经济领域中的相关性与传导性研究

经济领域中行业之间、生产与消费、产业结构与就业结构之间不仅存在着相关性,而且彼此之间由于相互影响而形成传导性.本文建立前向反馈神经网络模型,以经济危机、金融危机、行业危机为背景研究了经济领域中的相关性和传导性.     

新兴中国股票市场与成熟国际股票市场之间关系的实证研究

本文通过方差分解和脉冲响应函数对中国股票市场、美国股票市场、香港股票市场和新加坡股票市场的收益率进行了实证研究．发现各个市场之间表现出一定的独立性,这在一定程度上说明通过国际股票市场所包含的信息并不能正确预测中国市场的股票的收益率,同时通过中国的股票市场的收益率信息也不能正确预测国际证券市场股票的有用信息。     

利率调控幅度对金融市场的影响研究

当前为巩固经济恢复势头,我国货币政策持续发力。随着利率走廊机制的不断完善,我国的货币政策调控框架逐步向价格型转变。基准利率是市场利率的定价基础,在通畅的利率传导机制下,政策利率的调整将带动基准利率发生相应变化,进而改变市场利率。明确不同幅度的利率调控对金融市场产生的实际影响,既有助于完善货币政策的预期管理机制,也能够帮助金融市场中的不同主体把握市场规律,及时调整自身的应对策略。本文从分析利率调控政策实施效果出发,以短期利率变动率为门限变量,创建门限向量自回归模型,以确定利率调整幅度高与低的客观门限值,并以此为基础计算分区制的脉冲响应函数,以分析不同幅度的利率调控对金融市场的影响。     

新兴市场经济国家金融危机的成因与我国的风险防范

一、新兴市场经济国家金融危机产生的主要原因 1.新兴经济体本身存在缺陷所形成的风险积累.新兴经济体本身存在的缺陷主要反映在两方面:一是产业结构的缺陷.产业结构不合理、产业结构调整滞后影响到经济增长,导致贸易和财政赤字都超过危险警戒线.二是金融制度的缺陷.金融体系不健全,金融市场机制未充分发挥作用,加之金融监管不力,导致银行经营和金融秩序的混乱.新兴国家金融业存在的严重缺陷是国际资本诱导下金融动荡的重要国内基础.<巴塞尔协议>中提出衡量一国金融体系健康与否的最具权威性的国际尺度,其中一个重要指标就是如何判断一国银行体系中存在不良债权的严重程度.90年代,大多数发生严重金融危机的新兴国家都不同程度存在严重的不良债权,其不良债权对银行总资产或对GDP的比率过高.尽管这些不良债权在不同的国家有不同的形成原因,但过度的不良债权产生的结果都是相同的,即最终导致金融危机,进而造成实体经济衰退.当这些缺陷形成的内在风险积累到一定程度就可能为所在国的金融动荡提供内部条件.     

转战新兴市场

相对于成熟市场而言，新兴市场的贸易环境较为恶劣，风险也相对较大。但我们目前不应片面强调环境，最重要的是锤炼自身如何规避风险的能力     

中国金融市场间的波动效应分析

基于金融市场有效性假设,各个金融市场间的联动效应密切.基于VAR模型分析股市、债市、外汇以及期货市场之间跨越市场的价格传递效应,价格冲击随时间变动而变动.研究分析得出:股票市场与债券市场、股票市场与汇率市场、债券市场与汇率市场两两动态变动,未形成稳定联动效应;期货市场与股票市场则呈正向相关的稳定联动效应;期货市场与汇率...     

人民币离岸金融市场的分析与研究

人民币离岸金融业务经过了而是多年的发展,从实践来看,虽然取得了一定的发展,但也因为各种原因,存在诸多的问题。未来中国应利用好离岸金融市场发展经济,巩固和提升国际金融地位,实现对外资本的扩张,最大限度地经济全球化浪潮中赚取客观的收益。同时离岸金融市场也是一把双刃剑,只要系统地设计监理措施,保证良好的信誉,中国也可以成功打造一个发达健全的人民币离岸金融中心。     

