic and climatic influence in order to sustainably support the ecosystem services it can deliver. Land use would be matched with the vulnerability of the soil, with geology and water, and with the whole ecosystem. The Water Framework Directive offers a mechanism to do this, but there is no evidence of enough political will to tackle the long-term conflicts between land use and groundwater.     

Canadian Hog Supply Response: A Provincial Level Analysis

Canada's hog sector has faced two decades of tumultuous growth, yet there are no recent estimates of supply response. This study uses state‐space methods to account for a multiplicity of autonomous structural changes impacting the sector and determines if the fundamental relationship between supply response and hog prices has changed from previous estimates. The results are consistent with prior research but offer the reader previously unavailable estimates of supply response with respect to feed prices and the variability of hog and feed prices. Feed price elasticities are somewhat larger than hog price elasticities. The effects of price risk for supply response appear quite muted but the impacts of feed price risk are greater than for hog price risk.     

A SUPPLY FUNCTION FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS

Results of an investigation into factors affecting the aggregate supply of dairy products in Australia are presented. Empirical estimates of the parameters of the supply function, using ordinary least squares, indicate that some concept of average prices for dairy products is a more important determinant of supply than ratios of prices of dairy products relative to prices of production substitutes such as beef cattle or sheep and lambs. The empirical results also indicate that the quota-type effects of the various metropolitan fluid milk schemes are important in determining supply. Effects of new technology on supply could not be quantified due to intercorrelation of explanatory variables.     

Buyer preferences for sheep and goats in southern Nigeria: A hedonic price analysis

A survey of two rural markets in southwest Nigeria over 14 months showed that supplies, sales and prices of sheep and goats varied widely during the period with a sharp peak during the Muslim festival of' Eid-el-Kabir and a smaller peak during the Christmas-New Year period. Local West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep and goats and northern Y'ankasa sheep and Red Sokoto goats were traded in the markets and animals were purchased for rearing, trading, ceremonies, butchering/catering, sacrifice, and festivals. There were significant differences between species/breeds purchased for various purposes. A hedonic price model was fitted to determine factors influencing price. After adjustments were made for age, weight, sex, time of transaction and market, WAD sheep commanded higher prices than WAD goats and Red Sokoto goats for all purposes except for butchering/catering; Red Sokoto goats commanded similar or lower prices than WAD goats depending on the purpose for purchase; and Y'ankasa sheep, principally purchased for the Eid-el-Kabir festival, commanded marginally higher prices than WAD sheep. The market share of WAD sheep is currently small and is under competition from northern sheep and goats, so increased production of WAD sheep in the south will benefit both producers and consumers in the area. In general, the results indicate that buyers have preferences for specific breeds and species for specific purposes, so producers and sellers may benefit by targeting specific buyer categories and times of the year.     

Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China

In the past two decades, the use of grain to feed livestock in China has increased rapidly. A number of studies have examined demand and supply of grain for animal feed in China. Forecasts have been made. Generally, these projections have turned out to be well wide of the actual supply and demand. Further, forecasts of supply and demand for feed grains for the same time periods have differed greatly. Accurate forecasts of variables affecting supply and demand benefit both producers and consumers. Past forecasts of supply and demand of feed grain for livestock production in China are reviewed and reasons for discrepancies between projections are explored. Ways to improve projections of demand for and supply of grain for livestock feed in China are identified.     

Empirical investigation of investment behaviour in Australia's pastoral region*

Optimal intertemporal investment behaviour of Australian pastoralists is modelled using panel data for the period 1979–1993. Results indicate that quasi‐fixity of inputs of labour, capital, sheep numbers and cattle numbers is characteristic of production in the pastoral region. It takes about two years for labour, four years for capital and a little over two years for both sheep numbers and cattle numbers to adjust towards long‐run optimal levels. Results also indicate that, after accounting for adjustment costs, own‐price product supply and input demand responses are inelastic in both the short and long run.     

EXPORT SUPPLY RESPONSE OF THE AUSTRALIAN CITRUS INDUSTRY*

A model of export supply response of the Australian citrus industry is developed and estimated using cointegration and error correction techniques and quarterly data for the period 1983 to 1993. The estimates suggest that, even in the long run, the supply of citrus exports is inelastic with respect to relative price. The results also show that the adjustment of export supply to changes in relative price is not instantaneous, the domestic production capacity has a significant positive impact on export supply, and export supply in the June quarter in each year is significantly lower than in other quarters.     

