Temporal relationships among adjustable-rate mortgage indexes

This article investigates the linkage among six ARM indexes during the 1978–1989 period. Granger's direct causality test is used to examine their relationship within a rolling regression framework. The nonstationary properties of each index and selected pairs of indexes are investigated by using the unit root and cointegration tests. The empirical results confirmed their relationship has changed over this period and short-term rates lead the eleventh district cost-of-funds index. The implications of the empirical results from the perspectives of borrowers (ARM choice), lenders (pricing), and investors (security valuation) are also discussed.     

Estimating the marginal contribution of adjustable-rate mortgage selection to termination probabilities in a nested model

In this study we measure the marginal contribution of ARMs to termination probabilities. To do this we develop a modified nested-logit model of mortgage selection and termination and identify the role of risk aversity in the selection process. Simulations of termination probabilities under different economic scenarios indicate how ARMs decrease overall portfolio risk through declines in prepayment probabilities which more than offset the increases in default probabilities associated with them.     

Teaser rates in conventional adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) markets

This article examines the pricing of teaser rates on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). The theory indicates that lenders may offset teaser rates on ARMs through an increase in upfront fees or points, through looser life of loan rate caps, or through higher contract rates after the teaser has expired. Cross-sectional regression results fail to reject the null hypothesis that teaser ARMs are correctly priced.     

Borrower mobility, self-selection, and the relative prices of fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages

This paper analyzes the effect of borrower self-selection between fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages (FRMs and ARMS) on the pricing of FRMs. Self-selection occurs according to borrower mobility, with the most mobile borrowers favoring ARMS and less mobile borrowers choosing FRMs. The FRM interest rate depends on the average mobility of the FRM borrower pool, which determines the average duration of FRM loans. Comparative-static analysis of the equilibrium shows that any exogenous change that increases the relative attractiveness of FRMs enlarges the FRM borrower pool, which lowers its average mobility, shortens the duration of FRM loans, and thus reduces their price. Thus, an increase in the demand for FRMs actually reduces the FRM interest rate.     

从次贷危机看监管体制改革

美国次贷危机爆发至今已经一年有余,但次贷危机所造成的损失和影响却尚未见底。对市场机构监管缺位的背后,暴露出美国金融监管的体制性缺陷。面对挑战,美国人开始着手规划监管体制改革的总体思路,对整体金融市场的监管原则、监管主体、监管权限等都提出了较为详尽而有针对性的构想。其金融监管体制改革的动向,也给我们留下了某些重要的启示。     

The Information Content of Nonfinancial Performance Measures in the Airline Industry

This research extends the literature on nonfinancial performance measures (NFPMs) by assessing (1) the information content of a broader set of NFPMs and (2) whether NFPMs provide information not provided by financial performance measures (FPMs) from all previously identified FPM categories, rather than just earnings and book value. Specifically, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis results presented in this paper demonstrate that nineteen NFPMs of major airlines capture seven underlying constructs not captured by eighteen common FPMs. Additionally, this research develops reliable composite measures of the identified performance measure constructs, which prior research argues are superior to individual performance measures.     

Choosing between fixed-and adjustable-rate mortgages: The case of commercial mortgages

This article reports on the determinants of the ARM choice for commercial real estate projects. The theoretical literature suggests that commercial real estate projects are more likely to be financed with an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) if the project's income stream or value is expected to rise with inflation over time. The empirical model estimated is a structural probit probability model of the ARM choice. Our results demonstrate that commercial borrowers typically place great emphasis on relative interest-rate differentials when deciding which mortgage is best. We also find that commercial mortgage borrowers will ordinarily be reluctant to issue an ARM when the fixed interest rate is low.     

The Effect of CEO Extraversion on Analyst Forecasts: Stereotypes and Similarity Bias

In an experiment with professional analysts, we study their reliance on CEO personality information when producing financial forecasts. Drawing on social cognition research, we suggest analysts apply a stereotyping heuristic, believing that extraverted CEOs are more successful. The between‐subjects results with CEO extraversion as treatment variable confirm that analysts issue more favorable forecasts (earnings per share, long‐term earnings growth, and target price) for firms led by extraverted CEOs. Increased forecast uncertainty leads to even stronger stereotyping. Additionally, personality similarity between analysts and CEOs has a large effect on financial forecasts. Analysts issue more positive forecasts for CEOs similar to themselves.     