中美金融市场与金融机构的比较研究

次贷金融危机过后,美国金融市场和金融机构受到重创,而一直以来美国的金融市场和金融机构都是被认为高度成熟和有效率的,其金融模式为大多数国家效仿。虽然我国与美国在历史、经济体制和国家体制上都存在很大不同,但是作为一个金融不发达的国家,我国也不可避免的需要研究美国的金融模式,并从中得出启示,从而更好的发展我国的金融市场和金融机构。本文从整体的角度,先分析我国与美国的金融体制发展历史;其次对比我国与美国在金融市场和金融机构结构方面的不同,得出启示;最后,对我国未来的金融市场和金融机构的发展趋势做分析。     

国际碳金融市场期货的价格发现功能分析

全球变暖和极端的气候变化促使世界各国纷纷向低碳经济转型,碳金融就是低碳经济创新的产物。欧洲气候交易所作为全球最大的交易所,其基于项目市场的CDM交易机制所产生的CEA现货期货,以及联合履行机制所产生的EUA现货期货更是主导着碳金融市场。本文在前人的基础上,运用计量经济学实证的方法,通过协整分析,脉冲响应函数等方法,分析得出CER现货价格和期货价格之间虽然会有短暂的偏离的情况,但其长期均衡关系是存在的。同时在CER价格的形成上,期货价格起着主导作用。并且EUA和CER这两种主要碳排价格指标之间具有高度的相关性,存在着长期均衡的协整关系,同时CER期货价格引导EUA期货价格变化。最后通过整体实证的结果,为我国碳金融市场提出政策建议。     

涉外金融交易与金融市场开放研究

国际金融交易和涉外金融交易是极其复杂的金融交易,其交易结果、状况直接涉及一国的国际收支状况,影响一国内外均衡。在传统经济向现代经济转型中,各国均经历过或正在经历着金融市场由管制到开放的过程。许多国家实践表明资本市场过早开放使得国内经济潜在和积累的矛盾在宏现经济出现问题时彻底地爆发出来,酿成经济危机。在实施渐进式改革和开放的指导思想下,我国在金融市场开放中,实际上形成了符合中国实际的开放路径:设立涉外金融交易——逐步加大涉外金融交易的领域、规模——逐步增强涉外金融交易的市场性——逐步实现涉外金融交易向国际金融市场交易转变。     

发达省域战略性新兴产业竞争研究

战略性新兴产业可分为强环境驱动型与弱环境驱动型、准先导型与准支柱型。在对各新兴产业作全国性比较的基础上,发现发达省域可兼顾比较优势、竞争优势与不确定性的要求来优化产业定位。发达省域遭遇世界长波衰退、世界能源危机、中国亚军危机、房地产泡沫、冲动性投资、低劳动收入等环境因素对新兴产业形成的内外"双轮夹击"。构建"软硬双驱"竞争优势模型,并由此指出发达省域战略性新兴产业竞争优势升级的路径。     

Determinants of Internationalization Strategies of Emerging Market Firms: A Multilevel Approach

Recently, debates about uniqueness of emerging market firms’ (EMFs) internationalization strategies were a focus of research. Yet, findings regarding their determinants are mixed, and conclusions on how EMFs’ internationalization strategies can be theoretically explained vary greatly. This article elaborates on the underlying reasons for these inconclusive results and addresses them by the development of a multilevel theoretical framework allowing for a better understanding of integrative influence of institutional, sector, and firm-specific determinants of EMFs’ internationalization strategies. This framework is validated by evidence from Russia, and a multiple case study approach is adopted to investigate the determinants of internationalization strategies of Russian firms.     

Emerging Market Footholds and Knowledge: An Examination of New Product Launch Performance

As developed markets become more saturated, managers increasingly recognize the value of emerging markets as venues for growth opportunities. Yet, launching products into these markets is extremely risky due to weak institutional environments (e.g., lack of physical infrastructure), making success more uncertain. To alleviate this challenge, theory points to using emerging market footholds that yield market-specific knowledge. However, it is unclear whether knowledge is realized and, if so, what facets of harvested knowledge are effective in driving performance. Accordingly, we used data collected from a survey of business professionals to examine emerging market footholds and market-specific knowledge (i.e., customer, competitor, and logistics knowledge). Our results show that the extent of market presence held by an emerging market foothold is positively associated with all types of knowledge, yet only competitor and logistics knowledge—not customer knowledge—is positively associated with product launch performance. A supplemental sample of new product launches in developed markets revealed the opposite results wherein customer knowledge was the only significant predictor. Viewed collectively, the results suggest a market maturity threshold wherein logistics and competitive knowledge becomes less influential in driving performance, and customer knowledge becomes more influential.     