Multi-period stochastic optimization of a sustainable multi-feedstock second generation bioethanol supply chain − A logistic case study in Midwestern United States

This work proposes a multi-objective optimization model to design a sustainable multi-period second generation biomass-to-bioethanol supply chain under multiple uncertainties. The objective is to simultaneously maximize the economic, environmental, and social performance. The strategic decisions such as land allocation for switchgrass cultivation, biorefinery locations and capacities, and the biomass-to-bioethanol conversion pathway are determined for each planning period which are staggered across the entire planning horizon. The augmented ε–constraint method is used to trade-off among the competing objectives and to obtain feasible solutions that achieve desired levels of sustainability. In order to solve the proposed stochastic optimization model efficiently and effectively, this work proposes a solution approach involving sequential application of a modified Sample Average Approximation method and Benders decomposition. A case study is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed mathematical model and its impact on land usage and sustainability.     

Does population pressure induce farm intensification? Empirical evidence from Tigrai Region,Ethiopia

The scarcity of land for crop and livestock production is critical in countries with growing populations. The idea that increasing population density leads to natural resource depletion and economic failure, as predicted by Malthus, or rather to farm intensification, as hypothesized by Boserup, motivates this research. This article examines how high population pressure in northern Ethiopia influences smallholders’ farm intensification by applying recursive estimation with a control function approach using data from 518 randomly selected farmers. Although our empirical results are more in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis, the findings also reveal that both Malthusian and Boserupian forces coexist. Consistent with Malthus theory, high population pressure is found to be associated with small farm size and herd size. Population pressure affected both technology use (breed cow, stall feeding, and modern cattle feed) and output supply (milk yield, milk income, and straw output). As predicted by Boserup's theory, the use of modern input and output supply initially increases with increasing population pressure but declines again when population densities pass a critical threshold (800 persons/km²), supporting Malthus’ hypothesis. The estimation results also revealed that both milk and straw supply responded positively to prices. Free grazing and stall feeding are found to be complementary activities. Likewise, crop farm income and off‐farm job have a nonlinear relation with population pressure, implying that both initially increase and then decrease with rising population pressure.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A CASE FOR DISAGGREGATION AND DYNAMICS*

Microeconomic capital goods theory was utilised to provide a theoretical framework on which a dynamic econometric model was based. Econometric procedures were then employed in an analysis of sheep producers' decision making regarding the annual supplies of wool, lamb and mutton, and annual changes in the inventory levels of sheep, lambs and ewes maintained for breeding purposes. Estimates show that wool prices provide the long-run stimulus for increases and decreases in the sheep flock while mutton and lamb prices are responsible for short-run changes in flock composition. Substitution between sheep and beef cattle is of considerable importance although no significant substitution between sheep and cropping could be found. Seasonal conditions proved to be an important short-run supply shifter, affecting both numbers and composition of the sheep flock.     

DYNAMIC FARM—LEVEL PLANNING MODEL FOR BEEF FEEDLOT PRODUCTION AND MARKETING

The study is aimed at formulating and empirically applying a dynamic farm-level model for the planning of optimal beef feedlot production and marketing strategies. A dynamic programming (DP) model is used to calculate the optimal feeding schedule (i.e. liveweight gain sequence), market liveweight and stock replacement for a single bull calf over a one-year planning period, taking into account seasonal fluctuations of planning parameters such as beef prices, feeding costs, nutritional requirements, and stock replacement costs and obtainability. The DP model includes a linear programming (LP) subroutine for calculating least-cost feed rations. The planning model is empirically applied using data and assumptions representative offeedlots in the Coastal Plain region of Israel where most feedlot production and marketing decisions are made by ‘rule-of-thumb’ using set liveweight gain sequences, market standards and stock replacement decisions. The empirical findings indicate that the profitability of feedlot production and marketing could be increased by an average of 10% over that obtained from ‘rule-of-thumb’ decision rules.     

A FURTHER STUDY IN THE DEMAND FOR FATSTOCK*

This paper has been prepared in an attempt to interpret some of the price-supply complexities in the Pork, Beef and Bacon markets. Previous writers have tackled the subject working out price flexibilities on a three monthly, half-yearly or annual basis. It appeared that the price-supply relationships could, with advantage, be examined on a monthly basis-the statistical significance of the results would not be as high as with previous work, but it was felt that the contribution would be worthwhile so long as the conclusions were supported by circumstantial evidence. The pork market has been examined in detail and evidence found suggesting that during the period 1955 to 1965 there have been two shifts in the demand curve, both appearing to result from a coincidence of a period of high pig numbers with one of low beef supply. The beef analysis did not reveal anything of note in the way of shifts in the demand curve, but there was a very marked seasonal pattern of prices in the period 1955 to 1960 with some of the months of high prices having a temptingly low price flexibility suggesting scope for profitable expansion of supplies during these months. The main months when this occurred were after the peak period of fattening stock from yards and before grass fed stock come on the market. Supplies have increased rapidly in this period and moved away from the last three months of the year when price flexibility was large and prices relatively low. The bacon analysis has been done at the wholesale level rather than at the farm gate. Price flexibilities are high and in practically every month of the year expansion in supply results in a decrease in total value of sales. Unless a change in demand can be brought about there would appear to be little scope in expanding total supplies of bacon. The best course for the home producer would appear to be to attempt to expand the U.K. share of the market.     