住房抵押贷款证券化之必要

住房抵押贷款证券化是指银行等金融机构发放住房抵押贷款后,把所持有的住房抵押贷款债权转让给一家中介机构(特设交易载体SPV),该机构以其收购的抵押贷款为基础在资本市场上发行证券、实现融资的行为,这样一种资产证券化的方式在中国有发展的必要性     

丹麦按揭系统稳健运作的经验

丹麦房贷市场是世界第三大抵押债券市场,其独特的按揭系统有着200多年的历史,是世界上最古老的、运行最稳定的房屋抵押贷款系统之一。丹麦模式以高透明度、低信贷风险和低借贷成本而闻名于世,在历次金融危机中稳如磐石,对社会经济的稳定发展发挥了重要作用。文章介绍了丹麦按揭系统稳健运作的成功经验,以期为我国房地产市场的长期稳定发展提供借鉴。     

The pricing of adjustable rate mortgage contracts

This article analyzes the structure of ARM contracts and the pricing of their component features, based on the view of ARMs as a complex bundle. Unlike previous studies, which have generally relied on option-based simulation techniques, our analysis specifies a microeconomic model of the lender as a profit-maximizer which is then tested using firm-specific data. The empirical results, which are consistent with the microeconomic model, indicate that the lender acts as a profit-maximizing firm in pricing the features of the ARM contract. Furthermore, the results suggest that while the interest-rate cap parameters dominate in the pricing of ARMs, other features are also important. Thus, theoretical and empirical ARM pricing models should embrace other features of the contract besides the cap parameters.     

The cultural affinity hypothesis and mortgage lending decisions

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the cultural affinity hypothesis put forth by Calomiris, et al. (1994) in the mortgage lending market. This hypothesis implies that white loan officers, because of a lack of familiarity with minority applicants, will rely more heavily on characteristics that can be observed at low cost (e.g., objective loan application measures) in evaluating the creditworthiness of minority applicants relative to white applicants. Using a cleansed sample of 1,991 loan applications drawn from data collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, the results of the analysis were consistent with the cultural affinity hypothesis. In particular, we found that marginal black and Hispanic applicants appeared to be held to higher quantitative standards on such objective factors as credit history and debt obligation ratios than were similarly situated marginal white applicants.     

The income elasticity of mortgage loan demand

One explanation for the emergence of the housing market bubble and the subprime crisis is that increases in individuals’ income led to higher increases in the amount of mortgage loans demanded, especially for the middle class. This hypothesis translates to an increase in the income elasticity of mortgage loan demand before 2007. Using applicant‐level data, we test this hypothesis and find that the income elasticity of mortgage loan demand in fact declines in the years before 2007, especially for the mid‐ and lower‐middle income groups. Our finding implies that increases in house prices were not matched by increases in loan applicants’ income.     

The role of securitization in mortgage renegotiation

We study the effects of securitization on renegotiation of distressed residential mortgages over the current financial crisis. Unlike prior studies, we employ unique data that directly observe lender renegotiation actions and cover more than 60% of the U.S. mortgage market. Exploiting within-servicer variation in these data, we find that bank-held loans are 26–36% more likely to be renegotiated than comparable securitized mortgages (4.2–5.7% in absolute terms). Also, modifications of bank-held loans are more efficient: conditional on a modification, bank-held loans have 9% lower post-modification default rates (3.5% in absolute terms). Our findings support the view that frictions introduced by securitization create a significant challenge to effective renegotiation of residential loans. We also provide evidence supporting the affordability focus of recent policy actions, such as the Home Affordability Modification Program.     