资本流入新兴市场国家:共同的难题、不同的风险

近年来,包括中国在内的亚洲和欧洲新兴市场国家和地区成为了国际资本流入的热点.资本流入带来好处的同时,也给这些国家带来了不同程度的经济风险.对比分析亚洲和欧洲新兴市场国家的资本流入情况表明,亚洲国家和欧洲国家经济特点上的差异使二者之间面临的风险有所不同,采取的对策和受到的制约也不尽相同.     

中国股票市场发展与货币需求实证研究

股票市场通过财富效应、风险分散效应、交易效应和替代效应等多种渠道影响货币需求,不同效应的影响方向是不同的。本文实证检验了我国股票市场对货币需求的综合效应,结果表明,股票市场的发展倾向于减少狭义和广义的货币需求,且对广义货币需求的影响小于对狭义货币需求的影响,原因可能在于证券保证金纳入广义货币统计口径后,提高了广义货币需求的稳定性。因此,货币政策既要注意货币需求总量的变化,更要关注货币需求的结构变化,利用选择性货币政策工具来防止股市泡沫膨胀。     

Economic Freedom and Cross‐Border Acquisitions from Emerging Markets into Developed Economies

Extending the home base perspective by considering investors' parent countries, this study examines the effect of economic freedom (EF) on emerging‐market enterprises' (EMEs) overseas acquisition completion in developed countries. Using a large data set of 5,174 cross‐border acquisition deals from ten major emerging markets (EMs) during 1985–2011, we find that (1) the probability of deal completion is positively associated with the levels of EF of the acquirers' countries, the acquirers' parent and the target; (2) the EF of the countries of acquirers' parents has a substitutive effect on that of the acquirers' countries; (3) the difference of EF between the targets' countries and the countries of acquirers' parents negatively influences deal completion; and (4) the difference of EF between the targets' countries and the acquirers' countries negatively influences deal completion. These findings have important theoretical implications for international business scholars, as well as practical implications for managers and for policymakers of EMEs that are active in foreign direct investment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

International Market Entry Strategies of Emerging Market MNEs: A Case Study of Qatar Telecom

ABSTRACT

Drawing on existing theoretical perspectives and previous research, this study essentially investigated the strategic motives, location choice, and international entry mode strategies of emerging market multinational enterprises based on a case study of a telecom company, Qatar Telecom (Qtel) from the Gulf Cooperation Council. Using empirical findings from the semi-structured interviews, this study has clearly indicated that the main strategic motivation behind Qtel's internationalization was essentially opportunity seeking in terms of enabling market development and generating higher return on investment. Although Qtel used different entry strategies depending on the characteristics of host country markets, the company is more in favor of mergers and acquisitions than greenfield investments.     

Channel Collaboration,Market Orientation and Performance Advantages: Discovering Developed and Emerging Markets

Abstract

Channel collaboration has occupied an increasingly prominent role in contemporary business strategy, and has been considered a key driver for providing value for the partnering firms involved. Drawing on the resource based theory of the firm, the present study aims to explore the effects of collaborative capability and market orientation on firms' performance advantages in the context of marketing channels. We also investigate whether the firms in developed and emerging markets significantly differ in their capability profiles. The data consists of 545 responses to a survey of small, medium-sized and large companies representing the grocery goods sector (manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers) in nine countries. In line with the theory, channel collaboration enhances positional and performance advantages of firms, and this collaboration is shaped by the type of economy adopted.     

The Influence of Business Ties and National Culture on Foreign-Subsidiary Capability Building in an Emerging Market

This study investigates the effects of formal and informal business ties on foreign-subsidiary capability-building activities. Data from 175 foreign subsidiaries in the Philippines shows that formal business ties are negatively related to capability building, whereas informal business ties are positively related to capability building. The authors also find that foreign-subsidiary home country assertiveness positively affects the positive relationship between informal business ties and capability building. These results indicate that in an emerging market, foreign-subsidiary capability building varies by the type of business ties being employed by a foreign subsidiary and that home-country assertiveness influences these outcomes.     

消费者心理研究在市场营销中的应用

我国已进入以消费者为中心的买方经济时代。这要求企业在营销过程中,要不断注意消费者潜在的心理因素的变化趋势,认真研究消费者心理的特点与规律,准确把握消费者心理,建立有效的市场营销策略,以便适应、引导、改善和优化消费行为,扩大企业经营规模,增加企业市场份额。