基于“多规合一”的海岸带综合管控研究

研究目的:针对当前海岸带规划管理体系庞杂、矛盾不断、资源利用率低的问题,提出构建基于"多规合一"的海岸带综合规划,剖析其内涵、特征和战略定位,并构建相应的框架、技术路径、协调机制与管控策略。研究方法:文献分析和综合分析法。研究结果:当前海岸带综合规划编制存在规划管理体系庞大、事权不清、空间部署差异大和陆海关联度低等问题。编制基于"多规合一"的海岸带综合规划,建立统筹协调的海岸带管理机制,是解决海岸带规划冲突、提高资源利用率的现实需求,也是实现中国海陆统筹战略的现实需求。研究结论:海岸带综合规划是海岸带规划体系中的顶层设计,处于核心地位,在空间上、规划间以及系统间实现统筹,具备战略性、综合性、统一性、适应性和民主性5大基本特征。提出海岸带综合规划总体框架和"多规合一"的技术路径,认为基于既有行政架构的组织机制协调是当前阶段有效的协调机制。保障规划成果落地的重要管控策略包括:确立海岸带综合规划的实施主体、建立健全的监督、反馈与问责机制以及构筑海岸带"多规合一"依法管理体制。     

Farmer Decision‐Making with Conflicting Goals: A Recursive Strategic Programming Analysis

This paper concerns the analysis of farmers' goal trade‐offs using a series of representative dairying and beef/sheep farm models. The models employ an adaptive feedback structure and expectations model to track adjustment processes over a seven‐year planning horizon, 1991/92 to 1997/98. Model solutions, under a conventional profit maximising objective function, and using a weighted goal programming formulation, under a series of empirically specified alternative goal orientations, are examined and compared. The paper identifies significant variation among farm families in terms of ability to attain key goals concerning farm profitability, family consumption, farm investment, growth and cash flow. The results quantify the trade‐off between family consumption and farm investment/growth goals.     

重要矿产资源战略接续区规划体系构建

随着我国矿产资源供需矛盾的加大,增强矿产资源后备保障能力．建设重要矿产资源战略接续区,逐渐成为我国矿政管理的重要诉求。在新一轮矿产资源规划中构建重要矿产资源战略接续区规划体系,对保障我国矿产资源供应安全意义重大。重要矿产资源战略接续区是从国家的宏观需求和发展战略出发,保障大宗短缺矿产资源持续供应的地区。其特点是具备良好的资源禀赋条件和特定的时空范畴。主要矿产资源战略接续区规模体系按行政区域可分为国家级、省（市、区）、市级和县级规划;按规划对象和功能可分为总体规划、专项规划和区域规划,其特征是整体性、层次性和开放性。规划程序包括明确规划目标、资料收集准备、区域条件分析、规划编制、保障措施制定、规划实施、规划实施评价等步骤。其基本内容包括国家级战略接续区规划的内容。     

基于GM模型的四川省畜产品供给预测分析

［目的］分析和预测四川省畜产品的供给现状及预测,有利于保障农产品有效供给,加快推进农业农村经济发展,促使四川由农业大省向农业强省转变。［方法］文章首先对国内外相关研究进行了梳理,然后在分析2007—2016年四川省畜产品现状基础上,总结目前存在的问题,利用灰色系统理论,采用GM（1, 1）模型对未来10年四川省的畜产品供给进行预测。［结果］结果显示该模型的预测精度较高,结果可信。四川省未来10年的畜产品产量总体呈逐年增长态势,但增长速度较缓慢,而且各市区的畜产品产量存在区域差异,肉类总产、猪肉以及禽肉产量都呈上涨趋势,仅有较少市区的牛、羊、兔等草食性动物的产量有所下降。［结论］未来应该从保障产品供给、转变消费观念以及增加科技投入等方面着手,为畜牧业的发展提供方向性借鉴指导,推动畜牧产业结构转型升级,从而稳步推进农业供给侧结构性改革。