The role of prepayment penalties in mortgage loans

We study the effect of mortgage prepayment penalties on borrowers’ prepayments and delinquencies by exploiting a 2007 reform in Italy that reduced penalties on outstanding mortgages and banned penalties on newly-issued mortgages. Using a unique dataset of mortgages issued by a large Italian lender, we provide evidence that: 1) before the reform, mortgages issued to riskier borrowers included larger penalties; 2) higher prepayment penalties decreased borrowers’ prepayments; and 3) higher prepayment penalties did not affect borrowers’ delinquencies. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that prepayment penalties affected mortgage pricing, as well as prepayments and delinquencies through borrowers’ mortgage selection at origination, most notably for riskier borrowers.     

The real consequences of bank mortgage lending standards

We examine the real effects of changes in bank mortgage loan underwriting standards by combining responses to the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, application information from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, and local housing market measures over 1990 to 2013. Tightened standards are associated with a 1 percentage point increase in denial rates and a 5% fall in loan issuance, controlling for applicant pool changes, but no change for predominantly-securitizing banks. In areas with more exposure to banks that have tightened standards, mortgage delinquency rates, house prices, new home sales, and residential construction employment fall substantially.     

住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险管理研究

从现代金融和风险管理角度看,住房抵押贷款提前还贷对商业银行是一种期权性风险,对其收取违约金并非国际惯例,也并不是有效的风险补偿方式。商业银行应适应市场竞争需要,接受风险转嫁并提供风险管理服务,运用风险定价技术在按揭交易价格中对提前还贷风险进行补偿。对于已承担的风险,商业银行应构建抵押贷款提前还贷的数据库,通过表内对冲和市场对冲,推出多样化的住房抵押贷款方式,积极推进住房抵押贷款证券化,从而最终增强银行的盈利来源和核心竞争力。     

The use of credit scoring in the mortgage industry

In times of increased focus on risk management, acquiring or growing comparatively low risk mortgage portfolios has become an attractive value proposition. Banks that pursue an aggressive growth strategy in this sector, do, however, require risk control mechanisms that enable them to make a clear judgment on how great a growth appetite they can afford to have in order to still grow profitably. Moreover, under Basel II, the proper quantification of mortgage portfolio risk tends to help the release of own capital, because the mortgage portfolio is one of those portfolios where the relative benefits of internal ratings-based approaches compared with the standardised approach are greatest. Credit scoring models in general, and credit scorecards in particular, are suitable methods for quantifying the risk of an individual mortgage applicant or mortgage customer. In addition to score card development, this paper reviews alternative scoring model types that could be used for mortgage scoring. It presents reasons why it is beneficial to build such models in-house, before focusing on the steps necessary for building a mortgage scorecard. Finally, it discusses the important topics of creating segments, deploying models and eventually monitoring models.     

Financial and nonfinancial performance measures: How do they affect job satisfaction?

Recent interest on the use of nonfinancial measures (e.g. in the Balanced Scorecard) generally assumes that such measures are essential to overcome the inadequacies of financial measures. However, it remains unclear (1) if the behavioural effects of these nonfinancial measures are different from those of financial measures; and (2) whether these effects are influenced by the relative importance of nonfinancial measures vis-à-vis financial measures. This study hypothesises that the use of performance measures for performance evaluation will significantly affect managers' job satisfaction. However, these effects are indirect through the managers' perceptions of the fairness of these measures and the interpersonal trust these measures promote. Based on a sample of 70 managers, these expectations are supported by the results. More importantly, the results also suggest that (1) the process by which nonfinancial measures affect employee job satisfaction is not different from that of financial measures, and (2) the relative importance of nonfinancial measures vis-à-vis financial measures has no significant effect on employee job satisfaction. These results may have important theoretical and practical implications.     

Subprime mortgage funding and liquidity risk

In this article, we use actuarial methods to solve a nonlinear stochastic optimal liquidity risk management problem for subprime originators with deposit inflow rates and marketable securities allocation as controls. The main objective is to minimize liquidity risk in the form of funding and credit crunch risk in an incomplete market. In order to accomplish this, we construct a stochastic model that incorporates originator mortgage and deposit reference processes. Finally, numerical examples that illustrate the main modeling and optimization features of the article are provided.